RESUMO
A common basis to address the dynamics of directly transmitted infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, are compartmental (or SIR) models. SIR models typically assume homogenous population mixing, a simplification that is convenient but unrealistic. Here we validate an existing model of a scale-free fractal infection process using high-resolution data on COVID-19 spread in São Caetano, Brazil. We find that transmission can be described by a network in which each infectious individual has a small number of susceptible contacts, of the order of 2-5. This model parameter correlated tightly with physical distancing measured by mobile phone data, such that in periods of greater distancing the model recovered a lower average number of contacts, and vice versa. We show that the SIR model is a special case of our scale-free fractal process model in which the parameter that reflects population structure is set at unity, indicating homogeneous mixing. Our more general framework better explained the dynamics of COVID-19 in São Caetano, used fewer parameters than a standard SIR model and accounted for geographically localized clusters of disease. Our model requires further validation in other locations and with other directly transmitted infectious agents.
RESUMO
Human T lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) infects 10-20 million people worldwide. The majority of infected individuals are asymptomatic; however, approximately 3% develop the debilitating neurological disease HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). There is also currently no cure, vaccine or effective therapy for HTLV-1 infection, and the mechanisms for progression to HAM/TSP remain unclear. NK T cells are an immunoregulatory T cell subset whose frequencies and effector functions are associated critically with immunity against infectious diseases. We hypothesized that NK T cells are associated with HAM/TSP progression. We measured NK T cell frequencies and absolute numbers in individuals with HAM/TSP infection from two cohorts on two continents: São Paulo, Brazil and San Francisco, CA, USA, and found significantly lower levels when compared with healthy subjects and/or asymptomatic carriers. Also, the circulating NK T cell compartment in HAM/TSP subjects is comprised of significantly more CD4(+) and fewer CD8(+) cells than healthy controls. These findings suggest that lower numbers of circulating NK T cells and enrichment of the CD4(+) NK T subset are associated with HTLV-1 disease progression.