Conservation features of the terrestrial Antarctic Peninsula.

Conserving landscapes used by multiple stakeholder groups requires understanding of what each stakeholder values. Here we employed a semi-structured, participatory approach to identify features of value in the terrestrial Antarctic Peninsula related to biodiversity, science and tourism. Stakeholders identified 115 features, ranging from Adélie penguin colonies to sites suitable for snowshoeing tourists. We split the features into seven broad categories: science, tourism, historic, biodiversity, geographic, habitat, and intrinsic features, finding that the biodiversity category contained the most features of any one category, while science stakeholders identified the most features of any stakeholder group. Stakeholders have overlapping interests in some features, particularly for seals and seabirds, indicating that thoughtful consideration of their inclusion in future management is required. Acknowledging the importance of tourism and other social features in Antarctica and ensuring their integration into conservation planning and assessment will increase the likelihood of implementing successful environmental management strategies into the future.

Evaluating the conservation impact of Antarctica's protected areas.

Antarctic specially protected areas (ASPAs) are a key regulatory mechanism for protecting Antarctic environmental values. Previous evaluations of the effectiveness of the ASPA system focused on its representativeness and design characteristics, presenting a compelling rationale for its systematic revision. Upgrading the system could increase the representation of values within ASPAs, but representation alone does not guarantee the avoided loss or improvement of those values. Identifying factors that influence the effectiveness of ASPAs would inform the design and management of an ASPA system with the greatest capacity to deliver its intended conservation outcomes. To facilitate evaluations of ASPA effectiveness, we devised a research and policy agenda that includes articulating a theory of change for what outcomes ASPAs generate and how; building evaluation principles into ASPA design and designation processes; employing complementary approaches to evaluate multiple dimensions of effectiveness; and extending evaluation findings to identify and exploit drivers of positive conservation impact. Implementing these approaches will enhance the efficacy of ASPAs as a management tool, potentially leading to improved outcomes for Antarctic natural values in an era of rapid global change. Evaluación del impacto de conservación de las áreas protegidas de la Antártida.

Las áreas antárticas con protección especial (AAPE) son un mecanismo regulador clave para la protección de los valores ambientales en la Antártida. Las evaluaciones previas de la efectividad del sistema AAPE se centraron en su representatividad y características de diseño, lo que representó una justificación convincente para su revisión sistemática. La actualización del sistema podría aumentar la representación de los valores dentro de las AAPE, pero la representación por sí sola no garantiza que se evite la pérdida o la mejora de dichos valores. La identificación de los factores que influyen en la eficiencia de las AAPE contribuiría al diseño y la gestión de un sistema de AAPE con mayor capacidad de obtención de los resultados diseñados de conservación. Para facilitar las evaluaciones de la eficiencia de las AAPE, diseñamos una agenda política y de investigación que incluye la articulación de una teoría del cambio sobre cuáles resultados generan las AAPE y cómo lo hacen; la incorporación de principios de evaluación en los procesos de diseño y designación de AAPE; el empleo de enfoques complementarios para evaluar múltiples dimensiones de la eficiencia; y la ampliación de los resultados de la evaluación para identificar y explotar los impulsores del impacto positivo en la conservación. La aplicación de estos enfoques mejorará la eficiencia de las AAPE como herramienta de gestión, lo que potencialmente llevará a mejores resultados para los valores naturales antárticos en una era de rápido cambio global.

Threat management priorities for conserving Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

Islands in the ice: Potential impacts of habitat transformation on Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic biodiversity faces an unknown future with a changing climate. Most terrestrial biota is restricted to limited patches of ice-free land in a sea of ice, where they are adapted to the continent's extreme cold and wind and exploit microhabitats of suitable conditions. As temperatures rise, ice-free areas are predicted to expand, more rapidly in some areas than others. There is high uncertainty as to how species' distributions, physiology, abundance, and survivorship will be affected as their habitats transform. Here we use current knowledge to propose hypotheses that ice-free area expansion (i) will increase habitat availability, though the quality of habitat will vary; (ii) will increase structural connectivity, although not necessarily increase opportunities for species establishment; (iii) combined with milder climates will increase likelihood of non-native species establishment, but may also lengthen activity windows for all species; and (iv) will benefit some species and not others, possibly resulting in increased homogeneity of biodiversity. We anticipate considerable spatial, temporal, and taxonomic variation in species responses, and a heightened need for interdisciplinary research to understand the factors associated with ecosystem resilience under future scenarios. Such research will help identify at-risk species or vulnerable localities and is crucial for informing environmental management and policymaking into the future.

Microfibers in oceanic surface waters: A global characterization.

Microfibers are ubiquitous contaminants of emerging concern. Traditionally ascribed to the "microplastics" family, their widespread occurrence in the natural environment is commonly reported in plastic pollution studies, based on the assumption that fibers largely derive from wear and tear of synthetic textiles. By compiling a global dataset from 916 seawater samples collected in six ocean basins, we show that although synthetic polymers currently account for two-thirds of global fiber production, oceanic fibers are mainly composed of natural polymers. µFT-IR characterization of ~2000 fibers revealed that only 8.2% of oceanic fibers are synthetic, with most being cellulosic (79.5%) or of animal origin (12.3%). The widespread occurrence of natural fibers throughout marine environments emphasizes the necessity of chemically identifying microfibers before classifying them as microplastics. Our results highlight a considerable mismatch between the global production of synthetic fibers and the current composition of marine fibers, a finding that clearly deserves further attention.

Floating macro- and microplastics around the Southern Ocean: Results from the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition.

While macroplastics have been washing up on Southern Ocean islands for decades and microplastics have been found in seabirds from the region since 1960, there are still relatively few quantitative data on the amount of plastic pollution, especially with regard to floating plastics, at high southern latitudes. We present a baseline estimate of the abundance of floating plastics around the Southern Ocean from a survey of floating macro-, meso- and microplastic pollution conducted during the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition in 2016/17. A total of 40 net trawls and 626 h of observation were performed during this survey. Of these, 33 net samples and 552 h of observation were made in polar waters south of the Subtropical Front (STF). Only 5 microplastics and 17 macrolitter items were observed south of the STF, confirming the Southern Ocean as the region with the lowest concentrations of plastic pollution globally. The mean concentrations of floating macrolitter (0.02-0.03 items·km-2) and small plastic fragments (188 ± 589 particles·km-2) south of the STF were one order of magnitude lower than in adjacent temperate waters north of the STF, which suggests that the STF acts as a barrier to the southward transport of floating debris. Despite their much lower density, the mass of macroplastics was similar to that of floating microplastics in the Southern Ocean.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia's Threatened Species.

Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species' vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia's threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species.

Achieving open access to conservation science.

Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay-per-view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per-article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation-oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees.