RESUMO
Overwintering success is an important determinant of arthropod populations that must be considered as climate change continues to influence the spatiotemporal population dynamics of agricultural pests. Using a long-term monitoring database and biologically relevant overwintering zones, we modeled the annual and seasonal population dynamics of a common pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), based on three overwintering suitability zones throughout North America using four decades of soil temperatures: the southern range (able to persist through winter), transitional zone (uncertain overwintering survivorship), and northern limits (unable to survive winter). Our model indicates H. zea population dynamics are hierarchically structured with continental-level effects that are partitioned into three geographic zones. Seasonal populations were initially detected in the southern range, where they experienced multiple large population peaks. All three zones experienced a final peak between late July (southern range) and mid-August to mid-September (transitional zone and northern limits). The southern range expanded by 3% since 1981 and is projected to increase by twofold by 2099 but the areas of other zones are expected to decrease in the future. These changes suggest larger populations may persist at higher latitudes in the future due to reduced low-temperature lethal events during winter. Because H. zea is a highly migratory pest, predicting when populations accumulate in one region can inform synchronous or lagged population development in other regions. We show the value of combining long-term datasets, remotely sensed data, and laboratory findings to inform forecasting of insect pests.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Mariposas , Estações do Ano , Animais , Dinâmica Populacional , TemperaturaRESUMO
Corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), commonly infests field corn, Zea mays (L.). The combination of corn plant biology, corn earworm behavior in corn ecosystems, and field corn value renders corn earworm management with foliar insecticides noneconomical. Corn technologies containing Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Berliner (Bacillales: Bacillaceae) were introduced that exhibit substantial efficacy against corn earworm and may reduce mycotoxin contamination in grain. The first generation Bt traits in field corn demonstrated limited activity on corn earworm feeding on grain. The pyramided corn technologies have greater cumulative protein concentrations and higher expression throughout the plant, so these corn traits should provide effective management of this pest. Additionally, reduced kernel injury may affect physical grain quality. Experiments were conducted during 2011-2012 to investigate corn earworm impact on field corn yield and grain quality. Treatments included field corn hybrids expressing the Herculex, YieldGard, and Genuity VT Triple Pro technologies. Supplemental insecticide treatments were applied every 1-2 d from silk emergence until silk senescence to create a range of injured kernels for each technology. No significant relationship between the number of corn earworm damaged kernels and yield was observed for any technology/hybrid. In these studies, corn earworm larvae did not cause enough damage to impact yield. Additionally, no consistent relationship between corn earworm damage and aflatoxin contamination was observed. Based on these data, the economic value of pyramided Bt corn traits to corn producers, in the southern United States, appears to be from management of other lepidopteran insect pests including European and southwestern corn borer.