RESUMO
Given the substantial economic damage caused by the continual circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks since 2003, identifying high-risk locations associated with HPAI infections is essential. In this study, using affected and unaffected poultry farms' locations during an HPAI H5N6 epidemic in South Korea, we identified places where clusters of HPAI cases were found. Hotspots were defined as regions having clusters of HPAI cases. With the help of the statistical computer program R, a kernel density estimate and a spatial scan statistic were employed for this purpose. A kernel density estimate and detection of significant clusters through a spatial scan statistic both showed that districts in the Chungcheongbuk-do, Jeollabuk-do, and Jeollanam-do provinces are more vulnerable to HPAI outbreaks. Prior to the migration season, high-risk districts should implement particular biosecurity measures. High biosecurity measures, as well as improving the cleanliness of the poultry environment, would undoubtedly aid in the prevention of HPAIV transmission to poultry farms in these high-risk regions of South Korea.
RESUMO
Humans and animals are both susceptible to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. In the future, HPAI has the potential to be a source of zoonoses and pandemic disease drivers. It is necessary to identify areas of high risk that are more vulnerable to HPAI infections. In this study, we applied unbiased predictions based on known information to find points of localities with a high probability of point prevalence rate. To carry out such predictions, we utilized the inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging method, with the help of the R statistical computing program. The provinces of Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Chungcheongbuk-do and Ulsan have high anticipated risk. This research might aid in the management of avian influenza threats associated with various potential risks.