Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe.

Fire activity has significantly changed in Europe over the last decades (1980-2020s), with the emergence of summers attaining unprecedented fire prone weather conditions. Here we report a significant shift in the non-stationary relationship linking fire weather conditions and fire intensity measured in terms of CO2 emissions released during biomass burning across a latitudinal gradient of European IPCC regions. The reported trends indicate that global warming is possibly inducing an incipient change on regional fire dynamics towards increased fire impacts in Europe, suggesting that emerging risks posed by exceptional fire-weather danger conditions may progressively exceed current wildfire suppression capabilities in the next decades and impact forest carbon sinks.

Human and climate drivers of global biomass burning variability.

Biomass burning is one of the most critical factors impacting vegetation and atmospheric trends, with important societal implications, particularly when extreme weather conditions occur. Trends and factors of burned area (BA) have been analysed at regional and global scales, but little effort has been dedicated to study the interannual variability. This paper aimed to better understand factors explaining this variation, under the assumption that the more human control of fires the more frequently they occur, as burnings will be less dependent of weather cycles. Interannual variability of BA was estimated from the coefficient of variation of the annual BA (BA_CV) estimated from satellite data at 250 m, covering the period from 2001 to 2018. These data and the explanatory variables were resampled at 0.25-degree resolution for global analysis. Relations between this variable and explanatory factors, including human and climate drivers, were estimated using Random Forest (RF) and generalized additive models (GAM). BA_CV was negatively related to BA_Mean, implying that areas with higher average BA have lower variability as well. Interannual BA variability decreased when maximum temperature (TMAX) and actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET, PET) increased, cropland and livestock density increased and the human development index (HDI) values decreased. GAM models indicated interesting links with AET, PET and precipitation, with negative relation with BA_CV for the lower ranges and positive for the higher ones, the former indicating fuel limitations of fire activity, and the latter climate constrains. For the global RF model, TMAX, AET and HDI were the main drivers of interannual variability. As originally hypothesised, BA_CV was more dependent on human factors (HDI) in those areas with medium to large BA occurrence, particularly in tropical Africa and Central Asia, while climatic factors were more important in boreal regions, but also in the tropical regions of Australia and South America.

Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin.

Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency of two heat-induced fire-weather types that have been related to the largest wildfires in recent years. Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5, suggesting that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin.

A process-based land use/land cover change assessment on a mountainous area of Greece during 1945-2009: Signs of socio-economic drivers.

In the Mediterranean region, natural vegetation has been strongly affected by human activities for thousands of years. During the last decades, there has been a notable tendency for abandonment of marginal agricultural land that is further associated with a number of ecological consequences. In this study we recorded and mapped the temporal changes of land use/land cover (LULC) classes that were further aggregated into major process-based changes for the period 1945-2009 in Aetoloakarnania prefecture, Greece. LULC mapping was based on aerial photographs acquired in 1945, 1960, 1985-1986 and 2007-2009. Object-based image analysis allowed the classification of the region's LULC classes and, consecutively, the assessment of process-based LULC changes for each time period. The results indicated that agricultural land increased during the first post-war years while abandonment of agricultural land took place during more recent decades, especially after the period 1960-1985. The observed land abandonment is combined with a simultaneous densification of shrublands and forests. Radical socio-economic changes that took place in the 1960's include the migration of rural populations towards big cities and the beginning of the development of the tourist industry. We argue that these socio-economic changes play an important role in shaping the observed LULC changes.

Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe.

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980's, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts.

Monitoring land use/land cover transformations from 1945 to 2007 in two peri-urban mountainous areas of Athens metropolitan area, Greece.

The aims of this study were to map and analyze land use/land cover transitions and landscape changes in the Parnitha and Penteli mountains, which surround the Athens metropolitan area of Attica, Greece over a period of 62 years. In order to quantify the changes between land categories through time, we computed the transition matrices for three distinct periods (1945-1960, 1960-1996, and 1996-2007), on the basis of available aerial photographs used to create multi-temporal maps. We identified systematic and stationary transitions with multi-level intensity analysis. Forest areas in Parnitha remained the dominant class of land cover throughout the 62 years studied, while transitional woodlands and shrublands were the main classes involved in LULC transitions. Conversely, in Penteli, transitional woodlands, along with shrublands, dominated the study site. The annual rate of change was faster in the first and third time intervals, compared to the second (1960-1996) time interval, in both study areas. The category level analysis results indicated that in both sites annual crops avoided to gain while discontinuous urban fabric avoided to lose areas. At the transition level of analysis, similarities as well as distinct differences existed between the two areas. In both sites the gaining pattern of permanent crops with respect to annual crops and the gain of forest with respect to transitional woodland/shrublands were stationary across the three time intervals. Overall, we identified more systematic transitions and stationary processes in Penteli. We discussed these LULC changes and associated them with human interference (activity) and other major socio-economic developments that were simultaneously occurring in the area. The different patterns of change of the areas, despite their geographical proximity, throughout the period of analysis imply that site-specific studies are needed in order to comprehensively assess the driving forces and develop models of landscape transformation in Mediterranean areas.

Landscape--wildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for landscape management.

Every year approximately half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with lower fire hazard. The main findings are that (1) socio-economic drivers have favoured land cover changes contributing to increasing fire hazard in the last decades, (2) large wildfires are becoming more frequent, (3) increased fire frequency is promoting homogeneous landscapes covered by fire-prone shrublands; (4) landscape planning to reduce fuel loads may be successful only if fire weather conditions are not extreme. The challenges to address these problems and the policy and landscape management responses that should be adopted are discussed, along with major knowledge gaps.

Spectral and Spatial-Based Classification for Broad-Scale Land Cover Mapping Based on Logistic Regression.

Improvement of satellite sensor characteristics motivates the development of new techniques for satellite image classification. Spatial information seems to be critical in classification processes, especially for heterogeneous and complex landscapes such as those observed in the Mediterranean basin. In our study, a spectral classification method of a LANDSAT-5 TM imagery that uses several binomial logistic regression models was developed, evaluated and compared to the familiar parametric maximum likelihood algorithm. The classification approach based on logistic regression modelling was extended to a contextual one by using autocovariates to consider spatial dependencies of every pixel with its neighbours. Finally, the maximum likelihood algorithm was upgraded to contextual by considering typicality, a measure which indicates the strength of class membership. The use of logistic regression for broad-scale land cover classification presented higher overall accuracy (75.61%), although not statistically significant, than the maximum likelihood algorithm (64.23%), even when the latter was refined following a spatial approach based on Mahalanobis distance (66.67%). However, the consideration of the spatial autocovariate in the logistic models significantly improved the fit of the models and increased the overall accuracy from 75.61% to 80.49%.