Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change.

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

A link between plant diversity, elevated CO2 and soil nitrate.

Interactive effects of reductions in plant species diversity and increases in atmospheric CO2 were investigated in a long-term study in nutrient-poor calcareous grassland. Throughout the experiment, soil nitrate was persistently increased at low plant species diversity, and CO2 enrichment reduced soil [NO3-] at all levels of plant species diversity. In our study, soil [NO3-] was unrelated to root length density, microbial biomass N, community legume contents, and experimental plant communities differed only little in total N pools. However, potential nitrification revealed exactly the same treatment effects as soil [NO3-], providing circumstantial evidence that nitrification rates drove the observed changes in [NO3-]. One possible explanation for plant diversity effects on nitrification lies in spatial and temporal interspecific differences in plant N uptake, which would more often allow accumulation of NH4+ in part of the soil profile at low diversity than in more species-rich plant communities. Consequently, nitrification rates and soil [NO3-] would increase. Elevated CO2 increased soil water contents, which may have improved NO3- diffusion to the root surface thereby reducing soil [NO3-]. Higher soil moisture at elevated CO2 might also reduce nitrification rates due to less aerobic conditions. The accordance of the diversity effect on soil [NO3-] with previous experiments suggests that increased soil [NO3-] at low species diversity is a fairly general phenomenon, although the mechanisms causing high [NO3-] may vary. In contrast, experimental evidence for effects of CO2 enrichment on soil [NO3-] is ambiguous, and the antagonistic interaction of plant species reductions and elevated CO2 we have observed is thus probably less universal.

Plant diversity and productivity experiments in european grasslands

At eight European field sites, the impact of loss of plant diversity on primary productivity was simulated by synthesizing grassland communities with different numbers of plant species. Results differed in detail at each location, but there was an overall log-linear reduction of average aboveground biomass with loss of species. For a given number of species, communities with fewer functional groups were less productive. These diversity effects occurred along with differences associated with species composition and geographic location. Niche complementarity and positive species interactions appear to play a role in generating diversity-productivity relationships within sites in addition to sampling from the species pool.

A field study of the effects of elevated CO(2) on plant biomass and community structure in a calcareous grassland.

The effects of elevated CO(2) on plant biomass and community structure have been studied for four seasons in a calcareous grassland in northwest Switzerland. This highly diverse, semi-natural plant community is dominated by the perennial grass Bromus erectus and is mown twice a year to maintain species composition. Plots of 1.3 m(2) were exposed to ambient or elevated CO(2) concentrations (n = 8) using a novel CO(2) exposure technique, screen-aided CO(2) control (SACC) starting in March 1994. In the 1st year of treatment, the annual harvested biomass (sum of aboveground biomass from mowings in June and October) was not significantly affected by elevated CO(2). However, biomass increased significantly at elevated CO(2) in the 2nd (+20%, P = 0.05), 3rd (+21%, P = 0.02) and 4th years (+29%, P = 0.02). There were no detectable differences in root biomass in the top 8 cm of soil between CO(2) treatments on eight out of nine sampling dates. There were significant differences in CO(2) responsiveness between functional groups (legumes, non-leguminous forbs, graminoids) in the 2nd (P = 0.07) and 3rd (P < 0.001) years of the study. The order of CO(2) responsiveness among functional groups changed substantially from the 2nd to the 3rd year; for example, non-leguminous forbs had the smallest relative response in the 2nd year and the largest in the 3rd year. By the 3rd year of CO(2) exposure, large species-specific differences in CO(2) response had developed. For five important species or genera the order of responsiveness was Lotus corniculatus (+271%), Carex flacca (+249%), Bromus erectus (+33%), Sanguisorba minor (no significant CO(2) effect), and six Trifolium species (a negative response that was not significant). The positive CO(2) responses in Bromus and Carex were most closely related to increases in tiller number. Species richness was not affected by CO(2) treatment, but species evenness increased under elevated CO(2) (modified Hill ratio; P = 0.03) in June of the 3rd year, resulting in a marginally significant increase in species diversity (Simpson's index; P = 0.09). This and other experiments with calcareous grassland plants show that elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentrations can substantially alter the structure of calcareous grassland communities and may increase plant community biomass.

Growth and senescence in plant communities exposed to elevated CO2 concentrations on an estuarine marsh.

Three high marsh communities on the Chesapeake Bay were exposed to a doubling in ambient CO2 concentration for one growing season. Open-top chambers were used to raise CO2 concentrations ca. 340 ppm above ambient over monospecific communities of Scirpus olneyi (C3) and Spartina patens (C4), and a mixed community of S. olneyi, S. patens, and Distichlis spicata (C4). Plant growth and senescence were monitored by serial, nondestructive censuses. Elevated CO2 resulted in increased shoot densities and delayed sensecence in the C3 species. This resulted in an increase in primary productivity in S. olneyi growing in both the pure and mixed communities. There was no effect of CO2 on growth in the C4 species. These results demonstrate that elevated atmospheric CO2 can cause increased aboveground production in a mature, unmanaged ecosystem.