Snakebite victim profiles and treatment-seeking behaviors in two regions of Kenya: results from a health demographic surveillance system.

INTRODUCTION: Snakebites are a major cause of permanent injury and death among poor, rural populations in developing countries, including those in East Africa. This research characterizes snakebite incidence, risk factors, and subsequent health-seeking behaviors in two regions of Kenya using a mixed methods approach. METHODS: As a part of regular activities of a health demographic surveillance system, household-level survey on snakebite incidence was conducted in two areas of Kenya: Kwale along the Kenyan Coast and Mbita on Lake Victoria. If someone in the home was reported to have been bitten in the 5 years previous to the visit, a survey instrument was administered. The survey gathered contextual information on the bite, treatment-seeking behavior and clinical manifestations. To obtain deeper, contextual information, respondents were also asked to narrate the bite incident, subsequent behavior and outcomes. RESULTS: 8775 and 9206 households were surveyed in Kwale and Mbita, respectively. Out of these, 453 (5.17%) and 92 (1.00%) households reported that at least one person had been bitten by a snake in the past 5 years. Deaths from snakebites were rare (4.04%), but patterns of treatment seeking varied. Treatment at formal care facilities were sought for 50.8% and at traditional healers for 53.3%. 18.4% sought treatment from both sources. Victims who delayed receiving treatment from a formal facility were more likely to have consulted a traditional healer (OR 8.8995% CI [3.83, 20.64]). Delays in treatment seeking were associated with significantly increased odds of having a severe outcome, including death, paralysis or loss of consciousness (OR 3.47 95% CI [1.56; 7.70]). CONCLUSION: Snakebite incidence and outcomes vary by region in Kenya, and treatment-seeking behaviors are complex. Work needs to be done to better characterize the spatial distribution of snakebite incidence in Kenya and efforts need to be made to ensure that victims have sufficient access to effective treatments to prevent death and serious injury.

Ambient air pollution and non-communicable respiratory illness in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of the literature.

INTRODUCTION: Aerosol pollutants are known to raise the risk of development of non-communicable respiratory diseases (NCRDs) such as asthma, chronic bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and allergic rhinitis. Sub-Saharan Africa's rapid pace of urbanization, economic expansion, and population growth raise concerns of increasing incidence of NCRDs. This research characterizes the state of research on pollution and NCRDs in the 46 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This research systematically reviewed the literature on studies of asthma; chronic bronchitis; allergic rhinitis; and air pollutants such as particulate matter, ozone, NOx, and sulfuric oxide. METHODS: We searched three major databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) using the key words "asthma", "chronic bronchitis", "allergic rhinitis", and "COPD" with "carbon monoxide (CO)", "sulfuric oxide (SO)", "ozone (O3)", "nitrogen dioxide (NO2)", and "particulate matter (PM)", restricting the search to the 46 countries that comprise SSA. Only papers published in scholarly journals with a defined health outcome in individuals and which tested associations with explicitly measured or modelled air exposures were considered for inclusion. All candidate papers were entered into a database for review. RESULTS: We found a total of 362 unique research papers in the initial search of the three databases. Among these, 14 met the inclusion criteria. These papers comprised studies from just five countries. Nine papers were from South Africa; two from Malawi; and one each from Ghana, Namibia, and Nigeria. Most studies were cross-sectional. Exposures to ambient air pollutants were measured using spectrometry and chromatography. Some studies created composite measures of air pollution using a range of data layers. NCRD outcomes were measured by self-reported health status and measures of lung function (spirometry). Populations of interest were primarily schoolchildren, though a few studies focused on secondary school students and adults. CONCLUSIONS: The paucity of research on NCRDs and ambient air pollutant exposures is pronounced within the African continent. While capacity to measure air quality in SSA is high, studies targeting NCRDs should work to draw attention to questions of outdoor air pollution and health. As the climate changes and SSA economies expand and countries urbanize, these questions will become increasingly important.

Long-Term PM2.5 Exposure Is Associated with Symptoms of Acute Respiratory Infections among Children under Five Years of Age in Kenya, 2014.

Introduction: Short-term exposures to air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM) have been associated with increased risk for symptoms of acute respiratory infections (ARIs). Less well understood is how long-term exposures to fine PM (PM2.5) might increase risk of ARIs and their symptoms. This research uses georeferenced Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data from Kenya (2014) along with a remote sensing based raster of PM2.5 concentrations to test associations between PM2.5 exposure and ARI symptoms in children for up to 12 monthly lags. Methods: Predicted PM2.5 concentrations were extracted from raster of monthly averages for latitude/longitude locations of survey clusters. These data and other environmental and demographic data were used in a logistic regression model of ARI symptoms within a distributed lag nonlinear modeling framework (DLNM) to test lag associations of PM2.5 exposure with binary presence/absence of ARI symptoms in the previous two weeks. Results: Out of 7036 children under five for whom data were available, 46.8% reported ARI symptoms in the previous two weeks. Exposure to PM2.5 within the same month and as an average for the previous 12 months was 18.31 and 22.1 µg/m3, respectively, far in excess of guidelines set by the World Health Organization. One-year average PM2.5 exposure was higher for children who experienced ARI symptoms compared with children who did not (22.4 vs. 21.8 µg/m3, p < 0.0001.) Logistic regression models using the DLNM framework indicated that while PM exposure was not significantly associated with ARI symptoms for early lags, exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5 (90th percentile) was associated with elevated odds for ARI symptoms along a gradient of lag exposure time even when controlling for age, sex, types of cooking fuels, and precipitation. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to high concentrations of PM2.5 may increase risk for acute respiratory problems in small children. However, more work should be carried out to increase capacity to accurately measure air pollutants in emerging economies such as Kenya.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on temporal patterns of mental health and substance abuse related mortality in Michigan: An interrupted time series analysis.

Background: The emergence of SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) had wide impacts to health and mortality and prompted unprecedented containment efforts. The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting responses on mental health and substance abuse related mortality are unknown. Methods: We obtained records for deaths from suicide, alcohol related liver failure, and overdose from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) for 2006 to 2020. We compared mortality within sex, age, marital, racial and urban/rural groups using basic statistical methods. We compared standardized mean daily mortality incidence before and after the onset of the pandemic using t-tests. We used an interrupted time series approach, using generalized additive Poisson regression models with smoothed components for time to assess differences in mortality trends before and after the onset of the pandemic within demographic groups. Findings: There were 19,365 suicides, 8,790 deaths from alcohol related liver failure, and 21,778 fatal drug overdoses. Compared with 2019, suicides in 2020 declined by 17.6%, overdose mortality declined by 22.5%-while alcohol deaths increased by 12.4%. Crude comparisons suggested that there were significant declines in suicides for white people, people 18 to 65 and increases for rural decedents, overdoses increased for Black people, females and married/widowed people, and alcohol mortality increased for nearly all groups. ITS models, however, suggested increased suicide mortality for rural residents, significantly increased alcohol related mortality for people ≥65 and increased overdose mortality in men. Interpretation: The onset of the pandemic was associated with mixed patterns of mortality between suicide, alcohol and overdose deaths. Patterns varied within demographic groups, suggesting that impacts varied among different groups, particularly racial and marital groups. Funding: This work was supported by the United States National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences [K99/R00ES026198] and their Michigan Center on Lifestage Environmental Exposures and Disease [grant number P30ES017885]; and the Institute for Global Biological Change at the University of Michigan.

Indoor apparent temperature, cognition, and daytime sleepiness among low-income adults in a temperate climate.

The burden of temperature-associated mortality and hospital visits is significant, but temperature's effects on non-emergency health outcomes is less clear. This burden is potentially greater in low-income households unable to afford efficient heating and cooling. We examined short-term associations between indoor temperatures and cognitive function and daytime sleepiness in low-income residents of Detroit, Michigan. Apparent temperature (AT, based on temperature and humidity) was recorded hourly in 34 participant homes between July 2019-March 2020. Between July-October 2019, 18 participants were administered word list immediate (WLL) and delayed (WLD) recall tests (10-point scales) and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (24-point scale) 2-4 times. We applied longitudinal models with nonlinear distributed lags of temperature up to 7 days prior to testing. Indoor temperatures ranged 8-34°C overall and 15-34°C on survey days. We observed a 0.4 (95% CI: 0.0, 0.7) point increase in WLL and 0.4 (95% CI: 0.0, 0.9) point increase in WLD scores per 2°C increase in AT. Results suggested decreasing sleepiness scores with decreasing nighttime AT below 22°C. Low-income Detroit residents experience uncomfortably high and low indoor temperatures. Indoor temperature may influence cognitive function and sleepiness, although we did not observe deleterious effects of higher temperatures.

An urban-to-rural continuum of malaria risk: new analytic approaches characterize patterns in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The urban-rural designation has been an important risk factor in infectious disease epidemiology. Many studies rely on a politically determined dichotomization of rural versus urban spaces, which fails to capture the complex mosaic of infrastructural, social and environmental factors driving risk. Such evaluation is especially important for Plasmodium transmission and malaria disease. To improve targeting of anti-malarial interventions, a continuous composite measure of urbanicity using spatially-referenced data was developed to evaluate household-level malaria risk from a house-to-house survey of children in Malawi. METHODS: Children from 7564 households from eight districts throughout Malawi were tested for presence of Plasmodium parasites through finger-prick blood sampling and slide microscopy. A survey questionnaire was administered and latitude and longitude coordinates were recorded for each household. Distances from households to features associated with high and low levels of development (health facilities, roads, rivers, lakes) and population density were used to produce a principal component analysis (PCA)-based composite measure for all centroid locations of a fine geo-spatial grid covering Malawi. Regression methods were used to test associations of the urbanicity measure against Plasmodium infection status and to predict parasitaemia risk for all locations in Malawi. RESULTS: Infection probability declined with increasing urbanicity. The new urbanicity metric was more predictive than either a governmentally defined rural/urban dichotomous variable or a population density variable. One reason for this was that 23% of cells within politically defined rural areas exhibited lower risk, more like those normally associated with "urban" locations. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to increasing predictive power, the new continuous urbanicity metric provided a clearer mechanistic understanding than the dichotomous urban/rural designations. Such designations often ignore urban-like, low-risk pockets within traditionally rural areas, as were found in Malawi, along with rural-like, potentially high-risk environments within urban areas. This method of characterizing urbanicity can be applied to other infectious disease processes in rapidly urbanizing contexts.

Presence of dogs and proximity to a wildlife reserve increase household level risk of tungiasis in Kwale, Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: Tungiasis is a ectopic skin disease caused by some species of fleas in the Tunga genus, most notably T. penetrans. The disease afflicts poor and marginalized communities in developing countries. Transmission of tungiasis comprises a complex web of factors including domesticated animals and wildlife. This research explores animal and environmental risk factors for tungiasis in an area adjacent to a wildlife reserve in Kwale, Kenya. METHODS: A two-stage complex sampling strategy was used. Households were selected from three areas in and around Kwale Town, Kenya, an area close to the Kenyan Coast. Households were listed as positive if at least one member had tungiasis. Each household was administered a questionnaire regarding tungiasis behaviors, domesticated animal assets, and wild animal species that frequent the peridomiciliary area. Associations of household tungiasis were tests with household and environmental variables using regression methods. RESULTS: The study included 319 households. Of these, 41 (12.85%) were found to have at least one person who had signs of tungiasis. There were 295 (92.48%) households that possessed at least one species of domesticated animal. It was reported that wildlife regularly come into the vicinity of the home 90.59% of households. Presence of dogs around the home (OR 3.85; 95% CI 1.84; 8.11) and proximity to the park were associated with increased risk for tungiasis infestation in humans in a multivariate regression model. CONCLUSIONS: Human tungiasis is a complex disease associated with domesticated and wild animals. Canines in particular appear to be important determinants of household level risk.

Recurrent Home Flooding in Detroit, MI 2012-2020: Results of a Household Survey.

Household flooding has wide ranging social, economic and public health impacts particularly for people in resource poor communities. The determinants and public health outcomes of recurrent home flooding in urban contexts, however, are not well understood. A household survey was used to assess neighborhood and household level determinants of recurrent home flooding in Detroit, MI. Survey activities were conducted from 2012 to 2020. Researchers collected information on past flooding, housing conditions and public health outcomes. Using the locations of homes, a "hot spot" analysis of flooding was performed to find areas of high and low risk. Survey data were linked to environmental and neighborhood data and associations were tested using regression methods. 4803 households participated in the survey. Flooding information was available for 3842 homes. Among these, 2085 (54.26%) reported experiencing pluvial flooding. Rental occupied units were more likely to report flooding than owner occupied homes (Odd ratio (OR) 1.72 [95% Confidence interval (CI) 1.49, 1.98]). Housing conditions such as poor roof quality and cracks in basement walls influenced home flooding risk. Homes located in census tracts with increased percentages of owner occupied units (vs. rentals) had a lower odds of flooding (OR 0.92 [95% (CI) 0.86, 0.98]). Household factors were found the be more predictive of flooding than neighborhood factors in both univariate and multivariate analyses. Flooding and housing conditions associated with home flooding were associated with asthma cases. Recurrent home flooding is far more prevalent than previously thought. Programs that support recovery and which focus on home improvement to prevent flooding, particularly by landlords, might benefit the public health. These results draw awareness and urgency to problems of urban flooding and public health in other areas of the country confronting the compounding challenges of aging infrastructure, disinvestment and climate change.

Suicide attempt and intentional self-harm during the earlier phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Washtenaw County, Michigan.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department (ED) encounters for suicide attempt and intentional self-harm at a regional tertiary academic medical centre in Washtenaw County, Michigan, which is one of the wealthier and more diverse counties in the state. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis of daily ED encounters from October 2015 through October 2020 for suicide attempt and intentional self-harm (subject n=3002; 62% female; 78% Caucasian) using an autoregressive integrated moving average modelling approach. RESULTS: There were 39.9% (95% CI 22.9% to 53.1%) fewer ED encounters for suicide attempt and intentional self-harm during the first 7 months of the COVID-19 pandemic (ie, on or after 10 March 2020, when the first cases of COVID-19 were identified in Michigan). CONCLUSIONS: Fewer individuals sought emergency care for suicide-related behaviour during the earlier phase of the COVID-19 pandemic than expected when compared to prior years. This suggests initial outbreaks of COVID-19 and state of emergency executive orders did not increase suicide-related behaviour in the short term. More work is needed to determine long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide-related behaviour and whether there are high-risk groups.

Environmental and Household-Based Spatial Risks for Tungiasis in an Endemic Area of Coastal Kenya.

Tungiasis is a cutaneous parasitosis caused by an embedded female sand flea. The distribution of cases can be spatially heterogeneous even in areas with similar risk profiles. This study assesses household and remotely sensed environmental factors that contribute to the geographic distribution of tungiasis cases in a rural area along the Southern Kenyan Coast. Data on household tungiasis case status, demographic and socioeconomic information, and geographic locations were recorded during regular survey activities of the Health and Demographic Surveillance System, mainly during 2011. Data were joined with other spatial data sources using latitude/longitude coordinates. Generalized additive models were used to predict and visualize spatial risks for tungiasis. The household-level prevalence of tungiasis was 3.4% (272/7925). There was a 1.1% (461/41,135) prevalence of infection among all participants. A significant spatial variability was observed in the unadjusted model (p-value < 0.001). The number of children per household, earthen floor, organic roof, elevation, aluminum content in the soil, and distance to the nearest animal reserve attenuated the odds ratios and partially explained the spatial variation of tungiasis. Spatial heterogeneity in tungiasis risk remained even after a factor adjustment. This suggests that there are possible unmeasured factors associated with the complex ecology of sand fleas that may contribute to the disease's uneven distribution.

The sero-epidemiology of Coxiella burnetii (Q fever) across livestock species and herding contexts in Laikipia County, Kenya.

Coxiella burnetii, the causative agent of Query fever (Q fever), is among the most highly infectious zoonotic pathogens transmitted among livestock, with chronic effects challenging to veterinary and medical detection and care systems. Transmission among domestic livestock species can vary regionally due to herd management practices that determine which livestock species are raised, whether or not livestock are in contact with wildlife, and the susceptibility of these livestock to infection. To explore how different livestock management practices are associated with the risk of infection in multispecies environments, we carried out a comparative study of three types of herd management systems in the central Kenyan county of Laikipia: agro-commercial, mixed conservancy/commercial, and smallholder ranches. We tested C. burnetii antibody seroprevalence in four common livestock species. Across all management types, the highest seroprevalence was in camels (20%), followed by goats (18%), sheep (13%), and cattle (6%). We observed a lower odds of testing seropositive for young compared to adult animals (adjusted OR = 0.44 [95% CI 0.24, 0.76]), and for males compared to females (adjusted OR = 0.52 [95% CI 0.33, 0.80]). Animals from mixed conservancy/commercial and smallholder operations had a higher odds of testing seropositive compared to animals from agro-commercial ranches (adjusted OR = 5.17 [95% CI 2.71, 10.44] and adjusted OR = 2.21 [95% CI 1.17, 4.43] respectively). These data suggest that herd management practices might affect the transmission dynamics of C. burnetiiin arid African ecosystems like those seen in Kenya where several transmission modes are possible, risk of drought has promoted new livestock species such as camels, and multiple wildlife species may co-occur with livestock on the landscape. Further longitudinal studies are needed to disentangle the mechanisms underlying these patterns, and further explore transmission patterns between wildlife, domestic animal, and human populations.

Antimalarial bednet protection of children disappears when shared by three or more people in a high transmission setting of western Kenya.

A sizeable proportion of households is forced to share single long-lasting insecticide treated net (LLIN). However, the relationship between increasing numbers of people sharing a net and the risk for Plasmodium infection is unclear. This study revealed whether risk for Plasmodium falciparum infection is associated with the number of people sharing a LLIN in a holoendemic area of Kenya. Children ⩽5 years of age were tested for P. falciparum infection using polymerase chain reaction. Of 558 children surveyed, 293 (52.5%) tested positive for parasitaemia. Four hundred and fifty-eight (82.1%) reported sleeping under a LLIN. Of those, the number of people sharing a net with the sampled child ranged from 1 to 5 (median = 2). Children using a net alone or with one other person were at lower risk than non-users (OR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.10-0.82 and OR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.22-0.97, respectively). On the other hand, there was no significant difference between non-users and children sharing a net with two (OR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.44-1.77) or more other persons (OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.72). LLINs are effective in protecting against Plasmodium infection in children when used alone or with one other person compared with not using them. Public health professionals should inform caretakers of the risks of too many people sharing a net.

Sleeping on the floor decreases insecticide treated bed net use and increases risk of malaria in children under 5 years of age in Mbita District, Kenya.

Children who sleep on the floor are less likely to use long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs); however, the relationship between sleeping location and Plasmodium falciparum infection has not been investigated sufficiently. This study revealed whether sleeping location (bed vs floor) is associated with P. falciparum infection among children 7-59 months old. More than 60% of children slept on the floor. Younger children were significantly more likely to sleep in beds [odds ratio, OR 2.31 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-2.67)]. Nearly 70% of children slept under LLINs the previous night. LLIN use among children who slept on the floor was significantly less than ones sleeping in beds [OR 0.49 (95% CI 0.35-0.68)]. The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based P. falciparum infection rate and slide based infection rate were 65.2 and 29.7%, respectively. Both infections were significantly higher among children slept on the floor [OR1.51 (95% CI 1.08-2.10) for PCR base, OR 1.62 (95% CI 1.14-2.30) for slide base] while net availability was not significant. Sleeping location was also significant for slide based infection with fever (⩾ 37.5 °C) [2.03 (95% CI 1.14-3.84)] and high parasitemia cases (parasite ⩾ 2500 µL(-1)) [2.07 (95% CI 1.03-4.50)]. The results suggest that sleeping location has a direct bearing on the effectiveness of LLINs.

A prescription for sustaining community engagement in malaria elimination on Aneityum Island, Vanuatu: an application of Health Empowerment Theory.

BACKGROUND: Community engagement has contributed to disease control and elimination in many countries. Community engagement in malaria elimination (ME) on Aneityum Island has been sustained since its introduction in the early 1990s. Capacity developed within this population has led to a health empowered community response. Health Empowerment Theory (HET) can account for the innovative community actions and capacity development efforts taken to realize and sustain meaningful changes in well-being. This study used the HET framework to investigate participant perceptions of ME efforts on the island focusing on two HET elements, personal and social-contextual resources. The purpose of this study was to explore the role of empowerment as a critical element of community engagement. METHODS: Six focus group discussions, ten key informant interviews and 17 in-depth interviews were conducted in July 2012 on Aneityum. Both deductive and inductive approaches to qualitative content analysis were used to identify themes, which were condensed, coded and classified based on the HET elements above. RESULTS: Awareness and use of personal and social-contextual resources played an important role in ME efforts. Most participants shared their knowledge to prevent malaria reintroduction. Many participants reported their skills needed for behavioral maintenance, problem-solving or leadership. Participants who perceived a threat took preventive actions even in the dry season. Community leaders focused on second generation capacity development. A local health coalition provided ME services. Members of networks were sources of information and assistance. Face-to-face was the preferred method of communication. Barriers to engagement (e.g., financial difficulties, health literacy issues and underdeveloped infrastructure) were minimized through active collaboration and mutual assistance. CONCLUSIONS: In the community engagement continuum, health empowerment develops incrementally overtime as people gain their knowledge and skills, form coalitions and develop collaborative networks (social capital) to make decisions and take action for change. Community engagement, which facilitates local personal and social-contextual resource development, has potential for ME and multilevel empowerment through community-based capacity development processes. These self-empowered communities have written and will continue to write a 'prescription' for sustaining high levels of engagement.

First Report of a Foodborne Providencia alcalifaciens Outbreak in Kenya.

Providencia alcalifaciens is an emerging bacterial pathogen known to cause acute gastroenteritis in children and travelers. In July 2013, P. alcalifaciens was isolated from four children appearing for diarrhea at Kiambu District Hospital (KDH) in Kenya. This study describes the outbreak investigation, which aimed to identify the source and mechanisms of infection. We identified seven primary and four secondary cases. Among primary cases were four mothers who had children and experienced mild diarrhea after eating mashed potatoes. The mothers reported feeding children after visiting the toilet and washing their hands without soap. P. alcalifaciens was detected from all secondary cases, and the isolates were found to be clonal by random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) fingerprinting. Our study suggests that the outbreak was caused by P. alcalifaciens, although no fluid accumulation was observed in rabbit ileal loops. The vehicle of the outbreak was believed to be the mashed potato dish, but the source of P. alcalifaciens could not be confirmed. We found that lack of hygiene, inadequate food storage, and improper hand washing before food preparation was the likely cause of the current outbreak. This is the first report of a foodborne infection caused by P. alcalifaciens in Kenya.

Determinants of the use of insecticide-treated bed nets on islands of pre- and post-malaria elimination: an application of the health belief model in Vanuatu.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are an integral piece of any malaria elimination strategy, but compliance remains a challenge and determinants of use vary by location and context. The Health Belief Model (HBM) is a tool to explore perceptions and beliefs about malaria and ITN use. Insights from the model can be used to increase coverage to control malaria transmission in island contexts. METHODS: A mixed methods study consisting of a questionnaire and interviews was carried out in July 2012 on two islands of Vanuatu: Ambae Island where malaria transmission continues to occur at low levels, and Aneityum Island, where an elimination programme initiated in 1991 has halted transmission for several years. RESULTS: For most HBM constructs, no significant difference was found in the findings between the two islands: the fear of malaria (99%), severity of malaria (55%), malaria-prevention benefits of ITN use (79%) and willingness to use ITNs (93%). ITN use the previous night on Aneityum (73%) was higher than that on Ambae (68%) though not statistically significant. Results from interviews and group discussions showed that participants on Ambae tended to believe that risk was low due to the perceived absence of malaria, while participants on Aneityum believed that they were still at risk despite the long absence of malaria. On both islands, seasonal variation in perceived risk, thermal discomfort, costs of replacing nets, a lack of money, a lack of nets, nets in poor condition and the inconvenience of hanging had negative influences, while free mass distribution with awareness campaigns and the malaria-prevention benefits had positive influences on ITN use. CONCLUSIONS: The results on Ambae highlight the challenges of motivating communities to engage in elimination efforts when transmission continues to occur, while the results from Aneityum suggest the possibility of continued compliance to malaria elimination efforts given the threat of resurgence. Where a high degree of community engagement is possible, malaria elimination programmes may prove successful.

Insecticide-treated net use before and after mass distribution in a fishing community along Lake Victoria, Kenya: successes and unavoidable pitfalls.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have proven instrumental in the successful reduction of malaria incidence in holoendemic regions during the past decade. As distribution of ITNs throughout sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is being scaled up, maintaining maximal levels of coverage will be necessary to sustain current gains. The effectiveness of mass distribution of ITNs, requires careful analysis of successes and failures if impacts are to be sustained over the long term. METHODS: Mass distribution of ITNs to a rural Kenyan community along Lake Victoria was performed in early 2011. Surveyors collected data on ITN use both before and one year following this distribution. At both times, household representatives were asked to provide a complete accounting of ITNs within the dwelling, the location of each net, and the ages and genders of each person who slept under that net the previous night. Other data on household material possessions, education levels and occupations were recorded. Information on malaria preventative factors such as ceiling nets and indoor residual spraying was noted. Basic information on malaria knowledge and health-seeking behaviours was also collected. Patterns of ITN use before and one year following net distribution were compared using spatial and multi-variable statistical methods. Associations of ITN use with various individual, household, demographic and malaria related factors were tested using logistic regression. RESULTS: After infancy (<1 year), ITN use sharply declined until the late teenage years then began to rise again, plateauing at 30 years of age. Males were less likely to use ITNs than females. Prior to distribution, socio-economic factors such as parental education and occupation were associated with ITN use. Following distribution, ITN use was similar across social groups. Household factors such as availability of nets and sleeping arrangements still reduced consistent net use, however. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive, direct-to-household, mass distribution of ITNs was effective in rapidly scaling up coverage, with use being maintained at a high level at least one year following the intervention. Free distribution of ITNs through direct-to-household distribution method can eliminate important constraints in determining consistent ITN use, thus enhancing the sustainability of effective intervention campaigns.

Diffusion of subsidized ACTs in accredited drug shops in Tanzania: determinants of stocking and characteristics of early and late adopters.

BACKGROUND: Many households in sub-Saharan Africa utilize the private sector as a primary source of treatment for malaria episodes. Expanding access to effective treatment in private drug shops may help reduce incidence of severe disease and mortality. This research leveraged a longitudinal survey of stocking of subsidized artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), an effective anti-malarial, in Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) in two regions of Tanzania. This provided a unique opportunity to explore shop and market level determinants of product diffusion in a developing country retail market. METHODS: 356 ADDOs in the Rukwa and Mtwara regions of Tanzania were surveyed at seven points between Feb 2011 and May 2012. Shop level audits were used to measure the availability of subsidized ACTs at each shop. Data on market and shop level factors were collected during the survey and also extracted from GIS layers. Regression and network based methodologies were used. Shops classified as early and late adopters, following Rogers' model of product diffusion, were compared. The Bass model of product diffusion was applied to determine whether shops stocked ACTs out of a need to imitate market competitors or a desire to satisfy customer needs. RESULTS: Following the introduction of a subsidy for ACTs, stocking increased from 12% to nearly 80% over the seven survey rounds. Stocking was influenced by higher numbers of proximal shops and clinics, larger customer traffic and the presence of a licensed pharmacist. Early adopters were characterized by a larger percentage of customers seeking care for malaria, a larger catchment and sourcing from specific wholesalers/suppliers. The Bass model of product diffusion indicated that shops were adopting products in response to competitor behavior, rather than customer demand. CONCLUSIONS: Decisions to stock new pharmaceutical products in Tanzanian ADDOs are influenced by a combination of factors related to both market competition and customer demand, but are particularly influenced by the behavior of competing shops. Efforts to expand access to new pharmaceutical products in developing country markets could benefit from initial targeting of high profile shops in competitive markets and wholesale suppliers to encourage faster product diffusion across all drug retailers.

Do price subsidies on artemisinin combination therapy for malaria increase household use? Evidence from a repeated cross-sectional study in remote regions of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Medicines Facility-malaria (AMFm) is a pilot program that uses price subsidies to increase access to Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs), currently the most effective malaria treatment. Recent evidence suggests that availability and affordability of ACTs in retail sector drug shops (where many people treat malaria) has increased under the AMFm, but it is unclear whether household level ACT use has increased. METHODS AND FINDINGS: household surveys were conducted in two remote regions of Tanzania (Mtwara and Rukwa) in three waves: March 2011, December 2011 and March 2012, corresponding to 3, 13 and 16 months into the AMFm implementation respectively. Information about suspected malaria episodes including treatment location and medications taken was collected. Respondents were also asked about antimalarial preferences and perceptions about the availability of these medications. Significant increases in ACT use, preference and perceived availability were found between Rounds 1 and 3 though not for all measures between Rounds 1 and 2. ACT use among suspected malaria episodes was 51.1% in March 2011 and increased by 10.9 percentage points by Round 3 (p = .017). The greatest increase was among retail sector patients, where ACT use increased from 31% in Round 1 to 49% in Round 2 (p = .037) and to 61% (p<.0001) by Round 3. The fraction of suspected malaria episodes treated in the retail sector increased from 30.2% in Round 1 to 46.7% in Round 3 (p = .0009), mostly due to a decrease in patients who sought no treatment at all. No significant changes in public sector treatment seeking were found. CONCLUSIONS: The AMFm has led to significant increases in ACT use for suspected malaria, especially in the retail sector. No evidence is found supporting the concerns that the AMFm would crowd out public sector treatment or neglect patients in remote areas and from low SES groups.

Trends in availability and prices of subsidized ACT over the first year of the AMFm: evidence from remote regions of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Medicines Facility for malaria (AMFm) is a pilot supra-national subsidy program that aims to increase access and affordability of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) in public sector clinics and private retail shops. It is unclear to what extent the AMFm model will translate into wide scale availability and price reductions in ACT, particularly for rural, remote areas where disparities in access to medicines often exist. This study is the first to rigorously examine the availability and price of subsidized ACT during the first year of the AMFm, measured through retail audits in remote regions of Tanzania. METHODS: Periodic retail audits of Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) were conducted in two remote regions of Tanzania (Mtwara and Rukwa). Temporal and spatial variation in ACT availability and pricing were explored. A composite measure of ADDO remoteness, using variables, such as distance to suppliers and towns, altitude and population density, was used to explore whether ACT availability and price vary systematically with remoteness. RESULTS: Between February 2011 and January 2012, the fraction of ADDOs stocking AMFm-ACT increased from 25% to 88% in Mtwara and from 3% to 62% in Rukwa. Availability was widespread, though diffusion throughout the region was achieved more quickly in Mtwara. No significant relationship was found between ACT availability and remoteness. Adult doses of AMFm-ACT were much more widely available than any other age/weight band. Average prices fell from 1529 TZS (1.03 USD) to 1272 TZS (0.81 USD) over the study period, with prices in Rukwa higher than Mtwara. The government recommended retail price for AMFm- ACT is 1,000 TZS ($0.64 USD). The median retail ACT price in the final round of data collection was 1,000 TZS. CONCLUSIONS: The AMFm led to large increases in availability of low priced ACT in Tanzania, with no significant variation in availability based on remoteness. Availability did remain lower and prices remained higher in Rukwa, which is a more remote region overall. Low availability of child and adolescent ACT doses could be due in part to lower quantities of non-adult packs imported into Tanzania. Future research will explore whether increased availability and affordability persists and whether it translates into higher ACT use in Tanzania.