Modeling Paratuberculosis Transmission in a Small Dairy Herd Typical of Slovenia Suggests That Different Models Should Be Used to Study Disease Spread in Herds of Different Sizes.

This study aimed to investigate the possible dynamics of paratuberculosis or Johne's disease in a typical Slovenian dairy herd of about 17 cows. Paratuberculosis is a worldwide endemic disease of cattle caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) and is associated with significant economic losses. We developed a stochastic compartmental model with two pathways of disease progression, infections of adult cows and infections of young animals through horizontal and vertical transmission, and transmission through animal movements. The average proportions of subclinically and clinically infected cows were 4% and 0.47%, respectively. The prevalence within the herd, which included latently infected animals, averaged 7.13% and ranged from 0% to 70.59%. Under the given circumstances, the results showed a relatively high rate of spontaneous elimination (0.22 per herd per year) of the disease and a high rate of reinfection (0.18 per herd per year) facilitated by active animal trade. To our knowledge, this stochastic compartmental model is the first to be developed specifically to represent a small dairy herd and could apply to other countries with a similar structure of dairy farms. The results suggest that different models should be used to study MAP spread in herds of various sizes.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) via Different Types of Milk for the Slovenian Consumer.

This study aimed to assess the risk of exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) via milk for the Slovenian consumer. MAP is suspected to be associated with several diseases in humans, therefore the risk of exposure should be better understood. The primary source of MAP for humans is thought to be cattle, in which MAP causes paratuberculosis or Johne's disease. We developed a stochastic quantitative risk assessment model using Monte Carlo simulations. Considering the assumptions and uncertainties, we estimated the overall risk of exposure to MAP via milk to be low. For people consuming raw milk from MAP positive farms, the risk was high. On-farm pasteurisation reduced the risk considerably, but not completely. The risk of exposure via pasteurised retail milk was most likely insignificant. However, with a higher paratuberculosis prevalence the risk would also increase. Given the popularity of raw milk vending machines and homemade dairy products, this risk should not be ignored. To reduce the risk, consumers should heat raw milk before consumption. To prevent a potential public health scare and safeguard farmers' livelihoods, a reduction in paratuberculosis prevalence should be sought. Our results show that culling clinically infected cows was insufficient to reduce milk contamination with MAP.

High Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in Slovenian Wild Boars (Sus scrofa).

Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic parasite of great public health concern. Wild boars could be considered an emerging source of toxoplasmosis in humans due to the popularity of venison and their increasing population. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii in the Slovenian wild boar population and evaluate risk factors for human infection. Of 353 samples, 62% were positive for T. gondii using ELISA tests. This is the highest T. gondii seroprevalence reported to date in wild boar worldwide. The increase in prevalence with increasing age (p = 0.003) and weight (p = 0.002) were statistically significant, whereas gender was not (p = 0.781). Odds for being T. gondii-positive increased with age with the largest difference being between 2-3-year-old and 1-2-year-old animals (OR = 2.66, 95%CI: 1.03-6.85). Animals weighing 20-40 kg had a higher risk than animals weighing 0-20 kg (OR = 2.74, 95%CI: 1.21-6.20), whereas a further increase in the weight was not associated with increasing the odds. Due to the high Toxoplasma prevalence, the study concluded that the risk of exposure to T. gondii from handling raw or undercooked wild boar meat is high. Surveillance protocols should be established at the national level together with increased awareness within the hunting community.