Single World Intervention Graphs (SWIGs): A Practical Guide.

This article offers a comprehensive and user-friendly guide to visualizing causal theories using Single World Intervention Graphs (SWIGs). We begin with a discussion of the potential outcomes approach to causality and limitations of using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) under this framework. We then introduce SWIGs as a simple but powerful tool for integrating potential outcomes explicitly into causal diagrams. The article provides a step-by-step guide on transforming DAGs into SWIGs that includes practical insights into constructing SWIGs under various scenarios such as confounding, mediation, and sequential randomization. Highlighting the utility of SWIGs in practice, we illustrate their application in identifying the g-formula, showcasing their capacity to make causal estimands visually explicit. This article serves as a resource for epidemiologists and researchers interested in expanding their causal inference toolkit.

Maximizing Adherence and Minimizing Time to Antibiotics: A Multidisciplinary Institutional Trauma Bay Protocol for Single Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Open Fractures.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if a multidisciplinary institutional protocol can optimize the time to antibiotic (Abx) administration for open fractures (openFx) and improve compliance with the administration of Abx prophylaxis during trauma activation. DESIGN: Retrospective pre-post study design. SETTING: Single Level II Trauma Center. PATIENT SELECTION CRITERIA: All patients who triggered a trauma activation with suspected openFx and were treated according to the institutional single antibiotic regimen were eligible for inclusion. Patients were excluded if fractures did not involve the appendicular skeleton. Patients treated before implementation of a standardized institutional protocol where premixed IV bags of antibiotics were stocked in automated dispensing systems within ED trauma bays (January 2021-October 2022) were defined as the "pre" group and those treated following implementation the "post" group. OUTCOME MEASURES AND COMPARISONS: The primary outcome was time from trauma bay arrival to antibiotic aministration, measured in minutes, with comparisons made between preprotocol and postprotocol implementation. Secondary outcomes for comparison included rates (%) of time to Abx <60 minutes, allergic reactions, acute kidney injury, ototoxicity, surgical site infection, multi-drug-resistant organisms identified in blood or biopsy cultures in cases requiring reoperation, and Clostridium difficile infection in the gastrointestinal system, confirmed by stool test results, within 30 days. RESULTS: Twenty-four patients (mean age 39.5 ± 16.3 years) met the criteria after protocol implementation compared with 72 patients (mean age 34.3 ± 14.8 years) before implementation. Implementation of the institutional protocol resulted in a significant reduction in the time to Abx administration for openFx from 87.9 ± 104.6 minutes to 22.2 ± 12.8 minutes in the postprotocol group ( P < 0.001). In addition, only 53% in the preprotocol group received Abx within 60 minutes compared with 96% in postprotocol group ( P < 0.001). Post hoc power analysis revealed that the study was powered at 92% (effect size = 0.72) to detect a significant difference between the preprotocol and postprotocol groups. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence that a multidisciplinary institutional protocol for the administration of Abx prophylaxis can be an effective strategy for optimizing the time to Abx administration in cases of suspected openFx. This protocol may be implemented in other trauma centers to optimize time to Abx administration for openFx. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Synthetic Controls for Implementation Science: Opportunities for HIV Program Evaluation Using Routinely Collected Data.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: HIV service delivery programs are some of the largest funded public health programs in the world. Timely, efficient evaluation of these programs can be enhanced with methodologies designed to estimate the effects of policy. We propose using the synthetic control method (SCM) as an implementation science tool to evaluate these HIV programs. RECENT FINDINGS: SCM, introduced in econometrics, shows increasing utility across fields. Key benefits of this methodology over traditional design-based approaches for evaluation stem from directly approximating pre-intervention trends by weighting of candidate non-intervention units. We demonstrate SCM to evaluate the effectiveness of a public health intervention targeting HIV health facilities with high numbers of recent infections on trends in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) enrollment. This test case demonstrates SCM's feasibility for effectiveness evaluations of site-level HIV interventions. HIV programs collecting longitudinal, routine service delivery data for many facilities, with only some receiving a time-specified intervention, are well-suited for evaluation using SCM.

Hepatitis B virus infection (HBV) and HIV-HBV coinfection among men who have sex with men, transgender women, and genderqueer individuals in Harare and Bulawayo Zimbabwe, 2019.

Objectives: To measure HIV and Hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence and associated risk behaviors among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women/genderqueer individuals (TGW/GQ) in Zimbabwe. Methods: We conducted a biobehavioral survey using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) among adult MSM and TGW/GQ in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe in 2019. Participants completed a questionnaire and underwent testing for HIV and HBV. Results: Overall, 1,510 (Harare: 694, Bulawayo 816) participants were enrolled and consented to testing; 3.8 % (58) tested positive for HBV, 22.5 % (339) tested positive for HIV, and 2.2 % (33) tested positive for both HIV and HBV. HBV prevalence was higher among participants with HIV compared to HIV-negative participants (9.7 % vs. 2.1 %, p < 0.0001). Overall, HBV prevalence was not statistically different between MSM and TGW/GQ (3.7 % vs 4.5 %, p = 0.49) nor between Harare and Bulawayo (3.3 % vs 4.3 %, p = 0.33). Conclusions: Our survey demonstrates the prevalence of HBV among MSM and TGW/GQ is lower than other estimates of HBV among MSM in Africa but remains high among our survey population living with HIV highlighting the need to expand HBV testing and treatment services, especially among people with HIV in Zimbabwe.

Factors Associated with Having both Male and Female Recent Sexual Partnerships Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

To better understand male and female sexual partnerships among men who have sex with men (MSM), we used data from a 2019 biobehavioral survey among MSM in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe to conduct bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression to determine whether sociodemographic characteristics and HIV-related factors were associated with having both male and female sexual partnerships within the last 6 months. Of included MSM (N = 1143), 31% reported both male and female partnerships in the last 6 months. Being married/cohabiting (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 8.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.92-14.95) or separated/divorced/widowed (aOR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.24-3.08) vs. being single, and hazardous alcohol consumption (aOR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.19-2.09) were associated with higher odds of having both male and female recent partnerships. Being aged 35 + vs. 18-24 (aOR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.31-0.81), condomless receptive anal intercourse at last sex with the main male partner (aOR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.26-0.74), and positive HIV status (aOR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.31-0.67) were associated with lower odds of recent male and female partnerships. MSM in Harare who reported harassment/abuse (aOR = 3.16, 95% CI = 1.72-5.79) had higher odds of both male and female partnerships than MSM in Bulawayo reporting harassment/abuse. The prevalence of both male and female recent partnerships (31%) was lower among MSM in this survey than in other biobehavioral surveys of MSM in sub-Saharan Africa. Findings suggest that MSM with recent male and female partnerships compared to MSM with only male recent partners have lower odds of positive HIV status and participate in behaviors that lower HIV risk; however, the direction of these relationships cannot be determined due to the cross-sectional nature of the data. The findings also suggest a possible connection between experiences of stigma of MSM behavior and not having both male and female partnerships that warrants further exploration. Accessible, stigma-free HIV testing and education programming that considers the potential overlap between the MSM and general populations via both male and female partnerships and the associated behaviors could be a key component of HIV elimination in Zimbabwe.

Cross-Coupling of Amines via Photocatalytic Denitrogenation of In Situ Generated Diazenes.

A method for C(sp3)-C(sp3) cross-coupling of amines is described. Primary amines are converted to 1,2-dialkyldiazenes by treatment with O-nosylhydroxylamines in the presence of atmospheric oxygen. Denitrogenation of the diazenes with an iridium photocatalyst then forges the C-C bond. The substrate scope accommodates a broad latitude of functionality, including heteroaromatics and unprotected alcohols and acids.

A Clinician's Guide to Running Custom Machine-Learning Models in an Electronic Health Record Environment.

We recently brought an internally developed machine-learning model for predicting which patients in the emergency department would require hospital admission into the live electronic health record environment. Doing so involved navigating several engineering challenges that required the expertise of multiple parties across our institution. Our team of physician data scientists developed, validated, and implemented the model. We recognize a broad interest and need to adopt machine-learning models into clinical practice and seek to share our experience to enable other clinician-led initiatives. This Brief Report covers the entire model deployment process, starting once a team has trained and validated a model they wish to deploy in live clinical operations.

MPrEP+ study protocol: a prospective cohort study assessing the feasibility and acceptability of an HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) strategy for male clients of female sex workers in Kisumu, Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Male clients (MCs) are integral to sex work-driven HIV transmission dynamics as sexual partners of female sex worker (FSW). MCs contribute disproportionately to incident HIV globally and in sub-Saharan Africa, with 27% of new infections attributed to MCs of FSW and other partners of key populations. Gaps in coverage of HIV testing and prevention services for men, including MCs, are well-documented, yet research and innovative interventions to improve MC uptake of effective prevention services, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), are scarce. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: MPrEP+ is a cohort study designed to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a PrEP-focused HIV prevention strategy providing daily oral tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) in combination with three adherence self-management interventions: (1) use of a validated point-of-care urine drug-level assay with real-time feedback and tailored self-management counselling; (2) frequent HIV self-testing; and (3) weekly one-way text messaging. This package of interventions is being delivered to 120 MCs enrolled in the study in Kisumu, Kenya over a 6-month period. The primary outcome is PrEP adherence at 6 months as measured by PrEP drug levels. Bivariate and multivariable regression models will be used to identify predictors of PrEP adherence. We will also explore associations of sociodemographic characteristics and PrEP beliefs with PrEP adherence. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Columbia University Irving Medical Center Institutional Review Board and the Maseno University Ethical Review Committee. Study enrolment was initiated in November 2021 with participant follow-up planned through August 2022. Study results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Summaries and infographics of study findings will be developed and distributed to MC, FSW and stakeholders working in HIV prevention and support for people who sell and buy sex, including Kenya's Ministry of Health. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04898699; Registered on 24 May 2021.

HIV care cascade and associated factors among men who have sex with men, transgender women, and genderqueer individuals in Zimbabwe: findings from a biobehavioural survey using respondent-driven sampling.

BACKGROUND: Globally, men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender women, and genderqueer individuals are at greater risk for HIV than the general population although little data are available from these groups in Zimbabwe, a country with a national adult HIV prevalence of 12·9%. We aimed to examine progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets and factors associated with meeting the targets among a sample of MSM, transgender women, and genderqueer individuals in Zimbabwe. METHODS: In this cross-sectional survey in 2019, we used respondent-driven sampling to identify MSM, transgender women, and genderqueer individuals aged at least 18 years to participate in a biobehavioural survey in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe. Participants were eligible to participate if they were assigned male at birth; had engaged in anal or oral sex with a man in the past 12 months; resided in Harare or Bulawayo for at least 1 month; spoke English, Shona, or Ndebele; provided written informed consent; and were in possession of a valid recruitment coupon if applicable. Enrolled participants completed a questionnaire and underwent HIV testing, and off-site viral load testing was done on all HIV-positive samples. Unweighted bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of sociodemographic, behavioural, and other factors with HIV-positive status awareness among MSM, transgender women, and genderqueer individuals, and with viral load suppression among MSM. Analyses were done firstly using self-reported information and then by classifying those with a viral load of less than 200 copies per mL as being aware of their status and on treatment (viral load recategorisation). FINDINGS: Among MSM, 248 (21%; 95% CI 19-24) of 1176 tested positive for HIV. Of those who tested positive, based on self-report, 119 (48%; 95% CI 42-54) reported knowing their HIV status, of whom 112 (94%; 88-98) reported using antiretroviral therapy (ART), of whom 89 (79%; 71-87) had viral load suppression. Based on viral load recategorisation, 180 (73%; 67-78) of 248 MSM testing HIV positive reported knowing their HIV status, of whom 174 (97%; 93-99) reported using ART, of whom 151 (87%; 81-91) had viral load suppression. 92 (28%; 23-33) of 335 transgender women and genderqueer individuals tested positive for HIV. Based on self-reports from these individuals 34 (37%; 27-48) of 92 participants reported knowing their HIV status, of whom 31 (91%; 76-98) reported using ART, of whom 27 (87%; 70-96%) had viral load suppression. Based on viral load recategorisation of data from transgender women and genderqueer participants, 53 (58%; 47-58) of 92 reported awareness of their HIV status, of whom 50 (94%; 84-99) reported using ART, of whom 46 (92%; 81-98) had viral load suppression. HIV-positive MSM aged 18-24 years had lower odds of being aware of their status than those aged at least 35 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·34; 95% CI 0·13-0·92), as did HIV-positive MSM aged 25-34 years (aOR 0·26; 0·12-0·56). HIV-positive MSM aged 18-24 years also had a lower odds of having viral load suppression than those aged 35 years and older (aOR 0·35; 0·16-0·78), as did those aged 25-34 years (aOR 0·36; 0·19-0·67). No factors were significantly associated with awareness among transgender women and genderqueer individuals in multivariable models. INTERPRETATION: Our survey showed that HIV prevalence was high and the largest difference between our results and the 90-90-90 treatment targets was in HIV status awareness, indicating the need for improvements in engaging MSM (especially young MSM), transgender women, and genderqueer individuals in HIV testing services. FUNDING: US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Prevalence and psychosocial factors associated with self-injurious thoughts among people living with HIV presenting for HIV testing in Mozambique.

Self-injurious thoughts have been associated with psychiatric morbidity and suicide. Little is known about psychosocial factors associated with self-injurious thoughts among people newly diagnosed with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examined whether food insufficiency, mental health symptoms, or social support were associated with recent self-injurious thoughts among people newly diagnosed with HIV in Mozambique. The sample included 2001 PLWH aged ≥ 18 newly diagnosed with HIV at 10 health clinics in Mozambique between April 2013 and June 2015. Data were collected at time of HIV diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression modeled the association of social support, affective mental health symptom severity, somatic mental health symptom severity, and food insufficiency on recent self-injurious thoughts. Ten percent of respondents reported recent self-injurious thoughts, which was higher among women than men (11% vs 7%). In multivariable analyses, food insufficiency [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.7 (95% CI 1.3, 2.2)], and low [aORvs no = 4.8, 95% CI 1.7, 13.4) and moderate/high affective symptom severity [aORvs no = 8.7, 95% CI 2.8, 27.6) were associated with greater odds of self-injurious thoughts. Interventions to address self-injurious thoughts should consider accompanying psychosocial stressors. Longitudinal research to examine mechanisms through which psychosocial stressors are associated with self-injurious thoughts is warranted.

Operationalizing influenza vaccination in an urban safety-net emergency department.

INTRODUCTION: Influenza vaccination is a recommended tool in preventing influenza-related illnesses, medical visits, and hospitalizations. With many patients remaining unvaccinated each year, the Emergency Department (ED) represents a unique opportunity to provide vaccinations to patient not yet vaccinated. However, busy urban safety-net EDs maybe challenged to safely execute such a vaccination program. The aim of this quality improvement project was to assess influenza vaccination feasibility in the ED and improve influenza vaccination rates in our community. METHODS: The quality improvement work-group, comprised of ED physicians, nurses, and pharmacists, designed and implemented an influenza vaccination protocol that aligned with the ED workflow. The outcome measure was the total number of patients vaccinated per month and per influenza season. Process measures included the type of influenza vaccine administered and type of care area within ED. Balancing measures were also included. RESULTS: Following the initiative, a total of 337 patients received influenza vaccinations in the ED between September 1, 2018 and December 31, 2020 compared to none during the previous influenza season. With each influenza season, the number of vaccinated patients increased from 61 to 134 and 142, respectively. The average age of the patients was 48.23 ± 15.29, 52.89 ± 15.91, and 44.92 ± 18.97 years old. Most patients received the vaccination while roomed in the high acuity section of the adult ED. No adverse effects or automated dispensing cabinet stockouts were observed. CONCLUSION: Our structured program indicates that influenza vaccine administration to eligible patients is feasible in a busy urban safety-net ED. Piloting new and further developing existing ED-based influenza vaccination programs have the potential to significantly benefit public health.

Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Services: Findings from 11 Sub-Saharan African Countries.

BACKGROUND: Due to concerns about the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 pandemic on health services, we examined its effects on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) services in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Quarterly data (Q1, 10/2019-12/2019; Q2, 1/2020-3/2020; Q3, 4/2020-6/2020; Q4, 7/2020-9/2020) from 1059 health facilities in 11 countries were analyzed and categorized by stringency of pandemic measures. We conducted a difference-in-differences assessment of HIV service changes from Q1-Q2 to Q3-Q4 by higher vs lower stringency. RESULTS: There was a 3.3% decrease in the number HIV tested from Q2 to Q3 (572 845 to 553 780), with the number testing HIV-positive declining by 4.9% from Q2 to Q3. From Q3 to Q4, the number tested increased by 10.6% (612 646), with an increase of 8.8% (23 457) in the number testing HIV-positive with similar yield (3.8%). New antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations declined by 9.8% from Q2 to Q3 but increased in Q4 by 9.8%. Across all quarters, the number on ART increased (Q1, 419 028 to Q4, 476 010). The number receiving viral load (VL) testing in the prior 12 months increased (Q1, 255 290 to Q4, 312 869). No decrease was noted in VL suppression (Q1, 87.5% to Q4, 90.1%). HIV testing (P < .0001) and new ART initiations (P = .001) were inversely associated with stringency. CONCLUSIONS: After initial declines, rebound was brisk, with increases noted in the number HIV tested, newly initiated or currently on ART, VL testing, and VL suppression throughout the period, demonstrating HIV program resilience in the face of the COVID-19 crisis.

A randomized double-blind controlled trial of convalescent plasma in adults with severe COVID-19.

BACKGROUNDAlthough convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), data from randomized controlled trials that support its efficacy are limited.METHODSWe conducted a randomized, double-blind, controlled trial among adults hospitalized with severe and critical COVID-19 at 5 sites in New York City (USA) and Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Patients were randomized 2:1 to receive a single transfusion of either convalescent plasma or normal control plasma. The primary outcome was clinical status at 28 days following randomization, measured using an ordinal scale and analyzed using a proportional odds model in the intention-to-treat population.RESULTSOf 223 participants enrolled, 150 were randomized to receive convalescent plasma and 73 to receive normal control plasma. At 28 days, no significant improvement in the clinical scale was observed in participants randomized to convalescent plasma (OR 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-2.68, P = 0.180). However, 28-day mortality was significantly lower in participants randomized to convalescent plasma versus control plasma (19/150 [12.6%] versus 18/73 [24.6%], OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.22-0.91, P = 0.034). The median titer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody in infused convalescent plasma units was 1:160 (IQR 1:80-1:320). In a subset of nasopharyngeal swab samples from Brazil that underwent genomic sequencing, no evidence of neutralization-escape mutants was detected.CONCLUSIONIn adults hospitalized with severe COVID-19, use of convalescent plasma was not associated with significant improvement in day 28 clinical status. However, convalescent plasma was associated with significantly improved survival. A possible explanation is that survivors remained hospitalized at their baseline clinical status.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04359810.FUNDINGAmazon Foundation, Skoll Foundation.

Repair of Pulmonary Vascular Injury: A Take-Home Low-Fidelity Simulator.

We present a low-cost, simple simulation model of major vascular injury repair for cardiothoracic trainees. This model uses commercially available orthopedic elastic bands to allow repetitive practice of the skills necessary during these rare but critical clinical scenarios. Practicing core skills in the simulation setting will help residents be better prepared when the situation arises.

Optimizing Differentiated HIV Treatment Models in Urban Zimbabwe: Assessing Patient Preferences Using a Discrete Choice Experiment.

Differentiated service delivery holds great promise for streamlining the delivery of health services for HIV. This study used a discrete choice experiment to assess preferences for differentiated HIV treatment delivery model characteristics among 500 virally suppressed adults on antiretroviral therapy in Harare, Zimbabwe. Treatment model characteristics included location, consultation type, healthcare worker cadre, operation times, visit frequency and duration, and cost. A mixed effects logit model was used for parameter estimates to identify potential preference heterogeneity among participants, and interaction effects were estimated for sex and age as potential sources of divergence in preferences. Results indicated that participants preferred health facility-based services, less frequent visits, individual consultations, shorter waiting times, lower cost and, delivered by respectful and understanding healthcare workers. Some preference heterogeneity was found, particularly for location of service delivery and group vs. individual models; however, this was not fully explained by sex and age characteristics of participants. In urban areas, facility-based models, such as the Fast Track model requiring less frequent clinic visits, are likely to better align with patient preferences than some of the other community-based or group models that have been implemented. As Zimbabwe scales up differentiated treatment models for stable patients, a clear understanding of patient preferences can help in designing services that will ensure optimal utilization and improve the efficiency of service delivery.

RESUMEN: La entrega de servicios diferenciados representa una gran promesa para optimizar la prestación de servicios sanitarios para el VIH. Este estudio utilizó un experimento de elecciones discretas para evaluar las preferencias en cuanto a las características de los modelos diferenciados de prestación de tratamiento para el VIH entre 500 adultos con supresión viral bajo tratamiento antirretroviral en Harare, Zimbabue. Las características de los modelos de tratamientos incluyeron el lugar, el tipo de consulta, la estructura en la que estaba inserto el trabajador sanitario, los tiempos operativos, la frecuencia y duración de las visitas y los costos. Se utilizó un modelo de probabilidad de efectos mixtos para las estimaciones de los parámetros para identificar una posible heterogeneidad en las preferencias entre los participantes, y se estimaron los efectos de las interacciones por el sexo y la edad como fuentes potenciales de diferencia en las preferencias. Los resultados indicaron que los participantes preferían servicios basados en centros de salud, visitas menos frecuentes, consultas individuales, tiempos de espera más cortos y menores costos, proporcionados por trabajadores sanitarios respetuosos y comprensivos. Se hallaron algunas heterogeneidades en las preferencias, particularmente para el lugar de la prestación del servicio y para los modelos grupales frente a individuales; sin embargo, esto no se explicó totalmente por las características de sexo y edad de los participantes. En áreas urbanas, los modelos basados en los centros, como el modelo de atención rápida (Fast Track), que requieren visitas menos frecuentes a la clínica, probablemente concuerden mejor con las preferencias de los pacientes que los otros modelos grupales o comunitarios que se han propuesto. A medida que en Zimbabue se amplíen los modelos de tratamiento diferenciado para los pacientes estables, un claro conocimiento de las preferencias de los pacientes puede ayudar a diseñar servicios que garantizarán una utilización óptima y mejorarán la eficiencia de la prestación de servicios.

Differential COVID-19 case positivity in New York City neighborhoods: Socioeconomic factors and mobility.

BACKGROUND: New York City (NYC) has been one of the hotspots of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. By the end of April 2020, close to 165 000 cases and 13 000 deaths were reported in the city with considerable variability across the city's ZIP codes. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we examine: (a) the extent to which the variability in ZIP code-level case positivity can be explained by aggregate markers of socioeconomic status (SES) and daily change in mobility; and (b) the extent to which daily change in mobility independently predicts case positivity. METHODS: COVID-19 case positivity by ZIP code was modeled using multivariable linear regression with generalized estimating equations to account for within-ZIP clustering. Daily case positivity was obtained from NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and measures of SES were based on data from the American Community Survey. Changes in human mobility were estimated using anonymized aggregated mobile phone location systems. RESULTS: Our analysis indicates that the socioeconomic markers considered together explained 56% of the variability in case positivity through April 1 and their explanatory power decreased to 18% by April 30. Changes in mobility during this time period are not likely to be acting as a mediator of the relationship between ZIP-level SES and case positivity. During the middle of April, increases in mobility were independently associated with decreased case positivity. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these findings present evidence that heterogeneity in COVID-19 case positivity during NYC's spring outbreak was largely driven by residents' SES.

Differential COVID-19 case positivity in New York City neighborhoods: socioeconomic factors and mobility.

New York City has been one of the hotspots of the COVID-19 pandemic and during the first two months of the outbreak considerable variability in case positivity was observed across the city's ZIP codes. In this study, we examined: a) the extent to which the variability in ZIP code level cases can be explained by aggregate markers of socioeconomic status and daily change in mobility; and b) the extent to which daily change in mobility independently predicts case positivity. Our analysis indicates that the markers considered together explained 56% of the variability in case positivity through April 1 and their explanatory power decreased to 18% by April 30. Our analysis also indicates that changes in mobility during this time period are not likely to be acting as a mediator of the relationship between ZIP-level SES and case positivity. During the middle of April, increases in mobility were independently associated with decreased case positivity. Together, these findings present evidence that heterogeneity in COVID-19 case positivity in New York City is largely driven by neighborhood socioeconomic status.

Household Decision-Making and HIV Care Continuum Outcomes Among Women Living with HIV in Mozambique.

Gender inequality has been associated with HIV infection among women. Less is known about the relationship between gender inequality and HIV care continuum outcomes. This study assessed whether household decision-making power (DMP), one component of gender inequality, was associated with linkage to HIV care, antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, or retention in care among women living with HIV in Mozambique. The sample included 600 women ≥18 years of age newly diagnosed with HIV in Mozambique. Data were collected between April 2013 and June 2016. DMP was assessed with three questions about participation in decisions regarding: major household decisions, routine household decisions, and visits to family. Women who did not contribute to decision making in any domain were categorized as having low DMP. HIV care information was obtained from electronic medical records. Multivariable log-Poisson regression analyses were conducted to assess the relationship between DMP and HIV care continuum outcomes. Almost half (49%) of participants reported medium DMP, followed by high (39%) and low DMP (12%). In multivariable regression analyses, when compared with respondents with medium DMP, those with low DMP had a lower likelihood of retention in care 12 months after diagnosis [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 0.69 (95% CI 0.49-0.98)]. There was no significant relationship between low DMP and linkage to HIV care or ART initiation. High DMP was not significantly associated with HIV outcomes assessed. Women who report low DMP may face barriers to long-term engagement in HIV care. Interventions to improve retention in care among women should consider the role of household decision making and gender inequality.

Expansion and scale-up of HIV care and treatment services in four countries over ten years.

BACKGROUND: Scale-up and expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV (PLHIV) have been a global priority for more than 15 years. METHODS: We describe PLHIV at enrollment in care and ART initiation in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania from 2005-2014 and report on enrollment location, CD4 count and loss to follow-up (LTF), death, and combined attrition (LTF and death) pre- and post-ART initiation over time. Pre-ART outcomes were estimated using competing risk and post-ART using Kaplan-Meier estimators; LTF defined as no visit within six months pre-ART and 12 months after ART start. RESULTS: From 2005-2014, 884,328 PLHIV enrolled in care at 350 health facilities, median age was 32.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] 26.0-42.0), and majority were female (66.5%). The proportion of PLHIV enrolled at primary and rural facilities increased from 12.9% and 15.3% in 2005-2006 to 43.5% and 41.7% in 2013-2014 (p<0.0001). Median CD4+ cell count at enrollment increased from 171 cell/mm3 in 2005-2006 (IQR 71-339) to 289 cell/mm3 in 2013-2014 (IQR 133-485) (p<0.0001). A total of 460,758 (57.4%) PLHIV initiated treatment. Cumulative risk of LTF for PLHIV prior to ART initiation 12 months after enrollment was 33.5% (95%CI 33.36-33.58) and 21.98% (95%CI 21.9-22.1) after ART initiation. Pregnant women and the youngest PLHIV group had the highest attrition after ART initiation, at 24 months 40.8% (95%CI 40.1-41.6) of pregnant women and 47.4% (95%CI 46.4-48.4) of PLHIV 15-19 years were not retained. Attrition at 12 months after enrollment among PLHIV regardless of ART status was 38.5% (95%CI 38.4-38.6). CONCLUSION: Over 10 years of HIV scale-up in four sub-Saharan African countries, close to a million PLHIV were enrolled in care increasingly at rural and primary facilities with increasing CD4 count. Loss to follow-up from HIV care remains alarmingly high, particularly among pregnant women and younger PLHIV.

Patterns and Predictors of HIV Status Disclosure in the 12 Months After Diagnosis in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: HIV disclosure benefits people living with HIV, their partners, and HIV programs. However, data on the prevalence of disclosure and associated correlates have come largely from patients already in HIV care, potentially overestimating disclosure rates and precluding examination of the impact of disclosure on HIV care outcomes. SETTING: We used data from an implementation study conducted in Maputo City and Inhambane Province, Mozambique. Adults were enrolled at HIV testing clinics after diagnosis and traced in the community 1 and 12 months later when they reported on disclosure and other outcomes. METHODS: We examined patterns of participants' disclosure to their social networks (N = 1573) and sexual partners (N = 1024) at both follow-up assessments and used relative risk regression to identify correlates of nondisclosure. RESULTS: Disclosure to one's social network and sexual partners was reported by 77.8% and 57.7% of participants, respectively, at 1 month and 92.9% and 72.4% of participants, respectively, at 12 months. At both time points, living in Inhambane Province, being single or not living with a partner, having high levels of anticipated stigma, and not initiating HIV treatment were associated with increased risks of nondisclosure to social networks. Nondisclosure to sexual partners at both follow-up assessments was associated with being women, living in Inhambane Province and in a household without other people living with HIV, and reporting that posttest counseling addressed disclosure. CONCLUSIONS: Although reported disclosure to social networks was high, disclosure to sexual partners was suboptimal. Effective and acceptable approaches to support partner disclosure, particularly for women, are needed.