Design of the SPIROMICS Study of Early COPD Progression: SOURCE Study.

The biological mechanisms leading some tobacco-exposed individuals to develop early-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are poorly understood. This knowledge gap hampers development of disease-modifying agents for this prevalent condition. Accord-ingly, with National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute support, we initiated the SPIROMICS Study of Early COPD Progression (SOURCE), a multicenter observational cohort study of younger individuals with a history of cigarette smoking and thus at-risk for, or with, early-stage COPD. Our overall objectives are to identify those who will develop COPD earlier in life, characterize them thoroughly, and by contrasting them to those not developing COPD, define mechanisms of disease progression. SOURCE utilizes the established SPIROMICS clinical network. Its goal is to enroll n=649 participants, ages 30-55 years, all races/ethnicities, with ≥10 pack-years cigarette smoking, in either Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) groups 0-2 or with Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry (PRISm); and an additional n=40 never-smoker controls. Participants undergo baseline and three-year follow-up visits, each including high-resolution computed tomography; respiratory oscillometry and spirometry (pre- and post-bronchodilator administration), exhaled breath condensate (baseline only); and extensive biospecimen collection, including sputum induction. Symptoms, interim healthcare utilization, and exacerbations are captured every six months via follow-up phone calls. An embedded bronchoscopy sub-study involving n=100 participants (including all never-smokers) will allow collection of lower airway samples for genetic, epigenetic, genomic, immunological, microbiome, mucin analyses, and basal cell culture. SOURCE should provide novel insights into the natural history of lung disease in younger individuals with a smoking history, and its biological basis.

Use of Pulmonary Rehabilitation After COPD Hospitalization: An Analysis of Statewide Patient and Hospital Data.

RATIONALE: Pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) is a clinically and cost-effective outpatient treatment for COPD that remains highly underutilized. Existing analyses of PR utilization patterns have been largely focused on patient characteristics, however hospital level analysis is lacking, and is needed to inform interventions aimed at improving utilization after COPD hospitalization. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate PR utilization across hospitals after COPD hospitalization in the state of Michigan, with the goal of characterizing hospital level variation and identifying the characteristics of high-performing hospitals. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of patients with a COPD hospitalization between 1/1/18 and 12/31/21 using claims data from the Michigan Value Collaborative (MVC) and hospital data from the American Hospital Association annual survey. Our primary outcome was initiation of PR within 30 days of discharge. Chi-square tests and ANOVA were used to test for differences in patient and hospital covariates. Multilevel logistic regression was used to analyze associations between patient covariates and the primary outcome, and to characterize hospital level variation. RESULTS: A total of 36,389 patients and 99 hospitals were included in the analysis. The majority of patients were older than 65 years of age, female, White, and Medicare fee-for-service insured. The rate of PR initiation within 30 days after hospitalization was 0.8%. Adjusted rates of PR initiation by hospital ranged from 0.4-2.0%. Compared to the set reference groups, being female, in the 5th Distressed Community Index quintile, and being older than 85 years of age independently decreased the odds of initiating PR. Some variation in initiation rate was attributed to the hospital level (7% ICC 0.07, 95% CI 0.03-0.15). The median odds ratio was 1.6 for PR initiation by hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of PR initiation after COPD hospitalization are universally low across all hospitals, though there is some variation. Interventions targeted at patients alone are not sufficient to improve utilization. Hospital-based strategies to improve PR utilization after discharge, adapted from those being successfully used with cardiac rehabilitation, should be further explored.

Dynamic and prognostic proteomic associations with FEV1 decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Rationale: Identification and validation of circulating biomarkers for lung function decline in COPD remains an unmet need. Objective: Identify prognostic and dynamic plasma protein biomarkers of COPD progression. Methods: We measured plasma proteins using SomaScan from two COPD-enriched cohorts, the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) and Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene), and one population-based cohort, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung. Using SPIROMICS as a discovery cohort, linear mixed models identified baseline proteins that predicted future change in FEV1 (prognostic model) and proteins whose expression changed with change in lung function (dynamic model). Findings were replicated in COPDGene and MESA-Lung. Using the COPD-enriched cohorts, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) identified proteins shared between COPDGene and SPIROMICS. Metascape identified significant associated pathways. Measurements and Main Results: The prognostic model found 7 significant proteins in common (p < 0.05) among all 3 cohorts. After applying false discovery rate (adjusted p < 0.2), leptin remained significant in all three cohorts and growth hormone receptor remained significant in the two COPD cohorts. Elevated baseline levels of leptin and growth hormone receptor were associated with slower rate of decline in FEV1. Twelve proteins were nominally but not FDR significant in the dynamic model and all were distinct from the prognostic model. Metascape identified several immune related pathways unique to prognostic and dynamic proteins. Conclusion: We identified leptin as the most reproducible COPD progression biomarker. The difference between prognostic and dynamic proteins suggests disease activity signatures may be different from prognosis signatures.

Local heterogeneity of normal lung parenchyma and small airways disease are associated with COPD severity and progression.

BACKGROUND: Small airways disease (SAD) is a major cause of airflow obstruction in COPD patients and has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Although the amount of SAD in the lungs can be quantified using our Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) approach, the full breadth of this readout as a measure of emphysema and COPD progression has yet to be explored. We evaluated topological features of PRM-derived normal parenchyma and SAD as surrogates of emphysema and predictors of spirometric decline. METHODS: PRM metrics of normal lung (PRMNorm) and functional SAD (PRMfSAD) were generated from CT scans collected as part of the COPDGene study (n = 8956). Volume density (V) and Euler-Poincaré Characteristic (χ) image maps, measures of the extent and coalescence of pocket formations (i.e., topologies), respectively, were determined for both PRMNorm and PRMfSAD. Association with COPD severity, emphysema, and spirometric measures were assessed via multivariable regression models. Readouts were evaluated as inputs for predicting FEV1 decline using a machine learning model. RESULTS: Multivariable cross-sectional analysis of COPD subjects showed that V and χ measures for PRMfSAD and PRMNorm were independently associated with the amount of emphysema. Readouts χfSAD (ß of 0.106, p < 0.001) and VfSAD (ß of 0.065, p = 0.004) were also independently associated with FEV1% predicted. The machine learning model using PRM topologies as inputs predicted FEV1 decline over five years with an AUC of 0.69. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that V and χ of fSAD and Norm have independent value when associated with lung function and emphysema. In addition, we demonstrated that these readouts are predictive of spirometric decline when used as inputs in a ML model. Our topological PRM approach using PRMfSAD and PRMNorm may show promise as an early indicator of emphysema onset and COPD progression.

Risk Factors for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations among Individuals without a History of Recent Exacerbations: A COPDGene Analysis.

Rationale: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPD) are detrimental events in the natural history of COPD, but the risk factors associated with future exacerbations in the absence of a history of recent exacerbations are not fully understood. Objectives: To identify risk factors for COPD exacerbations among participants in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study (COPDGene) without a history of exacerbation in the previous year. Methods: We identified participants with a smoking history enrolled in COPDGene who had COPD (defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1]/forced vital capacity < 0.70), no exacerbation in the year before their second study site visit, and who completed at least one longitudinal follow-up questionnaire in the following 36 months. We used univariable and multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to identify risk factors associated with increased rates of exacerbation. Each risk factor's regression coefficient (ß) was rounded to the nearest 0.25 and incorporated into a graduated risk score. Results: Among the 1,528 participants with a smoking history and COPD enrolled in COPDGene without exacerbation in the year before their second study site visit, 508 participants (33.2%) had at least one moderate or severe exacerbation in the 36 months studied. Gastroesophageal reflux disease, chronic bronchitis, high symptom burden (as measured by Modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale and COPD Assessment Test), and lower FEV1% predicted were associated with an increased risk of exacerbation. Each 1-point increase in our graduated risk score was associated with a 25-30% increase in exacerbation rate in the 36 months studied. Conclusions: In patients with COPD without a recent history of exacerbations, gastroesophageal reflux disease, chronic bronchitis, high symptom burden, and lower lung function are associated with increased risk of future exacerbation using a simple risk score that can be used in clinical practice.

Associations Between Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Exacerbation Risk in BLOCK-COPD.

Introduction: In 2019, the Beta-Blockers for the Prevention of Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease study (BLOCK-COPD) evaluated the effect of metoprolol on exacerbation risk and mortality in a COPD population without indications for beta-blocker use. We hypothesized that an imaging metric of coronary artery disease (CAD), the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, would predict exacerbation risk and identify a differential response to metoprolol treatment. Methods: The study population includes participants in the BLOCK-COPD study from multiple study sites. Participants underwent clinically indicated thoracic computed tomography (CT) scans ± 12 months from enrollment. The Weston scoring system quantified CAC. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models evaluated for associations between CAC and time to exacerbation. Results: Data is included for 109 participants. The mean CAC score was 5.1±3.7, and 92 participants (84%) had CAC scores greater than 0. Over a median (interquartile range) follow-up time of 350 (280 to 352) days, there were 61 mild exacerbations and 19 severe/very severe exacerbations. No associations were found between exacerbations of any severity and CAC>0 or total CAC. Associations were observed between total CAC and CAC>0 in the left circumflex (LCx) and time to exacerbation of any severity (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.39, confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.79, p=0.01) and (aHR=1.96, 95% CI: 1.04-3.70, p=0.04), respectively. Conclusions: CAD is a prevalent comorbidity in COPD accounting for significant mortality. Our study confirms the high prevalence of CAD using the CAC score; however, we did not discover an association between CAC and exacerbation risk. We did find novel associations between CAC in the LCx and exacerbation risk which warrant further investigation in larger cohorts.

Topologic Parametric Response Mapping Identifies Tissue Subtypes Associated with Emphysema Progression.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Small airways disease (SAD) and emphysema are significant components of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a heterogenous disease where predicting progression is difficult. SAD, a principal cause of airflow obstruction in mild COPD, has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) of chest computed tomography (CT) can help distinguish SAD from emphysema. Specifically, topologic PRM can define local patterns of both diseases to characterize how and in whom COPD progresses. We aimed to determine if distribution of CT-based PRM of functional SAD (fSAD) is associated with emphysema progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed paired inspiratory-expiratory chest CT scans at baseline and 5-year follow up in 1495 COPDGene subjects using topological analyses of PRM classifications. By spatially aligning temporal scans, we mapped local emphysema at year five to baseline lobar PRM-derived topological readouts. K-means clustering was applied to all observations. Subjects were subtyped based on predominant PRM cluster assignments and assessed using non-parametric statistical tests to determine differences in PRM values, pulmonary function metrics, and clinical measures. RESULTS: We identified distinct lobar imaging patterns and classified subjects into three radiologic subtypes: emphysema-dominant (ED), fSAD-dominant (FD), and fSAD-transition (FT: transition from healthy lung to fSAD). Relative to year five emphysema, FT showed rapid local emphysema progression (-57.5% ± 1.1) compared to FD (-49.9% ± 0.5) and ED (-33.1% ± 0.4). FT consisted primarily of at-risk subjects (roughly 60%) with normal spirometry. CONCLUSION: The FT subtype of COPD may allow earlier identification of individuals without spirometrically-defined COPD at-risk for developing emphysema.

Plasma metabolomics and quantitative interstitial abnormalities in ever-smokers.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIA) are an automated computed tomography (CT) finding of early parenchymal lung disease, associated with worse lung function, reduced exercise capacity, increased respiratory symptoms, and death. The metabolomic perturbations associated with QIA are not well known. We sought to identify plasma metabolites associated with QIA in smokers. We also sought to identify shared and differentiating metabolomics features between QIA and emphysema, another smoking-related advanced radiographic abnormality. METHODS: In 928 former and current smokers in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD cohort, we measured QIA and emphysema using an automated local density histogram method and generated metabolite profiles from plasma samples using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (Metabolon). We assessed the associations between metabolite levels and QIA using multivariable linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, pack-years, and inhaled corticosteroid use, at a Benjamini-Hochberg False Discovery Rate p-value of ≤ 0.05. Using multinomial regression models adjusted for these covariates, we assessed the associations between metabolite levels and the following CT phenotypes: QIA-predominant, emphysema-predominant, combined-predominant, and neither- predominant. Pathway enrichment analyses were performed using MetaboAnalyst. RESULTS: We found 85 metabolites significantly associated with QIA, with overrepresentation of the nicotinate and nicotinamide, histidine, starch and sucrose, pyrimidine, phosphatidylcholine, lysophospholipid, and sphingomyelin pathways. These included metabolites involved in inflammation and immune response, extracellular matrix remodeling, surfactant, and muscle cachexia. There were 75 metabolites significantly different between QIA-predominant and emphysema-predominant phenotypes, with overrepresentation of the phosphatidylethanolamine, nicotinate and nicotinamide, aminoacyl-tRNA, arginine, proline, alanine, aspartate, and glutamate pathways. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolomic correlates may lend insight to the biologic perturbations and pathways that underlie clinically meaningful quantitative CT measurements like QIA in smokers.

Levels of Urinary Mercapturic Acids of Acrolein, Methacrolein, Crotonaldehyde, and Methyl Vinyl Ketone in Relationship to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Cigarette Smokers of the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS).

Cigarette smoking is an established cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Numerous studies implicate acrolein, which occurs in relatively high concentrations in cigarette smoke and reacts readily with proteins, as one causative factor for COPD in smokers. Far less is known about the possible roles in COPD of the related α,ß-unsaturated carbonyl compounds of cigarette smoke crotonaldehyde, methacrolein, and methyl vinyl ketone. In the study reported here, we analyzed mercapturic acids of these α,ß-unsaturated compounds in the urine of 413 confirmed cigarette smokers in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS)─202 with COPD and 211 without COPD. The mercapturic acids analyzed were 3-hydroxypropyl mercapturic acid (3-HPMA) from acrolein, 3-hydroxy-1-methylpropyl mercapturic acid (HMPMA-1) from crotonaldehyde, 3-hydroxy-2-methylpropyl mercapturic acid (HMPMA-2) from methacrolein, and 3-hydroxy-3-methylpropyl mercapturic acid (HMPMA-3) from methyl vinyl ketone. In models adjusting for age, sex, race, pack years of tobacco use, and BMI, all four mercapturic acids were increased in individuals with COPD but not significantly. Stratified by the GOLD status, there were increased levels of the metabolites associated with GOLD 3-4 compared to that with GOLD 0, with the methacrolein metabolite HMPMA-2 reaching statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio 1.23 [95% CI: 1.00-1.53]). These results highlight the possible role of methacrolein, which has previously received little attention in this regard, as a causative factor in COPD in cigarette smokers.

Quantitative CT of Normal Lung Parenchyma and Small Airways Disease Topologies are Associated With COPD Severity and Progression.

Objectives: Small airways disease (SAD) is a major cause of airflow obstruction in COPD patients, and has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Although the amount of SAD in the lungs can be quantified using our Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) approach, the full breadth of this readout as a measure of emphysema and COPD progression has yet to be explored. We evaluated topological features of PRM-derived normal parenchyma and SAD as surrogates of emphysema and predictors of spirometric decline. Materials and Methods: PRM metrics of normal lung (PRMNorm) and functional SAD (PRMfSAD) were generated from CT scans collected as part of the COPDGene study (n=8956). Volume density (V) and Euler-Poincaré Characteristic (χ) image maps, measures of the extent and coalescence of pocket formations (i.e., topologies), respectively, were determined for both PRMNorm and PRMfSAD. Association with COPD severity, emphysema, and spirometric measures were assessed via multivariable regression models. Readouts were evaluated as inputs for predicting FEV1 decline using a machine learning model. Results: Multivariable cross-sectional analysis of COPD subjects showed that V and χ measures for PRMfSAD and PRMNorm were independently associated with the amount of emphysema. Readouts χfSAD (ß of 0.106, p<0.001) and VfSAD (ß of 0.065, p=0.004) were also independently associated with FEV1% predicted. The machine learning model using PRM topologies as inputs predicted FEV1 decline over five years with an AUC of 0.69. Conclusions: We demonstrated that V and χ of fSAD and Norm have independent value when associated with lung function and emphysema. In addition, we demonstrated that these readouts are predictive of spirometric decline when used as inputs in a ML model. Our topological PRM approach using PRMfSAD and PRMNorm may show promise as an early indicator of emphysema onset and COPD progression.

Blood Gene Expression and Immune Cell Subtypes Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations.

Rationale: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPDs) are associated with a significant disease burden. Blood immune phenotyping may improve our understanding of a COPD endotype at increased risk of exacerbations. Objective: To determine the relationship between the transcriptome of circulating leukocytes and COPD exacerbations. Methods: Blood RNA sequencing data (n = 3,618) from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) study were analyzed. Blood microarray data (n = 646) from the ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) study were used for validation. We tested the association between blood gene expression and AE-COPDs. We imputed the abundance of leukocyte subtypes and tested their association with prospective AE-COPDs. Flow cytometry was performed on blood in SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes in COPD Study) (n = 127), and activation markers for T cells were tested for association with prospective AE-COPDs. Measurements and Main Results: Exacerbations were reported 4,030 and 2,368 times during follow-up in COPDGene (5.3 ± 1.7 yr) and ECLIPSE (3 yr), respectively. We identified 890, 675, and 3,217 genes associated with a history of AE-COPDs, persistent exacerbations (at least one exacerbation per year), and prospective exacerbation rate, respectively. In COPDGene, the number of prospective exacerbations in patients with COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage ⩾2) was negatively associated with circulating CD8+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, and resting natural killer cells. The negative association with naive CD4+ T cells was replicated in ECLIPSE. In the flow-cytometry study, an increase in CTLA4 on CD4+ T cells was positively associated with AE-COPDs. Conclusions: Individuals with COPD with lower circulating lymphocyte counts, particularly decreased CD4+ T cells, are more susceptible to AE-COPDs, including persistent exacerbations.

Machine learning for screening of at-risk, mild and moderate COPD patients at risk of FEV1 decline: results from COPDGene and SPIROMICS.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to train and validate machine learning models for predicting rapid decline of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) in individuals with a smoking history at-risk-for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD 0), or with mild-to-moderate (GOLD 1-2) COPD. We trained multiple models to predict rapid FEV1 decline using demographic, clinical and radiologic biomarker data. Training and internal validation data were obtained from the COPDGene study and prediction models were validated against the SPIROMICS cohort. Methods: We used GOLD 0-2 participants (n = 3,821) from COPDGene (60.0 ± 8.8 years, 49.9% male) for variable selection and model training. Accelerated lung function decline was defined as a mean drop in FEV1% predicted of > 1.5%/year at 5-year follow-up. We built logistic regression models predicting accelerated decline based on 22 chest CT imaging biomarker, pulmonary function, symptom, and demographic features. Models were validated using n = 885 SPIROMICS subjects (63.6 ± 8.6 years, 47.8% male). Results: The most important variables for predicting FEV1 decline in GOLD 0 participants were bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR), post bronchodilator FEV1% predicted (FEV1.pp.post), and CT-derived expiratory lung volume; among GOLD 1 and 2 subjects, they were BDR, age, and PRMlower lobes fSAD. In the validation cohort, GOLD 0 and GOLD 1-2 full variable models had significant predictive performance with AUCs of 0.620 ± 0.081 (p = 0.041) and 0.640 ± 0.059 (p < 0.001). Subjects with higher model-derived risk scores had significantly greater odds of FEV1 decline than those with lower scores. Conclusion: Predicting FEV1 decline in at-risk patients remains challenging but a combination of clinical, physiologic and imaging variables provided the best performance across two COPD cohorts.

Causes of and Clinical Features Associated with Death in Tobacco Cigarette Users by Lung Function Impairment.

Rationale: Cigarette smoking contributes to the risk of death through different mechanisms. Objectives: To determine how causes of and clinical features associated with death vary in tobacco cigarette users by lung function impairment. Methods: We stratified current and former tobacco cigarette users enrolled in Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) into normal spirometry, PRISm (Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-2 COPD, and GOLD 3-4 COPD. Deaths were identified via longitudinal follow-up and Social Security Death Index search. Causes of death were adjudicated after a review of death certificates, medical records, and next-of-kin interviews. We tested associations between baseline clinical variables and all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Measurements and Main Results: Over a 10.1-year median follow-up, 2,200 deaths occurred among 10,132 participants (age 59.5 ± 9.0 yr; 46.6% women). Death from cardiovascular disease was most frequent in PRISm (31% of deaths). Lung cancer deaths were most frequent in GOLD 1-2 (18% of deaths vs. 9-11% in other groups). Respiratory deaths outpaced competing causes of death in GOLD 3-4, particularly when BODE index ⩾7. St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score ⩾25 was associated with higher mortality in all groups: Hazard ratio (HR), 1.48 (1.20-1.84) normal spirometry; HR, 1.40 (1.05-1.87) PRISm; HR, 1.80 (1.49-2.17) GOLD 1-2; HR, 1.65 (1.26-2.17) GOLD 3-4. History of respiratory exacerbations was associated with higher mortality in GOLD 1-2 and GOLD 3-4, quantitative emphysema in GOLD 1-2, and airway wall thickness in PRISm and GOLD 3-4. Conclusions: Leading causes of death vary by lung function impairment in tobacco cigarette users. Worse respiratory-related quality of life is associated with all-cause mortality regardless of lung function.

Changes in Lung Volumes with Spirometric Disease Progression in COPD.

Background: Abnormal lung volumes representing air trapping identify the subset of smokers with preserved spirometry who develop spirometric chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and adverse outcomes. However, how lung volumes evolve in early COPD as airflow obstruction develops remains unclear. Methods: To establish how lung volumes change with the development of spirometric COPD, we examined lung volumes from the pulmonary function data (seated posture) available in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs electronic health records (n=71,356) and lung volumes measured by computed tomography (supine posture) available from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene®) study (n=7969) and the SubPopulations and InterMediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) (n=2552) cohorts, and studied their cross-sectional distributions and longitudinal changes across the airflow obstruction spectrum. Patients with preserved ratio-impaired spirometry (PRISm) were excluded from this analysis. Results: Lung volumes from all 3 cohorts showed similar patterns of distributions and longitudinal changes with worsening airflow obstruction. The distributions for total lung capacity (TLC), vital capacity (VC), and inspiratory capacity (IC) and their patterns of change were nonlinear and included different phases. When stratified by airflow obstruction using Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages, patients with GOLD 1 (mild) COPD had larger lung volumes (TLC, VC, IC) compared to patients with GOLD 0 (smokers with preserved spirometry) or GOLD 2 (moderate) disease. In longitudinal follow-up of baseline GOLD 0 patients who progressed to spirometric COPD, those with an initially higher TLC and VC developed mild obstruction (GOLD 1) while those with an initially lower TLC and VC developed moderate obstruction (GOLD 2). Conclusions: In COPD, TLC, and VC have biphasic distributions, change in nonlinear fashions as obstruction worsens, and could differentiate those GOLD 0 patients at risk for more rapid spirometric disease progression.

A blood and bronchoalveolar lavage protein signature of rapid FEV1 decline in smoking-associated COPD.

Accelerated progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased risks of hospitalization and death. Prognostic insights into mechanisms and markers of progression could facilitate development of disease-modifying therapies. Although individual biomarkers exhibit some predictive value, performance is modest and their univariate nature limits network-level insights. To overcome these limitations and gain insights into early pathways associated with rapid progression, we measured 1305 peripheral blood and 48 bronchoalveolar lavage proteins in individuals with COPD [n = 45, mean initial forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 75.6 ± 17.4% predicted]. We applied a data-driven analysis pipeline, which enabled identification of protein signatures that predicted individuals at-risk for accelerated lung function decline (FEV1 decline ≥ 70 mL/year) ~ 6 years later, with high accuracy. Progression signatures suggested that early dysregulation in elements of the complement cascade is associated with accelerated decline. Our results propose potential biomarkers and early aberrant signaling mechanisms driving rapid progression in COPD.

Lowering PCO2 With Noninvasive Ventilation Is Associated With Improved Survival in Chronic Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure is associated with high mortality. Although previous work has demonstrated a mortality improvement with high-intensity noninvasive ventilation in COPD, it is unclear whether a PCO2 reduction strategy is associated with improved outcomes in other populations of chronic hypercapnia. METHODS: The objective of this study was to investigate the association between PCO2 reduction (by using transcutaneous PCO2 as an estimate for PaCO2 and survival in a broad population of individuals treated with noninvasive ventilation for chronic hypercapnia. We hypothesized that reductions in PCO2 would be associated with improved survival. Therefore, we performed a cohort study of all the subjects evaluated from February 2012 to January 2021 for noninvasive ventilation initiation and/or optimization due to chronic hypercapnia at a home ventilation clinic in an academic center. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying coefficients and PCO2 as a time-varying covariate to test the association between PCO2 and all-cause mortality and when adjusting for known cofounders. RESULTS: The mean ± SD age of 337 subjects was 57 ± 16 years, 37% women, and 85% white. In a univariate analysis, survival probability increased with reductions in PCO2 to < 50 mm Hg after 90 d, and these remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, race, body mass index, diagnosis, Charlson comorbidity index, and baseline PCO2 . In the multivariable analysis, the subjects who had a PaCO2 < 50 mm Hg had a reduced mortality risk of 94% between 90 and 179 d (hazard ratio [HR] 0.06, 95% CI 0.01-0.50), 69% between 180 and 364 d (HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.12-0.79), and 73% for 365-730 d (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.13-0.56). CONCLUSIONS: Reduction in PCO2 from baseline for subjects with chronic hypercapnia treated with noninvasive ventilation was associated with improved survival. Management strategies should target the greatest attainable reductions in PCO2 .

Association of Occupational Exposures and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Morbidity.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to determine whether aggregate measures of occupational exposures are associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) outcomes in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD study cohort. METHODS: Individuals were assigned to six predetermined exposure hazard categories based on self-reported employment history. Multivariable regression, adjusted for age, sex, race, current smoking status, and smoking pack-years determined the association of such exposures to odds of COPD and morbidity measures. We compared these with the results of a single summary question regarding occupational exposure. RESULTS: A total of 2772 individuals were included. Some exposure estimates, including "gases and vapors" and "dust and fumes" exposures resulted in associations with effect estimates over two times the estimated effect size when compared with a single summary question. CONCLUSIONS: Use of occupational hazard categories can identify important associations with COPD morbidity while use of single-point measures may underestimate important differences in health risks.