Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration of southern and northern white spruce seed sources tested along a regional climatic gradient indicates limited potential to cope with temperature warming.

Background and Aims: Knowledge of thermal acclimation of physiological processes of boreal tree species is necessary to determine their ability to adapt to predicted global warming and reduce the uncertainty around the anticipated feedbacks of forest ecosystems and global carbon cycle to climate change. The objective of this work was to examine the extent of thermal acclimation of net photosynthesis (An) and dark respiration (Rd) of two distant white spruce (Picea glauca) seed sources (from south and north of the commerial forest zone in Québec) in response to latitudinal and seasonal variations in growing conditions. Methods: The temperature responses of An, its biochemical and biophysical limitations, and Rd were measured in 1-year-old needles of seedlings from the seed sources growing in eight forest plantations along a regional thermal gradient of 5.5 °C in Québec, Canada. Key Results: The average optimum temperature (Topt) for An was 19 ± 1.2 °C and was similar among seed sources and plantation sites along the thermal gradient. Net photosynthesis at Topt (Aopt) varied significantly among plantation sites and was quadratically related to the mean July temperature (MJT) of plantation sites. Topt for mesophyll conductance, maximum electron transport rate and maximum rate of carboxylation were 28, 22 and 30 °C, respectively. Basal respiration rate (Rd at 10 °C) was linearly and negatively associated with MJT. Q10 of Rd (the rate of change in Rd with a 10 °C increase in temperature) did not show any significant relationship with MJT and averaged 1.5 ± 0.1. The two seed sources were similar in their thermal responses to latitudinal and seasonal variations in growing conditions. Conclusions: The results showed moderate thermal acclimation of respiration and no evidence for thermal acclimation of photosynthesis or local genetic adaptation for traits related to thermal acclimation. Therefore, growth of local white spruces may decline in future climates.

Morpho-Physiological Variation of White Spruce Seedlings from Various Seed Sources and Implications for Deployment under Climate Change.

Because of changes in climatic conditions, tree seeds originating from breeding programs may no longer be suited to sites where they are currently sent. As a consequence, new seed zones may have to be delineated. Assisted migration consists of transferring seed sources that match the future climatic conditions to which they are currently adapted. It represents a strategy that could be used to mitigate the potential negative consequences of climate change on forest productivity. Decisions with regard to the choice of the most appropriate seed sources have to rely on appropriate knowledge of morpho-physiological responses of trees. To meet this goal, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) seedlings from eight seed orchards were evaluated during two years in a forest nursery, and at the end of the first growing season on three plantation sites located in different bioclimatic domains in Quebec. The morpho-physiological responses obtained at the end of the second growing season (2+0) in the nursery made it possible to cluster the orchards into three distinct groups. Modeling growth curves of these different groups showed that the height growth of seedlings from the second-generation and southern first-generation seed orchards was significantly higher than that of those from other orchards, by at least 6%. A multiple regression model with three climatic variables (average growing season temperature, average July temperature, length of the growing season) showed that the final height of seedlings (2+0) from the first-generation seed orchards was significantly related to the local climatic conditions at the orchard sites of origin where parental trees from surrounding natural populations were sampled to provide grafts for orchard establishment. Seedling height growth was significantly affected by both seed source origins and planting sites, but the relative ranking of the different seed sources was maintained regardless of reforestation site. This knowledge could be used, in conjunction with transfer models, to refine operational seed transfer rules and select the most suitable sites in an assisted migration strategy.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Aboveground carbon in Quebec forests: stock quantification at the provincial scale and assessment of temperature, precipitation and edaphic properties effects on the potential stand-level stocking.

Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km(2) of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha(-1), which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec's managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041-2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec's forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests.