Prediction of hospital visits for the general inpatient care using floating catchment area methods: a reconceptualization of spatial accessibility.

BACKGROUND: The adequate allocation of inpatient care resources requires assumptions about the need for health care and how this need will be met. However, in current practice, these assumptions are often based on outdated methods (e.g. Hill-Burton Formula). This study evaluated floating catchment area (FCA) methods, which have been applied as measures of spatial accessibility, focusing on their ability to predict the need for health care in the inpatient sector in Germany. METHODS: We tested three FCA methods (enhanced (E2SFCA), modified (M2SFCA) and integrated (iFCA)) for their accuracy in predicting hospital visits regarding six medical diagnoses (atrial flutter/fibrillation, heart failure, femoral fracture, gonarthrosis, stroke, and epilepsy) on national level in Germany. We further used the closest provider approach for benchmark purposes. The predicted visits were compared with the actual visits for all six diagnoses using a correlation analysis and a maximum error from the actual visits of ± 5%, ± 10% and ± 15%. RESULTS: The analysis of 229 million distances between hospitals and population locations revealed a high and significant correlation of predicted with actual visits for all three FCA methods across all six diagnoses up to ρ = 0.79 (p < 0.001). Overall, all FCA methods showed a substantially higher correlation with actual hospital visits compared to the closest provider approach (up to ρ = 0.51; p < 0.001). Allowing a 5% error of the absolute values, the analysis revealed up to 13.4% correctly predicted hospital visits using the FCA methods (15% error: up to 32.5% correctly predicted hospital). Finally, the potential of the FCA methods could be revealed by using the actual hospital visits as the measure of hospital attractiveness, which returned very strong correlations with the actual hospital visits up to ρ = 0.99 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We were able to demonstrate the impact of FCA measures regarding the prediction of hospital visits in non-emergency settings, and their superiority over commonly used methods (i.e. closest provider). However, hospital beds were inadequate as the measure of hospital attractiveness resulting in low accuracy of predicted hospital visits. More reliable measures must be integrated within the proposed methods. Still, this study strengthens the possibilities of FCA methods in health care planning beyond their original application in measuring spatial accessibility.

World-wide architecture of osteoporosis research: density-equalizing mapping studies and gender analysis.

OBJECTIVE: While research activities on osteoporosis grow constantly, no concise description of the global research architecture exists. Hence, we aim to analyze and depict the world-wide scientific output on osteoporosis combining bibliometric tools, density-equalizing mapping projections and gender analysis. METHOD: Using the NewQIS platform, we analyzed all osteoporosis-related publications authored from 1900 to 2012 and indexed by the Web of Science. Bibliometric details were analyzed related to quantitative and semi-qualitative aspects. RESULTS: The majority of 57 453 identified publications were original research articles. The USA and Western Europe dominated the field regarding cooperation activity, publication and citation performance. Asia, Africa and South America played a minimal role. Gender analysis revealed a dominance of male scientists in almost all countries except Brazil. CONCLUSION: Although the scientific performance on osteoporosis is increasing world-wide, a significant disparity in terms of research output was visible between developed and low-income countries. This finding is particularly concerning since epidemiologic evaluations of future osteoporosis prevalences predict enormous challenges for the health-care systems in low-resource countries. Hence, our study underscores the need to address these disparities by fostering future research endeavors in these nations with the aim to successfully prevent a growing global burden related to osteoporosis.

[A critical perspective on the global research activity in the field of bladder cancer]. / Eine kritische Betrachtung der globalen Forschungsaktivität zum Thema Harnblasenkrebs.

BACKGROUND: Bladder cancer (BC) is one of the most common forms of cancer world-wide. This underestimated disease can cause severe morbidity and mortality in individuals. Increasing awareness can be depicted by the increasing numbers of publications since the 1990s. Hence, it is challenging for a scientist to obtain an overview of the topic. To quantify the global research activity in this field, a scientometric investigation was conducted. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using the database Web of Science, the bibliometric data of publications on the topic of BC was acquired for the period 1900-2007. According to the NewQIS protocol, different visualization techniques and scientometric methods were applied. RESULTS: A total of 19,651 publications were evaluated. The USA takes a leading position in terms of the overall number of publications, institutions, and collaborations. International collaboration on BC has changed considerably in terms of quantity during the past 20 years. The largest number of articles and the highest number of citations regarding BC are found in the Journal of Urology. Thus, it is considered the most prolific journal. Furthermore, the productivity (i. e., publication numbers) of authors and scientific impact (i. e., citation rates) vary greatly. CONCLUSION: The field of BC continues to progress, whereby the influence of international co-operation on scientific progress is of increasing importance. New evaluation factors/tools have to be established for a more reliable evaluation of scientific work.

[Density equalizing mapping of obesity: analysis of a global epidemic]. / Density Equalizing Mapping der Adipositas: Analyse einer globalen Epidemie.

Obesity is a chronic disease whose origin is determined by genetic factors as well as environmental influences. The prevalence has rapidly increased worldwide in the recent decades. This paper evaluated the research on obesity in the period of 1900 - 2009 in the ISI "Web of Science" by Thomson Reuters. For this purpose scientometric methods were used and the results were graphically illustrated by "Density Equalizing Map Projections". From 1900 till 2009 94.987 published items are the basis for the present qualitative and quantitative data analysis. The publication rates show an exponential growth indicating a pronounced research activity. Concerning the country comparison the United States has the highest number of publications and citations, the highest modified h-index and most academic institutions. This manuscript shows the first comprehensive scientometric data on obesity. In this research area, the United States is a leader and is located at the center of global collaborations.

[Arthrosis: a scientometric analysis]. / Arthrose : Eine szientometrische Analyse.

BACKGROUND: In industrialized nations, arthrosis is one of the most frequent causes of physical disability and impaired quality of life in older people. OBJECTIVES: There are still no direct and curative therapies. In addition, the causative mechanisms of this disease have not been sufficiently deciphered and investigated so far. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For the present article, publications from 1900-2013 in the ISI Web of Science were reviewed. Quantitative and qualitative aspects are taken into account and are examined based on scientometric analysis methods. The illustrations demonstrate the global structure of the research and citation activity by Density Equalizing Map Projection. In addition, the radar charts illustrate the bi- and multilateral research and institutional cooperation. RESULTS: On the basis of the search criteria, a total of 46,212 publications were identified. Approximately 95 % of the publications date back to the last 25 years. In addition to the number of publications, the number of citations has increased continuously. The analysis of the country collaborations as well as the number of institutions indicates a predominance of the United States. Most articles about arthrosis concern the subject areas of rheumatology, orthopedics, and surgery. CONCLUSION: This study provides the first comprehensive, scientometric findings and illustrates corresponding representations of research activities, geographical contexts as well as research cooperation. It shows a great scientific interest, especially by North American and European scientists. The steady growth of research is explained by the high prevalence of arthrosis.