Sex Differences in Hypertension and Its Management Throughout Life.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hypertension and uncontrolled hypertension may differ by age and sex. METHODS: We included participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study at seven study visits over 33 years (visit 1: 15 636 participants; mean age, 54 years; 55% women), estimating sex differences in prevalence of hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥130 mm Hg; diastolic blood pressure ≥80 mm Hg; or self-reported antihypertension medication use) and uncontrolled hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg) using unadjusted and comorbidity-adjusted models. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension increased from 40% (ages, 43-46 years) to 93% (ages, 91-94 years). Within hypertensive individuals, the prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension was higher in men (33%) than women (23%) at ages 43 to 46 years but became higher in women than men starting at ages 61 to 64, with 56% of women and 40% men having uncontrolled hypertension at ages 91 to 94. This sex difference was not explained by differences in coronary heart disease, diabetes, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, number of antihypertension medications, classes of medications, or adherence to medications. In both sexes, uncontrolled hypertension was associated with a higher risk for chronic kidney disease progression (hazard ratio, 1.5 [1.2-1.9]; P=4.5×10-4), heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.6 [1.4-2.0]; P=8.1×10-7), stroke (hazard ratio, 2.1 [1.6-2.8]; P=1.8×10-8), and mortality (hazard ratio, 1.5 [1.3-1.6]; P=6.2×10-19). CONCLUSIONS: Sex differences in the prevalence of hypertension and uncontrolled hypertension vary by age, with the latter having implications for health throughout the life course.

Opioid Prescriptions for US Patients Undergoing Long-Term Dialysis or with Kidney Transplant from 2011 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Pain is important for patients with kidney failure, but opioid medication prescriptions are associated with morbidity and mortality. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued opioid prescription guidelines in 2016 and 2022, associated with dramatically decreased prescription rates in the United States. It is critical to know if nationwide opioid prescription rates for patients with kidney failure have decreased. METHODS: We analyzed the USRDS database from 2011 to 2020 to describe trends in the proportion of ESKD patients who received one or more, or long-term opioid prescriptions, examined factors associated with long-term opioid prescriptions, and evaluated associations of all-cause death with short-term or long-term opioid prescriptions. RESULTS: From 2011-2022, the percentage of patients with kidney failure (dialysis and kidney transplant) who received at least one or more, or who had received long-term opioid medication prescriptions decreased steadily, from 60% to 42%, and from 23% to 13%, respectively (both P for trend <0.001). The largest reductions in prescription rates were for hydrocodone and oxycodone. Similar trends existed for dialysis and kidney transplant patients. Women, the poor and those in rural settings were more likely to receive long-term opioid prescriptions. Prescription rates were highest in White patients and those 45 to 64 years old. Short-term and long-term opioid medication prescriptions were associated with higher mortality in both dialysis and kidney transplant patients. CONCLUSIONS: ESKD patients' opioid prescription rates decreased between 2011 and 2020. Higher mortality risk was associated with both short-term and long-term opioid prescriptions. Mortality risk was monotonically associated with morphine milligram equivalents in patients with kidney failure who received long-term opioid prescriptions.

Urine Biomarkers of Kidney Tubule Health and Risk of Incident CKD in Persons Without Diabetes: The ARIC, MESA, and REGARDS Studies.

Rationale & Objective: Tubulointerstitial damage is a feature of early chronic kidney disease (CKD), but current clinical tests capture it poorly. Urine biomarkers of tubulointerstitial health may identify risk of CKD. Study Design: Prospective cohort (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC]) and case-cohort (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA] and Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke [REGARDS]). Setting & Participants: Adults with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and without diabetes in the ARIC, REGARDS, and MESA studies. Exposures: Baseline urine monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), alpha-1-microglobulin (α1m), kidney injury molecule-1, epidermal growth factor, and chitinase-3-like protein 1. Outcome: Incident CKD or end-stage kidney disease. Analytical Approach: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for each cohort; meta-analysis of results from all 3 cohorts. Results: 872 ARIC participants (444 cases of incident CKD), 636 MESA participants (158 cases), and 924 REGARDS participants (488 cases) were sampled. Across cohorts, mean age ranged from 60 ± 10 to 63 ± 8 years, and baseline eGFR ranged from 88 ± 13 to 91 ± 14 mL/min/1.73 m2. In ARIC, higher concentrations of urine MCP-1, α1m, and kidney injury molecule-1 were associated with incident CKD. In MESA, higher concentration of urine MCP-1 and lower concentration of epidermal growth factor were each associated with incident CKD. In REGARDS, none of the biomarkers were associated with incident CKD. In meta-analysis of all 3 cohorts, each 2-fold increase α1m concentration was associated with incident CKD (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.08-1.31). Limitations: Observational design susceptible to confounding; competing risks during long follow-up period; meta-analysis limited to 3 cohorts. Conclusions: In 3 combined cohorts of adults without prevalent CKD or diabetes, higher urine α1m concentration was independently associated with incident CKD. 4 biomarkers were associated with incident CKD in at least 1 of the cohorts when analyzed individually. Kidney tubule health markers might inform CKD risk independent of eGFR and albuminuria.

This study analyzed 3 cohorts (ARIC, MESA, and REGARDS) of adults without diabetes or prevalent chronic kidney disease (CKD) to determine the associations of 5 urinary biomarkers of kidney tubulointerstitial health with incident CKD, independent of traditional measures of kidney health. Meta-analysis of results from all 3 cohorts suggested that higher baseline levels of urine alpha-1-microglobulin were associated with incident CKD at follow-up. Results from individual cohorts suggested that in addition to alpha-1-microglobulin, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, kidney injury molecule-1, and epidermal growth factor may also be associated with the development of CKD. These findings underscore the importance of kidney tubule interstitial health in defining risk of CKD independent of creatinine and urine albumin.

Consistency of metabolite associations with measured glomerular filtration rate in children and adults.

Background: There is interest in identifying novel filtration markers that lead to more accurate GFR estimates than current markers (creatinine and cystatin C) and are more consistent across demographic groups. We hypothesize that large-scale metabolomics can identify serum metabolites that are strongly influenced by glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and are more consistent across demographic variables than creatinine, which would be promising filtration markers for future investigation. Methods: We evaluated the consistency of associations between measured GFR (mGFR) and 887 common, known metabolites quantified by an untargeted chromatography- and spectroscopy-based metabolomics platform (Metabolon) performed on frozen blood samples from 580 participants in Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD), 674 participants in Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study and 962 participants in African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK). We evaluated metabolite-mGFR correlation association with metabolite class, molecular weight, assay platform and measurement coefficient of variation (CV). Among metabolites with strong negative correlations with mGFR (r < -0.5), we assessed additional variation by age (height in children), sex, race and body mass index (BMI). Results: A total of 561 metabolites (63%) were negatively correlated with mGFR. Correlations with mGFR were highly consistent across study, sex, race and BMI categories (correlation of metabolite-mGFR correlations between 0.88 and 0.95). Amino acids, carbohydrates and nucleotides were more often negatively correlated with mGFR compared with lipids, but there was no association with metabolite molecular weight, liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry platform and measurement CV. Among 114 metabolites with strong negative associations with mGFR (r < -0.5), 27 were consistently not associated with age (height in children), sex or race. Conclusions: The majority of metabolite-mGFR correlations were negative and consistent across sex, race, BMI and study. Metabolites with consistent strong negative correlations with mGFR and non-association with demographic variables may represent candidate markers to improve estimation of GFR.

Incident heart failure in chronic kidney disease: proteomics informs biology and risk stratification.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Incident heart failure (HF) among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) incurs hospitalizations that burden patients and health care systems. There are few preventative therapies, and the Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) perform poorly in the setting of CKD. New drug targets and better risk stratification are urgently needed. METHODS: In this analysis of incident HF, SomaScan V4.0 (4638 proteins) was analysed in 2906 participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) with validation in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The primary outcome was 14-year incident HF (390 events); secondary outcomes included 4-year HF (183 events), HF with reduced ejection fraction (137 events), and HF with preserved ejection fraction (165 events). Mendelian randomization and Gene Ontology were applied to examine causality and pathways. The performance of novel multi-protein risk models was compared to the PCP-HF risk score. RESULTS: Over 200 proteins were associated with incident HF after adjustment for estimated glomerular filtration rate at P < 1 × 10-5. After adjustment for covariates including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, 17 proteins remained associated at P < 1 × 10-5. Mendelian randomization associations were found for six proteins, of which four are druggable targets: FCG2B, IGFBP3, CAH6, and ASGR1. For the primary outcome, the C-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the 48-protein model in CRIC was 0.790 (0.735, 0.844) vs. 0.703 (0.644, 0.762) for the PCP-HF model (P = .001). C-statistic (95% CI) for the protein model in ARIC was 0.747 (0.707, 0.787). CONCLUSIONS: Large-scale proteomics reveal novel circulating protein biomarkers and potential mediators of HF in CKD. Proteomic risk models improve upon the PCP-HF risk score in this population.

Comparative CKD risk prediction using homocitrulline and carbamylated albumin: two circulating markers of protein carbamylation.

BACKGROUND: Protein carbamylation, a post-translational protein modification primarily driven by urea, independently associates with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CKD. Biomarkers used to quantify carbamylation burden have mainly included carbamylated albumin (C-Alb) and homocitrulline (HCit, carbamylated lysine). In this study, we aimed to compare the prognostic utility of these two markers in order to facilitate comparisons of existing studies employing either marker alone, and to inform future carbamylation studies. METHODS: Both serum C-Alb and free HCit levels were assayed from the same timepoint in 1632 individuals with CKD stages 2-4 enrolled in the prospective Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study. Adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess risks for the outcomes of death (primary) and end stage kidney disease (ESKD) using each marker. C-statistics, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement were used to compare the prognostic value of each marker. RESULTS: Participant demographics included mean (SD) age 59 (11) years; 702 (43%) females; 700 (43%) white. C-Alb and HCit levels were positively correlated with one another (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.64). Higher C-Alb and HCit levels showed similar increased risk of death (e.g., the adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for death in the 4th carbamylation quartile compared to the 1st was 1.90 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-2.66) for C-Alb, and 1.89 [1.27-2.81] for HCit; and on a continuous scale, the adjusted HR for death using C-Alb was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.39] per standard deviation increase, and 1.27 [1.10-1.46] using HCit). Both biomarkers also had similar HRs for ESKD. The C-statistics were similar when adding each carbamylation biomarker to base models (e.g., for mortality models, the C-statistic was 0.725 [0.707-0.743] with C-Alb and 0.725 [0.707-0.743] with HCit, both compared to a base model 0.723). Similarities were also observed for the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement metrics. CONCLUSIONS: C-Alb and HCit had similar performance across multiple prognostic assessments. The markers appear readily comparable in CKD epidemiological studies.

Metabolites Associated With Uremic Symptoms in Patients With CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The toxins that contribute to uremic symptoms in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are unknown. We sought to apply complementary statistical modeling approaches to data from untargeted plasma metabolomic profiling to identify solutes associated with uremic symptoms in patients with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 1,761 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) participants with CKD not treated with dialysis. PREDICTORS: Measurement of 448 known plasma metabolites. OUTCOMES: The uremic symptoms of fatigue, anorexia, pruritus, nausea, paresthesia, and pain were assessed by single items on the Kidney Disease Quality of Life-36 instrument. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable adjusted linear regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator linear regression, and random forest models were used to identify metabolites associated with symptom severity. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, metabolites selected in at least 2 of the 3 modeling approaches were deemed "overall significant." RESULTS: Participant mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 43mL/min/1.73m2, with 44% self-identifying as female and 41% as non-Hispanic Black. The prevalence of uremic symptoms ranged from 22% to 55%. We identified 17 metabolites for which a higher level was associated with greater severity of at least one uremic symptom and 9 metabolites inversely associated with uremic symptom severity. Many of these metabolites exhibited at least a moderate correlation with estimated glomerular filtration rate (Pearson's r≥0.5), and some were also associated with the risk of developing kidney failure or death in multivariable adjusted Cox regression models. LIMITATIONS: Lack of a second independent cohort for external validation of our findings. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolomic profiling was used to identify multiple solutes associated with uremic symptoms in adults with CKD, but future validation and mechanistic studies are needed. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Individuals living with chronic kidney disease (CKD) often experience symptoms related to CKD, traditionally called uremic symptoms. It is likely that CKD results in alterations in the levels of numerous circulating substances that, in turn, cause uremic symptoms; however, the identity of these solutes is not known. In this study, we used metabolomic profiling in patients with CKD to gain insights into the pathophysiology of uremic symptoms. We identified 26 metabolites whose levels were significantly associated with at least one of the symptoms of fatigue, anorexia, itchiness, nausea, paresthesia, and pain. The results of this study lay the groundwork for future research into the biological causes of symptoms in patients with CKD.

Age- and Race-Specific Changes in ESKD Incidence over Four Decades.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: ESKD incidence has changed substantially in the past four decades, but differences by age and race have been unexplored. Using data from the United States Renal Data System, we found that ESKD incidence rose for Black and White teenagers, adults, and older adults for two decades beginning in 1980. Growth in incidence slowed for most groups by 1993, and by 2006, the annual percent change (APC) in ESKD incidence had declined for all groups, except White adults, for whom rates continued to rise. By 2019, ESKD incidence among Black and White adolescents nearly returned to 1980 levels, but no other group achieved that degree of improvement. Nonetheless, the ESKD incidence rate among Black American patients exceeds that of White patients in every age group. Distinct patterns in ESKD incidence among patients of different age, sex, and racial groups are shown. These findings could reflect changes in dialysis acceptance rates, access to preventive health care, incidence of diabetes mellitus, implementation of evidence-based guidelines for treatment of CKD, or other unrecognized factors. There may be population-specific opportunities to change the growth of the US ESKD population and address current racial disparities. BACKGROUND: Substantial changes in ESKD incidence over four decades among Black and White Americans of different ages have been incompletely explored. METHODS: We analyzed United States Renal Data System data from 1980 to 2019 to determine ESKD incidence trends among Black and White adolescent (13-17 years), adult (18-64 years), and older adult (≥65) populations. We used the National Cancer Institute Joinpoint Regression Program to estimate annual percent change (APC) in ESKD incidence and to define points in time where a statistically significant change in APC slope occurred for each group. RESULTS: ESKD incidence rose after 1980 for all groups, although the trends differed ( P < 0.001). Growth in incidence slowed for most by 1993, and by 2006, the APC in ESKD incidence had declined for all groups, except White adults, for whom rates continued to rise ( P < 0.05). By 2019, ESKD incidence among Black and White adolescents nearly returned to 1980 levels, but no other group achieved that degree of improvement. Nonetheless, the ESKD incidence among Black American patients exceeds that of White patients in every age group. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct patterns in ESKD incidence among patients of different age, sex, and racial groups are shown. These findings could reflect changes in dialysis acceptance rates, access to preventive health care, incidence of diabetes mellitus, implementation of evidence-based guidelines for treatment of CKD, or other unrecognized factors. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/JASN/2024_03_13_ASN0000000000000310.mp3.

Epidemiology of Infantile Ureteropelvic Junction Obstruction in the US.

OBJECTIVE: To describe sex- and diagnosis-specific comorbidities, outcomes, and secular trends associated with ureteropelvic junction obstruction (UPJO) in a large, real-world population diagnosed with hydronephrosis in infancy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified all infants ≤1 year old with ≥1 claim in the Optum Clinformatics 2007-2020 nationwide population database and used univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses to estimate associations of demographic and clinical characteristics of infants with a UPJO diagnosis with surgical status. RESULTS: Of 22,349 infants with hydronephrosis (1.1% of infants; males-1.4%, females-0.7%), 1722 (7.7%; 7.9%-males, 7.2%-females) had UPJO. Follow-up was ≥1 year in 1198 (70%) and ≥3 years in 555 (32%) cases, and UPJO repair was performed in 542 children (31.5%; 32.3%-males, 29.5%-females); 77.7% within 1 year and 97.3% within 3 years. UPJO repair was associated with prior urinary tract infection (UTI) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-1.76) and South (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.14-1.78) or Midwest (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.26-2.04) geographic region but did not change over time. CONCLUSION: This population-based study provides a real-world view of postnatally diagnosed hydronephrosis, focusing on UPJO, for which 522 cases (∼1/3) had ≥3 years continuous coverage. UPJO-associated comorbidities were more common in females, and the frequencies of UPJO-associated surgery and comorbidities were higher than in other studies. Other than UTI, no other associated kidney or urinary tract diagnoses were associated with UPJO repair. We identified unique sex- and diagnosis-specific differences in associated comorbidities and interventions in children diagnosed with UPJO in the first year of life.

The design and baseline characteristics for the HOPE Consortium Trial to reduce pain and opioid use in hemodialysis.

The HOPE Consortium Trial to Reduce Pain and Opioid Use in Hemodialysis (HOPE Trial) is a multicenter randomized trial addressing chronic pain among patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis for end-stage kidney disease. The trial uses a sequential, multiple assignment design with a randomized component for all participants (Phase 1) and a non-randomized component for a subset of participants (Phase 2). During Phase 1, participants are randomized to Pain Coping Skills Training (PCST), an intervention designed to increase self-efficacy for managing pain, or Usual Care. PCST consists of weekly, live, coach-led cognitive behavioral therapy sessions delivered by video- or tele-conferencing for 12 weeks followed by daily interactive voice response sessions delivered by telephone for an additional 12 weeks. At 24 weeks (Phase 2), participants in both the PCST and Usual Care groups taking prescription opioid medications at an average dose of ≥20 morphine milligram equivalents per day are offered buprenorphine, a partial opioid agonist with a more favorable safety profile than full-agonist opioids. All participants are followed for 36 weeks. The primary outcome is pain interference ascertained, for the primary analysis, at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes include additional patient-reported measures and clinical outcomes including falls, hospitalizations, and death. Exploratory outcomes include acceptability, tolerability, and efficacy of buprenorphine. The enrollment target of 640 participants was met 27 months after trial initiation. The findings of the trial will inform the management of chronic pain, a common and challenging issue for patients treated with maintenance hemodialysis. NCT04571619.

Plasma Metabolomics of Dietary Intake of Protein-Rich Foods and Kidney Disease Progression in Children.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence regarding the efficacy of a low-protein diet for patients with CKD is inconsistent and recommending a low-protein diet for pediatric patients is controversial. There is also a lack of objective biomarkers of dietary intake. The purpose of this study was to identify plasma metabolites associated with dietary intake of protein and to assess whether protein-related metabolites are associated with CKD progression. METHODS: Nontargeted metabolomics was conducted in plasma samples from 484 Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) participants. Multivariable linear regression estimated the cross-sectional association between 949 known, nondrug metabolites and dietary intake of total protein, animal protein, plant protein, chicken, dairy, nuts and beans, red and processed meat, fish, and eggs, adjusting for demographic, clinical, and dietary covariates. Cox proportional hazards models assessed the prospective association between protein-related metabolites and CKD progression defined as the initiation of kidney replacement therapy or 50% eGFR reduction, adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-seven (26%) children experienced CKD progression during 5 years of follow-up. Sixty metabolites were significantly associated with dietary protein intake. Among the 60 metabolites, 10 metabolites were significantly associated with CKD progression (animal protein: n = 1, dairy: n = 7, red and processed meat: n = 2, nuts and beans: n = 1), including one amino acid, one cofactor and vitamin, 4 lipids, 2 nucleotides, one peptide, and one xenobiotic. 1-(1-enyl-palmitoyl)-2-oleoyl-glycerophosphoethanolamine (GPE, P-16:0/18:1) was positively associated with dietary intake of red and processed meat, and a doubling of its abundance was associated with 88% higher risk of CKD progression. 3-ureidopropionate was inversely associated with dietary intake of red and processed meat, and a doubling of its abundance was associated with 48% lower risk of CKD progression. CONCLUSIONS: Untargeted plasma metabolomic profiling revealed metabolites associated with dietary intake of protein and CKD progression in a pediatric population.

Association of Obesity, Metabolic Syndrome, and Diabetes With Urinary Incontinence and Chronic Kidney Disease: Analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2020.

PURPOSE: Diabetes and obesity, components of the metabolic syndrome (MetS), are risk factors for urinary incontinence (UI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). We interrogated US population-based data to explore independent, sex-specific associations between nondiabetic MetS, with and without obesity, and UI and/or CKD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from 8586 males and 8420 females ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine associations of UI or CKD with diabetes and 4 nondiabetic obesity/metabolic phenotypes: non-MetS/nonobese, MetS/nonobese, non-MetS/obese, and MetS/obese. Multinominal logistic regression models were used to assess associations of co-occurring UI/CKD with obesity/metabolic phenotypes. RESULTS: Male MetS/obese participants had increased odds of any UI (1.25; 95% CI 1.00-1.57) and urgency UI (1.36; 1.03-1.80), compared with non-MetS/nonobese participants. Female MetS/obese participants had increased odds of any UI (2.16; 95% CI 1.76-2.66), stress UI (1.51; 1.21-1.87), and mixed UI (1.66; 1.31-2.11) compared with non-MetS/nonobese participants. The odds of co-occurring UI/CKD were increased relative to either condition alone in persons with diabetes, and in males with MetS/obese phenotypes and females with MetS phenotypes as compared to same sex participants with neither obesity nor MetS. CONCLUSIONS: We found novel associations between MetS/obese and urgency UI in males without diabetes, and between SUI and both MetS and obesity in females without diabetes. Odds estimates for UI/CKD were increased by existing obesity or MetS as compared to those for UI or CKD alone. Improved understanding of modifiable factors associated with UI will inform prevention and treatment opportunities.

Proteomics of CKD progression in the chronic renal insufficiency cohort.

Progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) portends myriad complications, including kidney failure. In this study, we analyze associations of 4638 plasma proteins among 3235 participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study with the primary outcome of 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or kidney failure over 10 years. We validate key findings in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities study. We identify 100 circulating proteins that are associated with the primary outcome after multivariable adjustment, using a Bonferroni statistical threshold of significance. Individual protein associations and biological pathway analyses highlight the roles of bone morphogenetic proteins, ephrin signaling, and prothrombin activation. A 65-protein risk model for the primary outcome has excellent discrimination (C-statistic[95%CI] 0.862 [0.835, 0.889]), and 14/65 proteins are druggable targets. Potentially causal associations for five proteins, to our knowledge not previously reported, are supported by Mendelian randomization: EGFL9, LRP-11, MXRA7, IL-1 sRII and ILT-2. Modifiable protein risk markers can guide therapeutic drug development aimed at slowing CKD progression.

Plasma Biomarkers and Incident CKD Among Individuals Without Diabetes.

Rationale & Objective: Biomarkers of kidney disease progression have been identified in individuals with diabetes and underlying chronic kidney disease (CKD). Whether or not these markers are associated with the development of CKD in a general population without diabetes or CKD is not well established. Study Design: Prospective observational cohort. Setting & Participants: In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study, 948 participants were studied. Exposures: The baseline plasma biomarkers of kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR-1), tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (TNFR-2), and human cartilage glycoprotein-39 (YKL-40) measured in 1996-1998. Outcome: Incident CKD after 15 years of follow-up defined as ≥40% estimated glomerular filtration rate decline to <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or dialysis dependence through United States Renal Data System linkage. Analytical Approach: Logistic regression and C statistics. Results: There were 523 cases of incident CKD. Compared with a random sample of 425 controls, there were greater odds of incident CKD per 2-fold higher concentration of KIM-1 (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.25-1.78), suPAR (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.74-3.84), TNFR-1 (OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.58-3.09), TNFR-2 (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.37-3.04). After adjustment for all biomarkers, KIM-1 (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.19-1.71), and suPAR (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.18-2.92) remained associated with incident CKD. Compared with traditional risk factors, the addition of all 6 biomarkers improved the C statistic from 0.695-0.731 (P < 0.01) and using the observed risk of 12% for incident CKD, the predicted risk gradient changed from 5%-40% (for the 1st-5th quintile) to 4%-44%. Limitations: Biomarkers and creatinine were measured at one time point. Conclusions: Higher levels of KIM-1, suPAR, TNFR-1, and TNFR-2 were associated with higher odds of incident CKD among individuals without diabetes. Plain-Language Summary: For people with diabetes or kidney disease, several biomarkers have been shown to be associated with worsening kidney disease. Whether these biomarkers have prognostic significance in people without diabetes or kidney disease is less studied. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we followed individuals without diabetes or kidney disease for an average of 15 years after biomarker measurement to see if these biomarkers were associated with the development of kidney disease. We found that elevated levels of KIM-1, suPAR, TNFR-1, and TNFR-2 were associated with the development of kidney disease. These biomarkers may help identify individuals who would benefit from interventions to prevent the development of kidney disease.