Genomic pedigree reconstruction identifies predictors of mating and reproductive success in an invasive vertebrate.

The persistence of an invasive species is influenced by its reproductive ecology, and a successful control program must operate on this premise. However, the reproductive ecology of invasive species may be enigmatic due to factors that also limit their management, such as cryptic coloration and behavior. We explored the mating and reproductive ecology of the invasive Brown Treesnake (BTS: Boiga irregularis) by reconstructing a multigenerational genomic pedigree based on 654 single nucleotide polymorphisms for a geographically closed population established in 2004 on Guam (N = 426). The pedigree allowed annual estimates of individual mating and reproductive success to be inferred for snakes in the study population over a 14-year period. We then employed generalized linear mixed models to gauge how well phenotypic and genomic data could predict sex-specific annual mating and reproductive success. Average snout-vent length (SVL), average body condition index (BCI), and trappability were significantly related to annual mating success for males, with average SVL also related to annual mating success for females. Male and female annual reproductive success was positively affected by SVL, BCI, and trappability. Surprisingly, the degree to which individuals were inbred had no effect on annual mating or reproductive success. When juxtaposed with current control methods, these results indicate that baited traps, a common interdiction tool, may target fecund BTS in some regards but not others. Our study emphasizes the importance of reproductive ecology as a focus for improving BTS control and promotes genomic pedigree reconstruction for such an endeavor in this invasive species and others.

Inferring the absence of an incipient population during a rapid response for an invasive species.

Successful eradication of invasives is facilitated by early detection and prompt onset of control. However, realizing or verifying that a colonization has occurred is difficult for cryptic species especially at low population densities. Responding to the capture or unconfirmed sighting of a cryptic invasive species, and the associated effort to determine if it indicates an incipient (small, localized) population or merely a lone colonizer, is costly and cannot continue indefinitely. However, insufficient detection effort risks erroneously concluding the species is not present, allowing the population to increase in size and expand its range. Evidence for an incipient population requires detection of ≥1 individual; its absence, on the other hand, must be inferred probabilistically. We use an actual rapid response incident and species-specific detection estimates tied to a known density to calculate the amount of effort (with non-sequential detections) necessary to assert, with a pre-defined confidence, that invasive brown treesnakes are absent from the search area under a wide range of hypothetical population densities. We illustrate that the amount of effort necessary to declare that a species is absent is substantial and increases with decreased individual detection probability, decreased density, and increased level of desired confidence about its absence. Such survey investment would be justified where the cost savings due to early detection are large. Our Poisson-based model application will allow managers to make informed decisions about how long to continue detection efforts, should no additional detections occur, and suggests that effort to do so is significantly higher than previously thought. While our model application informs how long to search to infer absence of an incipient population of brown treesnakes, the approach is sufficiently general to apply to other invasive species if density-dependent detection estimates are known or reliable surrogate estimates are available.

Growth or reproduction? Resource allocation by female frogs Rana temporaria.

The decision how to allocate marginal resources to reproduction and growth can have important effects on associated life-history parameters as well as on population dynamics. In addition to showing variation among individuals in a population, such allocation rules may be either condition-dependent or fixed in different individuals. While many studies on anuran amphibians have focused on egg numbers and egg sizes in females of different sizes, virtually no data exist on the relative allocation of marginal resources to growth versus reproduction. In the laboratory, we therefore offered female common frogs ( Rana temporaria) low versus high food rations for a full reproductive cycle, and monitored their growth and later reproductive investment (egg number and egg size the following breeding season). Feeding rates had an effect both on female growth and on egg number and size. There was no trade-off found between the two forms of investment. A flexible allocation rule could not be supported as there was no significant effect of feeding rate on the relative allocation of resources to growth versus reproduction.

Plasticity or fixed adaptive traits? Strategies for predation avoidance in Rana arvalis tadpoles.

Tadpoles of Rana arvalis originating from seven island populations were tested for responses to non-lethal predator presence. In general, tadpole growth was reduced and the relative tail depth was increased at predator presence. There was no effect of predator presence on the predicted size at metamorphosis. The differentiation rate, translating as length of the larval period, was lower at predator presence, but this seems to be merely an effect of the reduced growth. Although populations differed with respect to growth, relative tail length, relative tail depth, differentiation rate and predicted size at metamorphosis, no obvious differences were found in their responses to predator presence. Data on predator occurrences in the source ponds show that tadpoles originating from ponds with a high predation pressure have a higher differentiation rate, i.e. they will metamorphose at an earlier date than those from "safe" ponds (if raised under the same conditions). Moreover, they are also predicted to metamorphose at a smaller size, which is in accordance with theoretical models. Despite the fact that populations differed in growth, no correlation was found between growth and predation risk in the source ponds.