Competing risks analysis for neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of diabetic retinopathy incidence in the Scottish population.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major sight-threatening microvascular complication in individuals with diabetes. Systemic inflammation combined with oxidative stress is thought to capture most of the complexities involved in the pathology of diabetic retinopathy. A high level of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an indicator of abnormal immune system activity. Current estimates of the association of NLR with diabetes and its complications are almost entirely derived from cross-sectional studies, suggesting that the nature of the reported association may be more diagnostic than prognostic. Therefore, in the present study, we examined the utility of NLR as a biomarker to predict the incidence of DR in the Scottish population. METHODS: The incidence of DR was defined as the time to the first diagnosis of R1 or above grade in the Scottish retinopathy grading scheme from type 2 diabetes diagnosis. The effect of NLR and its interactions were explored using a competing risks survival model adjusting for other risk factors and accounting for deaths. The Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model (FGR) was used to predict the effect of NLR on the incidence of DR. RESULTS: We analysed data from 23,531 individuals with complete covariate information. At 10 years, 8416 (35.8%) had developed DR and 2989 (12.7%) were lost to competing events (death) without developing DR and 12,126 individuals did not have DR. The median (interquartile range) level of NLR was 2.04 (1.5 to 2.7). The optimal NLR cut-off value to predict retinopathy incidence was 3.04. After accounting for competing risks at 10 years, the cumulative incidence of DR and deaths without DR were 50.7% and 21.9%, respectively. NLR was associated with incident DR in both Cause-specific hazard (CSH = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.28-2.07) and FGR models the subdistribution hazard (sHR = 2.24; 95% CI: 1.70-2.94). Both age and HbA1c were found to modulate the association between NLR and the risk of DR. CONCLUSIONS: The current study suggests that NLR has a promising potential to predict DR incidence in the Scottish population, especially in individuals less than 65 years and in those with well-controlled glycaemic status.

Stable Incidence and Increasing Prevalence of Primary Hyperparathyroidism in a Population-based Study in Scotland.

CONTEXT: Previous studies, including our own, have demonstrated a highly variable incidence of primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) from year to year. OBJECTIVE: We planned to provide a current estimate of the incidence and prevalence of PHPT in a community-based study. METHODS: A population-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted in Tayside (Scotland) from 2007 to 2018. Record-linkage technology (demography, biochemistry, prescribing, hospital admissions, radiology, and mortality data) was used to identify all patients. Cases of PHPT were defined as those with at least 2 raised serum corrected calcium concentration CCA (> 2.55 mmol/L) and/or hospital admissions with PHPT diagnoses and/or surgery records with parathyroidectomy during the follow-up period. The number of prevalent and incident cases of PHPT per calendar year by age and sex were estimated. RESULTS: A total of 2118 people (72.3% female, mean age 65 years) were identified with an incident case of PHPT. The overall prevalence of PHPT over the 12 years of the study was 0.84% (95% CI, 0.68%-1.02%), steadily increasing from 0.71% in 2007 to 1.02% in 2018. From 2008, the incidence of PHPT was relatively stable from 4 to 6 cases per 10 000 person-years, declining from 11.5 per 10 000 person-years in 2007. The incidence varied from 0.59 per 10 000 person-years (95% CI, 0.40%-0.77%) for those aged 20 to 29 years, to 12.4 per 10 000 person-years (95% CI, 11.2%-13.3%) in those aged 70 to 79 years. Incidence of PHPT was 2.5 times higher in women than in men. CONCLUSION: This study is the first showing a relatively steady annual incidence of PHPT at 4 to 6 per 10 000 person-years. This population-based study reports a PHPT prevalence of 0.84%.

Morbidity Associated With Primary Hyperparathyroidism-A Population-based Study With a Subanalysis on Vitamin D.

CONTEXT: Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is associated with increased risk of morbidity and death, and vitamin D levels are a potentially confounding variable. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess morbidity and mortality associated with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). METHODS: In this population-based retrospective matched cohort study, data linkage of biochemistry, hospital admissions, prescribing, imaging, pathology, and deaths was used to identify patients across the region of Tayside, Scotland, who had PHPT from 1997 to 2019. Cox proportional hazards models and hazards ratios (HR) were used to explore the relationship between exposure to PHPT and several clinical outcomes. Comparisons were made with an age- and gender-matched cohort. RESULTS: In 11 616 people with PHPT (66.8% female), with a mean follow-up period of 8.8 years, there was an adjusted HR of death of 2.05 (95% CI, 1.97-2.13) for those exposed to PHPT. There was also an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (HR = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.24-1.45), cerebrovascular disease (HR = 1.29; 95% CI, 1.15-1.45), diabetes (HR = 1.39; 95% CI, 1.26-1.54), renal stones (HR = 3.02; 95% CI, 2.19-4.17) and osteoporosis (HR = 1.31; 95% CI, 1.16-1.49). Following adjustment for serum vitamin D concentrations (n = 2748), increased risks for death, diabetes, renal stones, and osteoporosis persisted, but not for cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease. CONCLUSION: In a large population-based study, PHPT was associated with death, diabetes, renal stones, and osteoporosis, independent of serum vitamin D concentration.

A study of acromegaly-associated headache with somatostatin analgesia.

The aim of this study is to characterise somatostatin analogue-responsive headache in acromegaly, hitherto not systematically documented in a significant cohort. Using the UK pituitary network, we have clinically characterised a cohort of 18 patients suffering from acromegaly-related headache with a clear response to somatostatin analogues. The majority of patients had chronic migraine (78%) as defined by the International Headache Society diagnostic criteria. Headache was present at the time of acromegaly presentation and clearly associated temporally with disease activity in all cases. Short-acting somatostatin analogues uniquely resolved pain within minutes and the mean duration of analgesia was 1-6 h. Patients on long-acting analogues required less short-acting injections (mean: 3.7 vs 10.4 injections per day, P = 0.005). 94% used somatostatin analogues to control ongoing headache pain. All patients presented with macroadenoma, most had incomplete resection (94%) and headache was ipsilateral to remnant tissue (94%). Although biochemical control was achieved in 78% of patients, headache remained in 71% of them. Patients selected for this study had ongoing headache post-treatment (mean duration: 16 years after diagnosis); only four patients reached headache remission 26 years (mean range: 14-33) after the diagnosis. Headache in acromegaly patients can be persistent, severe, unrelieved by surgery, long-lasting and uncoupled from biochemical control. We show here that long-acting analogues allow a decrease in the number of short-acting analogue injections for headache relief. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms, markers and tumour tissue characteristics of acromegaly-related headache. Until then, this publication serves to provide the clinical characteristics as a reference point for further study.

Using Data to Improve the Management of Diabetes: The Tayside Experience.

Tayside is a region in the East of Scotland and forms one of nine local government regions in the country. It is home to approximately 416,000 individuals who fall under the National Health Service (NHS) Tayside health board, which provides health care services to the population. In Tayside, Scotland, a comprehensive informatics network for diabetes care and research has been established for over 25 years. This has expanded more recently to a comprehensive Scotland-wide clinical care system, Scottish Care Information - Diabetes (SCI-Diabetes). This has enabled improved diabetes screening and integrated management of diabetic retinopathy, neuropathy, nephropathy, cardiovascular health, and other comorbidities. The regional health informatics network links all of these specialized services with comprehensive laboratory testing, prescribing records, general practitioner records, and hospitalization records. Not only do patients benefit from the seamless interconnectedness of these data, but also the Tayside bioresource has enabled considerable research opportunities and the creation of biobanks. In this article we describe how health informatics has been used to improve care of people with diabetes in Tayside and Scotland and, through anonymized data linkage, our understanding of the phenotypic and genotypic etiology of diabetes and associated complications and comorbidities.

Cohort profile: the Scottish Diabetes Research Network national diabetes cohort - a population-based cohort of people with diabetes in Scotland.

PURPOSE: The Scottish Diabetes Research Network (SDRN)-diabetes research platform was established to combine disparate electronic health record data into research-ready linked datasets for diabetes research in Scotland. The resultant cohort, 'The SDRN-National Diabetes Dataset (SDRN-NDS)', has many uses, for example, understanding healthcare burden and socioeconomic trends in disease incidence and prevalence, observational pharmacoepidemiology studies and building prediction tools to support clinical decision making. PARTICIPANTS: We estimate that >99% of those diagnosed with diabetes nationwide are captured into the research platform. Between 2006 and mid-2020, the cohort comprised 472 648 people alive with diabetes at any point in whom there were 4 million person-years of follow-up. Of the cohort, 88.1% had type 2 diabetes, 8.8% type 1 diabetes and 3.1% had other types (eg, secondary diabetes). Data are captured from all key clinical encounters for diabetes-related care, including diabetes clinic, primary care and podiatry and comprise clinical history and measurements with linkage to blood results, microbiology, prescribed and dispensed drug and devices, retinopathy screening, outpatient, day case and inpatient episodes, birth outcomes, cancer registry, renal registry and causes of death. FINDINGS TO DATE: There have been >50 publications using the SDRN-NDS. Examples of recent key findings include analysis of the incidence and relative risks for COVID-19 infection, drug safety of insulin glargine and SGLT2 inhibitors, life expectancy estimates, evaluation of the impact of flash monitors on glycaemic control and diabetic ketoacidosis and time trend analysis showing that diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) remains a major cause of death under age 50 years. The findings have been used to guide national diabetes strategy and influence national and international guidelines. FUTURE PLANS: The comprehensive SDRN-NDS will continue to be used in future studies of diabetes epidemiology in the Scottish population. It will continue to be updated at least annually, with new data sources linked as they become available.

Retinal vascular measures from diabetes retinal screening photographs and risk of incident dementia in type 2 diabetes: A GoDARTS study.

Objective: Patients with diabetes have an increased risk of dementia. Improved prediction of dementia is an important goal in developing future prevention strategies. Diabetic retinopathy screening (DRS) photographs may be a convenient source of imaging biomarkers of brain health. We therefore investigated the association of retinal vascular measures (RVMs) from DRS photographs in patients with type 2 diabetes with dementia risk. Research Design and Methods: RVMs were obtained from 6,111 patients in the GoDARTS bioresource (635 incident cases) using VAMPIRE software. Their association, independent of Apo E4 genotype and clinical parameters, was determined for incident all cause dementia (ACD) and separately Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VD). We used Cox's proportional hazards with competing risk of death without dementia. The potential value of RVMs to increase the accuracy of risk prediction was evaluated. Results: Increased retinal arteriolar fractal dimension associated with increased risk of ACD (csHR 1.17; 1.08-1.26) and AD (HR 1.33; 1.16-1.52), whereas increased venular fractal dimension (FDV) was associated with reduced risk of AD (csHR 0.85; 0.74-0.96). Conversely, FDV was associated with increased risk of VD (csHR 1.22; 1.07-1.40). Wider arteriolar calibre was associated with a reduced risk of ACD (csHR 0.9; 0.83-0.98) and wider venular calibre was associated with a reduced risk of AD (csHR 0.87; 0.78-0.97). Accounting for competing risk did not substantially alter these findings. RVMs significantly increased the accuracy of prediction. Conclusions: Conventional DRS photographs could enhance stratifying patients with diabetes at increased risk of dementia facilitating the development of future prevention strategies.

Identification of 4 New Loci Associated With Primary Hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) and a Polygenic Risk Score for PHPT.

CONTEXT: A hypothesis-free genetic association analysis has not been reported for patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate genetic associations with PHPT using both genome-wide association study (GWAS) and candidate gene approaches. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among patients of European White ethnicity recruited in Tayside (Scotland, UK). Electronic medical records were used to identify PHPT cases and controls, and linked to genetic biobank data. Genetic associations were performed by logistic regression models and odds ratios (ORs). The combined effect of the genotypes was researched by genetic risk score (GRS) analysis. RESULTS: We identified 15 622 individuals for the GWAS that yielded 34 top single-nucleotide variations (formerly single-nucleotide polymorphisms), and LPAR3-rs147672681 reached genome-wide statistical significance (P = 1.2e-08). Using a more restricted PHPT definition, 8722 individuals with data on the GWAS-identified loci were found. Age- and sex-adjusted ORs for the effect alleles of SOX9-rs11656269, SLITRK5-rs185436526, and BCDIN3D-AS1-rs2045094 showed statistically significant increased risks (P < 1.5e-03). GRS analysis of 5482 individuals showed an OR of 2.51 (P = 1.6e-04), 3.78 (P = 4.0e-08), and 7.71 (P = 5.3e-17) for the second, third, and fourth quartiles, respectively, compared to the first, and there was a statistically significant linear trend across quartiles (P < 1.0e-04). Results were similar when stratifying by sex. CONCLUSION: Using genetic loci discovered in a GWAS of PHPT carried out in a Scottish population, this study suggests new evidence for the involvement of genetic variants at SOX9, SLITRK5, LPAR3, and BCDIN3D-AS1. It also suggests that male and female carriers of greater numbers of PHPT-risk alleles both have a statistically significant increased risk of PHPT.

Adherence to General Diabetes and Foot Care Processes, with Prompt Referral, Are Associated with Amputation-Free Survival in People with Type 2 Diabetes and Foot Ulcers: A Scottish National Registry Analysis.

Aims: To compare different packages of care across care providers in Scotland on foot-related outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort study with primary and secondary care electronic health records from the Scottish Diabetes Registry, including 6,845 people with type 2 diabetes and a first foot ulcer occurring between 2013 and 2017. We assessed the association between exposure to care processes and major lower extremity amputation and death. Proportional hazards were used for time-to-event univariate and multivariate analyses, adjusting for case-mix characteristics and care processes. Results were expressed in terms of hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Results: 2,243 (32.7%) subjects had a major amputation or death. Exposure to all nine care processes at all ages (HR = 0.63; 95% CI: 0.58-0.69; p < .001) and higher foot care attendance in people aged >70 years (HR = 0.88; 0.78-0.99; p = .03) were associated with longer major amputation-free survival. Waiting time ≥ 12 weeks between ulceration and clinic attendance was associated with worse outcomes (HR = 1.59; 1.37-1.84; p < .001). In people > 70 years, minor amputations were associated with improved major amputation-free survival (HR = 0.69; 0.52-0.92; p = .01). Conclusions: Strict adherence to a standardised package of general diabetes care before foot ulceration, timely foot care after ulceration, and specific treatment pathways were associated with longer major amputation-free survival among a large cohort of people with type 2 diabetes in Scotland, with a larger impact on older age groups.

Postradioiodine Graves' management: The PRAGMA study.

OBJECTIVE: Thyroid status in the months following radioiodine (RI) treatment for Graves' disease can be unstable. Our objective was to quantify frequency of abnormal thyroid function post-RI and compare effectiveness of common management strategies. DESIGN: Retrospective, multicentre and observational study. PATIENTS: Adult patients with Graves' disease treated with RI with 12 months' follow-up. MEASUREMENTS: Euthyroidism was defined as both serum thyrotropin (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH]) and free thyroxine (FT4) within their reference ranges or, when only one was available, it was within its reference range; hypothyroidism as TSH ≥ 10 mU/L, or subnormal FT4 regardless of TSH; hyperthyroidism as TSH below and FT4 above their reference ranges; dysthyroidism as the sum of hypo- and hyperthyroidism; subclinical hypothyroidism as normal FT4 and TSH between the upper limit of normal and <10 mU/L; and subclinical hyperthyroidism as low TSH and normal FT4. RESULTS: Of 812 patients studied post-RI, hypothyroidism occurred in 80.7% and hyperthyroidism in 48.6% of patients. Three principal post-RI management strategies were employed: (a) antithyroid drugs alone, (b) levothyroxine alone, and (c) combination of the two. Differences among these were small. Adherence to national guidelines regarding monitoring thyroid function in the first 6 months was low (21.4%-28.7%). No negative outcomes (new-onset/exacerbation of Graves' orbitopathy, weight gain, and cardiovascular events) were associated with dysthyroidism. There were significant differences in demographics, clinical practice, and thyroid status postradioiodine between centres. CONCLUSIONS: Dysthyroidism in the 12 months post-RI was common. Differences between post-RI strategies were small, suggesting these interventions alone are unlikely to address the high frequency of dysthyroidism.

Foot Ulcer and Risk of Lower Limb Amputation or Death in People With Diabetes: A National Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe incidence of foot ulceration and amputation-free survival associated with foot ulceration status in a national population-based cohort study of people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The study population included 233,459 people with diabetes who were alive in Scotland on 1 January 2012 identified from the national population-based register (national prevalence 4.9%). Characteristics of patients identified from linked hospital and mortality records during follow-up to the end of November 2017 were compared by outcome. Cox regression was used to assess the association between history of foot ulcer and amputation-free survival. RESULTS: The population included 23,395 people with type 1 diabetes and 210,064 people with type 2 diabetes. In total there were 13,093 (5.6%) people who had a previous foot ulceration, 9,023 people who developed a first ulcer, 48,995 who died, and 2,866 who underwent minor or major amputation during follow-up. Overall incidence of first-time foot ulcers was 7.8 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI7.6-7.9) and 11.2 (11.0-11.4) for any ulcer. Risk factors for reduced amputation-free survival included social deprivation, mental illness, and being underweight in addition to conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were 2.09 (1.89-2.31) for type 1 diabetes and 1.65 (1.60-1.70) for type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The overall incidence of foot ulceration in a population-based study of people with diabetes was 11.2 per 1,000 person-years. Foot ulceration is associated with lower amputation-free survival rate, a potential measure of effectiveness of care among people with diabetes. Mental illness and social deprivation are also highlighted as risk factors.

Evidence of a Causal Relationship between Serum Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone and Osteoporotic Bone Fractures.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate the association of genome-wide association study (GWAS)-identified loci and polygenic risk score with serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentrations and the diagnosis of hypothyroidism. Then, the causal relationship between serum TSH and osteoporotic bone fracture risk was tested. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was done among patients of European Caucasian ethnicity recruited in Tayside (Scotland, UK). Electronic medical records (EMRs) were used to identify patients and average serum TSH concentration and linked to genetic biobank data. Genetic associations were performed by linear and logistic regression models. One-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to test causality of serum TSH on bone fracture risk. RESULTS: Replication in 9,452 euthyroid individuals confirmed known loci previously reported. The 58 polymorphisms accounted for 11.08% of the TSH variation (p < 1e-04). TSH-GRS was directly associated with the risk of hypothyroidism with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.98 for the highest quartile compared to the first quartile (p = 2.2e-12). MR analysis of 5,599 individuals showed that compared with those in the lowest tertile of the TSH-GRS, men in the highest tertile had a decreased risk of osteoporotic bone fracture (OR = 0.59, p = 2.4e-03), while no difference in a similar comparison was observed in women (OR = 0.93, p = 0.61). Sensitivity analysis yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: EMRs linked to genomic data in large populations allow replication of GWAS discoveries without additional genotyping costs. This study suggests that genetically raised serum TSH concentrations are causally associated with decreased bone fracture risk in men.

Polymorphism in INSR Locus Modifies Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients on Thyroid Hormone Replacement Therapy.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a risk for patients receiving thyroid hormone replacement therapy. No published work has focused on pharmacogenetics relevant to thyroid dysfunction and AF risk. We aimed to assess the effect of L-thyroxine on AF risk stratified by a variation in a candidate gene. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective follow-up study was done among European Caucasian patients from the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland cohort (Scotland, United Kingdom). Linked data on biochemistry, prescribing, hospital admissions, demographics, and genetic biobank were used to ascertain patients on L-thyroxine and diagnosis of AF. A GWAS-identified insulin receptor-INSR locus (rs4804416) was the candidate gene. Cox survival models and sensitivity analyses by taking competing risk of death into account were used. Replication was performed in additional sample (The Genetics of Scottish Health Research register, GoSHARE), and meta-analyses across the results of the study and replication cohorts were done. We analyzed 962 exposed to L-thyroxine and 5,840 unexposed patients who were rs4804416 genotyped. The rarer G/G genotype was present in 18% of the study population. The total follow-up was up to 20 years, and there was a significant increased AF risk for patients homozygous carriers of the G allele exposed to L-thyroxine (RHR = 2.35, P = 1.6e-02). The adjusted increased risk was highest within the first 3 years of exposure (RHR = 9.10, P = 8.5e-04). Sensitivity analysis yielded similar results. Effects were replicated in GoSHARE (n = 3,190). CONCLUSION: Homozygous G/G genotype at the INSR locus (rs4804416) is associated with an increased risk of AF in patients on L-thyroxine, independent of serum of free thyroxine and thyroid-stimulating hormone serum concentrations.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for development of diabetic foot ulceration: an analysis of data from five cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR) for foot ulceration in people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Development of a CPR using individual participant data from four international cohort studies identified by systematic review, with validation in a fifth study. Development cohorts were from primary and secondary care foot clinics in Europe and the USA (n=8255, adults over 18 years old, with diabetes, ulcer free at recruitment). Using data from monofilament testing, presence/absence of pulses, and participant history of previous ulcer and/or amputation, we developed a simple CPR to predict who will develop a foot ulcer within 2 years of initial assessment and validated it in a fifth study (n=3324). The CPR's performance was assessed with C-statistics, calibration slopes, calibration-in-the-large, and a net benefit analysis. RESULTS: CPR scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 had a risk of ulcer within 2 years of 2.4% (95% CI 1.5% to 3.9%), 6.0% (95% CI 3.5% to 9.5%), 14.0% (95% CI 8.5% to 21.3%), 29.2% (95% CI 19.2% to 41.0%), and 51.1% (95% CI 37.9% to 64.1%), respectively. In the validation dataset, calibration-in-the-large was -0.374 (95% CI -0.561 to -0.187) and calibration slope 1.139 (95% CI 0.994 to 1.283). The C-statistic was 0.829 (95% CI 0.790 to 0.868). The net benefit analysis suggested that people with a CPR score of 1 or more (risk of ulceration 6.0% or more) should be referred for treatment. CONCLUSION: The clinical prediction rule is simple, using routinely obtained data, and could help prevent foot ulcers by redirecting care to patients with scores of 1 or above. It has been validated in a community setting, and requires further validation in secondary care settings.

The association of polypharmacy and high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes in the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to map the number of prescribed drugs over age, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation, and to examine the association between the number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes among a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Utilising linked healthcare records from the population-based diabetes register of Scotland, we identified 28,245 individuals with a diagnosis of type 1 diabetes on 1 January 2017. For this population, we obtained information on health status, predominantly reflecting diabetes-related complications, and information on the total number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes prescribed. We then studied the association of these baseline-level features with hospital admissions for falls, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), and hypoglycaemia or death within the subsequent year using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Not considering insulin and treatment for hypoglycaemia, the mean number of prescribed drugs was 4.00 (SD 4.35). The proportion of individuals being prescribed five or more drugs at baseline consistently increased with age (proportion [95% CI]: 0-19 years 2.04% [1.60, 2.49]; 40-49 years 28.50% [27.08, 29.93]; 80+ years 76.04% [67.73, 84.84]). Controlling for age, sex, area-based socioeconomic deprivation and health status, each additional drug at baseline was associated with an increase in the hazard for hospitalisation for falls, hypoglycaemia and death but not for DKA admissions (HR [95% CI]: falls 1.03 [1.01, 1.06]; DKA 1.01 [1.00, 1.03]; hypoglycaemia 1.05 [1.02, 1.07]; death 1.04 [1.02, 1.06]). We found a number of drug classes to be associated with an increased hazard of one or more of these adverse health outcomes, including antithrombotic/anticoagulant agents, corticosteroids, opioids, antiepileptics, antipsychotics, hypnotics and sedatives, and antidepressants. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy is common among the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes and is strongly patterned by sociodemographic factors. The number of prescribed drugs and the prescription of particular high-risk drug classes are strong markers of an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, including acute complications of diabetes.

Independent Observational Analysis of Ulcer Outcomes for SINBAD and University of Texas Ulcer Scoring Systems.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare the University of Texas (UT) and Site, Ischemia, Neuropathy, Bacterial Infection, and Depth (SINBAD) foot ulcer scores in predicting ulcer outcome within a routine diabetes foot clinic. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: From 2006 to 2018, data were collected from all patients attending an outpatient diabetes foot clinic with an active ulcer not healed within 4 weeks. UT and SINBAD were compared in predicting ulcer outcome. A unified numerical score for UT was constructed and compared with UT grade (depth) and stage scores. Outcomes included death, a healed ulcer, or a nonhealed ulcer, which included major or minor amputation and nonhealing chronic ulcers. RESULTS: Outcomes were available from 1,645 ulcer outcomes in 1,068 patients (mean [SD] age 65.4 [4] years, 72% male), of which 1,108 (67%) healed. With exclusion of death as an adverse outcome, the c-statistic (area under operator curve) was 0.67 (95% CI 0.65-0.71) for UT grade/depth and 0.64 (0.61-0.67) for UT stage. The new unified UT score had an improved c-statistic of 0.71 (0.68-0.74). The c-statistic was 0.72 (0.69-0.75) for SINBAD. There was a stepwise decrease in the proportion of ulcers healed for each increased score on ulcer grading for both grading schemes. CONCLUSIONS: This large and independent observational comparison, in a real-world clinical setting, demonstrated that the UT and SINBAD diabetes foot ulcer grading schemes had similar prognostic ability for predicting foot ulcer outcomes. We have devised and validated a unified numerical scoring system for UT.

Nice guideline on thyroid disease: where does it take us with liothyronine?

The new NICE guidelines on thyroid disease and its management do not recommend the routine use of liothyronine, but do not completely rule it out either. Guidelines from the British and European Thyroid Associations are open to a "trial of liothyronine" on an individual basis. Some patients do not feel well on L-thyroxine despite a serum TSH in the reference range. Key issues to consider in such patients include establishing whether the patient had established hypothyroidism initially, and whether the L-thyroxine has been titrated carefully enough, possibly using small increments, to achieve a careful balance between symptoms and serum TSH concentrations. Patients should also be considered for other causes of the symptoms which may be wide-ranging. Meta-analyses of several, but small, randomised control trials show no advantage, or disadvantage of liothyronine over L-thyroxine. However, detailed sub-analysis identifies some tantalising results eg on preferential weight loss, patient preference, and possibly genetic markers. Although linked with plausible theoretical explanations, these results may be over-interpreted. The key questions are whether a short-term trial treatment is worthwhile and safe, and whether in the future sub-groups of patients can be identified who may benefit from liothyronine. These questions remain divisive but require additional focussed research. It could be argued that inflated costs of liothyronine in some countries have either distracted from or helped focus on the science. Costs need to be addressed. However better biomarkers of tissue level thyroid action, and a better understanding of the impact of genetic polymorphisms will help to make progress when choosing if there is a place for liothyronine in the future. (words: 262).

Time trends in deaths before age 50 years in people with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide analysis from Scotland 2004-2017.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to examine whether crude mortality and mortality relative to the general population below 50 years of age have improved in recent years in those with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Individuals with type 1 diabetes aged below 50 and at least 1 year old at any time between 2004 and 2017 in Scotland were identified using the national register. Death data were obtained by linkage to Scottish national death registrations. Indirect age standardisation was used to calculate sex-specific standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). Poisson regression was used to test for calendar-time effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: There were 1138 deaths in 251,143 person-years among 27,935 people with type 1 diabetes. There was a significant decline in mortality rate over time (IRR for calendar year 0.983 [95% CI 0.967, 0.998], p = 0.03), but the SMR remained approximately stable at 3.1 and 3.6 in men and 4.09 and 4.16 in women for 2004 and 2017, respectively. Diabetic ketoacidosis or coma (DKAoC) accounted for 22% of deaths and the rate did not decline significantly (IRR 0.975 [95% CI 0.94, 1.011], p = 0.168); 79.3% of DKAoC deaths occurred out of hospital. Circulatory diseases accounted for 27% of deaths and did decline significantly (IRR 0.946 [95% CI 0.914, 0.979], p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Absolute mortality has fallen, but the relative impact of type 1 diabetes on mortality below 50 years has not improved. There is scope to improve prevention of premature circulatory diseases and DKAoC and to develop more effective strategies for enabling people with type 1 diabetes to avoid clinically significant hyper- or hypoglycaemia. Graphical abstract.

Preventing foot ulceration in diabetes: systematic review and meta-analyses of RCT data.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Foot ulceration is a serious complication for people with diabetes that results in high levels of morbidity for individuals and significant costs for health and social care systems. Nineteen systematic reviews of preventative interventions have been published, but none provides a reliable numerical summary of treatment effects. The aim of this study was to systematically review the evidence from RCTs and, where possible, conduct meta-analyses to make the best possible use of the currently available data. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs of preventative interventions for foot ulceration. OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched to February 2019 and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to October 2018. RCTs of interventions to prevent foot ulcers in people with diabetes who were free from foot ulceration at trial entry were included. Two independent reviewers read the full-text articles and extracted data. The quality of trial reporting was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. The primary outcome of foot ulceration was summarised using pooled relative risks in meta-analyses. RESULTS: Twenty-two RCTs of eight interventions were eligible for analysis. One trial of digital silicone devices (RR 0.07 [95% CI 0.01, 0.55]) and meta-analyses of dermal infrared thermometry (RR 0.41 [95% CI 0.19, 0.86]), complex interventions (RR 0.59 [95% CI 0.38, 0.90], and custom-made footwear and offloading insoles (RR 0.53 [95% CI 0.33, 0.85]) showed beneficial effects for these interventions. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Four interventions were identified as being effective in preventing foot ulcers in people with diabetes, but uncertainty remains about what works and who is most likely to benefit.

Use of personalised risk-based screening schedules to optimise workload and sojourn time in screening programmes for diabetic retinopathy: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: National guidelines in most countries set screening intervals for diabetic retinopathy (DR) that are insufficiently informed by contemporary incidence rates. This has unspecified implications for interval disease risks (IDs) of referable DR, disparities in ID between groups or individuals, time spent in referable state before screening (sojourn time), and workload. We explored the effect of various screening schedules on these outcomes and developed an open-access interactive policy tool informed by contemporary DR incidence rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Scottish Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Programme data from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2016 were linked to diabetes registry data. This yielded 128,606 screening examinations in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and 1,384,360 examinations in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Among those with T1D, 47% of those without and 44% of those with referable DR were female, mean diabetes duration was 21 and 23 years, respectively, and mean age was 26 and 24 years, respectively. Among those with T2D, 44% of those without and 42% of those with referable DR were female, mean diabetes duration was 9 and 14 years, respectively, and mean age was 58 and 52 years, respectively. Individual probability of developing referable DR was estimated using a generalised linear model and was used to calculate the intervals needed to achieve various IDs across prior grade strata, or at the individual level, and the resultant workload and sojourn time. The current policy in Scotland-screening people with no or mild disease annually and moderate disease every 6 months-yielded large differences in ID by prior grade (13.2%, 3.6%, and 0.6% annually for moderate, mild, and no prior DR strata, respectively, in T1D) and diabetes type (2.4% in T1D and 0.6% in T2D overall). Maintaining these overall risks but equalising risk across prior grade strata would require extremely short intervals in those with moderate DR (1-2 months) and very long intervals in those with no prior DR (35-47 months), with little change in workload or average sojourn time. Changing to intervals of 12, 9, and 3 months in T1D and to 24, 9, and 3 months in T2D for no, mild, and moderate DR strata, respectively, would substantially reduce disparity in ID across strata and between diabetes types whilst reducing workload by 26% and increasing sojourn time by 2.3 months. Including clinical risk factor data gave a small but significant increment in prediction of referable DR beyond grade (increase in C-statistic of 0.013 in T1D and 0.016 in T2D, both p < 0.001). However, using this model to derive personalised intervals did not have substantial workload or sojourn time benefits over stratum-specific intervals. The main limitation is that the results are pertinent only to countries that share broadly similar rates of retinal disease and risk factor distributions to Scotland. CONCLUSIONS: Changing current policies could reduce disparities in ID and achieve substantial reductions in workload within the range of IDs likely to be deemed acceptable. Our tool should facilitate more rational policy setting for screening.