RESUMO
About five to four million years ago, in the early Pliocene epoch, Earth had a warm, temperate climate. The gradual cooling that followed led to the establishment of modern temperature patterns, possibly in response to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentration, of the order of 100 parts per million, towards preindustrial values. Here we synthesize the available geochemical proxy records of sea surface temperature and show that, compared with that of today, the early Pliocene climate had substantially lower meridional and zonal temperature gradients but similar maximum ocean temperatures. Using an Earth system model, we show that none of the mechanisms currently proposed to explain Pliocene warmth can simultaneously reproduce all three crucial features. We suggest that a combination of several dynamical feedbacks underestimated in the models at present, such as those related to ocean mixing and cloud albedo, may have been responsible for these climate conditions.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática/história , Clima , Água do Mar/análise , Temperatura , Atmosfera/química , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Mudança Climática/estatística & dados numéricos , Geografia , Sedimentos Geológicos/química , Aquecimento Global/história , Aquecimento Global/estatística & dados numéricos , História Antiga , Camada de Gelo , Modelos Teóricos , Oceanos e MaresRESUMO
The distribution of sources and sinks of carbon among the world's ecosystems is uncertain. Some analyses show northern mid-latitude lands to be a large sink, whereas the tropics are a net source; other analyses show the tropics to be nearly neutral, whereas northern mid-latitudes are a small sink. Here we show that the annual flux of carbon from deforestation and abandonment of agricultural lands in the Brazilian Amazon was a source of about 0.2 Pg Cyr(-1) over the period 1989-1998 (1 Pg is 10(15) g). This estimate is based on annual rates of deforestation and spatially detailed estimates of deforestation, regrowing forests and biomass. Logging may add another 5-10% to this estimate, and fires may double the magnitude of the source in years following a drought. The annual source of carbon from land-use change and fire approximately offsets the sink calculated for natural ecosystems in the region. Thus this large area of tropical forest is nearly balanced with respect to carbon, but has an interannual variability of +/- 0.2 PgC yr(-1).