Large reductions in nutrient losses needed to avoid future coastal eutrophication across Europe.

Rapid technological development in agriculture and fast urbanization have increased nutrient losses in Europe. High nutrient export to seas causes coastal eutrophication and harmful algal blooms. This study aims to assess the river exports of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and identify required reductions to avoid coastal eutrophication in Europe under global change. We modelled nutrient export by 594 rivers in 2050 for a baseline scenario using the new MARINA-Nutrients model for Europe. Nutrient export to European seas is expected to increase by 13-28% under global change. Manure and fertilizers together contribute to river export of N by 35% in 2050. Sewage systems are responsible for 70% of future P export by rivers. By 2050, the top ten polluted rivers for N and P host 42% of the European population. Avoiding future coastal eutrophication requires over 47% less N and up to 77% less P exports by these polluted rivers.

How nutrient retention and TN:TP ratios depend on ecosystem state in thousands of Chinese lakes.

Worldwide, anthropogenic activities threaten surface water quality by aggravating eutrophication and increasing total nitrogen to total phosphorus (TN:TP) ratios. In hydrologically connected systems, water quality management may benefit from in-ecosystem nutrient retention by preventing nutrient transport to downstream systems. However, nutrient retention may also alter TN:TP ratios with unforeseen consequences for downstream water quality. Here, we aim to increase understanding of how nutrient retention may influence nutrient transport to downstream systems to improve long-term water quality management. We analyzed lake ecosystem state, in-lake nutrient retention, and nutrient transport (ratios) for 3482 Chinese lakes using the lake process-based ecosystem model PCLake+. We compared a low climate change and sustainability-, and a high climate change and economy-focused scenario for 2050 against 2012. In both scenarios, the effect of nutrient input reduction outweighs that of temperature rise, resulting in more lakes with good ecological water quality (i.e., macrophyte-dominated) than in 2012. Generally, the sustainability-focused scenario shows a more promising future for water quality than the economy-focused scenario. Nevertheless, most lakes remain phytoplankton-dominated. The shift to more macrophyte-dominated lakes in 2050 is accompanied by higher nutrient retention fractions and less nutrient transport to downstream waterbodies. In-lake nutrient retention also alters the water's TN:TP ratio, depending on the inflow TN:TP ratio and the ecosystem state. In 2050 higher TN:TP ratios are expected in the outflows of lakes than in 2012, especially for the sustainability-focused scenario with strong TP loading reduction. However, the downstream impact of increased TN:TP ratios depends on actual nutrient loadings and the limiting nutrient in the receiving system. We conclude that nutrient input reductions, improved water quality, higher in-lake nutrient retention fractions, and lower nutrient transport to downstream waterbodies go hand in hand. Therefore, water quality management could benefit even more from nutrient pollution reduction than one would expect at first sight.

Setting goals for agricultural nitrogen emission reduction to ensure safe air and groundwater quality: A case study of Quzhou, the North China Plain.

Setting nitrogen (N) emission targets for agricultural systems is crucial to prevent to air and groundwater pollution, yet such targets are rarely defined at the county level. In this study, we employed a forecasting-and-back casting approach to establish human health-based nitrogen targets for air and groundwater quality in Quzhou county, located in the North China Plain. By adopting the World Health Organization (WHO) phase I standard for PM2.5 concentration (35 µg m-3) and a standard of 11.3 mg NO3--N L-1 for nitrate in drinking water, we found that ammonia (NH3) emissions from the entire county must be reduced by at least 3.2 kilotons year-1 in 2050 to meet the WHO's PM2.5 phase I standard. Additionally, controlling other pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) is necessary, with required reductions ranging from 16% to 64% during 2017-2050. Furthermore, to meet the groundwater quality standard, nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N) leaching to groundwater should not exceed 0.8 kilotons year-1 by 2050. Achieving this target would require a 50% reduction in NH3 emissions and a 21% reduction in NO3--N leaching from agriculture in Quzhou in 2050 compared to their respective levels in 2017 (5.0 and 2.1 kilotons, respectively). Our developed method and the resulting N emission targets can support the development of environmentally-friendly agriculture by facilitating the design of control strategies to minimize agricultural N losses.

Causes of coastal waters pollution with nutrients, chemicals and plastics worldwide.

Worldwide, coastal waters contain pollutants such as nutrients, plastics, and chemicals. Rivers export those pollutants, but their sources are not well studied. Our study aims to quantify river exports of nutrients, chemicals, and plastics to coastal waters by source and sub-basin worldwide. We developed a new MARINA-Multi model for 10,226 sub-basins. The global modelled river export to seas is approximately 40,000 kton of nitrogen, 1,800 kton of phosphorous, 45 kton of microplastics, 490 kton of macroplastics, 400 ton of triclosan and 220 ton of diclofenac. Around three-quarters of these pollutants are transported to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Diffuse sources contribute by 95-100 % to nitrogen (agriculture) and macroplastics (mismanaged waste) in seas. Point sources (sewage) contribute by 40-95 % to phosphorus and microplastics in seas. Almost 45 % of global sub-basin areas are multi-pollutant hotspots hosting 89 % of the global population. Our findings could support strategies for reducing multiple pollutants in seas.

River export of macro- and microplastics to seas by sources worldwide.

Seas are polluted with macro- (>5 mm) and microplastics (<5 mm). However, few studies account for both types when modeling water quality, thus limiting our understanding of the origin (e.g., basins) and sources of plastics. In this work, we model riverine macro- and microplastic exports to seas to identify their main sources in over ten thousand basins. We estimate that rivers export approximately 0.5 million tons of plastics per year worldwide. Microplastics are dominant in almost 40% of the basins in Europe, North America and Oceania, because of sewage effluents. Approximately 80% of the global population live in river basins where macroplastics are dominant because of mismanaged solid waste. These basins include many African and Asian rivers. In 10% of the basins, macro- and microplastics in seas (as mass) are equally important because of high sewage effluents and mismanaged solid waste production. Our results could be useful to prioritize reduction policies for plastics.

The Plastic Age: River Pollution in China from Crop Production and Urbanization.

Many rivers are polluted with macro (>5 mm)- and microplastics (<5 mm). We assess plastic pollution in rivers from crop production and urbanization in 395 Chinese sub-basins. We develop and evaluate an integrated model (MARINA-Plastics model, China-1.0) that considers plastics in crop production (plastic films from mulching and greenhouses, diffuse sources), sewage systems (point sources), and mismanaged solid waste (diffuse source). Model results indicated that 716 kton of plastics entered Chinese rivers in 2015. Macroplastics in rivers account for 85% of the total amount of plastics (in mass). Around 71% of this total plastic is from about one-fifth of the basin area. These sub-basins are located in central and eastern China, and they are densely populated with intensive agricultural activities. Agricultural plastic films contribute 20% to plastics in Chinese rivers. Moreover, 65% of plastics are from mismanaged waste in urban and rural areas. Sewage is responsible for the majority of microplastics in rivers. Our study could support the design of plastic pollution control policies and thus contribute to green development in China and elsewhere.

Sources of nitrogen in reservoirs of the Haihe basin (China) 2012-2017.

Nitrogen (N) is essential for agricultural production. However, too much N can pollute waters. The Chinese government published several policies to reduce N losses from agricultural production to waters since 2015, which may influence river export of N to reservoirs and lakes and their pollution sources. This study aimed to quantify the trends of river export of N to five reservoirs in the Haihe basin and analyze the main sources of this N pollution from 2012 to 2017. This was done by upscaling the MARINA-Lakes (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to lAkes) model to the Haihe basin, including 22 sub-basins. From 2012 to 2017, river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) to the Haihe reservoirs decreased by 11-51%, associated with a decreased contribution of point sources and an increased contribution of diffuse sources for the whole study area Sub-basins draining into Reservoir Pan-Da contributed over one-third to the total TDN export by rivers in 2012 and 2017. The share of diffuse sources in river export of TDN to the Guanting reservoir reached 63% in 2017. Among the TDN diffuse sources, the contribution of animal manure (a diffuse source) to river export of diffuse TDN increased to 28%, 25%, and 23% for the sub-basins of Reservoir Miyun, Pan-da, and Guanting from 2012 to 2017, respectively. Among the TDN point sources, direct manure discharges were the main contributors to the river export of point TDN to the Haihe reservoirs in 2012. By 2017, direct discharges of untreated human waste became another important point source, especially for the Lake Baiyangdian and Reservoir Gang-Huang. This study concludes the need for specific agricultural N management options for different reservoirs of the Haihe basin.

Comparing critical source areas for the sediment and nutrients of calibrated and uncalibrated models in a plateau watershed in southwest China.

Controlling non-point source pollution is often difficult and costly. Therefore, focusing on areas that contribute the most, so-called critical source areas (CSAs), can have economic and ecological benefits. CSAs are often determined using a modelling approach, yet it has proved difficult to calibrate the models in regions with limited data availability. Since identifying CSAs is based on the relative contributions of sub-basins to the total load, it has been suggested that uncalibrated models could be used to identify CSAs to overcome data scarcity issues. Here, we use the SWAT model to study the extent to which an uncalibrated model can be applied to determine CSAs. We classify and rank sub-basins to identify CSAs for sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Fengyu River Watershed (China) with and without model calibration. The results show high similarity (81%-93%) between the identified sediment and TP CSA number and locations before and after calibration both on the yearly and seasonal scale. For TN alone, the results show moderate similarity on the yearly scale (73%). This may be because, in our study area, TN is determined more by groundwater flow after calibration than by surface water flow. We conclude that CSA identification with the uncalibrated model for TP is always good because its CSA number and locations changed least, and for sediment, it is generally satisfactory. The use of the uncalibrated model for TN is acceptable, as its CSA locations did not change after calibration; however, the TN CSA number changed by over 60% compared to the figures before calibration on both yearly and seasonal scales. Therefore, we advise using an uncalibrated model to identify CSAs for TN only if water yield composition changes are expected to be limited. This study shows that CSAs can be identified based on relative loading estimates with uncalibrated models in data-deficient regions.

The future of the Black Sea: More pollution in over half of the rivers.

The population in the Black Sea region is expected to decline in the future. However, a better understanding of how river pollution is affected by declining trends in population and increasing trends in economic developments and urbanization is needed. This study aims to quantify future trends in point-source emissions of nutrients, microplastics, Cryptosporidium, and triclosan to 107 rivers draining into the Black Sea. We apply a multi-pollutant model for 2010, 2050, and 2100. In the future, over half of the rivers will be more polluted than in 2010. The population in 74 sub-basins may drop by over 25% in our economic scenario with poor wastewater treatment. Over two-thirds of the people will live in cities and the economy may grow 9-fold in the region. Advanced wastewater treatment could minimize trade-offs between economy and pollution: our Sustainability scenario projects a 68-98% decline in point-source pollution by 2100. Making this future reality will require coordinated international efforts.

Nitrogen in the Yangtze River Basin: Pollution Reduction through Coupling Crop and Livestock Production.

Livestock production poses a threat to water quality worldwide. A better understanding of the contribution of individual livestock species to nitrogen (N) pollution in rivers is essential to improve water quality. This paper aims to quantify inputs of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to the Yangtze River from different livestock species at multiple scales and explore ways for reducing these inputs through coupling crop and livestock production. We extended the previously developed model MARINA (Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs) with the NUFER (Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment, and Resource use) approach for livestock. Results show that DIN inputs to the Yangtze River vary across basins, sub-basins, and 0.5° grids, as well as across livestock species. In 2012, livestock production resulted in 2000 Gg of DIN inputs to the Yangtze River. Pig production was responsible for 55-85% of manure-related DIN inputs. Rivers in the downstream sub-basin received higher manure-related DIN inputs than rivers in the other sub-basins. Around 20% of the Yangtze basin is considered as a manure-related hotspot of river pollution. Recycling manure on cropland can avoid direct discharges of manure from pig production and thus reduce river pollution. The potential for recycling manure is larger in cereal production than in other crop species. Our results can help to identify effective solutions for coupling crop and livestock production in the Yangtze basin.

Nitrogen budgets for freshwater aquaculture and mariculture in a large tropical island - A case study for Hainan Island 1998-2018.

Nitrogen is an essential nutrient in aquaculture. It is also an important factor in coastal and river eutrophication. We present an island-scale model to study the nitrogen flows in different aquaculture systems in Hainan Island during 1998-2018. The result indicated that nitrogen losses associated with pond sludge, wastewater discharge and gaseous emission increased by a factor of 1.4, 4.6 and 3.2, respectively. Sludge and wastewater account for 84% of the total losses to the environment. During the past 20 years, aquacultural yields and the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) improved considerably in Hainan Island. Nevertheless, nitrogen losses to the environment increased significantly as well, with negative effects for local ecosystems. In the future, sustainable aquacultural practices are needed to improve NUE and to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment.

Past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socioeconomic development and climate change.

Increasing pesticide use pollutes Chinese surface waters. Pesticides often enter waters through surface runoff from agricultural fields. This occurs especially during heavy rainfall events. Socio-economic development and climate change may accelerate future loss of pesticides to surface waters due to increasing food production and rainfall events. The main objective of this study is to model past and future pesticide losses to Chinese waters under socio-economic development and climate change. To this end, we developed a pesticide model with local information to quantify the potential pesticide runoff from near-stream agriculture to surface waters after heavy rainfall. We project future trends in potential pesticide runoff. For this, we developed three scenarios: Sustainability, "Middle of the Road" and Economy-first. These scenarios are based on combined Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. We identified hotspots with high potential pesticide runoff. The results show that the potential pesticide runoff increased by 45% from 2000 to 2010, nationally. Over 50% of the national pesticide runoff in 2000 was in five provinces. Over 60% of the Chinese population lived in pesticide polluted hotspots in 2000. For the future, trends differ among scenarios and years. The largest increase is projected for the Economy-first scenario, where the potential pesticide runoff is projected to increase by 85% between 2010 and 2099. Future pesticide pollution hotspots are projected to concentrate in the south and south-east of China. This is the net-effect of high pesticide application, intensive crop production and high precipitation due to climate change. In our scenarios, 58%-84% of the population is projected to live in pesticide polluted hotspots from 2050 onwards. These projections can support the development of regional management strategies to control pesticide pollution in waters in the future.

Accounting for interactions between Sustainable Development Goals is essential for water pollution control in China.

Meeting the United Nations' (UN's) 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has become a worldwide mission. How these SDGs interrelate, however, is not well known. We assess the interactions between SDGs for the case of water pollution by nutrients in China. The results show 319 interactions between SDGs for clean water (SDGs 6 and 14) and other SDGs, of which 286 are positive (synergies) and 33 are negative (tradeoffs) interactions. We analyze six scenarios in China accounting for the cobenefits of water pollution control using a large-scale water quality model. We consider scenarios that benefit from synergies and avoid tradeoffs. Our results show that effective pollution control requires accounting for the interactions between SDGs. For instance, combining improved nutrient management, efficient food consumption, and climate mitigation is effective for simultaneously meeting SDGs 6 and 14 as well as other SDGs for food, cities and climate. Our study serves as an example of assessing SDG interactions in environmental policies in China as well as in other regions of the world.

Mitigating phosphorus pollution from detergents in the surface waters of China.

Phosphorus (P) from detergents contributes to water pollution and eutrophication. Understanding the impacts of detergent use on P inputs to surface waters and their main drivers is vital for supporting Sustainable Development Goals on clean water. This study aims to quantify past and future trends in P inputs to surface waters from detergent use in China. We modify the Model to Assess River Input of Nutrient to seAs (MARINA) model to assess the effects of past policies and explore options for the future on mitigating detergents P losses in China. The total consumption of detergents tripled from 2000 to 2018. However, P inputs to surface waters from detergent use decreased by 35% during these years. Although P losses vary across regions, most losses occurred in rural areas. Clearly, the P-free detergent policy which was initiated in the year 2000 has been effective. Without this policy, the detergent P losses would likely have increased fourfold during 2000-2018. In the future, detergent P inputs to surface waters in China may be further reduced to very low levels (95% reduction relative to 2018) by a combination of completely P-free detergents, an increasing urbanized population connected to sewage systems, and improving P removal in sewage treatment systems. Our results enhance the understanding of P pollution in surface waters from detergents and, illustrate the effectiveness of measures to control detergent P losses.

What is the pollution limit? Comparing nutrient loads with thresholds to improve water quality in Lake Baiyangdian.

Ecological thresholds are useful indicators for water quality managers to define limits to nutrient pollution. A common approach to estimating ecological thresholds is using critical nutrient loads. Critical nutrient loads are typically defined as the loads at which the phytoplankton chlorophyll-a exceeds a certain concentration. However, national policies, such as in China, use chemical indicators (nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations) rather than ecological indicators (phytoplankton chlorophyll-a) to assess water quality. In this study, we uniquely define the critical nutrient loads based on maximum allowable nutrient concentrations for lake Baiyangdian. We assess whether current and future nutrient loads in this lake comply with the Chinese Water Quality standards. To this end, we link two models (MARINA-Lakes and PCLake+). The PCLake+ model was applied to estimate the critical nutrient loads related to ecological thresholds for total nitrogen, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a. The current (i.e., 2012) and future (i.e., 2050) nutrient loads were derived from the water quality MARINA-Lakes model. Nitrogen loads exceeded the nitrogen threshold in 2012. Phosphorus loads were below all ecological thresholds in 2012. Ecological thresholds are exceeded in 2050 with limited environmental policies, and urbanization may increase nutrient loads above the ecological thresholds in 2050. Recycling and reallocating animal manure is needed to avoid future water pollution in Lake Baiyangdian. Our study highlights the need for effective policies for clean water based on policy-relevant indicators.

Nitrogen losses from food production in the North China Plain: A case study for Quzhou.

Nitrogen (N) management is essential for food security. The North China Plain is an important food producing region, but also a hotspot of N losses to the environment. This results in water, soil, and air pollution. In this study, we aim to quantify the relative contribution of different crops and animals to N losses, by taking the Quzhou county as a typical example in the North China Plain. We developed and applied a new version of the NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment, and Resource use (NUFER) model. Our model is based on updated information for N losses in Quzhou. Our results show that N losses to the environment from crop and animal production in Quzhou were approximately 9 kton in 2017. These high N losses can be explained by the low N use efficiency in food production because of poor N management. For crop production, wheat, maize, and vegetables contributed 80% to N losses. Ammonia emissions and N leaching have dominant shares in these N losses. Pigs and laying hens were responsible for 74% of N losses from animal production. Ammonia emissions to air and direct discharges of manure to water were the main contributors to these N losses. Effective reduction of N losses requires improving the nutrient management in crop (wheat, maize, vegetables) and animal (pigs, laying hens) production. Our work could support the Agricultural Green Development in the North China Plain.

Multi-pollutant assessment of river pollution from livestock production worldwide.

Livestock production is often a source of multiple pollutants in rivers. However, current assessments of water pollution seldomly take a multi-pollutant perspective, while this is essential for improving water quality. This study quantifies inputs of multiple pollutants to rivers from livestock production worldwide, by animal types and spatially explicit. We focus on nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and Cryptosporidium (pathogen). We developed the MARINA-Global-L (Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to seAs for Livetsock) model for 10,226 sub-basins and eleven livestock species. Global inputs to land from livestock are around 94 Tg N, 19 Tg P, and 2.9 × 1021 oocysts from Cryptosporidium in 2010. Over 57% of these amounts are from grazed animals. Asia, South America, and Africa account for over 68% of these amounts on land. The inputs to rivers are around 22 Tg Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN), 1.8 Tg Total Dissolved P (TDP), and 1.3 × 1021 oocysts in 2010. Cattle, pigs, and chickens are responsible for 74-88% of these pollutants in rivers. One-fourth of the global sub-basins can be considered pollution hotspots and contribute 71-95% to the TDN, TDP, and oocysts in rivers. Our study could contribute to effective manure management for individual livestock species in sub-basins to reduce multiple pollutants in rivers.

Modelling rotavirus concentrations in rivers: Assessing Uganda's present and future microbial water quality.

Faecal pathogens can be introduced into surface water through open defecation, illegal disposal and inadequate treatment of faecal sludge and wastewater. Despite sanitation improvements, poor countries are progressing slowly towards the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goal 6 by 2030. Sanitation-associated pathogenic contamination of surface waters impacted by future population growth, urbanization and climate change receive limited attention. Therefore, a model simulating human rotavirus river inputs and concentrations was developed combining population density, sanitation coverage, rotavirus incidence, wastewater treatment and environmental survival data, and applied to Uganda. Complementary surface runoff and river discharge data were used to produce spatially explicit rotavirus outputs for the year 2015 and for two scenarios in 2050. Urban open defecation contributed 87%, sewers 9% and illegal faecal sludge disposal 3% to the annual 15.6 log10 rotavirus river inputs in 2015. Monthly concentrations fell between -3.7 (Q5) and 2.6 (Q95) log10 particles per litre, with 1.0 and 2.0 median and mean log10 particles per litre, respectively. Spatially explicit outputs on 0.0833 × 0.0833° grids revealed hotspots as densely populated urban areas. Future population growth, urbanization and poor sanitation were stronger drivers of rotavirus concentrations in rivers than climate change. The model and scenario analysis can be applied to other locations.

Characterizing 19 thousand Chinese lakes, ponds and reservoirs by morphometric, climate and sediment characteristics.

Chinese lakes, including ponds and reservoirs, are increasingly threatened by algal blooms. Yet, each lake is unique, leading to large inter-lake variation in lake vulnerability to algal blooms. Here, we aim to assess the effects of unique lake characteristics on lake vulnerability to algal blooms. To this end, we built a novel and comprehensive database of lake morphometric, climate and sediment characteristics of 19,536 Chinese lakes, including ponds and reservoirs (>0.1 km2). We assessed lake characteristics for nine stratification classes and show that lakes, including ponds and reservoirs, in eastern China typically have a warm stratification class (Tavg>4 °C) and are slightly deeper than those in western China. Model results for representative lakes suggest that the most vulnerable lakes to algal blooms are in eastern China where pollution levels are also highest. Our characterization provides an important baseline to inform policymakers in what regions lakes are potentially most vulnerable to algal blooms.

Equality in river pollution control in China.

Water pollution is a serious problem in China. This study focuses on equality in pollution control in the Yangtze, Yellow and Pearl. We first quantified environmental targets for nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) at the river mouth. We used the Indicator for Coastal Eutrophication Potential and the Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA) to project river export of nutrients. Next, we allocated the environmental targets to sub-basins as allowable levels, based on a Gini optimization approach. We searched for minimum inequality in pollution per unit of GDP, population, basin area, and agricultural area. Our results indicate that without pollution control, the river export of nutrients in 2050 exceed allowable levels. To meet the allowable levels while striving for equality, total dissolved N and P exports from sub-basins need to be reduced by 60 to 97%. The required reductions are largest for sub-basins of the Yellow River. For P, reducing point source inputs to rivers (manure and sewage) may be enough to avoid that allowable levels are exceeded in many sub-basins. For N, more needs to be done. Some sub-basins need to reduce their pollution more than others. Equality considerations call for reducing both point (e.g. recycling manure resources on the land) and diffuse (improve nutrient use efficiencies in agriculture) sources of N in the rivers. Our study is the first to link a Gini based optimization approach with the MARINA model. It may support decision making aimed at cleaner production and at equality in pollution control.