California's COVID-19 Vaccine Equity Policy: Cases, Hospitalizations, And Deaths Averted In Affected Communities.

In March 2021, California implemented a vaccine equity policy that prioritized COVID-19 vaccine allocation to communities identified as least advantaged by an area-based socioeconomic measure, the Healthy Places Index. We conducted quasi-experimental and counterfactual analyses to estimate the effect of this policy on COVID-19 vaccination, case, hospitalization, and death rates. Among prioritized communities, vaccination rates increased 28.4 percent after policy implementation. Furthermore, an estimated 160,892 COVID-19 cases, 10,248 hospitalizations, and 679 deaths in the least-advantaged communities were averted by the policy. Despite these improvements, the share of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in prioritized communities remained elevated. These estimates were robust in sensitivity analyses that tested exchangeability between prioritized communities and those not prioritized by the policy; model specifications; and potential temporal confounders, including prior infections. Correcting for disparities by strategically allocating limited resources to the least-advantaged or most-affected communities can reduce the impacts of COVID-19 and other diseases but might not eliminate health disparities.

Indirect vaccine effectiveness in an outbreak of Alpha B.1.1.7 variant in a California state Prison, May 2021.

Incarcerated populations experienced high rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and death during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. To evaluate vaccine effectiveness in the carceral context, we investigated the first outbreak of COVID-19 in a California state prison following widespread rollout of vaccines to residents in early 2021. We identified a cohort of 733 state prison residents presumed to be exposed between May 14 and June 22, 2021. 46.9 % (n = 344) were vaccinated, primarily with two doses of mRNA-1273 (n = 332, 93.6 %). In total, 92 PCR-positive cases were identified, of which 14 (14.5 %) occurred among mRNA-1273 vaccinated residents. No cases required hospitalization. All nine isolates collected belonged to the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to estimate vaccine effectiveness for at least one dose of any vaccine at the start of the outbreak. Vaccine effectiveness was 86 % (95 % CI: 75 %-97 %) against PCR-confirmed infection, with similar results for symptomatic infection. Higher rates of building-level vaccine uptake were associated with a lower overall rate of PCR-confirmed infection and symptomatic infection among unvaccinated residents. Among unvaccinated residents who lived in shared cells at the time of presumed exposure, exposure to a vaccinated cellmate was associated with a 38% (95% CI: 0.37, 1.04) lower hazard rate of PCR-confirmed infection over the study period. In this outbreak involving the Alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant, vaccination conferred direct and possibly indirect protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19. Our results support the importance of vaccine uptake in mitigating outbreaks and severe disease in the prison setting and the consideration of community vaccination levels in policy and infection response.

Stress and Anxiety Among Correctional Health Care Professionals in a U.S. State Prison System During COVID-19.

Since prisons were an epicenter of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the experience of correctional health care professionals (HCPs) may differ from HCPs in other settings. This cross-sectional descriptive study assessed stress, anxiety, and burnout levels in home and work environments among HCPs employed by one U.S. state prison system during the period of initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Participants (N = 444) were invited to voluntarily participate in an anonymous questionnaire distributed by prison administration from March 1 through May 17, 2021. Measures were adapted from a prior study of noncorrectional HCPs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Descriptive statistics (mean; standard deviation; 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles), ranking measures that could alleviate anxiety and stress related to the pandemic, and qualitative responses were analyzed. Responses from 43% of HCPs (192) revealed that correctional HCPs experienced high levels of stress and anxiety at work and at home during the pandemic, with particularly high levels among females and registered nurses. Understanding and addressing these stressors will be of critical importance as prison systems work to avoid turnover of experienced HCPs in such specialized settings and also help inform human resource planning at state prison systems for future public health responses.

Ventilation conditions during COVID-19 outbreaks in six California state carceral institutions.

Residents of carceral facilities are exposed to poor ventilation conditions which leads to the spread of communicable diseases such as COVID-19. Indoor ventilation conditions are rarely studied within carceral settings and there remains limited capacity to develop solutions to address the impact of poor ventilation on the health of people who are incarcerated. In this study, we empirically measured ventilation rates within housing units of six adult prisons in the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) and compare the measured ventilation rates to recommended standards issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). Findings from the empirical assessment include lower ventilation rates than the recommended ventilation standards with particularly low ventilation during winter months when heating systems were in use. Inadvertent airflows from spaces housing potentially infected individuals to shared common spaces was also observed. The methodology used for this work can be leveraged for routine ventilation monitoring, pandemic preparedness, and disaster response.

Can a private sector engagement intervention that prioritizes pro-poor strategies improve healthcare access and quality? A randomized field experiment in Kenya.

Private sector engagement in health reform has been suggested to help reduce healthcare inequities in sub-Saharan Africa, where populations with the most need seek the least care. We study the effects of African Health Markets for Equity (AHME), a cluster randomized controlled trial carried out in Kenya from 2012 to 2020 at 199 private health clinics. AHME included four clinic-level interventions: social health insurance, social franchising, SafeCare quality-of-care certification programme and business support. This paper evaluates whether AHME increased the capacity of private health clinics to serve poor clients while maintaining or enhancing the quality of care provided. At endline, clinics that received AHME were 14.5 percentage points (pp) more likely to be empanelled with the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF), served 51% more NHIF clients and served more clients from the middle three quintiles of the wealth distribution compared to control clinics. Comparing individuals living in households near AHME treatment and control clinics (N = 8241), AHME led to a 6.7-pp increase in the probability of holding any health insurance on average. We did not find any additional effect of AHME on insurance holding among poor households. We measured quality of care using a standardized patient (SP) experiment (N = 596 SP-provider interactions) where recruited and trained SPs were randomized to present as either 'not poor', and able to afford all services provided, or 'poor' by telling the provider they could only afford ∼300 Kenyan Shillings (US$3) in fees. We found that poor SPs received lower levels of both correct and unnecessary services, and AHME did not affect this. More work must be done to ensure that clients of all wealth levels receive high-quality care.

Do private providers initiate anti-tuberculosis therapy on the basis of chest radiographs? A standardised patient study in urban India.

Background: The initiation of anti-tuberculosis treatment (ATT) based on results of WHO-approved microbiological diagnostics is an important marker of quality tuberculosis (TB) care. Evidence suggests that other diagnostic processes leading to treatment initiation may be preferred in high TB incidence settings. This study examines whether private providers start anti-TB therapy on the basis of chest radiography (CXR) and clinical examinations. Methods: This study uses the standardized patient (SP) methodology to generate accurate and unbiased estimates of private sector, primary care provider practice when a patient presents a standardized TB case scenario with an abnormal CXR. Using multivariate log-binomial and linear regressions with standard errors clustered at the provider level, we analyzed 795 SP visits conducted over three data collection waves from 2014 to 2020 in two Indian cities. Data were inverse-probability-weighted based on the study sampling strategy, resulting in city-wave-representative results. Findings: Amongst SPs who presented to a provider with an abnormal CXR, 25% (95% CI: 21-28%) visits resulted in ideal management, defined as the provider prescribing a microbiological test and not offering a concurrent prescription for a corticosteroid or antibiotic (including anti-TB medications). In contrast, 23% (95% CI: 19-26%) of 795 visits were prescribed anti-TB medications. Of 795 visits, 13% (95% CI: 10-16%) resulted in anti-TB treatment prescriptions/dispensation and an order for confirmatory microbiological testing. Interpretation: One in five SPs presenting with abnormal CXR were prescribed ATT by private providers. This study contributes novel insights to empiric treatment prevalence based on CXR abnormality. Further work is needed to understand how providers make trade-offs between existing diagnostic practices, new technologies, profits, clinical outcomes, and the market dynamics with laboratories. Funding: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant OPP1091843), and the Knowledge for Change Program at The World Bank.

Use of standardised patients to assess tuberculosis case management by private pharmacies in Patna, India: A repeat cross-sectional study.

As the first point of care for many healthcare seekers, private pharmacies play an important role in tuberculosis (TB) care. However, previous studies in India have showed that private pharmacies commonly dispense symptomatic treatments and broad-spectrum antibiotics over-the-counter (OTC), rather than referring patients for TB testing. Such inappropriate management by pharmacies can delaye TB diagnosis. We assessed medical advice and OTC drug dispensing practices of pharmacists for standardized patients presenting with classic symptoms of pulmonary TB (case 1) and for those with sputum smear positive pulmonary TB (case 2), and examined how practices have changed over time in an urban Indian site. We examined how and whether private pharmacies improved practices for TB in 2019 compared to a baseline study conducted in 2015 in the city of Patna, using the same survey sampling techniques and study staff. The proportion of patient-pharmacist interactions that resulted in correct or ideal management, as well as the proportion of interactions resulting in antibiotic, quinolone, and corticosteroid are presented, with standard errors clustered at the provider level. To assess the difference in case management and the use of drugs across the two cases by round, a difference in difference (DiD) model was employed. A total of 936 SP interactions were completed over both rounds of survey. Our results indicate that across both rounds of data collection, 331 of 936 (35%; 95% CI: 32-38%) of interactions were correctly managed. At baseline, 215 of 500 (43%; 95% CI: 39-47%) of interactions were correctly managed whereas 116 of 436 (27%; 95% CI: 23-31%) were correctly managed in the second round of data collection. Ideal management, where in addition to a referral, patients were not prescribed any potentially harmful medications, was seen in 275 of 936 (29%; 95% CI: 27-32%) of interactions overall, with 194 of 500 (39%; 95% CI: 35-43%) of interactions at baseline and 81 of 436 (19%; 95% CI: 15-22%) in round 2. No private pharmacy dispensed anti-TB medications without a prescription. On average, the difference in correct case management between case 1 vs. case 2 dropped by 20 percent points from baseline to the second round of data collection. Similarly, ideal case management decreased by 26 percentage points between rounds. This is in contrast with the dispensation of medicines, which had the opposite effect between rounds; the difference in dispensation of quinolones between case 1 and case 2 increased by 14 percentage points, as did corticosteroids by 9 percentage points, antibiotics by 25 percentage points and medicines generally by 30 percentage points. Our standardised patient study provides valuable insights into how private pharmacies in an Indian city changed their management of patients with TB symptoms or with confirmed TB over a 5-year period. We saw that overall, private pharmacy performance has weakened over time. However, no OTC dispensation of anti-TB medications occurred in either survey round. As the first point of contact for many care seekers, continued and sustained efforts to engage with Indian private pharmacies should be prioritized.

Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and reinfections during the Omicron wave.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections in previously infected individuals have become increasingly common. Such infections highlight a broader need to understand the contribution of vaccination, including booster doses, and natural immunity to the infectiousness of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infections, especially in high-risk populations with intense transmission, such as in prisons. Here we show that both vaccine-derived and naturally acquired immunity independently reduce the infectiousness of persons with Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infections in a prison setting. Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from December 2021 to May 2022 across 35 California state prisons with a predominately male population, we estimate that unvaccinated Omicron cases had a 36% (95% confidence interval (CI): 31-42%) risk of transmitting infection to close contacts, as compared to a 28% (25-31%) risk among vaccinated cases. In adjusted analyses, we estimated that any vaccination, prior infection alone and both vaccination and prior infection reduced an index case's risk of transmitting infection by 22% (6-36%), 23% (3-39%) and 40% (20-55%), respectively. Receipt of booster doses and more recent vaccination further reduced infectiousness among vaccinated cases. These findings suggest that, although vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals remain highly infectious upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in this prison setting, their infectiousness is reduced compared to individuals without any history of vaccination or infection. This study underscores benefit of vaccination to reduce, but not eliminate, transmission.

Tuberculosis diagnosis and management in the public versus private sector: a standardised patients study in Mumbai, India.

BACKGROUND: There are few rigorous studies comparing quality of tuberculosis (TB) care in public versus private sectors. METHODS: We used standardised patients (SPs) to measure technical quality and patient experience in a sample of private and public facilities in Mumbai. RESULTS: SPs presented a 'classic, suspected TB' scenario and a 'recurrence or drug-resistance' scenario. In the private sector, SPs completed 643 interactions. In the public sector, 164 interactions. Outcomes included indicators of correct management, medication use and client experience. Public providers used microbiological testing (typically, microscopy) more frequently, in 123 of 164 (75%; 95% CI 68% to 81%) vs 223 of 644 interactions (35%; 95% CI 31% to 38%) in the private sector. Private providers were more likely to order chest X-rays, in 556 of 639 interactions (86%; 95% CI 84% to 89%). According to national TB guidelines, we found higher proportions of correct management in the public sector (75% vs 35%; (adjusted) difference 35 percentage points (pp); 95% CI 25 to 46). If X-rays were considered acceptable for the first case but drug-susceptibility testing was required for the second case, the private sector correctly managed a slightly higher proportion of interactions (67% vs 51%; adjusted difference 16 pp; 95% CI 7 to 25). Broad-spectrum antibiotics were used in 76% (95% CI 66% to 84%) of the interactions in public hospitals, and 61% (95% CI 58% to 65%) in private facilities. Costs in the private clinics averaged rupees INR 512 (95% CI 485 to 539); public facilities charged INR 10. Private providers spent more time with patients (4.4 min vs 2.4 min; adjusted difference 2.0 min; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.9) and asked a greater share of relevant questions (29% vs 43%; adjusted difference 13.7 pp; 95% CI 8.2 to 19.3). CONCLUSIONS: While the public providers did a better job of adhering to national TB guidelines (especially microbiological testing) and offered less expensive care, private sector providers did better on client experience.

Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and reinfections during the Omicron wave.

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections among previously infected individuals have become increasingly common. Such infections highlight a broader need to understand the contribution of vaccination, including booster doses, and natural immunity to the infectiousness of persons with SARS-CoV-2 infections, especially in high-risk populations with intense transmission such as prisons. Here, we show that both vaccine-derived and naturally acquired immunity independently reduce the infectiousness of persons with Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infections in a prison setting. Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data from December 2021 to May 2022 across 35 California state prisons with a predominately male population, we estimate that unvaccinated Omicron cases had a 36% (95% confidence interval (CI): 31-42%) risk of transmitting infection to close contacts, as compared to 28% (25-31%) risk among vaccinated cases. In adjusted analyses, we estimated that any vaccination, prior infection alone, and both vaccination and prior infection reduced an index case's risk of transmitting infection by 22% (6-36%), 23% (3-39%) and 40% (20-55%), respectively. Receipt of booster doses and more recent vaccination further reduced infectiousness among vaccinated cases. These findings suggest that although vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals remain highly infectious upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in this prison setting, their infectiousness is reduced compared to individuals without any history of vaccination or infection, underscoring some benefit of vaccination to reduce but not eliminate transmission.

The Impact Of COVID-19 On The Health Of Incarcerated Older Adults In California State Prisons.

The number of older adults (age fifty-five or older) incarcerated in US prisons reached an all-time high just as COVID-19 entered correctional facilities in 2020. However, little is known about COVID-19's impact on incarcerated older adults. We compared COVID-19 outcomes between older and younger adults in California state prisons from March 1, 2020, to October 9, 2021. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) revealed an increasing risk for adverse COVID-19 outcomes among older age groups (ages 55-64, 65-74, and 75 or older) compared with younger adults, including for documented infection (aOR, 1.3, 1.4, and 1.4, respectively) and hospitalization with COVID-19 (aOR, 4.6, 8.7, and 15.1, respectively). Moreover, although accounting for 17.3 percent of the California state prison population, older adults represented 85.8 percent of this population's COVID-19-related deaths. Yet a smaller percentage of older adults than younger adults were released from prison during the pandemic. The differential rates of morbidity and mortality experienced by incarcerated older adults should be considered in future pandemic response strategies regarding prisons.

Modeling scenarios for mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings.

The explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings such as prisons and nursing homes, has highlighted a critical need for effective outbreak prevention and mitigation strategies for these settings. Here we consider how different types of control interventions impact the expected number of symptomatic infections due to outbreaks. Introduction of disease into the resident population from the community is modeled as a stochastic point process coupled to a branching process, while spread between residents is modeled via a deterministic compartmental model that accounts for depletion of susceptible individuals. Control is modeled as a proportional decrease in the number of susceptible residents, the reproduction number, and/or the proportion of symptomatic infections. This permits a range of assumptions about the density dependence of transmission and modes of protection by vaccination, depopulation and other types of control. We find that vaccination or depopulation can have a greater than linear effect on the expected number of cases. For example, assuming a reproduction number of 3.0 with density-dependent transmission, we find that preemptively reducing the size of the susceptible population by 20% reduced overall disease burden by 47%. In some circumstances, it may be possible to reduce the risk and burden of disease outbreaks by optimizing the way a group of residents are apportioned into distinct residential units. The optimal apportionment may be different depending on whether the goal is to reduce the probability of an outbreak occurring, or the expected number of cases from outbreak dynamics. In other circumstances there may be an opportunity to implement reactive disease control measures in which the number of susceptible individuals is rapidly reduced once an outbreak has been detected to occur. Reactive control is most effective when the reproduction number is not too high, and there is minimal delay in implementing control. We highlight the California state prison system as an example for how these findings provide a quantitative framework for understanding disease transmission in congregate settings. Our approach and accompanying interactive website (https://phoebelu.shinyapps.io/DepopulationModels/) provides a quantitative framework to evaluate the potential impact of policy decisions governing infection control in outbreak settings.

Respiratory pandemic preparedness learnings from the June 2020 COVID-19 outbreak at San Quentin California State Prison.

PURPOSE: This study aims to characterize the June 2020 COVID-19 outbreak at San Quentin California State Prison and to describe what made San Quentin so vulnerable to uncontrolled transmission. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Since its onset, the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed and exacerbated the profound health harms of carceral settings, such that nearly half of state prisons reported COVID-19 infection rates that were four or more times (and up to 15 times) the rate found in the state's general population. Thus, addressing the public health crises and inequities of carceral settings during a respiratory pandemic requires analyzing the myriad factors shaping them. In this study, we reported observations and findings from environmental risk assessments during visits to San Quentin California State Prison. We complemented our assessments with analyses of administrative data. FINDINGS: For future respiratory pathogens that cannot be prevented with effective vaccines, this study argues that outbreaks will no doubt occur again without robust implementation of additional levels of preparedness - improved ventilation, air filtration, decarceration with emergency evacuation planning - alongside addressing the vulnerabilities of carceral settings themselves. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study addresses two critical aspects that are insufficiently covered in the literature: how to prepare processes to safely implement emergency epidemic measures when needed, such as potential evacuation, and how to address unique challenges throughout an evolving pandemic for each carceral setting.

COVID-19 outbreak in a state prison: a case study on the implementation of key public health recommendations for containment and prevention.

BACKGROUND: People incarcerated in US prisons have been disproportionately harmed by the COVID-19 pandemic. That prisons are such efficient superspreading environments can be attributed to several known factors: small, communal facilities where people are confined for prolonged periods of time; poor ventilation; a lack of non-punitive areas for quarantine/medical isolation; and staggeringly high numbers of people experiencing incarceration, among others. While health organizations have issued guidance on preventing and mitigating COVID-19 infection in carceral settings, little is known about if, when, and how recommendations have been implemented. We examined factors contributing to containment of one of the first California prison COVID-19 outbreaks and remaining vulnerabilities using an adapted multi-level determinants framework to systematically assess infectious disease risk in carceral settings. METHODS: Case study employing administrative data; observation; and informal discussions with: people incarcerated at the prison, staff, and county public health officials. RESULTS: Outbreak mitigation efforts were characterized by pre-planning (e.g., designation of ventilated, single-occupancy quarantine) and a quickly mobilized inter-institutional response that facilitated systematic, voluntary rapid testing. However, several systemic- and institutional-level vulnerabilities were unaddressed hindering efforts and posing significant risk for future outbreaks, including insufficient decarceration, continued inter-facility transfers, incomplete staff cohorting, and incompatibility between built environment features (e.g., dense living conditions) and public health recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: Our adapted framework facilitates systematically assessing prison-based infectious disease outbreaks and multi-level interventions. We find implementing some recommended public health strategies may have contributed to outbreak containment. However, even with a rapidly mobilized, inter-institutional response, failure to decarcerate created an overreliance on chance conditions. This left the facility vulnerable to future catastrophic outbreaks and may render standard public health strategies - including the introduction of effective vaccines - insufficient to prevent or contain those outbreaks.

Do private providers give patients what they demand, even if it is inappropriate? A randomised study using unannounced standardised patients in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Low and varied quality of care has been demonstrated for childhood illnesses in low-income and middle-income countries. Some quality improvement strategies focus on increasing patient engagement; however, evidence suggests that patients demanding medicines can favour the selection of resistant microbial strains in the individual and the community if drugs are inappropriately used. This study examines the effects on quality of care when patients demand different types of inappropriate medicines. METHODS: We conducted an experiment where unannounced standardised patients (SPs), locally recruited individuals trained to simulate a standardised case, present at private clinics. Between 8 March and 28 May 2019, 10 SPs portraying caretakers of a watery diarrhoea childhood case scenario (in absentia) conducted N=200 visits at 200 private, primary care clinics in Kenya. Half of the clinics were randomly assigned to receive an SP demanding amoxicillin (an antibiotic); the other half, an SP demanding albendazole (an antiparasitic drug often used for deworming), with other presenting characteristics the same. We used logistic and linear regression models to assess the effects of demanding these inappropriate medicines on correct and unnecessary case management outcomes. RESULTS: Compared with 3% among those who did not demand albendazole, the dispensing rate increased significantly to 34% for those who did (adjusted OR 0.06, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.22, p<0.0001). Providers did not give different levels of amoxicillin between those demanding it and those not demanding it (adjusted OR 1.73, 95% CI 0.51 to 5.82). Neither significantly changed any correct management outcomes, such as treatment or referral elsewhere. CONCLUSION: Private providers appear to account for both business-driven benefits and individual health impacts when making prescribing decisions. Additional research is needed on provider knowledge and perceptions of profit and individual and community health trade-offs when making prescription decisions after patients demand different types of inappropriate medicines. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: American Economic Association Registry (#AEARCTR-0000217) and Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (#PACTR201502000770329).

Prescribing practices for presumptive TB among private general practitioners in South Africa: a cross-sectional, standardised patient study.

INTRODUCTION: Medicine prescribing practices are integral to quality of care for leading infectious diseases such as tuberculosis (TB). We describe prescribing practices in South Africa's private health sector, where an estimated third of people with TB symptoms first seek care. METHODS: Sixteen standardised patients (SPs) presented one of three cases during unannounced visits to private general practitioners (GPs) in Durban and Cape Town: TB symptoms, HIV-positive; TB symptoms, a positive molecular test for TB, HIV-negative; and TB symptoms, history of incomplete TB treatment, HIV-positive. Prescribing practices were recorded in standardised exit interviews and analysed based on their potential to contribute to negative outcomes, including increased healthcare expenditures, antibiotic overuse or misuse, and TB diagnostic delay. Factors associated with antibiotic use were assessed using Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator. RESULTS: Between August 2018 and July 2019, 511 SP visits were completed with 212 GPs. In 88.5% (95% CI 85.2% to 91.1%) of visits, at least one medicine (median 3) was dispensed or prescribed and most (93%) were directly dispensed. Antibiotics, which can contribute to TB diagnostic delay, were the most common medicine (76.5%, 95% CI 71.7% to 80.7% of all visits). A majority (86.1%, 95% CI 82.9% to 88.5%) belonged to the WHO Access group; fluoroquinolones made up 8.8% (95% CI 6.3% to 12.3%). Factors associated with antibiotic use included if the SP was asked to follow-up if symptoms persisted (RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.25) and if the SP presented as HIV-positive (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23). An injection was offered in 31.9% (95% CI 27.0% to 37.2%) of visits; 92% were unexplained. Most (61.8%, 95% CI 60.2% to 63.3%) medicines were not listed on the South African Primary Healthcare Essential Medicines List. CONCLUSION: Prescribing practices among private GPs for persons presenting with TB-like symptoms in South Africa raise concern about inappropriate antimicrobial use, private healthcare costs and TB diagnostic delay.

Simulated patients and their reality: An inquiry into theory and method.

Simulated standardized patients (SSP) have emerged as close to a 'gold standard' for measuring the quality of clinical care. This method resolves problems of patient mix across healthcare providers and allows care to be benchmarked against preexisting standards. Nevertheless, SSPs are not real patients. How, then, should data from SSPs be considered relative to clinical observations with 'real' patients in a given health system? Here, we reject the proposition that SSPs are direct substitutes for real patients and that the validity of SSP studies therefore relies on their ability to imitate real patients. Instead, we argue that the success of the SSP methodology lies in its counterfactual manipulations of the possibilities available to real careseekers - especially those paths not taken up by them - through which real responses can be elicited from real providers. Using results from a unique pilot study where SSPs returned to providers for follow-ups when asked, we demonstrate that the SSP method works well to elicit responses from the provider through conditional manipulations of SSP behavior. At the same time, observational methods are better suited to understand what choices real people make, and how these can affect the direction of diagnosis and treatment. A combination of SSP and observational methods can thus help parse out how quality of care emerges for the "patient" as a shared history between care-seeking individuals and care providers.

Tuberculosis care quality in urban Nigeria: A cross-sectional study of adherence to screening and treatment initiation guidelines in multi-cadre networks of private health service providers.

Nigeria has a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) and low case detection rates. Nigeria's large private health sector footprint represents an untapped resource for combating the disease. To examine the quality of private sector contributions to TB, the USAID-funded Sustaining Health Outcomes through the Private Sector (SHOPS) Plus program evaluated adherence to national standards for management of presumptive and confirmed TB among the clinical facilities, laboratories, pharmacies, and drug shops it trained to deliver TB services. The study used a standardized patient (SP) survey methodology to measure case management protocol adherence among 837 private and 206 public providers in urban Lagos and Kano. It examined two different scenarios: a "textbook" case of presumptive TB and a treatment initiation case where SPs presented as referred patients with confirmed TB diagnoses. Private sector results were benchmarked against public sector results. A bottleneck analysis examined protocol adherence departures at key points along the case management sequence that providers were trained to follow. Except for laboratories, few providers met the criteria for fully correct management of presumptive TB, though more than 70% of providers correctly engaged in TB screening. In the treatment initiation case 18% of clinical providers demonstrated fully correct case management. Private and public providers' adherence was not significantly different. Bottleneck analysis revealed that the most common deviations from correct management were failure to initiate sputum collection for presumptive patients and failure to conduct sufficiently thorough treatment initiation counseling for confirmed patients. This study found the quality of private providers' TB case management to be comparable to public providers in Nigeria, as well as to providers in other high burden countries. Findings support continued efforts to include private providers in Nigeria's national TB program. Though most providers fell short of desired quality, the bottleneck analysis points to specific issues that TB stakeholders can feasibly address with system- and provider-level interventions.

Mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings by decreasing the size of the susceptible population.

While many transmission models have been developed for community spread of respiratory pathogens, less attention has been given to modeling the interdependence of disease introduction and spread seen in congregate settings, such as prisons or nursing homes. As demonstrated by the explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings, the need for effective outbreak prevention and mitigation strategies for these settings is critical. Here we consider how interventions that decrease the size of the susceptible populations, such as vaccination or depopulation, impact the expected number of infections due to outbreaks. Introduction of disease into the resident population from the community is modeled as a branching process, while spread between residents is modeled via a compartmental model. Control is modeled as a proportional decrease in both the number of susceptible residents and the reproduction number. We find that vaccination or depopulation can have a greater than linear effect on anticipated infections. For example, assuming a reproduction number of 3.0 for density-dependent COVID-19 transmission, we find that reducing the size of the susceptible population by 20% reduced overall disease burden by 47%. We highlight the California state prison system as an example for how these findings provide a quantitative framework for implementing infection control in congregate settings. Additional applications of our modeling framework include optimizing the distribution of residents into independent residential units, and comparison of preemptive versus reactive vaccination strategies.