VLST: Virtual Lung Screening Trial for Lung Cancer Detection Using Virtual Imaging Trial.

Importance: The efficacy of lung cancer screening can be significantly impacted by the imaging modality used. This Virtual Lung Screening Trial (VLST) addresses the critical need for precision in lung cancer diagnostics and the potential for reducing unnecessary radiation exposure in clinical settings. Objectives: To establish a virtual imaging trial (VIT) platform that accurately simulates real-world lung screening trials (LSTs) to assess the diagnostic accuracy of CT and CXR modalities. Design Setting and Participants: Utilizing computational models and machine learning algorithms, we created a diverse virtual patient population. The cohort, designed to mirror real-world demographics, was assessed using virtual imaging techniques that reflect historical imaging technologies. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the difference in the Area Under the Curve (AUC) for CT and CXR modalities across lesion types and sizes. Results: The study analyzed 298 CT and 313 CXR simulated images from 313 virtual patients, with a lesion-level AUC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.84) for CT and 0.55 (95% CI: 0.53-0.56) for CXR. At the patient level, CT demonstrated an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.80-0.89), compared to 0.53 (95% CI: 0.47-0.60) for CXR. Subgroup analyses indicated CT's superior performance in detecting homogeneous lesions (AUC of 0.97 for lesion-level) and heterogeneous lesions (AUC of 0.71 for lesion-level) as well as in identifying larger nodules (AUC of 0.98 for nodules > 8 mm). Conclusion and Relevance: The VIT platform validated the superior diagnostic accuracy of CT over CXR, especially for smaller nodules, underscoring its potential to replicate real clinical imaging trials. These findings advocate for the integration of virtual trials in the evaluation and improvement of imaging-based diagnostic tools.

Dose-Incorporated Deep Ensemble Learning for Improving Brain Metastasis Stereotactic Radiosurgery Outcome Prediction.

PURPOSE: To develop a novel deep ensemble learning model for accurate prediction of brain metastasis (BM) local control outcomes after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 114 brain metastases (BMs) from 82 patients were evaluated, including 26 BMs that developed biopsy-confirmed local failure post-SRS. The SRS spatial dose distribution (Dmap) of each BM was registered to the planning contrast-enhanced T1 (T1-CE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Axial slices of the Dmap, T1-CE, and planning target volume (PTV) segmentation (PTVseg) intersecting the BM center were extracted within a fixed field of view determined by the 60% isodose volume in Dmap. A spherical projection was implemented to transform planar image content onto a spherical surface using multiple projection centers, and the resultant T1-CE/Dmap/PTVseg projections were stacked as a 3-channel variable. Four Visual Geometry Group (VGG-19) deep encoders were used in an ensemble design, with each submodel using a different spherical projection formula as input for BM outcome prediction. In each submodel, clinical features after positional encoding were fused with VGG-19 deep features to generate logit results. The ensemble's outcome was synthesized from the 4 submodel results via logistic regression. In total, 10 model versions with random validation sample assignments were trained to study model robustness. Performance was compared with (1) a single VGG-19 encoder, (2) an ensemble with a T1-CE MRI as the sole image input after projections, and (3) an ensemble with the same image input design without clinical feature inclusion. RESULTS: The ensemble model achieved an excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC: 0.89 ± 0.02) with high sensitivity (0.82 ± 0.05), specificity (0.84 ± 0.11), and accuracy (0.84 ± 0.08) results. This outperformed the MRI-only VGG-19 encoder (sensitivity: 0.35 ± 0.01, AUCROC: 0.64 ± 0.08), the MRI-only deep ensemble (sensitivity: 0.60 ± 0.09, AUCROC: 0.68 ± 0.06), and the 3-channel ensemble without clinical feature fusion (sensitivity: 0.78 ± 0.08, AUCROC: 0.84 ± 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Facilitated by the spherical image projection method, a deep ensemble model incorporating Dmap and clinical variables demonstrated excellent performance in predicting BM post-SRS local failure. Our novel approach could improve other radiation therapy outcome models and warrants further evaluation.

Prognostic value of different discretization parameters in 18fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography radiomics of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

Purpose: We aim to interrogate the role of positron emission tomography (PET) image discretization parameters on the prognostic value of radiomic features in patients with oropharyngeal cancer. Approach: A prospective clinical trial (NCT01908504) enrolled patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (N=69; mixed HPV status) undergoing definitive radiotherapy and evaluated intra-treatment 18fluorodeoxyglucose PET as a potential imaging biomarker of early metabolic response. The primary tumor volume was manually segmented by a radiation oncologist on PET/CT images acquired two weeks into treatment (20 Gy). From this, 54 radiomic texture features were extracted. Two image discretization techniques-fixed bin number (FBN) and fixed bin size (FBS)-were considered to evaluate systematic changes in the bin number ({32, 64, 128, 256} gray levels) and bin size ({0.10, 0.15, 0.22, 0.25} bin-widths). For each discretization-specific radiomic feature space, an LASSO-regularized logistic regression model was independently trained to predict residual and/or recurrent disease. The model training was based on Monte Carlo cross-validation with a 20% testing hold-out, 50 permutations, and minor-class up-sampling to account for imbalanced outcomes data. Performance differences among the discretization-specific models were quantified via receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. A final parameter-optimized logistic regression model was developed by incorporating different settings parameterizations into the same model. Results: FBN outperformed FBS in predicting residual and/or recurrent disease. The four FBN models achieved AUC values of 0.63, 0.61, 0.65, and 0.62 for 32, 64, 128, and 256 gray levels, respectively. By contrast, the average AUC of the four FBS models was 0.53. The parameter-optimized model, comprising features joint entropy (FBN = 64) and information measure correlation 1 (FBN = 128), achieved an AUC of 0.70. Kaplan-Meier analyses identified these features to be associated with disease-free survival (p=0.0158 and p=0.0180, respectively; log-rank test). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the prognostic value of individual radiomic features may depend on feature-specific discretization parameter settings.

Radiomics on spatial-temporal manifolds via Fokker-Planck dynamics.

BACKGROUND: Delta radiomics is a high-throughput computational technique used to describe quantitative changes in serial, time-series imaging by considering the relative change in radiomic features of images extracted at two distinct time points. Recent work has demonstrated a lack of prognostic signal of radiomic features extracted using this technique. We hypothesize that this lack of signal is due to the fundamental assumptions made when extracting features via delta radiomics, and that other methods should be investigated. PURPOSE: The purpose of this work was to show a proof-of-concept of a new radiomics paradigm for sparse, time-series imaging data, where features are extracted from a spatial-temporal manifold modeling the time evolution between images, and to assess the prognostic value on patients with oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). METHODS: To accomplish this, we developed an algorithm to mathematically describe the relationship between two images acquired at time t = 0 $t = 0$ and t > 0 $t > 0$ . These images serve as boundary conditions of a partial differential equation describing the transition from one image to the other. To solve this equation, we propagate the position and momentum of each voxel according to Fokker-Planck dynamics (i.e., a technique common in statistical mechanics). This transformation is driven by an underlying potential force uniquely determined by the equilibrium image. The solution generates a spatial-temporal manifold (3 spatial dimensions + time) from which we define dynamic radiomic features. First, our approach was numerically verified by stochastically sampling dynamic Gaussian processes of monotonically decreasing noise. The transformation from high to low noise was compared between our Fokker-Planck estimation and simulated ground-truth. To demonstrate feasibility and clinical impact, we applied our approach to 18F-FDG-PET images to estimate early metabolic response of patients (n = 57) undergoing definitive (chemo)radiation for OPC. Images were acquired pre-treatment and 2-weeks intra-treatment (after 20 Gy). Dynamic radiomic features capturing changes in texture and morphology were then extracted. Patients were partitioned into two groups based on similar dynamic radiomic feature expression via k-means clustering and compared by Kaplan-Meier analyses with log-rank tests (p < 0.05). These results were compared to conventional delta radiomics to test the added value of our approach. RESULTS: Numerical results confirmed our technique can recover image noise characteristics given sparse input data as boundary conditions. Our technique was able to model tumor shrinkage and metabolic response. While no delta radiomics features proved prognostic, Kaplan-Meier analyses identified nine significant dynamic radiomic features. The most significant feature was Gray-Level-Size-Zone-Matrix gray-level variance (p = 0.011), which demonstrated prognostic improvement over its corresponding delta radiomic feature (p = 0.722). CONCLUSIONS: We developed, verified, and demonstrated the prognostic value of a novel, physics-based radiomics approach over conventional delta radiomics via data assimilation of quantitative imaging and differential equations.