A comparison of two frameworks for multi-state modelling, applied to outcomes after hospital admissions with COVID-19.

We compare two multi-state modelling frameworks that can be used to represent dates of events following hospital admission for people infected during an epidemic. The methods are applied to data from people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, to estimate the probability of admission to intensive care unit, the probability of death in hospital for patients before and after intensive care unit admission, the lengths of stay in hospital, and how all these vary with age and gender. One modelling framework is based on defining transition-specific hazard functions for competing risks. A less commonly used framework defines partially-latent subpopulations who will experience each subsequent event, and uses a mixture model to estimate the probability that an individual will experience each event, and the distribution of the time to the event given that it occurs. We compare the advantages and disadvantages of these two frameworks, in the context of the COVID-19 example. The issues include the interpretation of the model parameters, the computational efficiency of estimating the quantities of interest, implementation in software and assessing goodness of fit. In the example, we find that some groups appear to be at very low risk of some events, in particular intensive care unit admission, and these are best represented by using 'cure-rate' models to define transition-specific hazards. We provide general-purpose software to implement all the models we describe in the flexsurv R package, which allows arbitrarily flexible distributions to be used to represent the cause-specific hazards or times to events.

Trends in outcomes following COVID-19 symptom onset in Milan: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: For people with symptomatic COVID-19, the relative risks of hospital admission, death without hospital admission and recovery without admission, and the times to those events, are not well understood. We describe how these quantities varied with individual characteristics, and through the first wave of the pandemic, in Milan, Italy. METHODS: A cohort study of 27 598 people with known COVID-19 symptom onset date in Milan, Italy, testing positive between February and June 2020 and followed up until 17 July 2020. The probabilities of different events, and the times to events, were estimated using a mixture multistate model. RESULTS: The risk of death without hospital admission was higher in March and April (for non-care home residents, 6%-8% compared with 2%-3% in other months) and substantially higher for care home residents (22%-29% in March). For all groups, the probabilities of hospitalisation decreased from February to June. The probabilities of hospitalisation also increased with age, and were higher for men, substantially lower for healthcare workers and care home residents, and higher for people with comorbidities. Times to hospitalisation and confirmed recovery also decreased throughout the first wave. Combining these results with our previously developed model for events following hospitalisation, the overall symptomatic case fatality risk was 15.8% (15.4%-16.2%). CONCLUSIONS: The highest risks of death before hospital admission coincided with periods of severe burden on the healthcare system in Lombardy. Outcomes for care home residents were particularly poor. Outcomes improved as the first wave waned, community healthcare resources were reinforced and testing became more widely available.

A genome-wide association study of outcome from traumatic brain injury.

BACKGROUND: Factors such as age, pre-injury health, and injury severity, account for less than 35% of outcome variability in traumatic brain injury (TBI). While some residual outcome variability may be attributable to genetic factors, published candidate gene association studies have often been underpowered and subject to publication bias. METHODS: We performed the first genome- and transcriptome-wide association studies (GWAS, TWAS) of genetic effects on outcome in TBI. The study population consisted of 5268 patients from prospective European and US studies, who attended hospital within 24 h of TBI, and satisfied local protocols for computed tomography. FINDINGS: The estimated heritability of TBI outcome was 0·26. GWAS revealed no genetic variants with genome-wide significance (p < 5 × 10-8), but identified 83 variants in 13 independent loci which met a lower pre-specified sub-genomic statistical threshold (p < 10-5). Similarly, none of the genes tested in TWAS met tissue-wide significance. An exploratory analysis of 75 published candidate variants associated with 28 genes revealed one replicable variant (rs1800450 in the MBL2 gene) which retained significance after correction for multiple comparison (p = 5·24 × 10-4). INTERPRETATION: While multiple novel loci reached less stringent thresholds, none achieved genome-wide significance. The overall heritability estimate, however, is consistent with the hypothesis that common genetic variation substantially contributes to inter-individual variability in TBI outcome. The meta-analytic approach to the GWAS and the availability of summary data allows for a continuous extension with additional cohorts as data becomes available. FUNDING: A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in the Acknowledgements section.

Conditional power and friends: The why and how of (un)planned, unblinded sample size recalculations in confirmatory trials.

Adapting the final sample size of a trial to the evidence accruing during the trial is a natural way to address planning uncertainty. Since the sample size is usually determined by an argument based on the power of the trial, an interim analysis raises the question of how the final sample size should be determined conditional on the accrued information. To this end, we first review and compare common approaches to estimating conditional power, which is often used in heuristic sample size recalculation rules. We then discuss the connection of heuristic sample size recalculation and optimal two-stage designs, demonstrating that the latter is the superior approach in a fully preplanned setting. Hence, unplanned design adaptations should only be conducted as reaction to trial-external new evidence, operational needs to violate the originally chosen design, or post hoc changes in the optimality criterion but not as a reaction to trial-internal data. We are able to show that commonly discussed sample size recalculation rules lead to paradoxical adaptations where an initially planned optimal design is not invariant under the adaptation rule even if the planning assumptions do not change. Finally, we propose two alternative ways of reacting to newly emerging trial-external evidence in ways that are consistent with the originally planned design to avoid such inconsistencies.

Risk factors associated with severe hospital burden of COVID-19 disease in Regione Lombardia: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the risk factors associated with hospital burden of COVID-19 is crucial for healthcare planning for any future waves of infection. METHODS: An observational cohort study is performed, using data on all PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Regione Lombardia, Italy, during the first wave of infection from February-June 2020. A multi-state modelling approach is used to simultaneously estimate risks of progression through hospital to final outcomes of either death or discharge, by pathway (via critical care or not) and the times to final events (lengths of stay). Logistic and time-to-event regressions are used to quantify the association of patient and population characteristics with the risks of hospital outcomes and lengths of stay respectively. RESULTS: Risks of severe outcomes such as ICU admission and mortality have decreased with month of admission (for example, the odds ratio of ICU admission in June vs March is 0.247 [0.120-0.508]) and increased with age (odds ratio of ICU admission in 45-65 vs 65 + age group is 0.286 [0.201-0.406]). Care home residents aged 65 + are associated with increased risk of hospital mortality and decreased risk of ICU admission. Being a healthcare worker appears to have a protective association with mortality risk (odds ratio of ICU mortality is 0.254 [0.143-0.453] relative to non-healthcare workers) and length of stay. Lengths of stay decrease with month of admission for survivors, but do not appear to vary with month for non-survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in clinical knowledge, treatment, patient and hospital management and public health surveillance, together with the waning of the first wave after the first lockdown, are hypothesised to have contributed to the reduced risks and lengths of stay over time.

Decreasing hospital burden of COVID-19 during the first wave in Regione Lombardia: an emergency measures context.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to quantify the hospital burden of COVID-19 during the first wave and how it changed over calendar time; to interpret the results in light of the emergency measures introduced to manage the strain on secondary healthcare. METHODS: This is a cohort study of hospitalised confirmed cases of COVID-19 admitted from February-June 2020 and followed up till 17th July 2020, analysed using a mixture multi-state model. All hospital patients with confirmed COVID-19 disease in Regione Lombardia were involved, admitted from February-June 2020, with non-missing hospital of admission and non-missing admission date. RESULTS: The cohort consists of 40,550 patients hospitalised during the first wave. These patients had a median age of 69 (interquartile range 56-80) and were more likely to be men (60%) than women (40%). The hospital-fatality risk, averaged over all pathways through hospital, was 27.5% (95% CI 27.1-28.0%); and steadily decreased from 34.6% (32.5-36.6%) in February to 7.6% (6.3-10.6%) in June. Among surviving patients, median length of stay in hospital was 11.8 (11.6-12.3) days, compared to 8.1 (7.8-8.5) days in non-survivors. Averaged over final outcomes, median length of stay in hospital decreased from 21.4 (20.5-22.8) days in February to 5.2 (4.7-5.8) days in June. CONCLUSIONS: The hospital burden, in terms of both risks of poor outcomes and lengths of stay in hospital, has been demonstrated to have decreased over the months of the first wave, perhaps reflecting improved treatment and management of COVID-19 cases, as well as reduced burden as the first wave waned. The quantified burden allows for planning of hospital beds needed for current and future waves of SARS-CoV-2 i.

Optimal planning of adaptive two-stage designs.

Adaptive designs are playing an increasingly important role in the planning of clinical trials. While there exists various research on the optimal determination of a two-stage design, non-optimal versions still are frequently applied in clinical research. In this article, we strive to motivate the application of optimal adaptive designs and give guidance on how to determine them. It is demonstrated that optimizing a trial design with respect to particular objective criteria can have a substantial benefit over the application of conventional adaptive sample size recalculation rules. Furthermore, we show that in many practical situations, optimal group-sequential designs show an almost negligible performance loss compared to optimal adaptive designs. Finally, we illustrate how optimal designs can be tailored to specific operational requirements by customizing the underlying optimization problem.

Physostigmine for prevention of postoperative delirium and long-term cognitive dysfunction in liver surgery: A double-blinded randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Anecdotally, cholinergic stimulation has been used to treat delirium and reduce cognitive dysfunction. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this investigation was to evaluate whether physostigmine reduced the incidence of postoperative delirium (POD) and postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) in patients undergoing liver resection. DESIGN: This was a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial. Between 11 August 2009 and 3 March 2016, patients were recruited at the Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin in Germany. Follow-ups took place at 1 week (T1), 90 days (T2) and 365 days (T3) after surgery. SETTING: This single-centre study was conducted at an academic medical centre. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 261 participants aged at least 18 years scheduled for elective liver surgery were randomised. The protocol also included 45 non-surgical matched controls to provide normative data for POCD and neurocognitive deficit (NCD). INTERVENTION: Participants were allocated to receive either intravenous physostigmine, as a bolus of 0.02 mg kg-1 body weight followed by 0.01 mg kg-1 body weight per hour (n = 130), or placebo (n = 131), for 24 h after induction of anaesthesia. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes were POD, assessed using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-4-TR) twice daily up to day 7 after surgery, and POCD assessed via the CANTAB neuropsychological test battery, and two paper pencil tests on the day before surgery, and on postoperative days 7, 90 and 365. RESULTS: In total, 261 patients were randomised, 130 to the physostigmine and 131 to the placebo group. The incidence of POD did not differ significantly between the physostigmine and placebo groups (20 versus 15%; P = 0.334). Preoperative cognitive impairment and POCD frequencies did not differ significantly between the physostigmine and placebo groups at any time. Lower mortality rates were found in the physostigmine group compared with placebo at 3 months [2% (95% confidence interval (CI), 0 to 4) versus 11% (95% CI, 6 to 16), P = 0.002], and 6 months [7% (95% CI, 3 to 12) versus 16% (95% CI, 10 to 23), P = 0.012] after surgery. CONCLUSION: Physostigmine had no effect on POD and POCD when applied after induction of anaesthesia up to 24 h. TRIAL REGISTRATION: DOI 10.1186/ISRCTN18978802, EudraCT 2008-007237-47, Ethics approval ZS EK 11 618/08 (15 January 2009).

A Review of Bayesian Perspectives on Sample Size Derivation for Confirmatory Trials.

Sample size derivation is a crucial element of planning any confirmatory trial. The required sample size is typically derived based on constraints on the maximal acceptable Type I error rate and minimal desired power. Power depends on the unknown true effect and tends to be calculated either for the smallest relevant effect or a likely point alternative. The former might be problematic if the minimal relevant effect is close to the null, thus requiring an excessively large sample size, while the latter is dubious since it does not account for the a priori uncertainty about the likely alternative effect. A Bayesian perspective on sample size derivation for a frequentist trial can reconcile arguments about the relative a priori plausibility of alternative effects with ideas based on the relevance of effect sizes. Many suggestions as to how such "hybrid" approaches could be implemented in practice have been put forward. However, key quantities are often defined in subtly different ways in the literature. Starting from the traditional entirely frequentist approach to sample size derivation, we derive consistent definitions for the most commonly used hybrid quantities and highlight connections, before discussing and demonstrating their use in sample size derivation for clinical trials.

Imputation of Ordinal Outcomes: A Comparison of Approaches in Traumatic Brain Injury.

Loss to follow-up and missing outcomes data are important issues for longitudinal observational studies and clinical trials in traumatic brain injury. One popular solution to missing 6-month outcomes has been to use the last observation carried forward (LOCF). The purpose of the current study was to compare the performance of model-based single-imputation methods with that of the LOCF approach. We hypothesized that model-based methods would perform better as they potentially make better use of available outcome data. The Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study (n = 4509) included longitudinal outcome collection at 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months post-injury; a total of 8185 Glasgow Outcome Scale extended (GOSe) observations were included in the database. We compared single imputation of 6-month outcomes using LOCF, a multiple imputation (MI) panel imputation, a mixed-effect model, a Gaussian process regression, and a multi-state model. Model performance was assessed via cross-validation on the subset of individuals with a valid GOSe value within 180 ± 14 days post-injury (n = 1083). All models were fit on the entire available data after removing the 180 ± 14 days post-injury observations from the respective test fold. The LOCF method showed lower accuracy (i.e., poorer agreement between imputed and observed values) than model-based methods of imputation, and showed a strong negative bias (i.e., it imputed lower than observed outcomes). Accuracy and bias for the model-based approaches were similar to one another, with the multi-state model having the best overall performance. All methods of imputation showed variation across different outcome categories, with better performance for more frequent outcomes. We conclude that model-based methods of single imputation have substantial performance advantages over LOCF, in addition to providing more complete outcome data.

Understanding the relationship between cognitive performance and function in daily life after traumatic brain injury.

OBJECTIVE: Cognitive impairment is a key cause of disability after traumatic brain injury (TBI) but relationships with overall functioning in daily life are often modest. The aim is to examine cognition at different levels of function and identify domains associated with disability. METHODS: 1554 patients with mild-to-severe TBI were assessed at 6 months post injury on the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE), the Short Form-12v2 and a battery of cognitive tests. Outcomes across GOSE categories were compared using analysis of covariance adjusting for age, sex and education. RESULTS: Overall effect sizes were small to medium, and greatest for tests involving processing speed (ηp 2 0.057-0.067) and learning and memory (ηp 2 0.048-0.052). Deficits in cognitive performance were particularly evident in patients who were dependent (GOSE 3 or 4) or who were unable to participate in one or more major life activities (GOSE 5). At higher levels of function (GOSE 6-8), cognitive performance was surprisingly similar across categories. There were decreases in performance even in patients reporting complete recovery without significant symptoms. Medium to large effect sizes were present for summary measures of cognition (ηp 2 0.111), mental health (ηp 2 0.131) and physical health (ηp 2 0.252). CONCLUSIONS: This large-scale study provides novel insights into cognitive performance at different levels of disability and highlights the importance of processing speed in function in daily life. At upper levels of outcome, any influence of cognition on overall function is markedly attenuated and differences in mental health are salient.

Challenging behavior in mucopolysaccharidoses types I-III and day-to-day coping strategies: a cross sectional explorative study.

BACKGROUND: Challenging behavior represents a core symptom in neuropathological mucopolysaccharidoses (MPS) and puts major strain on affected families. Although multimodal approaches including behavioral strategies to treatment could be valuable, there is lack of research to the effectiveness of specific measures. This explorative, cross-sectional study is aimed at the collection of parental experiences regarding effective day-to-day measures against challenging behavior in MPS and focuses on 4 major research questions: First: What is challenging behavior in MPS? Second: Which strategies are helpful in the day-to-day coping with challenging behavior? Third: How strong is parental acceptance of illness and the disorder's impact on family relationships? Fourth: What are beneficial personal and interfamilial strategies for generally coping with the disorder? METHODS: A semi structured questionnaire was designed de novo in cooperation with affected families. 37/268 questionnaires were returned (rate: 13.8%), of which 34 (MPS I: n = 8, MPS II: n = 8; MPS III: n = 18) could be included in data analysis in accordance with inclusion criteria. Assessment of challenging symptoms was based on perceived frequency, parent- and child stress. Exploration of possible coping strategies for challenging behavior and general illness-related strain included the evaluation of perceived effectiveness. Questionnaires were completed by patient's relatives and analyzed for strategies to cope with challenging behavior and the disorder's impact. STROBE criteria were respected. RESULTS: MPS I was reported to show lower frequency and better perceived manageability of challenging behavior than MPS II and -III. Sleep disturbance, hyperactivity, agitation, aggression and orality seemed relevant symptoms regarding frequency and/or parent stress. Reported measures were manifold, worthwhile approaches against challenging behavior appeared to be aiming at distraction, relief and environmental changes. Medication and non-medication approaches were rated similarly effective. Social exchange, private space and networking with other affected families seemed highly important for personal and interfamilial well-being. CONCLUSIONS: Multimodal mentoring for affected families could be based on the following equivalent pillars: (1) Medication therapy for challenging behavior including evaluation of cost and benefit (2) Guided implementation and re-evaluation of specific behavioral measures against challenging behavior. (3) Psychosocial support of MPS-families, including options for strengthening parental well-being and family functioning. Trial registration This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov prior to study start (NCT-Number: NCT03161171, Date: 2017/05/19).

Optimal adaptive single-arm phase II trials under quantified uncertainty.

Single-arm trials with binary endpoint are firmly established in e.g., early clinical oncology. Here, two-stage designs are often employed to allow early termination of the trial in the case of an unexpectedly large or small response rate to the new treatment. Various designs have been proposed over the last few years which usually require strong assumptions about the true response rate during planning. Often, these designs are not robust to deviations from the planning assumptions. In this paper, we define a Bayesian framework for scoring two-stage designs under uncertainty and investigate the characteristics of designs optimizing a commonly employed performance score of Liu et al. The resulting optimal designs are compared with an alternative, utility-based approach incorporating expected power and sample size. We provide insights in the underlying implicit assumptions of using expected power for scoring adaptive designs and relate the global score function to the practice of sample size recalculation based on conditional power. An in-depth comparison of the features of the different performance scores and their respective optimizing designs provides the guidance for practitioners who face the problem of choosing between the various options. A software implementation of the proposed methods is publicly available online.

Case-mix, care pathways, and outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury in CENTER-TBI: a European prospective, multicentre, longitudinal, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of traumatic brain injury (TBI) poses a large public health and societal problem, but the characteristics of patients and their care pathways in Europe are poorly understood. We aimed to characterise patient case-mix, care pathways, and outcomes of TBI. METHODS: CENTER-TBI is a Europe-based, observational cohort study, consisting of a core study and a registry. Inclusion criteria for the core study were a clinical diagnosis of TBI, presentation fewer than 24 h after injury, and an indication for CT. Patients were differentiated by care pathway and assigned to the emergency room (ER) stratum (patients who were discharged from an emergency room), admission stratum (patients who were admitted to a hospital ward), or intensive care unit (ICU) stratum (patients who were admitted to the ICU). Neuroimages and biospecimens were stored in repositories and outcome was assessed at 6 months after injury. We used the IMPACT core model for estimating the expected mortality and proportion with unfavourable Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) outcomes in patients with moderate or severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score ≤12). The core study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02210221, and with Resource Identification Portal (RRID: SCR_015582). FINDINGS: Data from 4509 patients from 18 countries, collected between Dec 9, 2014, and Dec 17, 2017, were analysed in the core study and from 22 782 patients in the registry. In the core study, 848 (19%) patients were in the ER stratum, 1523 (34%) in the admission stratum, and 2138 (47%) in the ICU stratum. In the ICU stratum, 720 (36%) patients had mild TBI (GCS score 13-15). Compared with the core cohort, the registry had a higher proportion of patients in the ER (9839 [43%]) and admission (8571 [38%]) strata, with more than 95% of patients classified as having mild TBI. Patients in the core study were older than those in previous studies (median age 50 years [IQR 30-66], 1254 [28%] aged >65 years), 462 (11%) had serious comorbidities, 772 (18%) were taking anticoagulant or antiplatelet medication, and alcohol was contributory in 1054 (25%) TBIs. MRI and blood biomarker measurement enhanced characterisation of injury severity and type. Substantial inter-country differences existed in care pathways and practice. Incomplete recovery at 6 months (GOSE <8) was found in 207 (30%) patients in the ER stratum, 665 (53%) in the admission stratum, and 1547 (84%) in the ICU stratum. Among patients with moderate-to-severe TBI in the ICU stratum, 623 (55%) patients had unfavourable outcome at 6 months (GOSE <5), similar to the proportion predicted by the IMPACT prognostic model (observed to expected ratio 1·06 [95% CI 0·97-1·14]), but mortality was lower than expected (0·70 [0·62-0·76]). INTERPRETATION: Patients with TBI who presented to European centres in the core study were older than were those in previous observational studies and often had comorbidities. Overall, most patients presented with mild TBI. The incomplete recovery of many patients should motivate precision medicine research and the identification of best practices to improve these outcomes. FUNDING: European Union 7th Framework Programme, the Hannelore Kohl Stiftung, OneMind, and Integra LifeSciences Corporation.

A variational approach to optimal two-stage designs.

Recalculating the sample size in adaptive two-stage designs is a well-established method to gain flexibility in a clinical trial. Jennison and Turnbull (2015) proposed an "optimal" adaptive two-stage design based on the inverse normal combination test, which minimizes a mixed criterion of expected sample size under the alternative and conditional power. We demonstrate that the use of a combination test is not necessary to control the type one error rate and use variational techniques to develop a general adaptive design that is globally optimal under predefined optimality criteria. This approach yields to more efficient designs and furthermore allows to investigate the efficiency of the inverse normal method and the relation between local (interim-based) recalculation rules and global (unconditional) optimality of adaptive two-stage designs.

Lasting s-ketamine block of spreading depolarizations in subarachnoid hemorrhage: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Spreading depolarizations (SD) are characterized by breakdown of transmembrane ion gradients and excitotoxicity. Experimentally, N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) antagonists block a majority of SDs. In many hospitals, the NMDAR antagonist s-ketamine and the GABAA agonist midazolam represent the current second-line combination treatment to sedate patients with devastating cerebral injuries. A pressing clinical question is whether this option should become first-line in sedation-requiring individuals in whom SDs are detected, yet the s-ketamine dose necessary to adequately inhibit SDs is unknown. Moreover, use-dependent tolerance could be a problem for SD inhibition in the clinic. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 66 patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) from a prospectively collected database. Thirty-three of 66 patients received s-ketamine during electrocorticographic neuromonitoring of SDs in neurointensive care. The decision to give s-ketamine was dependent on the need for stronger sedation, so it was expected that patients receiving s-ketamine would have a worse clinical outcome. RESULTS: S-ketamine application started 4.2 ± 3.5 days after aSAH. The mean dose was 2.8 ± 1.4 mg/kg body weight (BW)/h and thus higher than the dose recommended for sedation. First, patients were divided according to whether they received s-ketamine at any time or not. No significant difference in SD counts was found between groups (negative binomial model using the SD count per patient as outcome variable, p = 0.288). This most likely resulted from the fact that 368 SDs had already occurred in the s-ketamine group before s-ketamine was given. However, in patients receiving s-ketamine, we found a significant decrease in SD incidence when s-ketamine was started (Poisson model with a random intercept for patient, coefficient - 1.83 (95% confidence intervals - 2.17; - 1.50), p < 0.001; logistic regression model, odds ratio (OR) 0.13 (0.08; 0.19), p < 0.001). Thereafter, data was further divided into low-dose (0.1-2.0 mg/kg BW/h) and high-dose (2.1-7.0 mg/kg/h) segments. High-dose s-ketamine resulted in further significant decrease in SD incidence (Poisson model, - 1.10 (- 1.71; - 0.49), p < 0.001; logistic regression model, OR 0.33 (0.17; 0.63), p < 0.001). There was little evidence of SD tolerance to long-term s-ketamine sedation through 5 days. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide a foundation for a multicenter, neuromonitoring-guided, proof-of-concept trial of ketamine and midazolam as a first-line sedative regime.

Risk Factors for Early Dialysis Dependency in Autosomal Recessive Polycystic Kidney Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To identify prenatal, perinatal, and postnatal risk factors for dialysis within the first year of life in children with autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease (ARPKD) as a basis for parental counseling after prenatal and perinatal diagnosis. STUDY DESIGN: A dataset comprising 385 patients from the ARegPKD international registry study was analyzed for potential risk markers for dialysis during the first year of life. RESULTS: Thirty-six out of 385 children (9.4%) commenced dialysis in the first year of life. According to multivariable Cox regression analysis, the presence of oligohydramnios or anhydramnios, prenatal kidney enlargement, a low Apgar score, and the need for postnatal breathing support were independently associated with an increased hazard ratio for requiring dialysis within the first year of life. The increased risk associated with Apgar score and perinatal assisted breathing was time-dependent and vanished after 5 and 8 months of life, respectively. The predicted probabilities for early dialysis varied from 1.5% (95% CI, 0.5%-4.1%) for patients with ARPKD with no prenatal sonographic abnormalities to 32.3% (95% CI, 22.2%-44.5%) in cases of documented oligohydramnios or anhydramnios, renal cysts, and enlarged kidneys. CONCLUSIONS: This study, which identified risk factors associated with onset of dialysis in ARPKD in the first year of life, may be helpful in prenatal parental counseling in cases of suspected ARPKD.

Assessing abrasion of orthodontic surface sealants using a modified ophthalmic optical coherence tomography device.

OBJECTIVE: Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a clinical standard in ophthalmology. Currently, its application in dentistry is gaining increasing interest. In this study, we tested the possibility to use a modified commercially available spectral domain OCT (SD-OCT) to assess the layer thickness of orthodontic surface sealants. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Reference samples of surface sealants for calibration and repeatability testing were measured using a micrometer screw. SD-OCT measurements were compared with micro-CT and light microscopic analyses. After validating the calibration of the SD-OCT, surface sealant layer thickness after aging (thermo cycling) and simulation of professional tooth cleaning (PTC) was assessed using the SD-OCT on 45 extracted teeth assigned to three test groups (n = 15 each): Light Bond™ Sealant, Pro Seal®, and Opal® Seal. RESULTS: SD-OCT showed excellent repeatability and accuracy for measurements of surface sealant layer thickness. Compared with micro-CT, SD-OCT showed better accordance with the reference measurements. The analysis of surface sealants after thermo cycling and PTC revealed poor resistance of Light Bond after only aging and demonstrated substantial wear of all sealants after aging and PTC. CONCLUSION: Imaging using commercially available ophthalmic SD-OCT might represent a suitable non-invasive methodology for longitudinal assessments of surface sealant layer thickness in vitro and in vivo. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: SD-OCT might be a suitable non-invasive method for longitudinal assessments of surface sealant durability in clinical trials.