The impact of the proposed revised Australia's microbiological monitoring programme for beef and sheep meat exported to the EU.

The European Commission asks scientific and technical assistance from EFSA to determine the impact of the revision of the Australian monitoring programme on its ability to detect microbiological contamination. Considering that, in 2010, the European Commission determined the current Australian monitoring programme to be equivalent to the EU requirements for microbiological monitoring further to an EFSA scientific assessment, the current and proposed programmes were described and the total number of alerts was compared using a probabilistic modelling approach. In the current programme, only beef and sheep carcasses are monitored using three-class moving window sampling plans, while in the proposed programme, carcass, bulk meat, primal and offal are monitored using four two-class sampling plans and Salmonella testing is excluded. The models revealed that the current programme provides a higher number of alerts for APC, while the proposed monitoring programme provides a higher number of alerts for E. coli. For APC and E. coli combined, the mean, 5th and 95th centiles of the uncertainty distribution of the total number of alerts in the current and the proposed monitoring programme are 201 [179, 227] and 172 [149, 194] for beef, and 199 [175, 222] and 2897 [2795, 3008] for sheep, respectively. For Salmonella, there are no alerts for the proposed programme since sampling is excluded while for the current programme, the estimated mean, 5th and 95th centiles of the uncertainty distribution of the number of alerts for a 5-year period were 143 [126, 144] for heifer/steer, 1.6 [0, 4] for cow/bull and 0 [0, 0] for lamb/sheep. Overall, for APC and E. coli, the estimated total number of alerts was similar (beef) or higher (sheep) for the proposed compared to the current programme. In contrast, Salmonella sampling is excluded from the proposed programme and thus cannot detect the number of current alerts.

Public health aspects of Vibrio spp. related to the consumption of seafood in the EU.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus and non-O1/non-O139 Vibrio cholerae are the Vibrio spp. of highest relevance for public health in the EU through seafood consumption. Infection with V. parahaemolyticus is associated with the haemolysins thermostable direct haemolysin (TDH) and TDH-related haemolysin (TRH) and mainly leads to acute gastroenteritis. V. vulnificus infections can lead to sepsis and death in susceptible individuals. V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139 can cause mild gastroenteritis or lead to severe infections, including sepsis, in susceptible individuals. The pooled prevalence estimate in seafood is 19.6% (95% CI 13.7-27.4), 6.1% (95% CI 3.0-11.8) and 4.1% (95% CI 2.4-6.9) for V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus and non-choleragenic V. cholerae, respectively. Approximately one out of five V. parahaemolyticus-positive samples contain pathogenic strains. A large spectrum of antimicrobial resistances, some of which are intrinsic, has been found in vibrios isolated from seafood or food-borne infections in Europe. Genes conferring resistance to medically important antimicrobials and associated with mobile genetic elements are increasingly detected in vibrios. Temperature and salinity are the most relevant drivers for Vibrio abundance in the aquatic environment. It is anticipated that the occurrence and levels of the relevant Vibrio spp. in seafood will increase in response to coastal warming and extreme weather events, especially in low-salinity/brackish waters. While some measures, like high-pressure processing, irradiation or depuration reduce the levels of Vibrio spp. in seafood, maintaining the cold chain is important to prevent their growth. Available risk assessments addressed V. parahaemolyticus in various types of seafood and V. vulnificus in raw oysters and octopus. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment relevant in an EU context would be V. parahaemolyticus in bivalve molluscs (oysters), evaluating the effect of mitigations, especially in a climate change scenario. Knowledge gaps related to Vibrio spp. in seafood and aquatic environments are identified and future research needs are prioritised.

Scientific Committee guidance on appraising and integrating evidence from epidemiological studies for use in EFSA's scientific assessments.

EFSA requested its Scientific Committee to prepare a guidance document on appraising and integrating evidence from epidemiological studies for use in EFSA's scientific assessments. The guidance document provides an introduction to epidemiological studies and illustrates the typical biases, which may be present in different epidemiological study designs. It then describes key epidemiological concepts relevant for evidence appraisal. This includes brief explanations for measures of association, exposure assessment, statistical inference, systematic error and effect modification. The guidance then describes the concept of external validity and the principles of appraising epidemiological studies. The customisation of the study appraisal process is explained including tailoring of tools for assessing the risk of bias (RoB). Several examples of appraising experimental and observational studies using a RoB tool are annexed to the document to illustrate the application of the approach. The latter part of this guidance focuses on different steps of evidence integration, first within and then across different streams of evidence. With respect to risk characterisation, the guidance considers how evidence from human epidemiological studies can be used in dose-response modelling with several different options being presented. Finally, the guidance addresses the application of uncertainty factors in risk characterisation when using evidence from human epidemiological studies.

BSE risk posed by ruminant collagen and gelatine derived from bones.

The European Commission requested an estimation of the BSE risk (C-, L- and H-BSE) from gelatine and collagen derived from ovine, caprine or bovine bones, and produced in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 853/2004, or Regulation (EC) No 1069/2009 and its implementing Regulation (EU) No 142/2011. A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the BSE infectivity, measured in cattle oral infectious dose 50 (CoID50), in a small size batch of gelatine including one BSE-infected bovine or ovine animal at the clinical stage. The model was built on a scenario where all ruminant bones could be used for the production of gelatine and high-infectivity tissues remained attached to the skull (brain) and vertebral column (spinal cord). The risk and exposure pathways defined for humans and animals, respectively, were identified. Exposure routes other than oral via food and feed were considered and discussed but not assessed quantitatively. Other aspects were also considered as integrating evidence, like the epidemiological situation of the disease, the species barrier, the susceptibility of species to BSE and the assumption of an exponential dose-response relationship to determine the probability of BSE infection in ruminants. Exposure to infectivity in humans cannot be directly translated to risk of disease because the transmission barrier has not yet been quantified, although it is considered to be substantial, i.e. much greater amounts of infectivity would be needed to successfully infect a human and greater in the oral than in the parenteral route of exposure. The probability that no new case of BSE in the cattle or small ruminant population would be generated through oral exposure to gelatine made of ruminant bones is 99%-100% (almost certain) This conclusion is based on the current state of knowledge, the epidemiological situation of the disease and the current practices, and is also valid for collagen.

Update of the list of qualified presumption of safety (QPS) recommended microbiological agents intentionally added to food or feed as notified to EFSA 20: Suitability of taxonomic units notified to EFSA until March 2024.

The qualified presumption of safety (QPS) process was developed to provide a safety assessment approach for microorganisms intended for use in food or feed chains. In the period covered by this statement, no new information was found that would change the status of previously recommended QPS TUs. The TUs in the QPS list were updated based on a verification, against their respective authoritative databases, of the correctness of the names and completeness of synonyms. A new procedure has been established to ensure the TUs are kept up to date in relation to recent taxonomical insights. Of 83 microorganisms notified to EFSA between October 2023 and March 2024 (47 as feed additives, 25 as food enzymes or additives, 11 as novel foods), 75 were not evaluated because: 15 were filamentous fungi, 1 was Enterococcus faecium, 10 were Escherichia coli, 1 was a Streptomyces (all excluded from the QPS evaluation) and 48 were TUs that already have a QPS status. Two of the other eight notifications were already evaluated for a possible QPS status in the previous Panel Statement: Heyndrickxia faecalis (previously Weizmannia faecalis) and Serratia marcescens. One was notified at genus level so could not be assessed for QPS status. The other five notifications belonging to five TUs were assessed for possible QPS status. Akkermansia muciniphila and Actinomadura roseirufa were still not recommended for QPS status due to safety concerns. Rhizobium radiobacter can be recommended for QPS status with the qualification for production purposes. Microbacterium arborescens and Burkholderia stagnalis cannot be included in the QPS list due to a lack of body of knowledge for its use in the food and feed chain and for B. stagnalis also due to safety concerns. A. roseirufa and B. stagnalis have been excluded from further QPS assessment.

Re-evaluation of certain aspects of the EFSA Scientific Opinion of April 2010 on risk assessment of parasites in fishery products, based on new scientific data. Part 1: ToRs1-3.

Surveillance data published since 2010, although limited, showed that there is no evidence of zoonotic parasite infection in market quality Atlantic salmon, marine rainbow trout, gilthead seabream, turbot, meagre, Atlantic halibut, common carp and European catfish. No studies were found for greater amberjack, brown trout, African catfish, European eel and pikeperch. Anisakis pegreffii, A. simplex (s. s.) and Cryptocotyle lingua were found in European seabass, Atlantic bluefin tuna and/or cod, and Pseudamphistomum truncatum and Paracoenogonimus ovatus in tench, produced in open offshore cages or flow-through ponds or tanks. It is almost certain that fish produced in closed recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) or flow-through facilities with filtered water intake and exclusively fed heat-treated feed are free of zoonotic parasites. Since the last EFSA opinion, the UV-press and artificial digestion methods have been developed into ISO standards to detect parasites in fish, while new UV-scanning, optical, molecular and OMICs technologies and methodologies have been developed for the detection, visualisation, isolation and/or identification of zoonotic parasites in fish. Freezing and heating continue to be the most efficient methods to kill parasites in fishery products. High-pressure processing may be suitable for some specific products. Pulsed electric field is a promising technology although further development is needed. Ultrasound treatments were not effective. Traditional dry salting of anchovies successfully inactivated Anisakis. Studies on other traditional processes - air-drying and double salting (brine salting plus dry salting) - suggest that anisakids are successfully inactivated, but more data covering these and other parasites in more fish species and products is required to determine if these processes are always effective. Marinade combinations with anchovies have not effectively inactivated anisakids. Natural products, essential oils and plant extracts, may kill parasites but safety and organoleptic data are lacking. Advanced processing techniques for intelligent gutting and trimming are being developed to remove parasites from fish.

Evaluation of alternative methods of tunnel composting (submitted by the European Composting Network) II.

Two alternative methods for producing compost in a tunnel, from certain category (Cat.) 3 animal by-products (ABP) and other non-ABP material, were assessed. The first method proposed a minimum temperature of 55°C for 72 h and the second 60°C for 48 h, both with a maximum particle size of 200 mm. The assessment of the Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ) exclusively focused on Cat. 3 ABP materials (catering waste and processed foodstuffs of animal origin no longer intended for human consumption). The proposed composting processes were evaluated for their efficacy to achieve a reduction of at least 5 log10 of Enterococcus faecalis and Salmonella Senftenberg (775W, H2S negative) and at least 3 log10 of relevant thermoresistant viruses. The applicant provided a list of biological hazards that may enter the composting process and selected parvoviruses as the indicator of the thermoresistant viruses. The evidence provided by the applicant included: (a) literature data on thermal inactivation of biological hazards; (b) results from validation studies on the reduction of E. faecalis, Salmonella Senftenberg 775W H2S negative and canine parvovirus carried out in composting plants across Europe; (c) and experimental data from direct measurements of reduction of infectivity of murine parvovirus in compost material applying the time/temperature conditions of the two alternative methods. The evidence provided showed the capacity of the proposed alternative methods to reduce E. faecalis and Salmonella Senftenberg 775W H2S negative by at least 5 log10, and parvoviruses by at least 3 log10. The BIOHAZ Panel concluded that the two alternative methods under assessment can be considered to be equivalent to the processing method currently approved in the Commission Regulation (EU) No 142/2011.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Salmonella in fresh chicken patties.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has witnessed rapid development within the context of food safety in recent years. As a means of contributing to these advancements, a QMRA for Salmonella spp. in fresh chicken patties for the general European Union (EU) population was developed. A two-dimensional (Second Order) Monte-Carlo simulation method was used for separating variability and uncertainty of model's parameters. The stages of industrial processing, retail storage, domestic storage, and cooking in the domestic environment were considered in the exposure assessment. For hazard characterization, a dose-response model was developed by combining 8 published dose-response models using a Pert distribution for describing uncertainty. The QMRA model predicted a mean probability of illness of 1.19*10-4 (5.28*10-5 - 3.57*10-4 95 % C.I.), and a mean annual number of illnesses per 100,000 people of 2.13 (0.96 - 6.59 95 % C.I.). Moreover, sensitivity analysis was performed, and variability in cooking preferences was found to be the most influential model parameter (r = -0.39), followed by dose-response related variability (r = 0.22), and variability in the concentration of Salmonella spp. at the time of introduction at the processing facility (r = 0.11). Various mitigation strategy scenarios were tested, from which, "increasing the internal temperature of cooking" and "decreasing shelf life" were estimated to be the most effective in reducing the predicted risk of illness. Salmonella-related illnesses exhibit particularly high severity, making them some of the most prominent zoonotic diseases in the EU. Regular monitoring of this hazard in order to further highlight its related parameters and causes is a necessary procedure. This study not only provides an updated assessment of Salmonella spp. risk associated with chicken patties, but also facilitates the identification of crucial targets for scientific investigation and implementation of real-world intervention strategies.

Development of a quantitative microbiological spoilage risk assessment (QMSRA) model for cooked ham sliced at retail.

A quantitative microbiological spoilage risk assessment model (QMSRA) for cooked ham sliced at retail was developed based on a stochastic growth model for lactic acid bacteria (LAB), which are considered as the specific spoilage organisms (SSO), and a "spoilage-response" relationship characterizing the variability in consumer's perception of spoilage. In a simulation involving 10,000 cooked ham purchases, the QMSRA model predicted a median of zero spoilage events for up to 4.5 days of storage. After storage times of 5 and 6 days, the model predicted 1,790 and 8,570 spoilage events, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that domestic storage temperature was the most significant factor affecting LAB concentration in cooked ham, followed by the LAB contamination level at slicing. A scenario analysis was performed testing better temperature control of consumer's refrigerators, better hygiene conditions during slicing and a combination of the two strategies. Among the tested scenarios, a 2 log reduction in the LAB contamination at slicing combined with a 2 °C decrease in domestic storage temperature resulted in zero risk of spoilage for up to 12 days of storage. The QMSRA model developed in the present study can be a useful tool for quality management decisions.

Persistence of microbiological hazards in food and feed production and processing environments.

Listeria monocytogenes (in the meat, fish and seafood, dairy and fruit and vegetable sectors), Salmonella enterica (in the feed, meat, egg and low moisture food sectors) and Cronobacter sakazakii (in the low moisture food sector) were identified as the bacterial food safety hazards most relevant to public health that are associated with persistence in the food and feed processing environment (FFPE). There is a wide range of subtypes of these hazards involved in persistence in the FFPE. While some specific subtypes are more commonly reported as persistent, it is currently not possible to identify universal markers (i.e. genetic determinants) for this trait. Common risk factors for persistence in the FFPE are inadequate zoning and hygiene barriers; lack of hygienic design of equipment and machines; and inadequate cleaning and disinfection. A well-designed environmental sampling and testing programme is the most effective strategy to identify contamination sources and detect potentially persistent hazards. The establishment of hygienic barriers and measures within the food safety management system, during implementation of hazard analysis and critical control points, is key to prevent and/or control bacterial persistence in the FFPE. Once persistence is suspected in a plant, a 'seek-and-destroy' approach is frequently recommended, including intensified monitoring, the introduction of control measures and the continuation of the intensified monitoring. Successful actions triggered by persistence of L. monocytogenes are described, as well as interventions with direct bactericidal activity. These interventions could be efficient if properly validated, correctly applied and verified under industrial conditions. Perspectives are provided for performing a risk assessment for relevant combinations of hazard and food sector to assess the relative public health risk that can be associated with persistence, based on bottom-up and top-down approaches. Knowledge gaps related to bacterial food safety hazards associated with persistence in the FFPE and priorities for future research are provided.

Update of the list of qualified presumption of safety (QPS) recommended microbiological agents intentionally added to food or feed as notified to EFSA 19: Suitability of taxonomic units notified to EFSA until September 2023.

The qualified presumption of safety (QPS) process was developed to provide a safety assessment approach for microorganisms intended for use in food or feed chains. The QPS approach is based on an assessment of published data for each taxonomic unit (TU), with respect to its taxonomic identity, the body of relevant knowledge and safety concerns. Safety concerns identified for a TU are, where possible, confirmed at the species/strain or product level and reflected by 'qualifications'. In the period covered by this Statement, no new information was found that would change the status of previously recommended QPS TUs. Of 71 microorganisms notified to EFSA between April and September 2023 (30 as feed additives, 22 as food enzymes or additives, 7 as novel foods and 12 from plant protection products [PPP]), 61 were not evaluated because: 26 were filamentous fungi, 1 was Enterococcus faecium, 5 were Escherichia coli, 1 was a bacteriophage (all excluded from the QPS evaluation) and 28 were TUs that already have a QPS status. The other 10 notifications belonged to 9 TUs which were evaluated for a possible QPS status: Ensifer adhaerens and Heyndrickxia faecalis did not get the QPS recommendation due to the limited body of knowledge about their occurrence in the food and/or feed chains and Burkholderia ubonensis also due to its ability to generate biologically active compounds with antimicrobial activity; Klebsiella pneumoniae, Serratia marcescens and Pseudomonas putida due to safety concerns. K. pneumoniae is excluded from future QPS evaluations. Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is recommended for QPS status with the qualification 'for production purposes only'; Clostridium tyrobutyricum is recommended for QPS status with the qualification 'absence of genetic determinants for toxigenic activity'; Candida oleophila has been added as a synonym of Yarrowia lipolytica. The Panel clarifies the extension of the QPS status for genetically modified strains.

Microbiological hazards associated with the use of water in the post-harvest handling and processing operations of fresh and frozen fruits, vegetables and herbs (ffFVHs). Part 1 (outbreak data analysis, literature review and stakeholder questionnaire).

The contamination of water used in post-harvest handling and processing operations of fresh and frozen fruit, vegetables and herbs (ffFVHs) is a global concern. The most relevant microbial hazards associated with this water are: Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., human pathogenic Escherichia coli and enteric viruses, which have been linked to multiple outbreaks associated with ffFVHs in the European Union (EU). Contamination (i.e. the accumulation of microbiological hazards) of the process water during post-harvest handling and processing operations is affected by several factors including: the type and contamination of the FVHs being processed, duration of the operation and transfer of microorganisms from the product to the water and vice versa, etc. For food business operators (FBOp), it is important to maintain the microbiological quality of the process water to assure the safety of ffFVHs. Good manufacturing practices (GMP) and good hygienic practices (GHP) related to a water management plan and the implementation of a water management system are critical to maintain the microbiological quality of the process water. Identified hygienic practices include technical maintenance of infrastructure, training of staff and cooling of post-harvest process water. Intervention strategies (e.g. use of water disinfection treatments and water replenishment) have been suggested to maintain the microbiological quality of process water. Chlorine-based disinfectants and peroxyacetic acid have been reported as common water disinfection treatments. However, given current practices in the EU, evidence of their efficacy under industrial conditions is only available for chlorine-based disinfectants. The use of water disinfection treatments must be undertaken following an appropriate water management strategy including validation, operational monitoring and verification. During operational monitoring, real-time information on process parameters related to the process and product, as well as the water and water disinfection treatment(s) are necessary. More specific guidance for FBOp on the validation, operational monitoring and verification is needed.

Guidance on protocol development for EFSA generic scientific assessments.

EFSA Strategy 2027 outlines the need for fit-for-purpose protocols for EFSA generic scientific assessments to aid in delivering trustworthy scientific advice. This EFSA Scientific Committee guidance document helps address this need by providing a harmonised and flexible framework for developing protocols for EFSA generic assessments. The guidance replaces the 'Draft framework for protocol development for EFSA's scientific assessments' published in 2020. The two main steps in protocol development are described. The first is problem formulation, which illustrates the objectives of the assessment. Here a new approach to translating the mandated Terms of Reference into scientifically answerable assessment questions and sub-questions is proposed: the 'APRIO' paradigm (Agent, Pathway, Receptor, Intervention and Output). Owing to its cross-cutting nature, this paradigm is considered adaptable and broadly applicable within and across the various EFSA domains and, if applied using the definitions given in this guidance, is expected to help harmonise the problem formulation process and outputs and foster consistency in protocol development. APRIO may also overcome the difficulty of implementing some existing frameworks across the multiple EFSA disciplines, e.g. the PICO/PECO approach (Population, Intervention/Exposure, Comparator, Outcome). Therefore, although not mandatory, APRIO is recommended. The second step in protocol development is the specification of the evidence needs and the methods that will be applied for answering the assessment questions and sub-questions, including uncertainty analysis. Five possible approaches to answering individual (sub-)questions are outlined: using evidence from scientific literature and study reports; using data from databases other than bibliographic; using expert judgement informally collected or elicited via semi-formal or formal expert knowledge elicitation processes; using mathematical/statistical models; and - not covered in this guidance - generating empirical evidence ex novo. The guidance is complemented by a standalone 'template' for EFSA protocols that guides the users step by step through the process of planning an EFSA scientific assessment.

Statement on how to interpret the QPS qualification on 'acquired antimicrobial resistance genes'.

The qualified presumption of safety (QPS) approach was developed to provide a regularly updated generic pre-evaluation of the safety of microorganisms intended for use in the food or feed chains. Safety concerns identified for a taxonomic unit (TU) are, where possible, confirmed at the species/strain or product level and reflected by 'qualifications' which should be assessed at strain and/or product level by EFSA's Scientific Panels. The generic qualification 'the strains should not harbour any acquired antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes to clinically relevant antimicrobials' applies to all QPS bacterial TUs. The different EFSA risk assessment areas use the same approach to assess the qualification related to AMR genes. In this statement, the terms 'intrinsic' and 'acquired' AMR genes were defined for the purpose of EFSA's risk assessments, and they apply to bacteria used in the food and feed chains. A bioinformatic approach is proposed for demonstrating the 'intrinsic'/'acquired' nature of an AMR gene. All AMR genes that confer resistance towards 'critically important', 'highly important' and 'important' antimicrobials, as defined by the World Health Organisation (WHO), found as hits, need to be considered as hazards (for humans, animals and environment) and need further assessment. Genes identified as responsible for 'intrinsic' resistance could be considered as being of no concern in the frame of the EFSA risk assessment. 'Acquired' AMR genes resulting in a resistant phenotype should be considered as a concern. If the presence of the 'acquired' AMR gene is not leading to phenotypic resistance, further case-by-case assessment is necessary.

Update of the list of qualified presumption of safety (QPS) recommended microbiological agents intentionally added to food or feed as notified to EFSA 18: Suitability of taxonomic units notified to EFSA until March 2023.

The qualified presumption of safety (QPS) approach was developed to provide a regularly updated generic pre-evaluation of the safety of microorganisms, intended for use in the food or feed chains, to support the work of EFSA's Scientific Panels. The QPS approach is based on an assessment of published data for each agent, with respect to its taxonomic identity, the body of relevant knowledge and safety concerns. Safety concerns identified for a taxonomic unit (TU) are, where possible, confirmed at the species/strain or product level and reflected by 'qualifications'. In the period covered by this Statement, no new information was found that would change the status of previously recommended QPS TUs. Of 38 microorganisms notified to EFSA between October 2022 and March 2023 (inclusive) (28 as feed additives, 5 as food enzymes, food additives and flavourings, 5 as novel foods), 34 were not evaluated because: 8 were filamentous fungi, 4 were Enterococcus faecium and 2 were Escherichia coli (taxonomic units that are excluded from the QPS evaluation) and 20 were taxonomic units (TUs) that already have a QPS status. Three of the other four TUs notified within this period were evaluated for the first time for a possible QPS status: Anaerobutyricum soehngenii, Stutzerimonas stutzeri (former Pseudomonas stutzeri) and Nannochloropsis oculata. Microorganism strain DSM 11798 has also been notified in 2015 and as its taxonomic unit is notified as a strain not a species, it is not suitable for the QPS approach. A. soehngenii and N. oculata are not recommended for the QPS status due to a limited body of knowledge of its use in the food and feed chains. S. stutzeri is not recommended for inclusion in the QPS list based on safety concerns and limited information about the exposure of animals and humans through the food and feed chains.

Use of risk assessment and predictive microbiology in regulatory science related to the scientific opinions of the EFSA BIOHAZ Panel.

EFSA's Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ Panel) deals with questions on biological hazards relating to food safety and food-borne diseases. This covers food-borne zoonoses, transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, antimicrobial resistance, food microbiology, food hygiene, animal-by products, and associated waste management issues. The scientific assessments are diverse and frequently the development of new methodological approaches is required to deal with a mandate. Among the many risk factors, product characteristics (pH, water activity etc.), time and temperature of processing and storage along the food supply chain are highly relevant for assessing the biological risks. Therefore, predictive microbiology becomes an essential element of the assessments. Uncertainty analysis is incorporated in all BIOHAZ scientific assessments, to meet the general requirement for transparency. Assessments should clearly and unambiguously state what sources of uncertainty have been identified and their impact on the conclusions of the assessment. Four recent BIOHAZ Scientific Opinions are presented to illustrate the use of predictive modelling and quantitative microbial risk assessment principles in regulatory science. The Scientific Opinion on the guidance on date marking and related food information, gives a general overview on the use of predictive microbiology for shelf-life assessment. The Scientific Opinion on the efficacy and safety of high-pressure processing of food provides an example of inactivation modelling and compliance with performance criteria. The Scientific Opinion on the use of the so-called 'superchilling' technique for the transport of fresh fishery products illustrates the combination of heat transfer and microbial growth modelling. Finally, the Scientific Opinion on the delayed post-mortem inspection in ungulates, shows how variability and uncertainty, were quantitatively embedded in assessing the probability of Salmonella detection on carcasses, via stochastic modelling and expert knowledge elicitation.

Assessment on the efficacy of methods 2 to 5 and method 7 set out in Commission Regulation (EU) No 142/2011 to inactivate relevant pathogens when producing processed animal protein of porcine origin intended to feed poultry and aquaculture animals.

An assessment was conducted on the level of inactivation of relevant pathogens that could be present in processed animal protein of porcine origin intended to feed poultry and aquaculture animals when methods 2 to 5 and method 7, as detailed in Regulation (EU) No 142/2011, are applied. Five approved scenarios were selected for method 7. Salmonella Senftenberg, Enterococcus faecalis, spores of Clostridium perfringens and parvoviruses were shortlisted as target indicators. Inactivation parameters for these indicators were extracted from extensive literature search and a recent EFSA scientific opinion. An adapted Bigelow model was fitted to retrieved data to estimate the probability that methods 2 to 5, in coincidental and consecutive modes, and the five scenarios of method 7 are able to achieve a 5 log10 and a 3 log10 reduction of bacterial indicators and parvoviruses, respectively. Spores of C. perfringens were the indicator with the lowest probability of achieving the target reduction by methods 2 to 5, in coincidental and consecutive mode, and by the five considered scenarios of method 7. An expert knowledge elicitation was conducted to estimate the certainty of achieving a 5 log10 reduction of spores of C. perfringens considering the results of the model and additional evidence. A 5 log10 reduction of C. perfringens spores was judged: 99-100% certain for methods 2 and 3 in coincidental mode; 98-100% certain for method 7 scenario 3; 80-99% certain for method 5 in coincidental mode; 66-100% certain for method 4 in coincidental mode and for method 7 scenarios 4 and 5; 25-75% certain for method 7 scenario 2; and 0-5% certain for method 7 scenario 1. Higher certainty is expected for methods 2 to 5 in consecutive mode compared to coincidental mode.

Quantitative microbiological spoilage risk assessment (QMSRA) of fresh poultry fillets during storage at retail.

A quantitative microbiological spoilage risk assessment model (QMSRA) of aerobically stored fresh poultry fillets was developed based on pseudomonads growth and metabolic activity. Simultaneous microbiological and sensory analyses were performed in poultry fillets to evaluate the relation between pseudomonads concentration and sensory rejection due to spoilage. The analysis showed no organoleptic rejection at pseudomonads concentrations less than 6.08 log CFU/cm2. For higher concentrations, a "spoilage-response" relationship was developed using a beta-Poisson model. The above relationship was combined with a stochastic modeling approach for pseudomonads growth by taking into account both variability and uncertainty of factors affecting spoilage. To enhance the reliability of the developed QMSRA model, uncertainty was quantified and separated from variability using a second order Monte Carlo simulation. For a batch of 10,000 units, the QMSRA model predicted a median number of 11, 80, 295, 733 and 1,389 spoiled units for retail storage times of 6,7, 8, 9 and 10 days, respectively, while no spoiled units were predicted for storage time of up to 5 days at retail. Scenario analysis showed that a reduction of 1 log in the pseudomonads concentration at the time of packaging or 1 °C in retail storage temperature results in up to 90% reduction of the spoiled units while the combination of the above interventions can reduce the risk of spoilage by up to 99%, depending on the storage time. The poultry industry can utilize the QMSRA model as a transparent scientific basis to support food quality management decisions in determining appropriate expiration dates which maximize the utilization of the product's "true" shelf life while minimize the risk of spoilage to an acceptable level. Furthermore, the scenario analysis can provide the necessary components for an effective cost-benefit analysis, enabling the identification and comparison of appropriate strategies for extending the shelf life of fresh poultry products.

Monitoring of chronic wasting disease (CWD) (IV).

The European Commission requested an analysis of the Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) monitoring programme in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland (9 January 2017-28 February 2022). Thirteen cases were detected in reindeer, 15 in moose and 3 in red deer. They showed two phenotypes, distinguished by the presence or absence of detectable disease-associated normal cellular prion protein (PrP) in lymphoreticular tissues. CWD was detected for the first time in Finland, Sweden and in other areas of Norway. In countries where the disease was not detected, the evidence was insufficient to rule out its presence altogether. Where cases were detected, the prevalence was below 1%. The data also suggest that the high-risk target groups for surveillance should be revised, and 'road kill' removed. Data show that, in addition to differences in age and sex, there are differences in the prion protein gene (PRNP) genotypes between positive and negative wild reindeer. A stepwise framework has been proposed with expanded minimum background surveillance to be implemented in European countries with relevant cervid species. Additional surveillance may include ad hoc surveys for four different objectives, specific to countries with/without cases, focusing on parallel testing of obex and lymph nodes from adult cervids in high-risk target groups, sustained over time, using sampling units and a data-driven design prevalence. Criteria for assessing the probability of CWD presence have been outlined, based on the definition of the geographical area, an annual assessment of risk of introduction, sustained minimum background surveillance, training and engagement of stakeholders and a surveillance programme based on data-driven parameters. All positive cases should be genotyped. Sample sizes for negative samples have been proposed to detect and estimate the frequency of PRNP polymorphisms. Double-strand sequencing of the entire PRNP open reading frame should be undertaken for all selected samples, with data collated in a centralised collection system at EU level.