Fox Insight at 5 years - a cohort of 54,000 participants contributing longitudinal patient-reported outcome, genetic, and microbiome data relating to Parkinson's disease.

Fox Insight is an online, longitudinal study of over 54,000 people with and without Parkinson's disease, facilitating discovery, validation, and reproducibility in Parkinson's disease research. The study administers routine longitudinal assessments, one-time questionnaires on an array of topics such as environmental exposure or COVID-19, plus genetic and microbiome data collection. Researchers can explore and download patient-reported outcomes data and Parkinson's disease related genetic variants upon completing a Data Use Agreement. The full genetic data set, including approximately 650,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms for over 10,000 participants, and the microbiome data set for over 650 participants, can be requested with a heightened level of access. Since the first Fox Insight data descriptor was published in 2020, the data captured has been extended significantly, so this paper supersedes the previous one. Since then, the number of participants has increased by more than 20,000; an additional 1,747,729 surveys were completed; 130 gigabytes of genetic data were released; responses from 16 new one-time surveys were collected; and, data from one additional sub-study was made available.

Minor Phenomena in Parkinson's Disease-Prevalence, Associations, and Risk of Developing Psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Minor phenomena, including passage phenomena, feeling of presence, and illusions, are common and may represent a prodromal form of psychosis in Parkinson's disease (PD). We examined the prevalence and clinical correlates of minor phenomena, and their potential role as a risk factor for PD psychosis. METHODS: A novel questionnaire, the Psychosis and Mild Perceptual Disturbances Questionnaire for PD (PMPDQ), was completed by Fox Insight cohort participants with and without PD. Additional assessments included the Non-Motor Symptoms Questionnaire (NMSQuest), REM Sleep Behavior Disorder Single Question Screen (RBD1Q), Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale Part II, demographic features, and medication usage. For participants with PD, we used regression models to identify clinical associations and predictors of incident psychosis over one year of follow-up. RESULTS: Among participants with PD (n = 5950) and without PD (n = 1879), the prevalence of minor phenomena was 43.1% and 31.7% (P < .001). Of the 3760 participants with PD and no baseline psychosis, independent correlates of minor phenomena included positive responses on the NMSQuest apathy/attention/memory (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.1, P < .001) or sexual function domain (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6, P = .01) and positive RBD1Q (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.05-1.5, P = .01). Independent risk factors for incident PD psychosis included the presence of minor phenomena (HR 3.0, 95% CI 2.4-3.9, P < .001), positive response on the NMSQuest apathy/attention/memory domain (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3-2.6, P < .001), and positive RBD1Q (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.9, P = .004). CONCLUSIONS: Minor phenomena are common, associated with specific non-motor symptoms, and an independent predictor of incident psychosis in PD.

American Football Play and Parkinson Disease Among Men.

Importance: Parkinsonism and Parkinson disease (PD) are known to result from repetitive head impacts from boxing. Repetitive head impacts from American football may also be associated with increased risk of neurodegenerative pathologies that cause parkinsonism, yet in vivo research on the association between football play and PD is scarce and limited by small samples and equivocal findings. Objective: To evaluate the association between football participation and self-reported parkinsonism or PD diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study leveraged data from the online Fox Insight study. Participants completed online questionnaires and self-reported whether they currently had a diagnosis of Parkinson disease or parkinsonism by a physician or other health care professional. In November 2020, the Boston University Head Impact Exposure Assessment was launched for data collection on repetitive head impacts. Data used for this manuscript were obtained from the Fox Insight database on June 9, 2022. A total of 1875 men who endorsed playing any organized sport were included. Former athletes were divided into those who participated in football (n = 729 [38.9%]) and those who participated in other sports (reference group). Exposures: Self-reported participation in football, duration and level of football play, age at first exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures: Logistic regression tested associations between PD status and history of football play, duration of football play, highest level played, and age at first exposure, controlling for age, education, history of diabetes or heart disease, body mass index, history of traumatic brain injury with loss of consciousness, and family history of PD. Results: In this sample of 1875 men (mean [SD] age, 67.69 [9.84] years) enriched for parkinsonism or PD (n = 1602 [85.4%]), 729 (38.9%) played football (mean [SD] duration, 4.35 [2.91] years). History of playing football was associated with higher odds of having a parkinsonism or PD diagnosis (odds ratio [OR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.19-2.17). Among the entire sample, longer duration of play was associated with higher odds of having a parkinsonism or PD diagnosis (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.06-1.19). Among football players, longer duration of football play (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.02-1.23) and higher level of play (OR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.28-6.73) were associated with higher odds of having parkinsonism or PD. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of participants enriched for PD, participation in football was associated with higher odds of having a reported parkinsonism or PD diagnosis.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Care Partners of People with Parkinson's Disease.

Background: Since the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the caregiving routine for care partners of people with Parkinson's disease (PwPD) changed substantially. Objectives: To understand the nature and severity of burden in care partners of PwPD during the ongoing pandemic. We also sought to describe care partners' perceived change in burden and factors associated with increased burden. Methods: Cross-sectional online questionnaire-based study among care partners of PwPD, registered in the Fox Insight study. The questionnaire consisted of the Modified Caregiver Strain Index, whether an aspect of strain had changed over the course of the pandemic and additional pandemic-specific infection and lifestyle-related items. Results: Two hundred seventy-three non-paid primary care partners responded to the questionnaire, 73% female with a median age at enrollment of 64 years, 56% reporting a household income greater than 75,000 USD per year, and 61% retired. An increase in burden compared to before the pandemic was prevalent, ranging from 33% to 63% for individual items. Emotional strain increased most frequently (63%). Decreases in burden were uncommon; work adjustments (7%) and time demands (6%) decreased most frequently. PD-related factors and care partner roles in personal care of the PwPD were the factors that were associated with strain in multivariable analysis, whereas social and pandemic-related factors were not. Conclusion: In this affluent and mostly retired cohort, increases in emotional strain during the pandemic were prevalent. Despite this, caregiving roles in personal care and severity of symptoms in the PwPD were more strongly associated with strain than social and pandemic-related factors.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on People with Parkinson's Disease.

BACKGROUND: The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with Parkinson's disease (PD) is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To rapidly identify areas of need and improve care in people with PD during the COVID-19 pandemic, we deployed a survey to assess COVID-19 symptoms and the pandemic's effect among those with and without COVID-19. METHODS: People with and without PD participating in the online study Fox Insight (FI) were invited to complete a survey between April 23 and May 23, 2020. Among people reporting COVID-19 diagnoses, we compared symptoms and outcomes in people with and without PD. Among people not reporting COVID-19, we assessed access to healthcare and services and PD symptoms. RESULTS: 7,209/9,762 active FI users responded (approximately 74% response rate), 5,429 people with PD and 1,452 without PD. COVID-19 diagnoses were reported by 51 people with and 26 without PD. Complications were more frequent in people with longer PD duration. People with PD and COVID-19 experienced new or worsening motor (63%) and nonmotor (75%) symptoms. People with PD not diagnosed with COVID-19 reported disrupted medical care (64%), exercise (21%), and social activities (57%), and worsened motor (43%) and non-motor (52%) symptoms. Disruptions were more common for those living alone, with lower income and non-White race. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic is associated with wide-ranging effects on people with PD, and certain groups may be at particular risk. FI provides a rapid, patient-centered means to assess these effects and identify needs that can be used to improve the health of people with PD.

Innovative Recruitment Strategies to Increase Diversity of Participation in Parkinson's Disease Research: The Fox Insight Cohort Experience.

BACKGROUND: Clinical research in Parkinson's disease (PD) faces practical and ethical challenges due to two interrelated problems: participant under-recruitment and lack of diversity. Fox Insight (FI) is a web-based longitudinal study collecting patient-reported outcomes and genetic data worldwide to inform therapeutic studies. FI's online platform provides an opportunity to evaluate online strategies for recruiting large, diverse research cohorts. OBJECTIVE: This project aimed to determine 1) whether FI's digital marketing was associated with increased enrollment overall and from under-represented patient groups, compared to traditional recruitment methods; 2) the clinical and demographic characteristics of samples recruited online, and 3) the cost of this online recruitment. METHOD: FI recruitment during a 6-week baseline period without digital promotion was compared to recruitment during several periods of digital outreach. Separate online recruiting intervals included general online study promotion and unique Facebook and Google ad campaigns targeting under-represented subgroups: early PD, late/advanced PD, and residents of underrepresented/rural geographic areas. RESULTS: Early PD, late PD, and geotargeting campaigns enrolled more individuals in their respective cohorts compared to baseline. All online campaigns also yielded greater total FI enrollment, attracting more participants who were non-White, Hispanic, older, female, and had lower educational attainment and income, and more medical comorbidities. Cost per new participant ranged from $21 (Facebook) to $108 (Google). CONCLUSION: Digital marketing may allow researchers to increase, accelerate, and diversify recruitment for PD clinical studies, by tailoring digital ads to target PD cohort characteristics.

Comparison of an Online-Only Parkinson's Disease Research Cohort to Cohorts Assessed In Person.

BACKGROUND: Online tools for data collection could be of value in patient-oriented research. The Fox Insight (FI) study collects data online from individuals with self-reported Parkinson's disease (PD). Comparing the FI cohort to other cohorts assessed through more traditional (in-person) observational research studies would inform the representativeness and utility of FI data. OBJECTIVE: To compare self-reported demographic characteristics, symptoms, medical history, and PD medication use of the FI PD cohort to other recent observational research study cohorts assessed with in-person visits. METHODS: The FI PD cohort (n = 12,654) was compared to 3 other cohorts, selected based on data accessibility and breadth of assessments: Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI; PD n = 422), Parkinson's Disease Biomarker Program (PDBP; n = 700), and PD participants in the LRRK2 consortium without LRRK2 mutations (n = 508). Demographics, motor and non-motor assessments, and medications were compared across cohorts. Where available, identical items on surveys and assessments were compared; otherwise, expert opinion was used to determine comparable definitions for a given variable. RESULTS: The proportion of females was significantly higher in FI (45.56%) compared to PPMI (34.36%) and PDBP (35.71%). The FI cohort had greater educational attainment as compared to all other cohorts. Overall, prevalence of difficulties with motor experiences of daily living and non-motor symptoms in the FI cohort was similar to other cohorts, with only a few significant differences that were generally small in magnitude. Missing data were rare for the FI cohort, except on a few variables. DISCUSSION: Patterns of responses to patient-reported assessments obtained online on the PD cohort of the FI study were similar to PD cohorts assessed in-person.

Comprehensive evaluation of macroscopic and microscopic myocardial fibrosis by cardiac MR: intra-individual comparison of gadobutrol versus gadoterate meglumine.

PURPOSE: Late gadolinium enhancement cardiac MR (LGE-CMR) and extracellular volume fraction (ECV-CMR) are widely used to evaluate macroscopic and microscopic myocardial fibrosis. Macrocyclic contrast media are increasingly used off-label for myocardial scar assessment, given the superior safety profile of these agents. We aimed to assess the performance of two macrocyclic contrast agents, gadoterate meglumine and gadobutrol, for the evaluation of myocardial scar. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty subjects (61 ± 11 years, 67.5% men) who underwent LGE-CMR using gadobutrol were prospectively recruited for a research CMR scan using same-dose gadoterate meglumine (0.2 mmol/kg) at 1.5 T. Myocardial scar quantification was performed using a short-axis phase-sensitive inversion recovery (PSIR) Turbo-FLASH and steady-state free precession (SSFP) images. Pre- and post-contrast T1-mapping was employed to assess myocardial ECV. An intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to check for reliability between the two contrast agents. RESULTS: Using manual thresholding on PSIR Turbo-FLASH images, mean LGE scar percentage (LGE%) was 9.9 ± 9.7% and 9.4 ± 9.7% for gadobutrol and gadoterate meglumine, respectively (p > 0.05) (ICC: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.97-0.99). Using the PSIR SSFP technique and manual thresholding, LGE% averaged 7.5 ± 9.0% and 7.1 ± 8.6% for gadobutrol and gadoterate meglumine, respectively (p > 0.05) (ICC: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98-0.99). Average ECV with gadobutrol and gadoterate meglumine were similar at 28.40 ± 4.88 and 28.46 ± 4.73 (p > 0.05) with a strong correlation (ICC: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.94-0.99). CONCLUSION: We found LGE- and ECV-CMR values derived from gadoterate meglumine comparable to values derived from gadobutrol. Gadoterate meglumine has a comparable performance to gadobutrol in identifying LGE-derived myocardial scar both qualitatively and quantitatively. KEY POINTS: • Late gadolinium-enhancement cardiac MR (LGE-MR) and extracellular volume (ECV) fraction are widely used to evaluate macroscopic and microscopic myocardial fibrosis. • Macrocyclic contrast media are increasingly used off-label for myocardial scar assessment, given the presumed superior safety profile of these agents. • LGE- and ECV-CMR values derived from gadoterate meglumine are comparable to values derived from gadobutrol.

Protective glove use and hygiene habits modify the associations of specific pesticides with Parkinson's disease.

Pesticides have been associated with Parkinson's disease (PD), and protective gloves and workplace hygiene can reduce pesticide exposure. We assessed whether use of gloves and workplace hygiene modified associations between pesticides and PD. The Farming and Movement Evaluation (FAME) study is a nested case-control study within the Agricultural Health Study. Use of protective gloves, other PPE, and hygiene practices were determined by questionnaire (69 cases and 237 controls were included). We considered interactions of gloves and hygiene with ever-use of pesticides for all pesticides with ≥5 exposed and unexposed cases and controls in each glove-use stratum (paraquat, permethrin, rotenone, and trifluralin). 61% of respondents consistently used protective gloves and 87% consistently used ≥2 hygiene practices. Protective glove use modified the associations of paraquat and permethrin with PD: neither pesticide was associated with PD among protective glove users, while both pesticides were associated with PD among non-users (paraquat OR 3.9 [95% CI 1.3, 11.7], interaction p=0.15; permethrin OR 4.3 [95% CI 1.2, 15.6] interaction p=0.05). Rotenone was associated with PD regardless of glove use. Trifluralin was associated with PD among participants who used <2 hygiene practices (OR 5.5 [95% CI 1.1, 27.1]) but was not associated with PD among participants who used 2 or more practices (interaction p=0.02). Although sample size was limited in the FAME study, protective glove use and hygiene practices appeared to be important modifiers of the association between pesticides and PD and may reduce risk of PD associated with certain pesticides.

Peptidoglycan recognition protein genes and risk of Parkinson's disease.

Increased gut permeability, inflammation, and colonic α-synuclein pathology are present in early Parkinson's disease (PD) and have been proposed to contribute to PD pathogenesis. Peptidoglycan is a structural component of the bacterial cell wall. Peptidoglycan recognition proteins (PGRPs) maintain healthy gut microbial flora by regulating the immune response to both commensal and harmful bacteria. We tested the hypothesis that variants in genes that encode PGRPs are associated with PD risk. Participants in two independent case-control studies were genotyped for 30 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the four PGLYRP genes. Using logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for potential confounding variables, we conducted analyses in each study, separately and pooled. One SNP failed the assay, and three had little to no variation. The ORs were similar in both study populations. In pooled analyses, three of seven PGLYRP2 SNPs (rs3813135, rs733731, rs892145), one of five PGLYRP3 SNPs (rs2987763), and six of nine PGLYRP4 SNPs (rs10888557, rs12063091, rs3006440, rs3006448, rs3006458, and rs3014864) were significantly associated with PD risk. Association was strongest for PGLYRP4 5'untranslated region (UTR) SNP rs10888557 (GG reference, CG OR 0.6 [95%CI 0.4-0.9], CC OR 0.15 [95%CI 0.04-0.6]; log-additive P-trend, 0.0004). Common variants in PGLYRP genes are associated with PD risk in two independent studies. These results require replication, but they are consistent with hypotheses of a causative role for the gut microbiota and gastrointestinal immune response in PD.

Dietary fat intake, pesticide use, and Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: Dietary fat intake may modify Parkinson's disease (PD) risk directly or by altering the response to environmental neurotoxicants including pesticides. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of PD nested in the Agricultural Health Study (AHS), a cohort of pesticide applicators and spouses. We evaluated diet and pesticide use before diagnosis in 89 PD cases, confirmed by movement disorder specialists, or a corresponding date in 336 frequency-matched controls. Associations were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: In the AHS, PD was inversely associated with N-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.8 for highest vs. lowest tertile) and the N-3 precursor α-linolenic acid (0.4, 0.2-0.8). In a meta-analysis of nine studies, including the present one, PD was inversely associated with α-linolenic acid (0.81, 0.68-0.96). In the AHS, associations of PD with the pesticides paraquat and rotenone were modified by fat intake. The OR for paraquat was 4.2 (1.5-12) in individuals with PUFA intake below the median but 1.2 (0.4-3.4) in those with higher intake (p-interaction = 0.10). The OR for rotenone was 5.8 (2.3-15) in those with saturated fat intake above the median but 1.5 (0.5-4.2) in those with lower intake (p-interaction = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: PUFA intake was consistently associated with lower PD risk, and dietary fats modified the association of PD risk with pesticide exposure. If confirmed, these findings suggest that a diet high in PUFAs and low in saturated fats might reduce risk of PD.

Genetic modification of the association of paraquat and Parkinson's disease.

Paraquat is one of the most widely used herbicides worldwide. It produces a Parkinson's disease (PD) model in rodents through redox cycling and oxidative stress (OS) and is associated with PD risk in humans. Glutathione transferases provide cellular protection against OS and could potentially modulate paraquat toxicity. We investigated PD risk associated with paraquat use in individuals with homozygous deletions of the genes encoding glutathione S-transferase M1 (GSTM1) or T1 (GSTT1). Eighty-seven PD subjects and 343 matched controls were recruited from the Agricultural Health Study, a study of licensed pesticide applicators and spouses in Iowa and North Carolina. PD was confirmed by in-person examination. Paraquat use and covariates were determined by interview. We genotyped subjects for homozygous deletions of GSTM1 (GSTM1*0) and GSTT1 (GSTT1*0) and tested interaction between paraquat use and genotype using logistic regression. Two hundred and twenty-three (52%) subjects had GSTM1*0, 95 (22%) had GSTT1*0, and 73 (17%; all men) used paraquat. After adjustment for potential confounders, there was no interaction with GSTM1. In contrast, GSTT1 genotype significantly modified the association between paraquat and PD. In men with functional GSTT1, the odds ratio (OR) for association of PD with paraquat use was 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6-3.6); in men with GSTT1*0, the OR was 11.1 (95% CI: 3.0-44.6; P interaction: 0.027). Although replication is needed, our results suggest that PD risk from paraquat exposure might be particularly high in individuals lacking GSTT1. GSTT1*0 is common and could potentially identify a large subpopulation at high risk of PD from oxidative stressors such as paraquat.

Head injury, α-synuclein Rep1, and Parkinson's disease.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that variability in SNCA Rep1, a polymorphic dinucleotide microsatellite in the promoter region of the gene encoding α-synuclein, modifies the association between head injury and Parkinson's disease (PD) risk. METHODS: Participants in the Farming and Movement Evaluation (FAME) and the Study of Environmental Association and Risk of Parkinsonism using Case-Control Historical Interviews (SEARCH), 2 independent case-control studies, were genotyped for Rep1 and interviewed regarding head injuries with loss of consciousness or concussion prior to Parkinson's disease (PD) diagnosis. Logistic regression modeling adjusted for potential confounding variables and tested interaction between Rep1 genotype and head injury. RESULTS: Consistent with prior reports, relative to medium-length Rep1, short Rep1 genotype was associated with reduced PD risk (pooled odds ratio [OR], 0.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-0.9), and long Rep1 with increased risk (pooled OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 0.95-2.2). Overall, head injury was not significantly associated with PD (pooled OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.9-1.8). However, head injury was strongly associated with PD in those with long Rep1 (FAME OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.5-19; SEARCH OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 0.6-9.2; pooled OR, 3.5; 95% CI 1.4-9.2, p-interaction = 0.02). Individuals with both head injury and long Rep1 were diagnosed 4.9 years earlier than those with neither risk factor (p = 0.03). INTERPRETATION: While head injury alone was not associated with PD risk, our data suggest head injury may initiate and/or accelerate neurodegeneration when levels of synuclein are high, as in those with Rep1 expansion. Given the high population frequency of head injury, independent verification of these results is essential.

Solvent exposures and Parkinson disease risk in twins.

OBJECTIVE: Several case reports have linked solvent exposure to Parkinson disease (PD), but few studies have assessed associations with specific agents using an analytic epidemiologic design. We tested the hypothesis that exposure to specific solvents is associated with PD risk using a discordant twin pair design. METHODS: Ninety-nine twin pairs discordant for PD ascertained from the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council World War II Veteran Twins Cohort were interviewed regarding lifetime occupations and hobbies using detailed job task-specific questionnaires. Exposures to 6 specific solvents selected a priori were estimated by expert raters unaware of case status. RESULTS: Ever exposure to trichloroethylene (TCE) was associated with significantly increased risk of PD (odds ratio [OR], 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-33; p = 0.034), and exposure to perchloroethylene (PERC) and carbon tetrachloride (CCl(4) ) tended toward significance (respectively: OR, 10.5; 95% CI, 0.97-113; p = 0.053; OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 0.9-6.1; p = 0.088). Results were similar for estimates of exposure duration and cumulative lifetime exposure. INTERPRETATION: Exposure to specific solvents may increase risk of PD. TCE is the most common organic contaminant in groundwater, and PERC and CCl(4) are also ubiquitous in the environment. Our findings require replication in other populations with well-characterized exposures, but the potential public health implications are substantial.

Rotenone, paraquat, and Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial dysfunction and oxidative stress are pathophysiologic mechanisms implicated in experimental models and genetic forms of Parkinson's disease (PD). Certain pesticides may affect these mechanisms, but no pesticide has been definitively associated with PD in humans. OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to determine whether pesticides that cause mitochondrial dysfunction or oxidative stress are associated with PD or clinical features of parkinsonism in humans. METHODS: We assessed lifetime use of pesticides selected by mechanism in a case-control study nested in the Agricultural Health Study (AHS). PD was diagnosed by movement disorders specialists. Controls were a stratified random sample of all AHS participants frequency-matched to cases by age, sex, and state at approximately three controls:one case. RESULTS: In 110 PD cases and 358 controls, PD was associated with use of a group of pesticides that inhibit mitochondrial complex I [odds ratio (OR)=1.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0-2.8] including rotenone (OR=2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.7) and with use of a group of pesticides that cause oxidative stress (OR = 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2-3.6), including paraquat (OR=2.5; 95% CI, 1.4-4.7). CONCLUSIONS: PD was positively associated with two groups of pesticides defined by mechanisms implicated experimentally-those that impair mitochondrial function and those that increase oxidative stress-supporting a role for these mechanisms in PD pathophysiology.

Smell identification ability in twin pairs discordant for Parkinson's disease.

Olfactory dysfunction has been proposed to be a sign that may precede the motor features of Parkinson's disease (PD). To determine whether smell identification deficits predict subsequent PD, we studied smell identification ability using the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT) in 62 members of male twin pairs discordant for PD at baseline. Smell identification ability was reduced at baseline in the twins with PD compared to their unaffected brothers (23 vs. 31 of 40; P = 0.001). UPSIT scores were not reduced in the twins without PD when compared to age- and gender-specific normal values. After a mean interval of 7.3 years, 28 unaffected twins were still alive and 19 agreed to a second evaluation. Two had newly developed PD. Neither twin had impaired smell identification at baseline. The average decline in UPSIT percentile scores in these 2 twins was greater than in the 17 twins who did not develop PD (-68% vs. -24%; P = 0.01). In subjects who did not meet Core Assessment Program for Intracerebral Transplantations diagnostic criteria for PD at baseline, the presence of cardinal signs of parkinsonism was not associated with lower baseline UPSIT scores nor with a subsequent decline. Smell identification ability may not be a sensitive indicator of future PD 7 or more years before the development of motor signs, even in a theoretically at-risk population.