Candidate name order effects in New Hampshire: Evidence from primaries and from general elections with party column ballots.

Research in a few U.S. states has shown that candidates listed first on ballots gain extra votes as a result. This study explored name order effects for the first time in New Hampshire, where such effects might be weak or entirely absent because of high political engagement and the use of party column ballots. In general elections (in 2012 and 2016) for federal offices and the governorship and in primaries (in 2000, 2002, and 2004), evidence of primacy effects appeared in 86% of the 84 tests, including the 2016 presidential race, when Donald Trump gained 1.7 percentage points from first listing, and Hillary Clinton gained 1.5 percentage points. Consistent with theoretical predictions, primacy effects were larger in primaries and for major-party candidates in general elections than for non-major-party candidates in general elections, more pronounced in less publicized contests, and stronger in contests without an incumbent running. All of this constitutes evidence of the reliability and generalizability of evidence on candidate name order effects and their moderators.

A Social Psychological Model of Scientific Practices: Explaining Research Practices and Outlining the Potential for Successful Reforms.

A crescendo of incidents have raised concerns about whether scientific practices in psychology may be suboptimal, sometimes leading to the publication, dissemination, and application of unreliable or misinterpreted findings. Psychology has been a leader in identifying possibly suboptimal practices and proposing reforms that might enhance the efficiency of the scientific process and the publication of robust evidence and interpretations. To help shape future efforts, this paper offers a model of the psychological and socio-structural forces and processes that may influence scientists' practices. The model identifies practices targeted by interventions and reforms, and which practices remain unaddressed. The model also suggests directions for empirical research to assess how best to enhance the effectiveness of psychological inquiry.

Moderation of classic social psychological effects by demographics in the U.S. adult population: New opportunities for theoretical advancement.

For decades, social psychologists have collected data primarily from college undergraduates and, recently, from haphazard samples of adults. Yet researchers have routinely presumed that thus observed treatment effects characterize "people" in general. Tests of seven highly cited social psychological phenomena (two involving opinion change resulting from social influence and five involving the use of heuristics in social judgments) using data collected from randomly sampled, representative groups of American adults documented generalizability of the six phenomena that have been replicated previously with undergraduate samples. The 1 phenomenon (a cross-over interaction revealing an ease of retrieval effect) that has not been replicated successfully previously in undergraduate samples was also not observed here. However, the observed effect sizes for the replicated phenomena were notably smaller on average than the meta-analytic effect sizes documented by past studies of college students. Furthermore, the phenomena were strongest among participants with the demographic characteristics of the college students who typically provided data for past published studies, even after correcting for publication bias in past studies using a new method, called the behaviorally-informed file-drawer adjustment. The six successful replications suggest that phenomena identified in traditional laboratory research also appear as expected in representative samples but more weakly, so observed effect sizes should be generalized with caution. The evidence of demographic moderators suggests interesting opportunities for future research to better understand the mechanisms of the effects and their limiting conditions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Correction: Perceptions of health risks of cigarette smoking: A new measure reveals widespread misunderstanding.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182063.].

Perceptions of health risks of cigarette smoking: A new measure reveals widespread misunderstanding.

Most Americans recognize that smoking causes serious diseases, yet many Americans continue to smoke. One possible explanation for this paradox is that perhaps Americans do not accurately perceive the extent to which smoking increases the probability of adverse health outcomes. This paper examines the accuracy of Americans' perceptions of the absolute risk, attributable risk, and relative risk of lung cancer, and assesses which of these beliefs drive Americans' smoking behavior. Using data from three national surveys, statistical analyses were performed by comparing means, medians, and distributions, and by employing Generalized Additive Models. Perceptions of relative risk were associated as expected with smoking onset and smoking cessation, whereas perceptions of absolute risk and attributable risk were not. Additionally, the relation of relative risk with smoking status was stronger among people who held their risk perceptions with more certainty. Most current smokers, former smokers, and never-smokers considerably underestimated the relative risk of smoking. If, as this paper suggests, people naturally think about the health consequences of smoking in terms of relative risk, smoking rates might be reduced if public understanding of the relative risks of smoking were more accurate and people held those beliefs with more confidence.

Attitude Strength.

Attitude strength has been the focus of a huge volume of research in psychology and related sciences for decades. The insights offered by this literature have tremendous value for understanding attitude functioning and structure and for the effective application of the attitude concept in applied settings. This is the first Annual Review of Psychology article on the topic, and it offers a review of theory and evidence regarding one of the most researched strength-related attitude features: attitude importance. Personal importance is attached to an attitude when the attitude is perceived to be relevant to self-interest, social identification with reference groups or reference individuals, and values. Attaching personal importance to an attitude causes crystallizing of attitudes (via enhanced resistance to change), effortful gathering and processing of relevant information, accumulation of a large store of well-organized relevant information in long-term memory, enhanced attitude extremity and accessibility, enhanced attitude impact on the regulation of interpersonal attraction, energizing of emotional reactions, and enhanced impact of attitudes on behavioral intentions and action. Thus, important attitudes are real and consequential psychological forces, and their study offers opportunities for addressing behavioral change.

Improving ability measurement in surveys by following the principles of IRT: The Wordsum vocabulary test in the General Social Survey.

Survey researchers often administer batteries of questions to measure respondents' abilities, but these batteries are not always designed in keeping with the principles of optimal test construction. This paper illustrates one instance in which following these principles can improve a measurement tool used widely in the social and behavioral sciences: the GSS's vocabulary test called "Wordsum". This ten-item test is composed of very difficult items and very easy items, and item response theory (IRT) suggests that the omission of moderately difficult items is likely to have handicapped Wordsum's effectiveness. Analyses of data from national samples of thousands of American adults show that after adding four moderately difficult items to create a 14-item battery, "Wordsumplus" (1) outperformed the original battery in terms of quality indicators suggested by classical test theory; (2) reduced the standard error of IRT ability estimates in the middle of the latent ability dimension; and (3) exhibited higher concurrent validity. These findings show how to improve Wordsum and suggest that analysts should use a score based on all 14 items instead of using the summary score provided by the GSS, which is based on only the original 10 items. These results also show more generally how surveys measuring abilities (and other constructs) can benefit from careful application of insights from the contemporary educational testing literature.

Does mentioning "some people" and "other people" in a survey question increase the accuracy of adolescents' self-reports?

A great deal of developmental research has relied on self-reports solicited using the "some/other" question format ("Some students think that… but other students think that…"). This article reports tests of the assumptions underlying its use: that it conveys to adolescents that socially undesirable attitudes, beliefs, or behaviors are not uncommon and legitimizes reporting them, yielding more valid self-reports than would be obtained by "direct" questions, which do not mention what other people think or do. A meta-analysis of 11 experiments embedded in four surveys of diverse samples of adolescents did not support the assumption that the some/other form increases validity. Although the some/other form led adolescents to think that undesirable attitudes, beliefs, or behaviors were more common and resulted in more reports of those attitudes and behaviors, answers to some/other questions were lower in criterion validity than were answers to direct questions. Because some/other questions take longer to ask and answer and require greater cognitive effort from participants (because they involve more words), and because they decrease measurement accuracy, the some/other question format seems best avoided.

The validity of self-reported nicotine product use in the 2001-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

BACKGROUND: Many researchers rely on high-quality face-to-face national surveys conducted by the federal government to estimate the prevalence of nicotine product use, but some scholars have suggested that adults' self-reports in such surveys are intentionally distorted by social desirability response bias, thus raising questions about the validity of those data. OBJECTIVES: To assess the validity of face-to-face survey self-reports by comparing them with physiological tests. RESEARCH DESIGN: Respondents in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey provided self-reports of nicotine product use and gave blood samples that were analyzed for levels of serum cotinine, an indicator of nicotine exposure. SUBJECTS: Nationally representative samples of thousands of American adults in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey surveys conducted in 2001-2002, 2003-2004, 2005-2006, and 2007-2008. MEASURES: Serum cotinine levels and self-reports of nicotine product use. RESULTS: On average, only 1.17% to 1.25% of adult respondents said that they did not use a product containing nicotine, but had elevated cotinine levels. After eliminating the potential influence of passive smoking, these figures dropped to 0.89% to 0.94%. This small discrepancy between the 2 assessments could be due to measurement error in the cotinine test results or to recent use of cotinine-elevating medication. CONCLUSIONS: These data do not support the claim that a substantial number of adult respondents intentionally under-report nicotine consumption in face-to-face interviews. The remarkable accuracy of self-reports of nicotine consumption seen here justifies confidence in self-reports of this behavior in such surveys.

Social power and attitude strength over the life course.

Past findings indicate that middle-aged adults in the United States tend to be more resistant to attitude change than younger and older adults, but little is known about why this is so. The authors propose that midlife adults' disproportionate occupation of high-power social roles (which call for resoluteness) may partly explain their heightened resistance to persuasion. Using nationally representative data sets, the article first documents that in various domains the possession of social power peaks in midlife. It next documents that middle-aged adults place a high value on resoluteness, which suggests that they have internalized powerful role norms. Next, it shows that directly activating the concept of social power increases the perceived value of resoluteness. Finally, it demonstrates that the possession of powerful social roles partially mediates the relationship between age and resistance to persuasion. This work is the first to uncover a mechanism responsible for changes in attitude strength over the adult life course.

The association of knowledge with concern about global warming: trusted information sources shape public thinking.

During the last decade, a great deal of news media attention has focused on informing the American public about scientific findings on global warming (GW). Has learning this sort of information led the American public to become more concerned about GW? Using data from two surveys of nationally representative samples of American adults, this article shows that the relation between self-reported knowledge and concern about GW is more complex than what previous research has suggested. Among people who trust scientists to provide reliable information about the environment and among Democrats and Independents, increased knowledge has been associated with increased concern. But among people who are skeptical about scientists and among Republicans more knowledge was generally not associated with greater concern. The association of knowledge with concern among Democrats and Independents who trust scientists was mediated by perceptions of consensus among scientists about GW's existence and by perceptions that humans are a principal cause of GW. Moreover, additional analyses of panel survey data produced findings consistent with the notion that more knowledge yields more concern among Democrats and Independents, but not among Republicans. Thus, when studying the relation of knowledge and concern, it is important to take into account the content of the information that different types of people acquire and choose to rely upon.

Why Do White Americans Oppose Race-Targeted Policies? Clarifying the Impact of Symbolic Racism.

Measures of symbolic racism (SR) have often been used to tap racial prejudice toward Blacks. However, given the wording of questions used for this purpose, some of the apparent effects on attitudes toward policies to help Blacks may instead be due to political conservatism, attitudes toward government, and/or attitudes toward redistributive government policies in general. Using data from national probability sample surveys and an experiment, we explored whether SR has effects even when controlling for these potential confounds and whether its effects are specific to policies involving Blacks. Holding constant conservatism and attitudes toward limited government, SR predicted Whites' opposition to policies designed to help Blacks and more weakly predicted attitudes toward social programs whose beneficiaries were racially ambiguous. An experimental manipulation of policy beneficiaries revealed that SR predicted policy attitudes when Blacks were the beneficiary but not when women were. These findings are consistent with the claim that SR's association with racial policy preferences is not due to these confounds.

Attitude importance and the accumulation of attitude-relevant knowledge in memory.

People who attach personal importance to an attitude are especially knowledgeable about the attitude object. This article tests an explanation for this relation: that importance causes the accumulation of knowledge by inspiring selective exposure to and selective elaboration of relevant information. Nine studies showed that (a) after watching televised debates between presidential candidates, viewers were better able to remember the statements made on policy issues on which they had more personally important attitudes; (b) importance motivated selective exposure and selective elaboration: Greater personal importance was associated with better memory for relevant information encountered under controlled laboratory conditions, and manipulations eliminating opportunities for selective exposure and selective elaboration eliminated the importance-memory accuracy relation; and (c) people do not use perceptions of their knowledge volume to infer how important an attitude is to them, but importance does cause knowledge accumulation.

The impact of personality on cognitive, behavioral, and affective political processes: the effects of need to evaluate.

Need to evaluate (NE) is a personality trait that reflects a person's proclivity to create and hold attitudes; people high in NE are especially likely to form attitudes toward all sorts of objects. Using data from the 1998 National Election Survey Pilot and the 2000 National Election Survey, NE was shown to predict a variety of important attitude-relevant cognitive, behavioral, and affective political processes beyond simply holding attitudes: NE predicted how many evaluative beliefs about candidates a person held, the likelihood that a person would use party identification and issue stances to determine candidate preferences, the extent to which a person engaged in political activism, the likelihood that a person voted or intended to vote, the extent to which a person used the news media for gathering information, and the intensity of emotional reactions a person felt toward political candidates. Thus, NE appears to play a powerful role in shaping important political behavior, emotion, and cognition.