Development of a transboundary model of livestock disease in Europe.

Epidemiological models of notifiable livestock disease are typically framed at a national level and targeted for specific diseases. There are inherent difficulties in extending models beyond national borders as details of the livestock population, production systems and marketing systems of neighbouring countries are not always readily available. It can also be a challenge to capture heterogeneities in production systems, control policies, and response resourcing across multiple countries, in a single transboundary model. In this paper, we describe EuFMDiS, a continental-scale modelling framework for transboundary animal disease, specifically designed to support emergency animal disease planning in Europe. EuFMDiS simulates the spread of livestock disease within and between countries and allows control policies to be enacted and resourced on a per-country basis. It provides a sophisticated decision support tool that can be used to look at the risk of disease introduction, establishment and spread; control approaches in terms of effectiveness and costs; resource management; and post-outbreak management issues.

What Are the Human Resources Required to Control a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria?

Contingency planning allows veterinary authorities to prepare a rapid response in the event of a disease outbreak. A recently published foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) simulation study indicated concerns whether capacity was sufficient to control a potential FMD epidemic in Austria. The objectives of the study presented here were to estimate the human resources required to implement FMD control measures and to identify areas of the operational activities that could potentially delay successful control of the disease. The stochastic spatial simulation model EuFMDiS (The European Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Model) was used to simulate a potential FMD outbreak and its economic impact, including different control scenarios based on variations of culling, vaccination, and pre-emptive depopulation. In this context, the utilization of human resources was assessed based on the associated EuFMDiS output regarding the performance of operational activities. The assessments show that the number of personnel needed in an outbreak with a stamping-out policy would reach the peak at the end of the second week of control with a median of 540 (257-926) individuals, out of which 31% would be veterinarians. Approximately 58% of these human resources would be attributable to surveillance, followed by staff for cleaning and disinfection activities. Our analysis demonstrates that, of the operational activities, surveillance personnel were the largest factor influencing the magnitude of the outbreak. The aim of the assessment presented here is to assist veterinary authorities in the contingency planning of required human resources to respond effectively to an outbreak of animal diseases such as FMD.

A tiered approach to cumulative risk assessment for reproductive and developmental toxicity of food contaminants for the austrian population using the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI).

Through our daily diet, we are exposed to a variety of food contaminants. Yet, assessing the cumulative health risk of chemical mixtures remains a challenge. Using a recently developed method, the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI), the cumulative risks posed by contaminant mixtures were assessed for their effects on reproduction and development. Since these effects can be quite diverse, a tiered approach was adopted to elucidate the risks at a more detailed level based on specific toxicological endpoints. An additional analysis was performed using the modified Maximum Cumulative Ratio (mMCR), which provides the determination of risk-dominating substances in the mixture. Our method represents a novel useful tool to screen and prioritise contaminant mixtures regarding their potential health risks. We found, that in the majority of the calculated scenarios a single substance dominates the cumulative risks. Lead was found to be the primary factor for adverse effects on reproduction and neuronal development of children. Perchlorate was identified as the most prominent risk factor for child development in generalCumulative risks of trichothecenes were dominated by deoxynivalenol. Concerning the impact on pre- and neonatal development, the co-exposure of several substances resulted in increased risks, with none of the considered contaminants dominating substantially.

Spatiotemporal cluster and incidence analysis of cattle mortality caused by bovine babesiosis in Styria, Austria, between 1998 and 2016.

Reported fatal cases of bovine babesiosis (syn.: piroplasmosis, red water fever) in cattle were analyzed to identify spatial and temporal clusters of their incidence in the Austrian province of Styria. Data were collected within a governmental babesiosis compensation program. Diagnosis was performed using a standardized necropsy protocol. Between 1998 and 2016, a total of 1257 cases of fatal babesiosis were registered and compensated. Within the study interval, annual numbers of fatal babesiosis differed significantly among municipalities. Spatiotemporal analysis covering the entire study period revealed one high-risk cluster in the western and central northern region of Styria and a low-risk cluster in the southeastern part of Styria. Annual temporal analysis demonstrated that cases accumulated in June. Annual spatial analysis revealed consistently that cases mainly occurred in the western and central northern regions, whereas they occurred rarely in the southeastern regions. These results should increase awareness and facilitate protective actions against ticks during certain time periods and geographic areas.

The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria.

An outbreak of foot-and mouth disease (FMD) in an FMD-free country such as Austria would likely have serious consequences for the national livestock sector and economy. The objective of this study was to analyse the epidemiological and economic impact of an FMD outbreak in Austria in order to (i) evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures in two Austrian regions with different livestock structure and density, (ii) analyse the associated costs of the control measures and the losses resulting from trade restrictions on livestock and livestock products and (iii) assess the resources that would be required to control the FMD outbreak. The European Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Model (EuFMDiS) was used to simulate a potential FMD outbreak. Based on the epidemiological outputs of the model, the economic impact of the outbreak was assessed. The analysis of the simulations showed that the success of control strategies depends largely on the type of control measures, the geographical location, the availability of sufficient resources, and the speed of intervention. The comparison of different control strategies suggested that from an economic point of view the implementation of additional control measures, such as pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds, would be efficient if the epidemic started in an area with high livestock density. Depending on the chosen control measures and the affected region, the majority of the total costs would be attributable to export losses (e.g., each day of an FMD epidemic costs Austria € 9-16 million). Our analysis indicated that the currently estimated resources for surveillance, cleaning, and disinfection during an FMD outbreak in Austria would be insufficient, which would lead to an extended epidemic control duration. We have shown that the control of an FMD outbreak can be improved by implementing a contingency strategy adapted to the affected region and by placing particular focus on an optimal resource allocation and rapid detection of the disease in Austria. The model results can assist veterinary authorities in planning resources and implementing cost-effective control measures for future outbreaks of highly contagious viral diseases.

Modified Reference Point Index (mRPI) and a decision tree for deriving uncertainty factors: A practical approach to cumulative risk assessment of food contaminant mixtures.

Risk assessment of chemical mixtures remains a challenging task in all areas of food and consumer safety. So far, no general method has been developed that is best suited to several subject areas (e.g. food contaminants, additives and supplements, plant protection products). Especially for mixtures of food contaminants sophisticated methods are typically not applicable due to a general lack of complete toxicological data sets. We developed a new approach, the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI), that combines the advantages of the Hazard Index and the Reference Point Index. Furthermore, we developed a decision tree for the determination of specific uncertainty factors that makes the mRPI an easy to use method for cumulative risk assessment even in a data poor field such as food contaminants. To further characterise the estimated cumulative risks, the Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) was adapted to be applied on the mRPI, and the modified Maximum Cumulative Ratio (mMCR) was established to identify whether the risks are dominated by a single substance. We present two case studies assessing the nephrotoxic and neurotoxic risks for the Austrian population originating from food contaminant mixtures. Calculations could not rule out potential cumulative risks, yet, they seemed to be dominated by single substances.

Investigating the role of landscape composition on honey bee colony winter mortality: A long-term analysis.

The health of honey bee colonies is, amongst others, affected by the amount, quality and diversity of available melliferous plants. Since landscape is highly diverse throughout Austria regarding the availability of nutritional resources, we used data from annual surveys on honey bee colony losses ranging over six years to analyse a possible relationship with land use. The data set comprises reports from a total of 6,655 beekeepers and 129,428 wintered honey bee colonies. Regions surrounding the beekeeping operations were assigned to one of six clusters according to their composition of land use categories by use of a hierarchical cluster analysis, allowing a rough distinction between urban regions, regions predominated by semi-natural areas and pastures, and mainly agricultural environments. We ran a Generalised Linear Mixed Model and found winter colony mortality significantly affected by operation size, year, and cluster membership, but also by the interaction of year and cluster membership. Honey bee colonies in regions composed predominantly of semi-natural areas, coniferous forests and pastures had the lowest loss probability in four out of six years, and loss probabilities within these regions were significantly lower in five out of six years compared to those within regions composed predominantly of artificial surfaces, broad-leaved and coniferous forest.

Antimicrobial drug use on Austrian dairy farms with special consideration of the use of "highest priority critically important antimicrobials".

The use of antibiotics in livestock production is coming under growing criticism. Beside overall antimicrobial use, specific substances listed by the WHO as "highest priority critically important antimicrobials" (HPCIAs)--these include fluoroquinolones, macrolides, 3rd and 4th generation cephalosporins, as well as glycopeptides--have been placed under specific restrictions and should only be applied in particular cases according to strict indication criteria. In this study, the consumption of antimicrobial substances on Austrian dairy farms was evaluated quantitatively. The data covered 8,027 prescription records on the use of antibiotics on 465 dairy farms. Eleven veterinary practices provided data from between four to 27 months during the period from 2008 to 2010 and the total consumption of antimicrobials was estimated. The amount of active substance(s) in grams used per livestock unit (g/LU) per year and the number of product-related daily doses used per livestock unit (n PrDD(LU)/LU) per year were determined as units of measurement. These parameters were estimated by applying Monte Carlo simulation techniques, respecting variances in annual working days of the veterinary practices as well as variances in the proportion of non-treated populations. Total antimicrobial consumption in the population-at-risk was determined to be 2.59 g/LU and 1.30 PrDD(LU)/LU per year. HPCIAs were used at a proportion of 24.6% (0.31 PrDD(LU)/LU) of the total consumption of antimicrobials for systemic and intramammary use. Of these, 3rd and 4th generation cephalosporins were most frequently administered, particularly for the treatment of mastitis and foot diseases. The total consumption of antimicrobials in Austrian dairy cattle production is negligible compared to their use in pig and poultry production systems. However, the use of HPCIAs, especially 3rd and 4th generation cephalosporins, should be minimised further.

[Comparison of sampling strategies to detect porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in a simulated pig producing plant]. / Vergleich von Stichprobenverfahren zum Nachweis des Porzinen Reproduktiven und Respiratorischen Syndrom-Virus in einem simulierten Schweinezuchtbetrieb.

The effectivity of different sampling schemes for the early detection of the introduction of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus into a pig herd was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Within a theoretical breeding herd of 300 animals, disease transmission was simulated using a stochastic SEIR model incorporating actual animal movement data. The following parameters were evaluated for different sample sizes, sampling frequencies and diagnostic procedures (ELISA, PCR): the time from virus introduction until detection, the daily detection probability and the number of holdings to which infected animals are shipped before the disease is detected. The results show that the sample size has an influence on early detection. The biggest effects are, however, achieved by shortening the sampling intervals. The median detection time is approximately ten days shorter for PCR than for ELISA. If, however, the sampling intervals are chosen too wide there is a chance of overlooking the disease using PCR alone.

The effect of bovine viral diarrhoea virus on fertility in dairy cows: two case-control studies in the province of Styria, Austria.

Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) leads to substantial economic losses in beef and dairy herds worldwide. Two case-control studies were carried out using production data from 1996 to 2012 to analyse the impact of BVD virus (BVDV) on fertility in dairy herds in the province of Styria during an eradication programme. In study 1, herds in which at least one persistently BVDV-infected (PI) animal was detected (case herds) were compared to a group of control herds proven free from BVDV infection (contro herds). In study 2, within BVD infected herds the period during which P animals were present (exposed period) was compared to the period after successful BVD eradication (unexposed period). Calving interval (CAl) and the probability of a first service conception (FSC) were used as indicators in a mixed regression model to investigate the impact of BVD on reproductive performance. The model results indicated that BVD had a significant influence on CAl and FSC. Cows from control herds were 1.1 times more likely to conceive at first service compared to cows from case herds and cows served during the BVDV unexposed period were 1.3 times more likely to conceive at first service than those inseminated during the exposed period. In BVD-infected herds the CAI averaged seven days shorter in unexposed periods than in exposed periods. Besides BVD the animal breed and the parity substantially impact the analysed fertility indicators.

Estimating sensitivity and specificity of a PCR for boot socks to detect Campylobacter in broiler primary production using Bayesian latent class analysis.

The present study compares three different assays for sample collection and detection of Campylobacter spp. in broiler flocks, based on (i) the collection of faecal samples from intestinal organs (caecum), (ii) individual faecal droppings collected from the bedding and (iii) faecal material collected by socks placed on the outside of a pair of boots (boot socks) and used for walking around in the flock. The two first methods are examined for Campylobacter using a culture method (ISO-10272-2:2006), while the boot socks are tested using PCR. The PCR-assay is a genus specific multiplex PCR with primers targeting 16S rDNA in Campylobacter and primers targeting Yersinia ruckerii. Sixty-seven broiler flocks from Austria and 83 broiler flocks from Denmark were included in this prospective study and 89 of these were found to be positive in at least one method (AT: 49 samples, DK: 40 samples) whereas 61 of these were negative in all assays. In Austria samples for the three assays were collected simultaneously, which facilitates a direct comparison of the diagnostic test performance. In Denmark, however, boot socks and faecal droppings were collected three days before slaughter while caecum samples were collected at slaughter. The results were evaluated in the absence of a gold standard using a Bayesian latent class model. Austrian results showed higher sensitivity for PCR detection in sock samples (0.98; Bayesian credible interval (BCI) [0.93-1]) than for culture of faecal droppings (0.86; BCI [0.76-0.91]) or caecal samples (0.92; BCI [0.85-0.97]). The potential impact of Campylobacter introduction within the final three days before slaughter was observed in Denmark, where four flocks were tested negative three days before slaughter, but were detected positive at the slaughterhouse. Therefore the model results for the PCR sensitivity (0.88; BCI [0.83-0.97]) and cultural ISO-method in faecal samples (0.84; BCI [0.76-0.92]) are lower than for caecal samples (0.93; BCI [0.85-0.98]). In our study, PCR detection on boot sock samples is more sensitive than conventional culture. In view of the advantage of rapid results before slaughter and low costs for sampling, especially in combination with existing Salmonella surveillance systems (just another pair of boot socks needed), this method-matrix combination could be a valuable surveillance tool in the broiler primary production.

Antibiotic resistance marker genes as environmental pollutants in GMO-pristine agricultural soils in Austria.

Antibiotic resistance genes may be considered as environmental pollutants if anthropogenic emission and manipulations increase their prevalence above usually occurring background levels. The prevalence of aph(3')-IIa/nptII and aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII - frequent marker genes in plant biotechnology conferring resistance to certain aminoglycosides - was determined in Austrian soils from 100 maize and potato fields not yet exposed to but eligible for GMO crop cultivation. Total soil DNA extracts were analysed by nptII/nptIII-specific TaqMan real time PCR. Of all fields 6% were positive for nptII (median: 150 copies/g soil; range: 31-856) and 85% for nptIII (1190 copies/g soil; 13-61600). The copy-number deduced prevalence of nptIII carriers was 14-fold higher compared to nptII. Of the cultivable kanamycin-resistant soil bacteria 1.8% (95% confidence interval: 0-3.3%) were positive for nptIII, none for nptII (0-0.8%). The nptII-load of the studied soils was low rendering nptII a typical candidate as environmental pollutant upon anthropogenic release into these ecosystems.

Prevalence of the aminoglycoside phosphotransferase genes aph(3')-IIIa and aph(3')-IIa in Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Enterococcus faecium, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica and Staphylococcus aureus isolates in Austria.

The aminoglycoside phosphotransferase aph(3')-IIa primarily inactivates kanamycin and neomycin, whilst aph(3')-IIIa also inactivates amikacin. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of both resistance genes in major human pathogens to obtain their baseline prevalence in the gene pool of these bacterial populations in Austria. In total, 10 541 Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Enterococcus faecium, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica and Staphylococcus aureus isolates were collected representatively without selection bias between 2008 and 2011. Isolates were analysed by aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII- and aph(3')-IIa/nptII-specific TaqMan real-time PCR. For positive strains, MICs using Etests were performed and resistance gene sequences were determined. The overall prevalence of aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII was 1.62 % (95 % confidence interval: 1.38-1.88 %). In Escherichia coli, enterococci, Staphylococcus aureus, P. aeruginosa and Salmonella spp., the aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII prevalence was 0.47 % (0-1.47 %), 37.53 % (32.84-42.40 %), 2.90 % (1.51-5.02 %), 0 % (0-0.32 %) and 0 % (0-0.037 %), respectively. Eleven of a total of 169 carriers showed single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the resistance allele. The overall prevalence of aph(3')-IIa/nptII was 0.0096 % (0-0.046 %). Escherichia coli (0-0.70 %), enterococci (0-0.75 %), Staphylococcus aureus (0-0.73 %) and P. aeruginosa (0-0.32 %) did not carry aph(3')-IIa. A single Salmonella isolate was positive, resulting in an aph(3')-IIa prevalence of 0.013 % (0-0.058 %). aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII carriers were moderately prevalent in the strains tested except for in enterococci, which appeared to be an important reservoir for aph(3')-IIIa. aph(3')-IIa/nptII genes were detected at clinically irrelevant frequencies and played no significant role in the aminoglycoside resistance gene pool during the observation period.