The clinical spectrum of HbSC sickle cell disease-not a benign condition.

Sickle cell disease (SCD) includes a group of heterogenous disorders that result in significant morbidities. HbSS is the most common type of SCD and HbSC is the second most common type of SCD. The prevalence of HbSC disease in the United States and United Kingdom is ~1 in 7174 births and 1 in 6174 births respectively. Despite its frequency, however, HbSC disease has been insufficiently studied and was historically categorized as a more 'mild' form of SCD. We conducted this study of HbSC disease as part of the NHLBI funded Sickle Cell Disease Implementation Consortium (SCDIC). The SCDIC registry included 2282 individuals with SCD, ages 15-45 years of whom 502 (22%) had HbSC disease. Compared with people with sickle cell anaemia (SCA), the study found that people with HbSC disease had a higher frequency of splenomegaly (n (%) = 169 (33.7) vs. 392 (22.1)) and retinopathy (n (%) = 116 (23.1) vs. 189 (10.6)). A Many people with HbSC also had avascular necrosis (n (%) = 112 (22.3)), pulmonary embolism (n (%) = 43 (8.6)) and acute chest syndrome (n (%) = 228 (45.4)) demonstrating significant disease severity. HbSC disease is more clinically severe than was previously recognized and deserves additional evaluation and targeted treatments.

Evaluating the implementation of a multi-level mHealth study to improve hydroxyurea utilization in sickle cell disease.

Background: Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) is a progressive genetic disease that causes organ damage and reduces longevity. Hydroxyurea is an underutilized evidence-based medication that reduces complications and improves survival in SCD. In a multi-site clinical trial, part of the NIH-funded Sickle Cell Disease Implementation Consortium (SCDIC), we evaluate the implementation of a multi-level and multi-component mobile health (mHealth) patient and provider intervention to target the determinants and context of low hydroxyurea use. Given the complexity of the intervention and contextual variability in its implementation, we combined different behavioral and implementation theories, models, and frameworks to facilitate the evaluation of the intervention implementation. In this report, we describe engagement with stakeholders, planning of the implementation process, and final analytical plan to evaluate the implementation outcomes. Methods: During 19 meetings, a 16-member multidisciplinary SCDIC implementation team created, conceived, and implemented a project that utilized Intervention Mapping to guide designing an intervention and its evaluation plan. The process included five steps: (1) needs assessment of low hydroxyurea utilization, (2) conceptual framework development, (3) intervention design process, (4) selection of models and frameworks, and (5) designing evaluation of the intervention implementation. Results: Behavioral theories guided the needs assessment and the design of the multi-level mHealth intervention. In designing the evaluation approach, we combined two implementation frameworks to best account for the contextual complexity at the organizational, provider, and patient levels: (1) the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) that details barriers and facilitators to implementing the mHealth intervention at multiple levels (users, organization, intervention characteristics, broader community), and (2) the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), a conceptual model specific for explaining the intent to use new information technology (including mHealth). The Reach Effectiveness Adoption Implementation and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework was used to measure the outcomes. Discussion: Our research project can serve as a case study of a potential approach to combining different models/frameworks to help organize and plan the evaluation of interventions to increase medication adherence. The description of our process may serve as a blueprint for future studies developing and testing new strategies to foster evidence-based treatments for individuals living with SCD.

American Society of Hematology 2020 guidelines for sickle cell disease: prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of cerebrovascular disease in children and adults.

BACKGROUND: Central nervous system (CNS) complications are among the most common, devastating sequelae of sickle cell disease (SCD) occurring throughout the lifespan. OBJECTIVE: These evidence-based guidelines of the American Society of Hematology are intended to support the SCD community in decisions about prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of the most common neurological morbidities in SCD. METHODS: The Mayo Evidence-Based Practice Research Program supported the guideline development process, including updating or performing systematic evidence reviews. The panel used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach, including GRADE evidence-to-decision frameworks, to assess evidence and make recommendations. RESULTS: The panel placed a higher value on maintaining cognitive function than on being alive with significantly less than baseline cognitive function. The panel developed 19 recommendations with evidence-based strategies to prevent, diagnose, and treat CNS complications of SCD in low-middle- and high-income settings. CONCLUSIONS: Three of 19 recommendations immediately impact clinical care. These recommendations include: use of transcranial Doppler ultrasound screening and hydroxyurea for primary stroke prevention in children with hemoglobin SS (HbSS) and hemoglobin Sß0 (HbSß0) thalassemia living in low-middle-income settings; surveillance for developmental delay, cognitive impairments, and neurodevelopmental disorders in children; and use of magnetic resonance imaging of the brain without sedation to detect silent cerebral infarcts at least once in early-school-age children and once in adults with HbSS or HbSß0 thalassemia. Individuals with SCD, their family members, and clinicians should become aware of and implement these recommendations to reduce the burden of CNS complications in children and adults with SCD.

Age-structure and transient dynamics in epidemiological systems.

Mathematical models of childhood diseases date back to the early twentieth century. In several cases, models that make the simplifying assumption of homogeneous time-dependent transmission rates give good agreement with data in the absence of secular trends in population demography or transmission. The prime example is afforded by the dynamics of measles in industrialized countries in the pre-vaccine era. Accurate description of the transient dynamics following the introduction of routine vaccination has proved more challenging, however. This is true even in the case of measles which has a well-understood natural history and an effective vaccine that confers long-lasting protection against infection. Here, to shed light on the causes of this problem, we demonstrate that, while the dynamics of homogeneous and age-structured models can be qualitatively similar in the absence of vaccination, they diverge subsequent to vaccine roll-out. In particular, we show that immunization induces changes in transmission rates, which in turn reshapes the age distribution of infection prevalence, which effectively modulates the amplitude of seasonality in such systems. To examine this phenomenon empirically, we fit transmission models to measles notification data from London that span the introduction of the vaccine. We find that a simple age-structured model provides a much better fit to the data than does a homogeneous model, especially in the transition period from the pre-vaccine to the vaccine era. Thus, we propose that age structure and heterogeneities in contact rates are critical features needed to accurately capture transient dynamics in the presence of secular trends.

Commentary: resolving pertussis resurgence and vaccine immunity using mathematical transmission models.

The epidemiology of pertussis-a vaccine-preventable respiratory infection typically caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis-remains puzzling. Indeed, the disease seems nowhere close to eradication and has even re-emerged in certain countries-such as the US-that have maintained high vaccination coverage. Because the dynamics of pertussis are shaped by past vaccination and natural infection rates, with the relevant timescale spanning decades, the interpretation of such unexpected trends is not straightforward. In this commentary, we propose that mathematical transmission models play an essential role in helping to interpret the data and in closing knowledge gaps in pertussis epidemiology. We submit that recent advances in statistical inference methods now allow us to estimate key parameters, such as the nature and duration of vaccinal immunity, which have to date been difficult to quantify. We illustrate these points with the results of a recent study based on data from Massachusetts (Domenech de Cellès, Magpantay, King, and Rohani, Sci. Transl. Med. 2018;10: eaaj1748. doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.aaj1748), in which we used such methods to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the ongoing resurgence of pertussis. In addition, we list a number of safety checks that can be used to critically assess mathematical models. Finally, we discuss the remaining uncertainties surrounding pertussis vaccines, in particular the acellular vaccines used for teenage booster immunizations.

Monte Carlo profile confidence intervals for dynamic systems.

Monte Carlo methods to evaluate and maximize the likelihood function enable the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, facilitating scientific investigation using models for which the likelihood function is intractable. When Monte Carlo error can be made small, by sufficiently exhaustive computation, then the standard theory and practice of likelihood-based inference applies. As datasets become larger, and models more complex, situations arise where no reasonable amount of computation can render Monte Carlo error negligible. We develop profile likelihood methodology to provide frequentist inferences that take into account Monte Carlo uncertainty. We investigate the role of this methodology in facilitating inference for computationally challenging dynamic latent variable models. We present examples arising in the study of infectious disease transmission, demonstrating our methodology for inference on nonlinear dynamic models using genetic sequence data and panel time-series data. We also discuss applicability to nonlinear time-series and spatio-temporal data.

Infectious Disease Dynamics Inferred from Genetic Data via Sequential Monte Carlo.

Genetic sequences from pathogens can provide information about infectious disease dynamics that may supplement or replace information from other epidemiological observations. Most currently available methods first estimate phylogenetic trees from sequence data, then estimate a transmission model conditional on these phylogenies. Outside limited classes of models, existing methods are unable to enforce logical consistency between the model of transmission and that underlying the phylogenetic reconstruction. Such conflicts in assumptions can lead to bias in the resulting inferences. Here, we develop a general, statistically efficient, plug-and-play method to jointly estimate both disease transmission and phylogeny using genetic data and, if desired, other epidemiological observations. This method explicitly connects the model of transmission and the model of phylogeny so as to avoid the aforementioned inconsistency. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach through simulation and apply it to estimate stage-specific infectiousness in a subepidemic of human immunodeficiency virus in Detroit, Michigan. In a supplement, we prove that our approach is a valid sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. While we focus on how these methods may be applied to population-level models of infectious disease, their scope is more general. These methods may be applied in other biological systems where one seeks to infer population dynamics from genetic sequences, and they may also find application for evolutionary models with phenotypic rather than genotypic data.

Pertussis immunity and epidemiology: mode and duration of vaccine-induced immunity.

The resurgence of pertussis in some countries that maintain high vaccination coverage has drawn attention to gaps in our understanding of the epidemiological effects of pertussis vaccines. In particular, major questions surround the nature, degree and durability of vaccine protection. To address these questions, we used mechanistic transmission models to examine regional time series incidence data from Italy in the period immediately following the introduction of acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine. Our results concur with recent animal-challenge experiments wherein infections in aP-vaccinated individuals proved as transmissible as those in naive individuals but much less symptomatic. On the other hand, the data provide evidence for vaccine-driven reduction in susceptibility, which we quantify via a synthetic measure of vaccine impact. As to the precise nature of vaccine failure, the data do not allow us to distinguish between leakiness and waning of vaccine immunity, or some combination of these. Across the range of well-supported models, the nature and duration of vaccine protection, the age profile of incidence and the range of projected epidemiological futures differ substantially, underscoring the importance of the remaining unknowns. We identify key data gaps: sources of data that can supply the information needed to eliminate these remaining uncertainties.

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF IMPERFECT VACCINES FOR IMMUNIZING INFECTIONS.

The control of some childhood diseases has proven to be difficult even in countries that maintain high vaccination coverage. This may be due to the use of imperfect vaccines and there has been much discussion on the different modes by which vaccines might fail. To understand the epidemiological implications of some of these different modes, we performed a systematic analysis of a model based on the standard SIR equations with a vaccinated component that permits vaccine failure in degree ("leakiness"), take ("all-or-nothingness") and duration (waning of vaccine-derived immunity). The model was first considered as a system of ordinary differential equations, then extended to a system of partial differential equations to accommodate age structure. We derived analytic expressions for the steady states of the system and the final age distributions in the case of homogenous contact rates. The stability of these equilibria are determined by a threshold parameter Rp , a function of the vaccine failure parameters and the coverage p. The value of p for which Rp = 1 yields the critical vaccination ratio, a measure of herd immunity. Using this concept we can compare vaccines that confer the same level of herd immunity to the population but may fail at the individual level in different ways. For any fixed Rp > 1, the leaky model results in the highest prevalence of infection, while the all-or-nothing and waning models have the same steady state prevalence. The actual composition of a vaccine cannot be determined on the basis of steady state levels alone, however the distinctions can be made by looking at transient dynamics (such as after the onset of vaccination), the mean age of infection, the age distributions at steady state of the infected class, and the effect of age-specific contact rates.

Modulating the RNA processing and decay by the exosome: altering Rrp44/Dis3 activity and end-product.

In eukaryotes, the exosome plays a central role in RNA maturation, turnover, and quality control. In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the core exosome is composed of nine catalytically inactive subunits constituting a ring structure and the active nuclease Rrp44, also known as Dis3. Rrp44 is a member of the ribonuclease II superfamily of exoribonucleases which include RNase R, Dis3L1 and Dis3L2. In this work we have functionally characterized three residues located in the highly conserved RNB catalytic domain of Rrp44: Y595, Q892 and G895. To address their precise role in Rrp44 activity, we have constructed Rrp44 mutants and compared their activity to the wild-type Rrp44. When we mutated residue Q892 and tested its activity in vitro, the enzyme became slightly more active. We also showed that when we mutated Y595, the final degradation product of Rrp44 changed from 4 to 5 nucleotides. This result confirms that this residue is responsible for the stacking of the RNA substrate in the catalytic cavity, as was predicted from the structure of Rrp44. Furthermore, we also show that a strain with a mutation in this residue has a growth defect and affects RNA processing and degradation. These results lead us to hypothesize that this residue has an important biological role. Molecular dynamics modeling of these Rrp44 mutants and the wild-type enzyme showed changes that extended beyond the mutated residues and helped to explain these results.

Cerebrovascular disease in childhood cancer survivors: A Children's Oncology Group Report.

BACKGROUND: Curative therapy for childhood cancer has dramatically improved over past decades. Therapeutic radiation has been instrumental in this success. Unfortunately, irradiation is associated with untoward effects, including stroke and other cerebrovascular disease (CVD). The Children's Oncology Group (COG) has developed guidelines for screening survivors at risk for persistent or late sequelae of cancer therapy. OBJECTIVES: This review summarizes the pathophysiology and relevant manifestations of radiation-induced CVD and outlines the specific patient groups at risk for early-onset stroke. The reader will be alerted to the availability of the COG recommendations for monitoring, and, when applicable, specific screening and treatment recommendations will be highlighted. METHODS: A multidisciplinary task force critically reviewed the existing literature and scored the evidence to establish the current COG guidelines for monitoring health of survivors treated with head and neck irradiation. RESULTS: Previous head and neck exposure to therapeutic radiation is associated with latent CVD and increased risk for stroke in some patient groups. Common manifestations of radiation-induced CVD includes steno-occlusive disease, moyamoya, aneurysm, mineralizing microangiopathy, vascular malformations, and strokelike migraines. CONCLUSION: Risk for stroke is increased in survivors of pediatric CNS tumors, Hodgkin lymphoma, and acute lymphoblastic leukemia who received radiation to the brain and/or neck. As the population of survivors ages, vigilance for stroke and cerebrovascular disease needs to continue based on specific exposures during curative cancer therapy.

A pilot randomized education rehabilitation trial is feasible in sickle cell and strokes.

A randomized trial was completed to assess the feasibility of a 2-year education rehabilitation program for students with sickle cell disease and memory deficits. Eleven students were assigned to tutoring with or without memory training for 2 years. Eighty-two percent completed the program. Evidence of improvement in memory and academic achievement existed. Educational rehabilitation is a feasible strategy, but further investigation is needed to assess the benefit in a multi center trial.

A phase I and pharmacokinetic study of indisulam in combination with carboplatin.

Indisulam (E7070) is an anticancer agent that is currently being evaluated in phase II clinical studies. A significant reduction in glutathione synthetase and glutathione reductase transcripts by indisulam provided a molecular basis for its combination with platinum agents. Indisulam demonstrated high anti-tumour activity in various preclinical cancer models. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the recommended dose of indisulam in combination with carboplatin in patients with solid tumours and (2) to evaluate the pharmacokinetics of the combination. Patients with solid tumours were treated with indisulam in combination with carboplatin. Indisulam (350, 500, or 600 mg m(-2)) was given as a 1-hour intravenous infusion on day 1 and carboplatin (5 or 6 mg min ml(-1)) as an intravenous infusion over 30 min on day 2 of a three-weekly cycle. Sixteen patients received study treatment and were eligible. Thrombocytopenia was the major dose limiting toxicity followed by neutropenia. Both drugs contributed to the myelosuppressive effect of the combination. Indisulam 500 mg m(-2) in combination with carboplatin 6 mg min ml(-1) was identified not to cause dose limiting toxicity, but a delay of re-treatment by 1 week was required regularly to allow recovery from myelosuppression. The recommended dose and schedule for an envisaged phase II study in patients with non-small cell lung cancer is indisulam 500 mg m(-2) in combination with carboplatin 6 mg min ml(-1) repeated four-weekly. Patients who do not experience severe thrombocytopenia at cycle 1 will be permitted to receive an escalated dose of indisulam of 600 mg m(-2) from cycle 2 onwards.

Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems.

Nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems are widely used to model systems across the sciences and engineering. Such models are natural to formulate and can be analyzed mathematically and numerically. However, difficulties associated with inference from time-series data about unknown parameters in these models have been a constraint on their application. We present a new method that makes maximum likelihood estimation feasible for partially-observed nonlinear stochastic dynamical systems (also known as state-space models) where this was not previously the case. The method is based on a sequence of filtering operations which are shown to converge to a maximum likelihood parameter estimate. We make use of recent advances in nonlinear filtering in the implementation of the algorithm. We apply the method to the study of cholera in Bangladesh. We construct confidence intervals, perform residual analysis, and apply other diagnostics. Our analysis, based upon a model capturing the intrinsic nonlinear dynamics of the system, reveals some effects overlooked by previous studies.

The role of surgical biopsy in the diagnosis of glioma in individuals with neurofibromatosis-1.

Most gliomas in neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) are pilocytic astrocytomas (PAs) of the optic pathway occurring in young children. However, some individuals develop gliomas that lack the typical NF1-associated clinical features or radiographic appearance. We identified 17 atypical presentations from a review of 100 patients with NF1-associated gliomas. Biopsy showed that 9 were not classic PAs. These data highlight the value of biopsy in NF1-associated gliomas with unusual clinical or radiographic presentations.

Lattice effects observed in chaotic dynamics of experimental populations.

Animals and many plants are counted in discrete units. The collection of possible values (state space) of population numbers is thus a nonnegative integer lattice. Despite this fact, many mathematical population models assume a continuum of system states. The complex dynamics, such as chaos, often displayed by such continuous-state models have stimulated much ecological research; yet discrete-state models with bounded population size can display only cyclic behavior. Motivated by data from a population experiment, we compared the predictions of discrete-state and continuous-state population models. Neither the discrete- nor continuous-state models completely account for the data. Rather, the observed dynamics are explained by a stochastic blending of the chaotic dynamics predicted by the continuous-state model and the cyclic dynamics predicted by the discrete-state models. We suggest that such lattice effects could be an important component of natural population fluctuations.

Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors in neurofibromatosis 1.

One of the most clinically aggressive cancers associated with neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is the malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST). To determine the incidence and relative risk (RR) of MPNSTs in individuals with NF1, 1,475 individuals with NF1 were included from a cohort of patients examined by a single experienced geneticist from 1977 to 1996. The end points were incidence of MPNST, relative risk of MPNST, and relative risk associated with specific NF1 physical findings. Thirty-four individuals were identified with MPNST (2%). The relative risk of MPNST was higher than expected with an RR value of 113 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 78-158). The average 10-year annual incidence of MPNST between the second and fifth decade of life was roughly the same with a range of 0.0013 and 0.0068 MPNST per patient year. Most lesions occurred in the limbs (n = 18; 53%), and those with limb lesions survived longer than those with nonlimb MPNSTs. Pain associated with a mass was the greatest risk factor associated with MPNST development (RR = 31.4; 95% CI = 13.2-75.1). Further biological and epidemiological studies are needed to determine other factors that influence the risk of MPNST development in individuals affected with NF1. Am. J. Med. Genet. 93:388-392, 2000. Published 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Hypoglycemia in Beckwith-Wiedemann syndrome.

Beckwith-Wiedemann syndrome (BWS) is an overgrowth syndrome associated with macrosomia, macroglossia, abdominal wall defects, hypoglycemia in the neonatal period and embryonal cancers of infancy and early childhood. The frequency of hypoglycemia in this population is between 30% and 50%. The majority of infants with hypoglycemia will be asymptomatic and have resolution of the hypoglycemia within the first 3 days of life. Less than 5% will have hypoglycemia beyond the neonatal period requiring either continuous feeding or a partial pancreatectomy. The cause of hypoglycemia is unclear, but direct and indirect evidence supports a hyperinsulinemia as the major factor. Recent identification of the majority of genes associated with BWS in the 11p15 region and the genotype of persistent hyperinsulinemia hypoglycemia of childhood also in the 11p15 region may provide a molecular basis for hypoglycemia in BWS, particularly for the occasional patients with hypoglycemia requiring a partial pancreatectomy. Detailed genotype phenotype evaluations are needed and should provide an insight as to why patients with BWS have hypoglycemia.