A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales.

Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°-15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75-80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables.

Indicators to support local public health to reduce the impacts of heat on health.

Heat exposure presents a significant weather-related health risk in England and Wales, and is associated with acute impacts on mortality and adverse effects on a range of clinical conditions, as well as increased healthcare costs. Most heat-related health outcomes are preventable with health protection measures such as behavioural changes, individual cooling actions, and strategies implemented at the landscape level or related to improved urban infrastructure. We review current limitations in reporting systems and propose ten indicators to monitor changes in heat exposures, vulnerabilities, heat-health outcomes, and progress on adaptation actions. These indicators can primarily inform local area decision-making in managing risks across multiple sectors such as public health, adult and social care, housing, urban planning, and education. The indicators can be used alongside information on other vulnerabilities relevant for heat and health such as underlying morbidity or housing characteristics, to prioritise the most effective adaptation actions for those who need it the most.

Identifying Sources of Lead Exposure for Children in the Republic of Georgia, with Lead Isotope Ratios.

In the Republic of Georgia, a 2018 national survey estimated that more than 40% of children aged 2-7 years had a blood lead concentration (BLC) of more than 5 µg/dL. The objective of this study was to document the feasibility of employing lead isotope ratios (LIRs) to identify and rank the Pb (lead) exposure sources most relevant to children across Georgia. A cross-sectional survey between November 2019 and February 2020 of 36 children previously identified as having BLCs > 5 µg/dL from seven regions of Georgia involved the collection of blood and 528 environmental samples, a questionnaire on behaviours and potential exposures. The LIRs in blood and environmental samples were analysed in individual children and across the whole group to ascertain clustering. A fitted statistical mixed-effect model to LIR data first found that the blood samples clustered with spices, tea, and paint, then, further isotopically distinct from blood were sand, dust, and soil, and lastly, milk, toys, pens, flour, and water. Analysis of the LIRs provided an indication and ranking of the importance of Pb environmental sources as explanatory factors of BLCs across the group of children. The findings support the deployment of interventions aimed at managing the priority sources of exposure in this population.

Sports Utility Vehicles: A Public Health Model of Their Climate and Air Pollution Impacts in the United Kingdom.

The emission benefits of shifting towards battery electric vehicles have so far been hampered by a trend towards sports utility vehicles (SUVs). This study assesses the current and future emissions from SUVs and their potential impact on public health and climate targets. We modelled five scenarios of varying SUV sales and electrification rates, and projected associated carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the relationship between vehicle characteristics and emissions. Cumulative CO2 emissions were valued using the social cost of carbon approach. Life table analyses were used to project and value life years saved from NOx emission reductions. Larger SUVs were disproportionately high emitters of CO2 and NOx. Replacing these with small SUVs achieved significant benefits, saving 702 MtCO2e by 2050 and 1.8 million life years from NO2 reductions. The largest benefits were achieved when combined with electrification, saving 1181 MtCO2e and gaining 3.7 million life years, with a societal value in the range of GBP 10-100s billion(s). Downsizing SUVs could be associated with major public health benefits from reduced CO2 and NOx emissions, in addition to the benefits of electrification. This could be achieved by demand-side mass-based vehicle taxation and supply-side changes to regulations, by tying emission limits to a vehicle's footprint rather than its mass.

Spatial and temporal trends and risk factors for intentional carbon monoxide poisoning hospitalizations in England between 2002 and 2016.

INTRODUCTION: Suicide and mental health disorders are a recognized increasing public concern. Most suicide prevention rely on evidence from mortality data, although suicide attempts are a better predictor for completed suicides. Understanding spatio-temporal patterns and demographic profiles of people at risk can improve suicide prevention schemes, including for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, a common method for gas-related suicides. OBJECTIVE: Describe spatio-temporal patterns of intentional CO poisoning hospitalization rates in England between 2002 and 2016, and identify population sub-groups at risk. METHODS: We used NHS Digital's Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) routinely collected data on hospital admissions for intentional CO poisoning. We estimated age-standardised rates (ASR) by year, gender and residential small-area characteristics, including rural/urban, deprivation and ethnic composition. Temporal trends were assessed through linear regression and joinpoint regression analysis. Regional differences were explored. RESULTS: On average, we identified 178 hospital admissions for intentional CO poisoning per year. The ASR decreased substantially over the study period, particularly among males (average annual percent change of -7.8 % (95 % CI: -11.0; -4.6)), in comparison to 3.9 % (95%CI, -6.4; -1.4) among females. Most admissions (81 %) occurred in males. White men aged 35-44 years were particularly at risk. The ASR in London (0.08/100,000) was almost six times lower than in the South-West (0.47/100,000). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel insights into attempted suicides by intentional CO poisoning. Further prevention interventions, targeting sub-groups at risk (i.e. white men in their 30s/40s), need to be developed and implemented to reduce the burden of suicides and of CO poisoning.

The effect of community water fluoridation on dental caries in children and young people in England: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: The protective effect of community water fluoridation (CWF) against dental caries may be modified by secular changes in health behaviour. We aimed to determine the contemporary association between fluoride in public water supplies (PWS) and dental caries indicators and inequalities in England. METHODS: We estimated exposure to CWF and PWS fluoride concentrations from national monitoring data, using Geographic Information Systems and water supply boundaries, categorizing mean period exposure into <0.1, 0.1-<0.2, 0.2-<0.4, 0.4-<0.7 and ≥0.7 mg/l. We used area-level health outcome and confounder data in multivariable regression models to determine the association between fluoride and caries outcomes and calculated preventive fractions using these coefficients. RESULTS: The odds of caries and of severe caries in 5-year-olds fell with increasing fluoride concentration in all SES quintiles (P < 0.001 to P = 0.003). There was a negative trend between increasing fluoride concentration and dental extractions (P < 0.001). Compared to PWS with <0.2 mg/l, CWF prevented 17% (95% confidence interval (CI): 5-27%) to 28% (95% CI: 24-32%) of caries (high-low SES) and 56% (95% CI: 25-74%) of dental extractions. The association between fluoride concentration and caries prevalence/severity varied by socioeconomic status (SES) (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to fluoride in PWS appears highly protective against dental caries and reduces oral health inequalities.

The Use of Pb Isotope Ratios to Determine Environmental Sources of High Blood Pb Concentrations in Children: A Feasibility Study in Georgia.

The incidence of lead (Pb) poisoning in children in Georgia has been identified as a major health concern, with a recent national survey identifying that 41% of children aged 2-7 years had blood lead concentrations (BLCs) greater than the blood lead reference value (BLRV) of ≥5 µg dL-1. This study collected samples of blood, spices, paint, soil, dust, flour, tea, toys, milk, and water from 36 households in Georgia where a child had previously been identified as having a BLC > BLRV. The Pb concentrations of these samples were determined and compared to Georgian reference values. Samples from 3 households were analysed for their Pb isotope composition. The Pb isotope composition of the environmental and blood samples were compared to identify the most likely source(s) of Pb exposure. This approach identified that some spice and dust samples were the likely sources of Pb in the blood in these cases. Importantly, some soil, paint, and dust sources with high Pb concentrations could be discounted as contributing to blood Pb based on their distinct isotope composition. The data presented demonstrate the significant contribution that Pb surveillance and Pb isotope ratio analyses can make to managing Pb exposure in regions where high BLCs are identified.

'As safe as houses; the risk of childhood lead exposure from housing in England and implications for public health'.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Exposure to lead can harm a child's health, including damage to the nervous system, delayed growth, hearing loss, and many other adverse health effects, as well as implications for social, economic, educational and social well-being. Lead exposure in children is still a concern and cases require public health management to find the exposure source and interrupt the exposure pathway. Housing characteristics can indicate the presence of lead-contaminated paint and leaded water supply pipes. We aimed to explore the relationship between housing characteristics and elevated blood lead concentration (BLC) in children in England. METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort design and included all cases of lead exposure in children reported to the UK Health Security Agency between 2014 and 2020 via surveillance. A case was a child aged under 16 years, resident in England, BLC of ≥ 0.48 µmol/L (10 µg/dL) and referred for public health management. We collected case demographic details and housing characteristics (age and type). We explored associations between elevated BLC and risk factors, using generalised linear mixed effects models and compared cases' housing type to that expected nationally. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-six out of 290 cases met the case definition. There was no difference in BLCs between genders, age groups, deprivation, and housing type. After adjusting for reporting source, housing age and type, cases residing in housing built pre-1976 had a BLC of 0.32 (95%CI 0.02, 0.63) µmols/L (6.63 (95%CI 0.42, 13.0) µg/dL) higher than cases living in housing built after this time. Cases were 1.68 times more likely to be living in terraced housing (housing adjoined to one another) than other children and less likely to live in apartments and detached properties. CONCLUSION: This study suggests an association between housing characteristics and BLC in children. Housing age and type may act as a proxy for lead exposure risk through exposure to leaded paint, lead water pipes, and lead contaminated dust from indoor and outdoor sources. Public health action should consider targeting families more at risk in older housing by raising awareness of the potential presence of lead pipes and paint. Interventions should include working with wider stakeholders including other housing and environmental professionals, the private sector, as well as parents and carers.

Predicting the potential distribution of a near-extinct avian predator on the Arabian Peninsula: implications for its conservation management.

Species distribution models (SDMs) generate predicted distribution maps which can be used as effective tools for conservation purposes. The persistence of isolated populations at the margin of a large distributional area depends on local threats which may differ from those faced by the main population. Environmental predictors can indicate suitable areas for these species and, indirectly, evaluate the impact on peripheral populations due to fragmentation and isolation. The Lanner Falcon (Falco biarmicus) is an Afro-tropical and Mediterranean polytypic species considered critically endangered (CR) in Arabian Peninsula by IUCN, but a lack of published information about its distribution persists. Here, we model the distribution of the Lanner Falcon in the Arabian Peninsula using nest-site data and map its core area and their habitat suitability using a robust algorithm with good prediction accuracy even at low sample sizes (MaxEnt). The predictive map suggests a potential distribution of the Lanner Falcons that runs from north to south along the eastern coast of the Red Sea. The Terrain Roughness Index contributed the most to the breeding range model predictions (57.6%), followed by isothermality (Bio3, 15.3%). The model suggests a tendency by Lanner Falcons to occupy areas with a low terrain complexity according to their behavioural patterns and breeding strategies. In addition, this falcon is highly sensitive to climate occupying high isothermal regions in order to avoid extreme heating events. Overall, predictive models indicate a narrow range of suitable environmental conditions for breeding as well restricted favourable areas during dispersal and migration. Thus, these small and fragmented populations are more likely prone to anthropogenic factors and must be buffered against them.

Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae): What Relationships with and Morpho-Physiological Effects on the Plants It Develops on?

Although many crops have developed several adaptation mechanisms that allow them to defend against limiting factors, some biotic and abiotic stresses may cause reversible or irreversible changes in plants. Among the biotic stresses, the whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) is probably one of the main important pests that negatively affect several vegetable crops that are grown in greenhouses. The present study evaluated its impact on the morphology and physiology of two solanaceous plants, i.e., tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) and eggplant (S. melongena L.), under laboratory conditions. The results showed that, for tomatoes, plant height, shoot dry weight, leaf area, and indirect chlorophyll content were strongly reduced in infested plants, compared to the uninfested control, by 39.36%, 32.37%, 61.01%, and 37.85%, respectively. The same has been shown for eggplant, although the reduction percentages of plant height, root dry weight, and indirect chlorophyll content were less marked (i.e., 16.15%, 31.65%, and 11.39%, respectively). These results could represent interesting information for a better understanding of the B. tabaci influence on plant growth, as well as for the development of management strategies to successfully control its infestations in a cropping system.

Fatal Unintentional Non-Fire Related Carbon Monoxide Poisoning: Data from Narrative Verdicts in England and Wales, 1998-2019.

Unintentional non-fire related (UNFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning continues to cause fatalities. The narrative verdicts from coroners concerning fatal UNFR CO poisoning in England and Wales, 1998-2019, were collated by the Office for National Statistics. Search terms related to CO exposure were used to obtain information regarding the circumstances of death. Findings were grouped by the location of death, the source of CO, and the reason or behaviour underlying the exposure. There were 750 deaths (77% male). The annual number of deaths decreased over the period studied. Two thirds (68%) of the deaths occurred in the autumn or winter. From the records with information, 59% of deaths occurred within a dwelling (67% male). Males also predominated deaths within vehicles (91%) and garages or outbuildings (95%). From the deaths with information, domestic piped gas was the most common source of CO (36%) and the most frequent underlying factor was inadequate ventilation of exhaust gases (39%, 91% male). Despite the decrease in the annual number of deaths over the study period, there remains a clear need for measures that raise awareness of the dangers of CO poisoning, especially amongst men working alone in garages or outbuildings. Education campaigns and fitting and maintaining CO alarms in high-risk areas should be encouraged.

The role of outdoor and indoor air quality in the spread of SARS-CoV-2: Overview and recommendations by the research group on COVID-19 and particulate matter (RESCOP commission).

There are important questions surrounding the potential contribution of outdoor and indoor air quality in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and perpetuation of COVID-19 epidemic waves. Environmental health may be a critical component of COVID-19 prevention. The public health community and health agencies should consider the evolving evidence in their recommendations and statements, and work to issue occupational guidelines. Evidence coming from the current epidemiological and experimental research is expected to add knowledge about virus diffusion, COVID-19 severity in most polluted areas, inter-personal distance requirements and need for wearing face masks in indoor or outdoor environments. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for maintaining particulate matter concentrations at low levels for multiple health-related reasons, which may also include the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Indoor environments represent even a more crucial challenge to cope with, as it is easier for the SARS-COV2 to spread, remain vital and infect other subjects in closed spaces in the presence of already infected asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people. The potential merits of preventive measures, such as CO2 monitoring associated with natural or controlled mechanical ventilation and air purification, for schools, indoor public places (restaurants, offices, hotels, museums, theatres/cinemas etc.) and transportations need to be carefully considered. Hospital settings and nursing/retirement homes as well as emergency rooms, infectious diseases divisions and ambulances represent higher risk indoor environments and may require additional monitoring and specific decontamination strategies based on mechanical ventilation or air purification.

Can Exhaled Carbon Monoxide Be Used as a Marker of Exposure? A Cross-Sectional Study in Young Adults.

Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a major public health issue worldwide. People are exposed to CO in their daily lives, with one of the common sources of CO being cigarette smoking. Inhalation of CO leads to elevated carboxyhaemoglobin (COHb) levels in the blood and also in exhaled CO concentration. Several factors have been shown to affect COHb concentration and COHb half-life. However, factors affecting exhaled CO concentration and exhaled CO half-life are not well understood. The present study aimed to investigate the potential factors related to baseline exhaled CO concentration and exhaled CO half-life among smokers. A cross-sectional study was conducted between 26 January and 30 June 2019, and young adults were recruited into the study. A total of 74 participants (mean age: 27.1 years, 71.6% males and 28.4% females) attended the study. They were invited to complete a questionnaire, including demographic, physiological, and behavioural factors. Then, exhaled CO measurements were taken. These measurements were taken before and after smoking a single cigarette for smokers and only once for non-smokers. The average baseline exhaled CO concentration was 6.9 ± 4.9 ppm for smokers and 1.9 ± 0.5 ppm for non-smokers. The mean of exhaled CO half-life was around 273.3 min (4.6 h) for smokers. No difference was seen in exhaled CO half-life between light smokers and heavy smokers in the smoking group. Gender and cigarettes smoked weekly affected baseline exhaled CO in smokers. Even though height seemed to positively associate with exhaled CO half-life, the relationship disappeared when adjusting by gender and weight. Therefore, exhaled CO could be used as a marker of CO exposure, but we cannot ignore the factors mentioned in the study. For future study, considering factors related to smoking habits and smoking style are recommended as these may affect total inhaled CO.

Reduction in Blood Lead Concentration in Children across the Republic of Georgia following Interventions to Address Widespread Exceedance of Reference Value in 2019.

In recent years, reports of lead contamination have dramatically increased in Georgia. Given concerns about the exposure of children to lead (Pb), the National Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS-2018) included a blood sampling component. The results showed that 41% of the children that participated had blood Pb levels (BLL) ≥ 5 µg/dL and that BLL in children living in Western Georgia were higher than those in Eastern regions. In response to these findings, NCDC implemented written and verbal advice to the families of children who participated in the MICS-2018 on how to reduce Pb exposure. From August 2019 onwards, the state program of clinical follow-up was implemented. The design of this study was a longitudinal study. The intervention of interest was the public health advice and medical follow-up, and the outcome was defined as the difference in BLL between the MICS-2018 survey and the state program follow-up. We observed a significant overall reduction in median BLL between MICS-2018 and state program follow-up in both August 2019 and the latest results (until December 2019). However, we did not observe any significant further reduction between August and the most recent BLL results. In the Georgian setting, written and verbal communication targeting individual households, alongside home visits to the most exposed, effectively reduced BLL in children.

Perfluoroalkyl substances and immune cell counts in adults from the Mid-Ohio Valley (USA).

BACKGROUND: Although perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) may be immunotoxic, evidence for this in humans is scarce. We studied the association between 4 PFASs (perfluorohexane sulfonate [PFHxS], perfluorooctanoic acid [PFOA], perfluorooctane sulfonate [PFOS] and perfluorononanoic acid [PFNA]) and circulating levels of several types of immune cells. METHODS: Serum PFASs and white blood cell types were measured in 42,782 (2005-2006) and 526 (2010) adults from an area with PFOA drinking water contamination in the Mid-Ohio Valley (USA). Additionally, the major lymphocyte subsets were measured in 2010. Ln(cell counts) and percentages of cell counts were regressed on serum PFAS concentrations (ln or percentiles). Adjusted results were expressed as the percentage difference (95% CI) per interquartile range (IQR) increment of each PFAS concentration. RESULTS: Generally positive monotonic associations between total lymphocytes and PFHxS, PFOA, and PFOS were found in both surveys (difference range: 1.12-7.33% for count and 0.36-1.77 for percentage, per PFAS IQR increment), and were stronger for PFHxS. These associations were reflected in lymphocyte subset counts but not percentages, with PFHxS positively and monotonically associated with T, B, and natural killer (NK) cell counts (range: 5.51-8.62%), PFOA and PFOS with some T-cell phenotypes, and PFOS with NK cells (range: 3.12-12.21%), the associations being monotonic in some cases. Neutrophils, particularly percentage (range: -1.74 to -0.36), showed decreasing trends associated with PFASs. Findings were less consistent for monocytes and eosinophils. CONCLUSION: These results suggest an association between PFHxS and, less consistently, for PFOA and PFOS, and total lymphocytes (although the magnitudes of the differences were small). The increase in absolute lymphocyte count appeared to be evenly distributed across lymphocyte subsets since associations with their percentages were not significant.

On the importance of primary and community healthcare in relation to global health and environmental threats: lessons from the COVID-19 crisis.

In the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that primary healthcare systems play a critical role in clinical care, such as patient screening, triage, physical and psychological support and also in promoting good community advice and awareness in coordination with secondary healthcare and preventive care. Because of the role of social and environmental factors in COVID-19 transmission and burden of disease, it is essential to ensure that there is adequate coordination of population-based health services and public health interventions. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the primary and community healthcare (P&CHC) system's weaknesses worldwide. In many instances, P&CHC played only a minor role, the emphasis being on hospital and intensive care beds. This was compounded by political failures, in supporting local community resilience. Placing community building, social cohesion and resilience at the forefront of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis can help align solutions that provide a vision of 'planetary health'. This can be achieved by involving local well-being and participation in the face of any pervasive health and environmental crisis, including other epidemics and large-scale ecological crises. This paper proposes that P&CHC should take on two critical roles: first, to support local problem-solving efforts and to serve as a partner in innovative approaches to safeguarding community well-being; and second, to understand the local environment and health risks in the context of the global health perspective. We see this as an opportunity of immediate value and broad consequence beyond the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Exposure to indoor and outdoor air pollution from solid fuel combustion and respiratory outcomes in children in developed countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Epidemiological studies have shown a positive association between exposure to outdoor and indoor solid fuel combustion and adverse health effects. We reviewed the epidemiological evidence from Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand on the association between outdoor and indoor exposure to solid fuel combustion and respiratory outcomes in children. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using random-effects models. We identified 74 articles. Due to limited evidence on other exposures and outcomes, we performed meta-analyses on the association between indoor wood burning exposure and respiratory outcomes. The RR for the highest vs the lowest category of indoor wood exposure was 0.90 (95% CI 0.77-1.05) considering asthma as an outcome. The corresponding pooled RRs for lower respiratory infection (LRI) and upper respiratory infection (URI) were 1.11 (95% CI 0.88, 1.41) and 1.11 (95% CI 0.85, 1.44) respectively. No association was found between indoor wood burning exposure and risk of wheeze and cough. Inconsistent and limited results were found considering the relationship between indoor wood burning exposure and other respiratory outcomes (rhinitis and hay fever, influenza) as well as indoor coal burning exposure and respiratory outcomes in children. Results from epidemiological studies that evaluated the relationship between the exposure to outdoor emissions derived from indoor combustion of solid fuels are too limited to allow firm conclusions. We found no association between indoor wood burning exposure and risk of asthma. A slight, but not significant, increased risk of LRI and URI was identified, although the available evidence is limited. Epidemiological studies evaluating the relationship between indoor coal burning exposure and respiratory outcomes, as well as, studies considering exposure to outdoor solid fuels, are too limited to draw any firm conclusions.

Erratum: Paolo Lauriola et al., Advancing Global Health through Environmental and Public Health Tracking, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 1976.

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A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model.

Both climate change and migration present key concerns for global health progress. Despite this, a transparent method for identifying and understanding the relationship between climate change, migration and other contextual factors remains a knowledge gap. Existing conceptual models are useful in understanding the complexities of climate migration, but provide varying degrees of applicability to quantitative studies, resulting in non-homogenous transferability of knowledge in this important area. This paper attempts to provide a critical review of climate migration literature, as well as presenting a new conceptual model for the identification of the drivers of migration in the context of climate change. It focuses on the interactions and the dynamics of drivers over time, space and society. Through systematic, pan-disciplinary and homogenous application of theory to different geographical contexts, we aim to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on migration. A brief case study of Malawi is provided to demonstrate how this global conceptual model can be applied into local contextual scenarios. In doing so, we hope to provide insights that help in the more homogenous applications of conceptual frameworks for this area and more generally.