Combined pre-treatment and middle-treatment Epstein-Barr virus DNA load contributes to prognostication and treatment modification in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients.

Objective: To investigate whether pre-treatment and middle-treatment plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA loads are useful predictors of prognosis and indicators of therapy modification in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients undergoing radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Methods: Plasma EBV DNA load was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction before treatment (pre-DNA) and during the second cycle of DDP (mid-DNA). The primary endpoint was 5-year progression-free survival (PFS). Results: A total of 775 NPC patients treated with CCRT were included. In total, 553 patients with pre-DNA <4000 copies/mL and 222 with ⩾4000 copies/mL. A total of 559 patients had mid-DNA undetectable and 216 had detectable. Multivariate analysis showed that pre- and mid-DNA were independent prognostic predictors of PFS [hazard ratio (HR), 2.035; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.406-2.944; p < 0.001; HR, 1.597; 95% CI, 1.101-2.316; p = 0.014]. The area under the curve of the combination of pre-DNA and mid-DNA for 5-year PFS was higher than that of pre-DNA, mid-DNA, and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage (0.679 versus 0.622, 0.608, 0.601). In the low-risk group (pre-DNA <4000 copies/mL and undetectable mid-DNA), patients receiving ⩽200 mg/m2 showed similar efficacy as those receiving >200 mg/m2 cumulative cisplatin dose (CCD) but were associated with fewer all-grade late toxicities. However, in the high-risk group (pre-DNA ⩾4000 copies/mL or detectable mid-DNA), patients receiving >200 mg/m2 CCD showed a higher 5-year PFS (73.1% versus 58.6%, p = 0.027) and locoregional relapse-free survival (88.5% versus 76.1%, p = 0.028) than those receiving ⩽200 mg/m2 CCD. Conclusion: The combination of pre-DNA and mid-DNA could be particularly useful for guiding risk stratification and early treatment modification for NPC treated with CCRT. A total of 200 mg/m2 cisplatin seemed to be the optimal dose for the low-risk patients, while >200 mg/m2 cisplatin may be adequate to achieve satisfactory survival outcomes in the high-risk group.

A new prognostic model for predicting outcomes of patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving subsequent line (≥2 lines) anti-programmed death-1 monotherapy.

OBJECTIVES: About 17.7-34.0 % of patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (RM-NPC) responded well to anti-PD-1 monotherapy. We sought to establish a nomogram to estimate the progression-free survival (PFS) of RM-NPC patients receiving subsequent-line anti-PD-1 monotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cohort study investigated consecutive RM-NPC patients undergoing anti-PD-1 monotherapy. A nomogram was developed in the training cohort (n = 161), using a Cox multivariate model with backward stepwise inclusion, and was validated in the validation cohort (n = 69). Its predictive accuracy was assessed using a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The primary endpoint was PFS. Secondary endpoints included the objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Liver metastasis, albumin, lactate dehydrogenase, monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, and plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA were used to develop a nomogram that could separate patients into favourable- and unfavourable-prognosis groups. The C-index in the training and validation cohort were 0.70 and 0.68, respectively, which was confirmed by calibration curves. Median PFS (mPFS) was lower for the unfavourable-prognosis than for the favourable-prognosis group (1.80 vs 4.93; hazard ratio 2.49 [95 % confidence interval: 1.78-3.49]; p < 0.001), across all subgroups. OS exhibited the same pattern. The ORR and DCR were markedly lower in the unfavourable-prognosis than in the favourable-prognosis group. All results were confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Our model is a reliable prognostic indicator of PFS in RM-NPC patients undergoing anti-PD-1 monotherapy, allowing robust estimation of the immunotherapy benefit an individual might derive.

Can the prognosis of individual patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma be predicted using a routine blood test at admission?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We sought to determine the prognostic value of a pre-treatment peripheral blood signature and the peripheral blood signature-based nomogram for patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively collected 21 peripheral blood indicators from patients with NPC between 2004 and 2015. Data were randomly divided into a training and a validation set (ratio: 6:4). The peripheral blood signature was constructed based on candidate biomarkers using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression model. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to identify the independent risk factors of overall survival to build the nomogram. The predictive value of the peripheral blood nomogram was evaluated using time-dependent area under the curve, decision curve analysis, and calibration curve. RESULTS: In total, 6668 patients were enrolled with 4000 and 2668 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Four peripheral blood indicators, (white blood cell count, lymphocyte percentage, haemoglobin, and mean platelet volume), were included to construct the peripheral blood signature. Patients were divided into low- and high-risk groups using an optimal cut-off value of - 1.71142. Patients in the high-risk group had significantly lower overall, distant metastasis-free, and progression-free survival than patients in the low-risk group in both cohorts (P < 0.05). We constructed and validated a peripheral blood signature-based nomogram in combination with five vital clinical characteristics, (age, sex, tumour stage, nodal stage, and pre-treatment Epstein-Barr virus DNA), which showed favourable performance. CONCLUSION: Patients with NPC with different outcomes could be distinguished based on their peripheral blood signature score; the proposed peripheral blood signature-based nomogram offers individualised risk estimation.

Modeling the risk of radiation pneumonitis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: To develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who received definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy. METHODS: Clinical factors, dose-volume histogram parameters, and pulmonary function parameters were collected from 402 ESCC patients between 2010 and 2017, including 321 patients in the primary cohort and 81 in the validation cohort. The end-point was the occurrence of symptomatic RP (grade ≥ 2) within the first 12 months after radiotherapy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to evaluate the predictive value of each factor for RP. A prediction model was generated in the primary cohort, which was internally validated to assess its performance. RESULTS: In the primary cohort, 31 patients (9.7%) experienced symptomatic RP. Based on logistic regression model, patients with larger planning target volumes (PTVs) or higher lung V20 had a higher predictive risk of RP, whereas the overall risk was substantially higher for three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) than intensity-modulated radiotherapy. On multivariate analysis, independent predictive factors for RP were smoking history (P = 0.035), radiotherapy modality (P < 0.001), PTV (P = 0.039), and lung V20 (P < 0.001), which were incorporated into the nomogram. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram in the primary and validation cohorts were 0.772 and 0.900, respectively, which were superior to each predictor alone. CONCLUSIONS: Non-smoking status, 3DCRT, lung V20 (> 27.5%), and PTV (≥ 713.0 cc) were significantly associated with a higher risk of RP. A nomogram was built with satisfactory prediction ability.

Propensity score-based comparison of survival and radiation pneumonitis after definitive chemoradiation for esophageal cancer: Intensity-modulated radiotherapy versus three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy.

PURPOSE: To compare survival outcomes and radiation pneumonitis (RP) between intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) who underwent definitive chemoradiation therapy (CRT). METHODS: Clinical characteristics and dose-volume histogram parameters were collected for 388 EC patients who received definitive CRT with either IMRT (n = 297) or 3DCRT (n = 91) from 2010 through 2017. Dosimetric parameters, survival end-points, and symptomatic RP (grade ≥2) were compared between groups. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance potential confounding factors. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to identify predictors of RP. RESULTS: Compared with 3DCRT, IMRT was significantly associated with better overall survival (OS; P = 0.001), progression-free survival (PFS; P = 0.008), and distant metastasis-free survival (P = 0.011), but not with locoregional failure-free survival (P = 0.721). Moreover, IMRT demonstrated a remarkably lower risk of RP than 3DCRT (5.4% vs 23.1%, P < 0.001). PSM analysis further confirmed the clinical benefit of IMRT. In the matched cohort, radiation modality was independently correlated with OS and PFS. On multivariate analysis, smoking history (odds ratio [OR]: 4.225, P = 0.002), primary tumor length (OR: 2.764, P = 0.049), radiation modality (OR: 10.760, P < 0.001), planning target volume (OR: 1.004, P < 0.001), and lung V20 (OR: 1.286, P = 0.002) were found to be significant predictors of RP. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with 3DCRT, IMRT was associated with more favorable survival and a reduced risk of RP after definitive CRT, supporting the routine use of IMRT for EC.