[No scientific lower threshold for compulsory vaccination]. / Geen wetenschappelijke ondergrens voor verplicht vaccineren.

The national vaccination rate in young children in the Netherlands has decreased in recent years. This has led to social and political discussions, for instance about compulsory vaccination for children in child-care. The national commission on child-care and vaccination has advised that vaccination should be made compulsory when the rate of vaccination has declined to a pre-determined lower threshold, to be determined by the government. A frequently quoted lower threshold is 95%. The idea behind this is the concept of a critical vaccination rate, a threshold needed for elimination of an infection in a large, well-mixed population. In this article we argue why the critical vaccination rate does not offer a scientific basis for a lower threshold to the national vaccination rate.

Updated cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit analysis of two infant rotavirus vaccination strategies in a high-income, low-endemic setting.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Since 2013, a biennial rotavirus pattern has emerged in the Netherlands with alternating high and low endemic years and a nearly 50% reduction in rotavirus hospitalization rates overall, while infant rotavirus vaccination has remained below 1% throughout. As the rotavirus vaccination cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit ratio in high-income settings is highly influenced by the total rotavirus disease burden, we re-evaluated two infant vaccination strategies, taking into account this recent change in rotavirus epidemiology. METHODS: We used updated rotavirus disease burden estimates derived from (active) surveillance to evaluate (1) a targeted strategy with selective vaccination of infants with medical risk conditions (prematurity, low birth weight, or congenital conditions) and (2) universal vaccination including all infants. In addition, we added herd protection as well as vaccine-induced intussusception risk to our previous cost-effectiveness model. An age- and risk-group structured, discrete-time event, stochastic multi-cohort model of the Dutch pediatric population was used to estimate the costs and effects of each vaccination strategy. RESULTS: The targeted vaccination was cost-saving under all scenarios tested from both the healthcare payer and societal perspective at rotavirus vaccine market prices (€135/child). The cost-effectiveness ratio for universal vaccination was €51,277 at the assumed vaccine price of €75/child, using a societal perspective and 3% discount rates. Universal vaccination became cost-neutral at €32/child. At an assumed vaccine-induced intussusception rate of 1/50,000, an estimated 1707 hospitalizations and 21 fatal rotavirus cases were averted by targeted vaccination per vaccine-induced intussusception case. Applying universal vaccination, an additional 571 hospitalizations and <  1 additional rotavirus death were averted in healthy children per vaccine-induced intussusception case. CONCLUSION: While universal infant rotavirus vaccination results in the highest reductions in the population burden of rotavirus, targeted vaccination should be considered as a cost-saving alternative with a favorable risk-benefit ratio for high-income settings where universal implementation is unfeasible because of budget restrictions, low rotavirus endemicity, and/or public acceptance.

Quantification of the horizontal transmission of Mycoplasma synoviae in non-vaccinated and MS-H-vaccinated layers.

The number of newly infected birds attributable to one infectious bird per day (= transmission rate ß) was assessed in non-vaccinated and MS-H-vaccinated experimental specified pathogen-free White Leghorns after Mycoplasma synoviae challenge. Furthermore, the effect of vaccination on the shedding of the challenge strain was determined. The following groups were made: a negative control group (n = 5), a vaccinated (MS-H vaccine by eye drop (>105.7 colour changing units/bird)) non-challenged group (n = 5), two non-vaccinated challenged groups (n = 18 each) and two vaccinated challenged groups (n = 18 each). In the challenged groups, six seeder birds were intratracheally inoculated with 105.4 colony forming units (CFUs)/bird. Trachea swabs were taken at day (D)2, D3, D4, D5, D7, D9, D11, D14, D17, D21, D25, D28, D32, D35, D42 and D46 after contact with seeders and analyzed with a quantitative PCR able to detect the vaccine and field strain separately. The transmission rate and shedding were estimated using the susceptible exposed infectious transmission model and a linear mixed model, respectively. The mean shedding of the challenge strain was 106.4 CFU equivalents M. synoviae/g trachea mucus in vaccinates shedding MS-H, while in the birds not shedding the vaccine (non-vaccinates and vaccinates not shedding MS-H) it was 106.9 CFU equivalents M. synoviae/g trachea mucus. In vaccinates shedding MS-H, ß was 0.0012 (95% C.I.: 0.00048 - 0.0024), while in birds not shedding vaccine (non-vaccinates and vaccinates not shedding MS-H) a significantly higher ß of 0.022 (95% C.I.: 0.015 - 0.031) was found.

Quantification of parasite shedding and horizontal transmission parameters in Histomonas meleagridis-infected turkeys determined by real-time quantitative PCR.

To gain more insight into the within flock transmission of Histomonas meleagridis, the shedding of parasites was quantified by a newly developed real-time quantitative (q)PCR and the basic reproduction number (R0) and the mean number of secondary infections per infectious bird per day in a susceptible population (ß) of H. meleagridis in the absence of heterakis were assessed. Forty turkeys were divided into two groups of 10 and 30 birds at 14 days of age. Birds of the first group were inoculated with 200,000 histomonads each, the second group served as a susceptible contact group. Cloacal swabs were taken at -1, 1, 4, 7, 9, 11, 14, 18 and 21 days post inoculation (p.i.) to assess the shedding of the parasite by the qPCR (detection limit 330 histomonads/ml droppings). The experiment ended at 28 days p.i. Mortality was 100% in the inoculated birds and started at day 12 p.i., while in the contacts, it was 83% and started at 16 days p.i. Shedding started 1 day after the inoculation in both groups. The mean shedding levels (and 95% CI) expressed as parasite equivalents per gram cloacal content on a log10 scale in the inoculated, contact birds that died and contact birds alive were 2.0 (1.6-2.4), 1.6 (1.4-1.9) and 1.2 (0.5-2.0), respectively. Birds that died shed histomonas more often and were infectious for 13.4 days; in contrast, those that recovered were infectious for 5.7 days. R0 was estimated to be 8.4 and ß 0.70. Simulations made with the parameters obtained were in agreement with the experimental results, confirming their validity.

Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases.

The transmission of infectious diseases of livestock does not differ in principle from disease transmission in any other animals, apart from that the aim of control is ultimately economic, with the influence of social, political and welfare constraints often poorly defined. Modelling of livestock diseases suffers simultaneously from a wealth and a lack of data. On the one hand, the ability to conduct transmission experiments, detailed within-host studies and track individual animals between geocoded locations make livestock diseases a particularly rich potential source of realistic data for illuminating biological mechanisms of transmission and conducting explicit analyses of contact networks. On the other hand, scarcity of funding, as compared to human diseases, often results in incomplete and partial data for many livestock diseases and regions of the world. In this overview of challenges in livestock disease modelling, we highlight eight areas unique to livestock that, if addressed, would mark major progress in the area.

Transmission of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae among weaned piglets on endemically infected farms.

Clinical outbreaks due to Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae occur recurrently, despite the wide-scale use of antimicrobials or vaccination. Therefore, new approaches for the prevention and control of these outbreaks are necessary. For the development of alternative measures, more insight into the transmission of the bacterium on farms is necessary. The aim of this cohort study was to quantify transmission of A. pleuropneumoniae amongst weaned piglets on farms. We investigated three possible transmission routes: (i) indirect transmission by infected piglets within the same compartment, (ii) transmission by infected pigs in adjacent pens and (iii) transmission by direct contact within pens. Additionally, we evaluated the effect of independent litter characteristics on the probability of infection. Two farms participated in our study. Serum and tonsil brush samples were collected from sows pre-farrowing. Serum was analysed for antibodies against Apx toxins and Omp. Subsequently, tonsil brush samples were collected from all piglets from these dams (N=542) in three cohorts, 3 days before weaning and 6 weeks later. Tonsil samples were analysed by qPCR for the presence of the apxIVA gene of A. pleuropneumoniae. Before weaning, 25% of the piglets tested positive; 6 weeks later 47% tested positive. Regression and stochastic transmission models were used to assess the contribution of each of the three transmission routes and to estimate transmission rates. Transmission between piglets in adjacent pens did not differ significantly from that between non-adjacent pens. The transmission rate across pens was estimated to be 0.0058 day(-1) (95% CI: 0.0030-0.010), whereas the transmission rate within pens was ten times higher 0.059 day(-1) (95% CI: 0.048-0.072). Subsequently, the effects of parity and serological response of the dam and litter age at weaning on the probability of infection of pigs were evaluated by including these into the regression model. A higher dam ApxII antibody level was associated with a lower probability of infection of the pig after weaning; age at weaning was associated with a higher probability of infection of the pig after weaning. Finally, transmission rate estimates were used in a scenario study in which the litters within a compartment were mixed across pens at weaning instead of raising litter mates together in a pen. The results showed that the proportion of infected piglets increased to 69% if litters were mixed at weaning, indicating that farm management measures may affect spread of A. pleuropneumoniae.

Simulation study of the mechanisms underlying outbreaks of clinical disease caused by Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae in finishing pigs.

Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae is a major cause of respiratory disease in pigs. Many farms are endemically infected without apparent disease, but occasionally severe outbreaks of pleuropneumonia occur. To prevent and control these outbreaks without antibiotics, the underlying mechanisms of these outbreaks need to be understood. Outbreaks are probably initiated by a trigger (common risk factor) changing the host-pathogen interaction, but it is unclear whether this trigger causes all cases directly (trigger mechanism), or whether the first case starts a transmission chain inducing disease in the infected contacts (transmission mechanism). The aim of this study was to identify conditions under which these mechanisms could cause A. pleuropneumoniae outbreaks, and to assess means for prevention and control. Outbreaks were first characterised by data from a literature review, defining an average outbreak at 12 weeks of age, affecting 50% of animals within 4 days. Simple mathematical models describing the two mechanisms can reproduce average outbreaks, with two observations supporting the trigger mechanism: (1) disease should be transmitted 50 times faster than supported by literature if there is a transmission chain; and (2) the trigger mechanism is consistent with the absence of reported outbreaks in young pigs as they have not yet been colonised by the bacterium. In conclusion, outbreaks of A. pleuropneumoniae on endemic farms are most likely caused by a trigger inducing pneumonia in already infected pigs, but more evidence is needed to identify optimum preventive interventions.

A cohort study on Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae colonisation in suckling piglets.

Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae causes respiratory disease in pigs and despite the use of preventive measures such as vaccination and antimicrobials clinical outbreaks still occur. At weaning often many piglets are not colonised. If differences in prevalence between litters are large and if factors were known that could explain these differences, this may provide an opportunity to raise groups of A. pleuropneumoniae free piglets. To this end, a cohort study was performed on two endemically infected farrow-to-finish farms. Seventy-six of 133 sows were selected using stratified random selection by parity. Farmers complied with a strict hygiene and animal management protocol to prevent transmission between litters. Tonsil brush and serum samples taken three weeks before parturition were tested for antigen with an apxIVA qPCR and antibodies with Apx and Omp ELISAs, respectively. Three days before weaning tonsil brush samples from all piglets (n=871) were collected and tested for antigen. Whereas all sows tested positive both in serology tests as well as qPCR, 0.41 of the litters tested fully negative and 0.73 of all piglets tested negative. The proportion of positively tested piglets in positive litters ranged from 0.08-1.0 (median=0.36). A grouped logistic regression model with a beta binomial distribution of the probability for piglets to become infected was fitted to the data and associations with explanatory variables were explored. To test the possibility that alternatively the clustering was caused by onwards transmission among the piglets, a transmission model was fitted to the data incorporating sow-piglet and piglet-piglet transmission, but this model did not fit better. The results of this study showed that the number of colonised suckling piglets was highly clustered and mainly attributable to the variability of infectiousness of the dam, but no dam related risk factor for colonisation status of litter or piglets within litters could be identified.

The effect of genetic selection for Johne's disease resistance in dairy cattle: Results of a genetic-epidemiological model.

The objective of this study was to model genetic selection for Johne's disease resistance and to study the effect of different selection strategies on the prevalence in the dairy cattle population. In the Netherlands, a certification-and-surveillance program is in use to reduce prevalence and presence of sources of infection in milk by culling ELISA-positive dairy cows in infected herds. To investigate the additional genetic effect of this program, a genetic-epidemiological model was developed to assess the effect of selection of cows that test negative for Johne's disease (dam selection). The genetic effect of selection at the sire level was also considered (sire selection), assuming selection of 80% of sires producing the most resistant offspring based on their breeding values, as well as the combined effect. Parameters assumed to be affected by genetic selection were the length of the latent period, susceptibility (i.e., the number of infectious doses needed to become infected), or the length of susceptible period as a calf. The effect of selection was measured by the time in years required to eliminate infection. Sensitivity analysis was performed for heritability, accuracy of selection, and intensity of selection. For dam selection, responses to selection were small, requiring 379 to 702 yr for elimination. For sire selection, responses were much larger, although elimination still required 147 to 223 yr. The response to selection was largest if genetic selection affected the length of the susceptible period, followed by the susceptibility, and finally the length of the latent period. Genetic selection for Johne's disease resistance by certification and surveillance is too slow for practical purpose, but that selection on the sire level is able to contribute to the control of Johne's disease in the long run.

Transmission rate of African swine fever virus under experimental conditions.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal, viral disease of swine. No vaccine is available, so controlling an ASF outbreak is highly dependent on zoosanitary measures, such as stamping out infected herds and quarantining of affected areas. Information on ASF transmission parameters could allow for more efficient application of outbreak control measures. Three transmission experiments were carried out to estimate the transmission parameters of two ASF virus isolates: Malta'78 (in two doses) and Netherlands'86. Different criteria were used for onset of infectiousness of infected pigs and moment of infection of contact pigs. The transmission rate (ß), estimated by a Generalized Linear Model, ranged from 0.45 to 3.63 per day. For the infectious period, a minimum as well as a maximum infectious period was determined, to account for uncertainties regarding infectiousness of persistently infected pigs. While the minimum infectious period ranged from 6 to 7 days, the average maximum infectious period ranged from approximately 20 to nearly 40 days. Estimates of the reproduction ratio (R) for the first generation of transmission ranged from 4.9 to 24.2 for the minimum infectious period and from 9.8 to 66.3 for the maximum infectious period, depending on the isolate. A first approximation of the basic reproduction ratio (R0) resulted in an estimate of 18.0 (6.90-46.9) for the Malta'78 isolate. This is the first R0 estimate of an ASFV isolate under experimental conditions. The estimates of the transmission parameters provide a quantitative insight into ASFV epidemiology and can be used for the design and evaluation of more efficient control measures.

Detection of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae in pigs by real-time quantitative PCR for the apxIVA gene.

A real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) for detection of the apxIVA gene of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae was validated using pure cultures of A. pleuropneumoniae and tonsillar and nasal swabs from experimentally inoculated Caesarean-derived/colostrum-deprived piglets and naturally infected conventional pigs. The analytical sensitivity was 5colony forming units/reaction. In comparison with selective bacterial examination using tonsillar samples from inoculated animals, the diagnostic sensitivity of the qPCR was 0.98 and the diagnostic specificity was 1.0. The qPCR showed consistent results in repeatedly sampled conventional pigs. Tonsillar brush samples and apxIVA qPCR analysis may be useful for further epidemiological studies and monitoring for A. pleuropneumoniae.

Scaling from challenge experiments to the field: Quantifying the impact of vaccination on the transmission of bluetongue virus serotype 8.

Bluetongue (BT) is an economically important disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. The most practical and effective way to protect susceptible animals against BTV is by vaccination. Data from challenge studies in calves and sheep conducted by Intervet International b.v., in particular, presence of viral RNA in the blood of challenged animals, were used to estimate vaccine efficacy. The results of the challenge studies for calves indicated that vaccination is likely to reduce the basic reproduction number (R(0)) for BTV in cattle to below one (i.e. prevent major outbreaks within a holding) and that this reduction is robust to uncertainty in the model parameters. Sensitivity analysis showed that the whether or not vaccination is predicted to reduce R(0) to below one depended on the following assumptions: (i) whether "doubtful" results from the challenge studies are treated as negative or positive; (ii) whether or not the probability of transmission from host to vector is reduced by vaccination; and (iii) whether the extrinsic incubation period follows a realistic gamma distribution or the more commonly used exponential distribution. For sheep, all but one of the vaccinated animals were protected and, consequently, vaccination will consistently reduce R(0) in sheep to below one. Using a stochastic spatial model for the spread of BTV in Great Britain (GB), vaccination was predicted to reduce both the incidence of disease and spatial spread in simulated BTV outbreaks in GB, in both reactive vaccination strategies and when an incursion occurred into a previously vaccinated population.

Design and results of an intensive monitoring programme for avian influenza in meat-type turkey flocks during four epidemics in northern Italy.

Surveillance programmes for low pathogenicity (LPAI) and high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) infections in poultry are compulsory for EU Member States; yet, these programmes have rarely been evaluated. In Italy, following a 1999 HPAI epidemic, control measures, including vaccination and monitoring, were implemented in the densely populated poultry area (DPPA) where all epidemics in Italy have been concentrated. We evaluated the monitoring system for its capacity to detect outbreaks rapidly in meat-type turkey flocks. The evaluation was performed in vaccination areas and high-risk areas in the DPPA, in 2000-2005, during which four epidemics occurred. Serum samples and cloacal swabs were taken from vaccinated birds and unvaccinated (sentinel) birds. We compared the detection rate of active, passive and targeted surveillance, by vaccination status, using multinomial logistic regression. A total of 13 275 samplings for serological testing and 4889 samplings for virological testing were performed; 6315 production cycles of different bird species were tested. The outbreaks detection rate in meat-type turkeys was 61% for active surveillance (n = 222/363 outbreaks), 32% for passive surveillance and 7% for targeted surveillance. The maximum likelihood predicted values for the detection rates differed by vaccination status: in unvaccinated flocks, it was 50% for active surveillance, 40% for passive surveillance and 10% for targeted surveillance, compared to respectively 79%, 17% and 4% for vaccinated flocks. Active surveillance seems to be most effective in detecting infection, especially when a vaccination programme is in place. This is the first evaluation of the effectiveness of different types of surveillance in monitoring LPAI infections in vaccinated poultry using field data.

Effect of Eimeria acervulina infection history on the immune response and transmission in broilers.

Heterogeneity in exposure to Eimeria spp. of chickens in a flock will result in differences between individual birds in oocyst output and acquired immunity, which subsequently affects transmission of the parasite in the population. The aim of this study was to quantify effects of previous infection of broilers with Eimeria acervulina on immune responses, oocyst output and transmission. A transmission experiment was carried out with pair-wise housed broilers, that differed in infection history. This "infection history" was achieved by establishment of a primary infection by inoculation of birds with 50,000 sporulated E. acervulina oocysts at day 6 of age ("primed"); the other birds did not receive a primary infection ("naïve"). The actual transmission experiment started at day 24 of age: one bird (I) was inoculated with 50,000 sporulated oocysts and was housed together with a non-inoculated contact bird (C). Oocyst excretion and parameters describing transmission, i.e. the number of infected C birds and time passed before start of excretion of C birds, were determined from day 28 to day 50 for six pairs of four different combinations of I and C birds (I-C): naïve-naïve, naïve-primed, primed-naïve and primed-primed. Immune parameters, CD4(+), CD8(+), αßTCR(+) and γδTCR(+) T cells and macrophages in duodenum, were determined in an additional 25 non-primed, non-inoculated control birds, and in the naïve-naïve and naïve-primed groups, each group consisting of 25 pairs. Although the numbers of CD4(+) T cells and γδTCR(+) T cells increased after primary infection, none of the immunological cell types provided an indication of differences in infectivity, susceptibility or transmission between birds. Oocyst output was significantly reduced in primed I and C birds. Transmission was reduced most in the primed-primed group, but nonetheless transmission occurred in all groups. This study also showed that acquired immunity significantly reduced oocyst output after inoculation and contact-infection, but not sufficiently to prevent transmission to contact-exposed birds.

Evaluation of suspension array analysis for detection of egg yolk antibodies against Salmonella Enteritidis.

Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (SE) is an important source of food-related diarrhoea in humans, and table eggs are considered the primordial source of contamination of the human food chain. Using eggs collected at egg-packing stations as samples could be a convenient strategy to detect colonization of layer flocks. The aim of this study was to evaluate egg yolk anti-Salmonella antibody detection using suspension array analysis. An egg yolk panel from contact-infected and non-colonized laying hens was used for the evaluation. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to define a cut-off value and to assess the overall accuracy of the assay. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were estimated by maximum likelihood. Sensitivity was quantified on hen level and on sample level, and also quantified as a function of time since colonization. The area under the ROC curve was estimated at 0.984 (se 0.006, P<0.001). Of all colonized contact-infected hens, 67.6% [95% CI: 46.8, 100] developed an antibody response, which was detectable 17.4 days [14.3, 26.9] after colonization. In total, 98% [95.4, 99.4] of the 'immunopositive' hens had test positive eggs. The overall sensitivity of the immunological test was 66.7% [45.9, 98.7] and the specificity was 98.5% [97.8, 99.1]. This study provided essential parameters for optimizing surveillance programs based on detection of antibodies, and indicates that immunology based on examination of egg yolk gives important information about the Salmonella status of the flock.

Eimeria acervulina: the influence of inoculation dose on transmission between broiler chickens.

The course and clinical appearance of an Eimeria species infection in chicken flocks depend on the response of an individual bird to infection and on population-dynamics of the infection in the flock. Differences in ingested numbers of oocysts may affect oocyst load in the flock and the subsequent infectious dose for not yet infected birds. To study the link between numbers of oocysts excreted by infected birds and transmission of Eimeria acervulina, experiments were carried out with 42 pairs of broiler chickens using inoculation doses with 5, 50, 500 or 50,000 sporulated oocysts. In each pair one bird was inoculated and the other bird was contact-exposed. All contact birds became infected, which occurred on average within 34h after exposure to an inoculated bird. Although a higher inoculation dose resulted in higher oocyst excretion in inoculated and contact-infected birds, only small non-significant differences in transmission rates between groups were found.

Quantification of horizontal transmission of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis bacteria in pair-housed groups of laying hens.

An important source of human salmonellosis is the consumption of table eggs contaminated with Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis. Optimization of the various surveillance programs currently implemented to reduce human exposure requires knowledge of the dynamics of S. Enteritidis infection within flocks. The aim of this study was to provide parameter estimates for a transmission model of S. Enteritidis in laying-type chicken flocks. An experiment was carried out with 60 pairs of laying hens. Per pair, one hen was inoculated with S. Enteritidis and the other was contact exposed. After inoculation, cloacal swab samples from all hens were collected over 18 days and tested for the presence of S. Enteritidis. On the basis of this test, it was determined if and when each contact-exposed hen became colonized. A transmission model including a latency period of 1 day and a slowly declining infectivity level was fitted. The mean initial transmission rate was estimated to be 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 0.72) per day. The reproduction number R(0), the average number of hens infected by one colonized hen in a susceptible population, was estimated to be 2.8 (95% CI, 1.9 to 4.2). The generation time, the average time between colonization of a "primary" hen and colonization of contact-exposed hens, was estimated to be 7.0 days (95% CI, 5.0 to 11.6 days). Simulations using these parameters showed that a flock of 20,000 hens would reach a maximum colonization level of 92% within 80 days after colonization of the first hen. These results can be used, for example, to evaluate the effectiveness of control and surveillance programs and to optimize these programs in a cost-benefit analysis.

Assessing HIV care and unmet need: eight data bases and a bit of perseverance.

This study integrated healthcare information from multiple data sources to measure access to HIV primary care in the St. Louis, Missouri area between 1998-2002. We describe the process of creating the collective database and the degree to which each dataset contributed to the calculation of global variables such as evidence of HIV primary care. Descriptive analyses were used to measure evidence of HIV primary among the included data sources. This study was the first of its kind to study HIV primary healthcare access over a period of five years with integrated databases. Findings reinforce the importance of HIV laboratory values as indicators of access to HIV primary healthcare, particularly in the absence of other health data sets. Limitations to the study were posed by data availability and integration of data sources with varying purposes and sophistication.

A model for the dynamics of a protozoan parasite within and between successive host populations.

Parasite-host systems often include an obligatory environmental stage in the parasite life-cycle, which can be transmitted between successive populations. Complexity even increases if immunity only gradually develops upon re-infection. For a better understanding of such systems we study Eimeria spp. in chickens, a protozoan parasite transmitted through oocysts on the floor. This paper deals with dynamics within and between successive cohorts of chickens by coupling a within-host description of the parasite life-cycle (with immunity) to re-uptake of oocysts from the environment. First the initial environmental oocyst level is related to the maximum infection load within a cohort, as a measure of production damage, from which we conclude that minimum damage levels can be observed with intermediate oocyst levels. Then we relate the initial to the final oocyst level of a cohort, and study the dynamics between cohorts in relation to an oocyst cleaning efficiency after each cohort. The resulting unstable dynamics lead to the conclusion that it will often be impossible to minimize damage by repeatedly cleaning with the same effort: it may be necessary to artificially increase oocyst levels in the shed before each chicken cohort.

The effect of a live vaccine on the horizontal transmission of Mycoplasma gallisepticum.

The effect of a live Mycoplasma gallisepticum vaccine on the horizontal transmission of this Mycoplasma species was quantified in an experimental animal transmission model in specific pathogen free White Layers. Two identical trials were performed, each consisting of two experimental groups and one control group. The experimental groups each consisted of 20 birds 21 weeks of age, which were housed following a pair-wise design. One group was vaccinated twice with a commercially available live attenuated M. gallisepticum vaccine, while the other group was not vaccinated. Each pair of the experimental group consisted of a challenged chicken (10(4) colony-forming units intratracheally) and a susceptible in-contact bird. The control group consisted of 10 twice-vaccinated birds housed in pairs and five individually housed non-vaccinated birds. The infection was monitored by serology, culture and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The vaccine strain and the challenge strain were distinguished by a specific polymerase chain reaction and by random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis. In both experiments, all non-vaccinated challenged chickens and their in-contact 'partners' became infected with M. gallisepticum. In the vaccinated challenged and corresponding in-contact birds, a total of 19 and 13 chickens, respectively, became infected with M. gallisepticum. Analysis of the M. gallisepticum shedding patterns showed a significant effect of vaccination on the shedding levels of the vaccinated in-contact chickens. Moreover, the Cox Proportional Hazard analysis indicated that the rate of M. gallisepticum transmission from challenged to in-contact birds in the vaccinated group was 0.356 times that of the non-vaccinated group. In addition, the overall estimate of R (the average number of secondary cases infected by one typical infectious case) of the vaccinated group (R = 4.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.6 to 49.9) was significantly lower than that of the non-vaccinated group (R = infinity, 95% confidence interval = 9.9 to infinity). However, the overall estimate of R in the vaccinated group still exceeded 1, which indicates that the effect of the vaccination on the horizontal transmission M. gallisepticum is insufficient to stop its spread under these experimental conditions.