Decreased air quality shows minimal influence on peak summer attendance at forested Pacific West national parks.

Wildfires are increasing in duration and intensity across the United States' Pacific West region, resulting in heightened particulate matter from smoke in the atmosphere. Levels of peak particulate matter are concurrent to peak visitor attendance at National Parks, given seasonal alignment with summer vacation travel and heightened forest fire conditions. Particulate matter threatens visitor health and safety and contributes to poor visibility and a deteriorated visitor experience. To assess visitation response to diminished air quality, we utilized wildfire-generated particulate matter (PM2.5) data in conjunction with monthly attendance records for three ecoregions containing eight national parks in Washington, Oregon, and California from 2009 to 2019. We analyzed daily PM2.5 levels from data gridded at the 10 km scale for National Park Service units by Level III forest ecoregions within the National Park Service's Pacific West Unit. Data were then compared to normalized monthly visitation trends for each of the ecoregions using two statistical methods Kendall's Tau and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with post-hoc Tukey tests. Results demonstrate that attendance at these national parks does not decrease in response to increased PM2.5 levels. Instead, we see several statistically significant increases in attendance across these ecoregions during periods of reduced air quality. Of 115 shifts between air quality categories during the busy season of July to September, there are no significant decreases in attendance as air quality worsens. These findings suggest that visitors are willing to tolerate reduced air quality compared to other factors such as temperature or precipitation. Given that park units within each ecoregion feature diverse historical contexts, varied built environments, and unique ecological systems, our discussion specifically addresses managerial concerns associated with maintained high levels of visitation during suboptimal, and potentially dangerous, conditions. There is substantial need for specific, scalable approaches to mitigate adverse health and experiential impacts as visitors are exposed to increased risks during a range of exertional activities associated with diverse settings.

Death from hunger or thirst? Phloem death, rather than xylem hydraulic failure, as a driver of fire-induced conifer mortality.

Disruption of photosynthesis and carbon transport due to damage to the tree crown and stem cambial cells, respectively, can cause tree mortality. It has recently been proposed that fire-induced dysfunction of xylem plays an important role in tree mortality. Here, we simultaneously tested the impact of a lethal fire dose on nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) and xylem hydraulics in Pinus ponderosa saplings. Saplings were burned with a known lethal fire dose. Nonstructural carbohydrates were assessed in needles, main stems, roots and whole plants, and xylem hydraulic conductivity was measured in the main stems up to 29 d postfire. Photosynthesis and whole plant NSCs declined postfire. Additionally, all burned saplings showed 100% phloem/cambium necrosis, and roots of burned saplings had reduced NSCs compared to unburned and defoliated saplings. We further show that, contrary to patterns observed with NSCs, water transport was unchanged by fire and there was no evidence of xylem deformation in saplings that experienced a lethal dose of heat from fire. We conclude that phloem and cambium mortality, and not hydraulic failure, were probably the causes of death in these saplings. These findings advance our understanding of the physiological response to fire-induced injuries in conifer trees.

Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States.

Escalating wildfire activity in the western United States has accelerated adverse societal impacts. Observed increases in wildfire severity and impacts to communities have diverse anthropogenic causes-including the legacy of fire suppression policies, increased development in high-risk zones, and aridification by a warming climate. However, the intentional use of fire as a vegetation management tool, known as "prescribed fire," can reduce the risk of destructive fires and restore ecosystem resilience. Prescribed fire implementation is subject to multiple constraints, including the number of days characterized by weather and vegetation conditions conducive to achieving desired outcomes. Here, we quantify observed and projected trends in the frequency and seasonality of western United States prescribed fire days. We find that while ~2 C of global warming by 2060 will reduce such days overall (-17%), particularly during spring (-25%) and summer (-31%), winter (+4%) may increasingly emerge as a comparatively favorable window for prescribed fire especially in northern states.

Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions.

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

Short- and long-term effects of fire on stem hydraulics in Pinus ponderosa saplings.

Understanding tree physiological responses to fire is needed to accurately model post-fire carbon processes and inform management decisions. Given trees can die immediately or at extended time periods after fire, we combined two experiments to assess the short- (one-day) and long-term (21-months) fire effects on Pinus ponderosa sapling water transport. Native percentage loss of conductivity (nPLC), vulnerability to cavitation and xylem anatomy were assessed in unburned and burned saplings at lethal and non-lethal fire intensities. Fire did not cause any impact on nPLC and xylem cell wall structure in either experiment. However, surviving saplings evaluated 21-months post-fire were more vulnerable to cavitation. Our anatomical analysis in the long-term experiment showed that new xylem growth adjacent to fire scars had irregular-shaped tracheids and many parenchyma cells. Given conduit cell wall deformation was not observed in the long-term experiment, we suggest that the irregularity of newly grown xylem cells nearby fire wounds may be responsible for decreasing resistance to embolism in burned plants. Our findings suggest that hydraulic failure is not the main short-term physiological driver of mortality for Pinus ponderosa saplings. However, the decrease in embolism resistance in fire-wounded saplings could contribute to sapling mortality in the years following fire.

The Fire and Tree Mortality Database, for empirical modeling of individual tree mortality after fire.

Wildland fires have a multitude of ecological effects in forests, woodlands, and savannas across the globe. A major focus of past research has been on tree mortality from fire, as trees provide a vast range of biological services. We assembled a database of individual-tree records from prescribed fires and wildfires in the United States. The Fire and Tree Mortality (FTM) database includes records from 164,293 individual trees with records of fire injury (crown scorch, bole char, etc.), tree diameter, and either mortality or top-kill up to ten years post-fire. Data span 142 species and 62 genera, from 409 fires occurring from 1981-2016. Additional variables such as insect attack are included when available. The FTM database can be used to evaluate individual fire-caused mortality models for pre-fire planning and post-fire decision support, to develop improved models, and to explore general patterns of individual fire-induced tree death. The database can also be used to identify knowledge gaps that could be addressed in future research.

Fixing a snag in carbon emissions estimates from wildfires.

Wildfire is an essential earth-system process, impacting ecosystem processes and the carbon cycle. Forest fires are becoming more frequent and severe, yet gaps exist in the modeling of fire on vegetation and carbon dynamics. Strategies for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions from wildfires include increasing tree harvest, largely based on the public assumption that fires burn live forests to the ground, despite observations indicating that less than 5% of mature tree biomass is actually consumed. This misconception is also reflected though excessive combustion of live trees in models. Here, we show that regional emissions estimates using widely implemented combustion coefficients are 59%-83% higher than emissions based on field observations. Using unique field datasets from before and after wildfires and an improved ecosystem model, we provide strong evidence that these large overestimates can be reduced by using realistic biomass combustion factors and by accurately quantifying biomass in standing dead trees that decompose over decades to centuries after fire ("snags"). Most model development focuses on area burned; our results reveal that accurately representing combustion is also essential for quantifying fire impacts on ecosystems. Using our improvements, we find that western US forest fires have emitted 851 ± 228 Tg CO2 (~half of alternative estimates) over the last 17 years, which is minor compared to 16,200 Tg CO2 from fossil fuels across the region.

Human-environmental drivers and impacts of the globally extreme 2017 Chilean fires.

In January 2017, hundreds of fires in Mediterranean Chile burnt more than 5000 km2, an area nearly 14 times the 40-year mean. We contextualize these fires in terms of estimates of global fire intensity using MODIS satellite record, and provide an overview of the climatic factors and recent changes in land use that led to the active fire season and estimate the impact of fire emissions to human health. The primary fire activity in late January coincided with extreme fire weather conditions including all-time (1979-2017) daily records for the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and maximum temperature, producing some of the most energetically intense fire events on Earth in the last 15-years. Fire activity was further enabled by a warm moist growing season in 2016 that interrupted an intense drought that started in 2010. The land cover in this region had been extensively modified, with less than 20% of the original native vegetation remaining, and extensive plantations of highly flammable exotic Pinus and Eucalyptus species established since the 1970s. These plantations were disproportionally burnt (44% of the burned area) in 2017, and associated with the highest fire severities, as part of an increasing trend of fire extent in plantations over the past three decades. Smoke from the fires exposed over 9.5 million people to increased concentrations of particulate air pollution, causing an estimated 76 premature deaths and 209 additional admissions to hospital for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. This study highlights that Mediterranean biogeographic regions with expansive Pinus and Eucalyptus plantations and associated rural depopulation are vulnerable to intense wildfires with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental impacts, which are likely to become more frequent due to longer and more extreme wildfire seasons.

Global patterns of interannual climate-fire relationships.

Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with land-use and anthropogenic factors. Yet, the degree to which climate variability affects interannual variability in burned area across Earth is less understood. Two decades of satellite-derived burned area records across forested and nonforested areas were used to examine global interannual climate-fire relationships at ecoregion scales. Measures of fuel aridity exhibited strong positive correlations with forested burned area, with weaker relationships in climatologically drier regions. By contrast, cumulative precipitation antecedent to the fire season exhibited positive correlations to nonforested burned area, with stronger relationships in climatologically drier regions. Climate variability explained roughly one-third of the interannual variability in burned area across global ecoregions. These results highlight the importance of climate variability in enabling fire activity globally, but also identify regions where anthropogenic and other influences may facilitate weaker relationships. Empirical fire modeling efforts can complement process-based global fire models to elucidate how fire activity is likely to change amidst complex interactions among climatic, vegetation, and human factors.

Accounting for disturbance history in models: using remote sensing to constrain carbon and nitrogen pool spin-up.

Disturbances such as wildfire, insect outbreaks, and forest clearing, play an important role in regulating carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic fluxes in terrestrial watersheds. Evaluating how watersheds respond to disturbance requires understanding mechanisms that interact over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Simulation modeling is a powerful tool for bridging these scales; however, model projections are limited by uncertainties in the initial state of plant carbon and nitrogen stores. Watershed models typically use one of two methods to initialize these stores: spin-up to steady state or remote sensing with allometric relationships. Spin-up involves running a model until vegetation reaches equilibrium based on climate. This approach assumes that vegetation across the watershed has reached maturity and is of uniform age, which fails to account for landscape heterogeneity and non-steady-state conditions. By contrast, remote sensing, can provide data for initializing such conditions. However, methods for assimilating remote sensing into model simulations can also be problematic. They often rely on empirical allometric relationships between a single vegetation variable and modeled carbon and nitrogen stores. Because allometric relationships are species- and region-specific, they do not account for the effects of local resource limitation, which can influence carbon allocation (to leaves, stems, roots, etc.). To address this problem, we developed a new initialization approach using the catchment-scale ecohydrologic model RHESSys. The new approach merges the mechanistic stability of spin-up with the spatial fidelity of remote sensing. It uses remote sensing to define spatially explicit targets for one or several vegetation state variables, such as leaf area index, across a watershed. The model then simulates the growth of carbon and nitrogen stores until the defined targets are met for all locations. We evaluated this approach in a mixed pine-dominated watershed in central Idaho, and a chaparral-dominated watershed in southern California. In the pine-dominated watershed, model estimates of carbon, nitrogen, and water fluxes varied among methods, while the target-driven method increased correspondence between observed and modeled streamflow. In the chaparral watershed, where vegetation was more homogeneously aged, there were no major differences among methods. Thus, in heterogeneous, disturbance-prone watersheds, the target-driven approach shows potential for improving biogeochemical projections.

Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events.

Extreme wildfires have substantial economic, social and environmental impacts, but there is uncertainty whether such events are inevitable features of the Earth's fire ecology or a legacy of poor management and planning. We identify 478 extreme wildfire events defined as the daily clusters of fire radiative power from MODIS, within a global 10 × 10 km lattice, between 2002 and 2013, which exceeded the 99.997th percentile of over 23 million cases of the ΣFRP 100 km-2 in the MODIS record. These events are globally distributed across all flammable biomes, and are strongly associated with extreme fire weather conditions. Extreme wildfire events reported as being economically or socially disastrous (n = 144) were concentrated in suburban areas in flammable-forested biomes of the western United States and southeastern Australia, noting potential biases in reporting and the absence of globally comprehensive data of fire disasters. Climate change projections suggest an increase in days conducive to extreme wildfire events by 20 to 50% in these disaster-prone landscapes, with sharper increases in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere and European Mediterranean Basin.

Hazards in Motion: Development of Mobile Geofences for Use in Logging Safety.

Logging is one of the most hazardous occupations in the United States. Real-time positioning that uses global navigation satellite system (GNSS) technology paired with radio frequency transmission (GNSS-RF) has the potential to reduce fatal and non-fatal accidents on logging operations through the use of geofences that define safe work areas. Until recently, most geofences have been static boundaries. The aim of this study was to evaluate factors affecting mobile geofence accuracy in order to determine whether virtual safety zones around moving ground workers or equipment are a viable option for improving situational awareness on active timber sales. We evaluated the effects of walking pace, transmission interval, geofence radius, and intersection angle on geofence alert delay using a replicated field experiment. Simulation was then used to validate field results and calculate the proportion of GNSS error bearings resulting in early alerts. The interaction of geofence radius and intersection angle affected safety geofence alert delay in the field experiment. The most inaccurate alerts were negative, representing early warning. The magnitude of this effect was largest at the greatest intersection angles. Simulation analysis supported these field results and also showed that larger GNSS error corresponded to greater variability in alert delay. Increasing intersection angle resulted in a larger proportion of directional GNSS error that triggered incorrect, early warnings. Because the accuracy of geofence alerts varied greatly depending on GNSS error and angle of approach, geofencing for occupational safety is most appropriate for general situational awareness unless real-time correction methods to improve accuracy or higher quality GNSS-RF transponders are used.

The Science of Firescapes: Achieving Fire-Resilient Communities.

Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated "silos," including institutions (e.g., agencies versus universities), organizational structures (e.g., federal agency mandates versus local and state procedures for responding to fire), and research foci (e.g., physical science, natural science, and social science). These silos tend to promote research, management, and policy that focus only on targeted aspects of the "wicked" wildfire problem. In this article, we provide guiding principles to bridge diverse fire science efforts to advance an integrated agenda of wildfire research that can help overcome disciplinary silos and provide insight on how to build fire-resilient communities.

Modeling the impacts of wildfire on runoff and pollutant transport from coastal watersheds to the nearshore environment.

Wildfire is a common disturbance that can significantly alter vegetation in watersheds and affect the rate of sediment and nutrient transport to adjacent nearshore oceanic environments. Changes in runoff resulting from heterogeneous wildfire effects are not well-understood due to both limitations in the field measurement of runoff and temporally-limited spatial data available to parameterize runoff models. We apply replicable, scalable methods for modeling wildfire impacts on sediment and nonpoint source pollutant export into the nearshore environment, and assess relationships between wildfire severity and runoff. Nonpoint source pollutants were modeled using a GIS-based empirical deterministic model parameterized with multi-year land cover data to quantify fire-induced increases in transport to the nearshore environment. Results indicate post-fire concentration increases in phosphorus by 161 percent, sediments by 350 percent and total suspended solids (TSS) by 53 percent above pre-fire years. Higher wildfire severity was associated with the greater increase in exports of pollutants and sediment to the nearshore environment, primarily resulting from the conversion of forest and shrubland to grassland. This suggests that increasing wildfire severity with climate change will increase potential negative impacts to adjacent marine ecosystems. The approach used is replicable and can be utilized to assess the effects of other types of land cover change at landscape scales. It also provides a planning and prioritization framework for management activities associated with wildfire, including suppression, thinning, and post-fire rehabilitation, allowing for quantification of potential negative impacts to the nearshore environment in coastal basins.