Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas.

National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country's species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in environmental suitability (i.e., how well environmental conditions explain the presence of a species) of 49 Canadian national parks during summer and winter for 434 bird species under a 2°C warming scenario, anticipated to occur in Canada around the mid-21st century. We compared these to existing species distributions in the 2010s, and classified suitability projections for each species at each park as potential extirpation, worsening, stable, improving, or potential colonisation. Across all parks, and both seasons, 70% of the projections indicate change, including a 25% turnover in summer assemblages and 30% turnover in winter assemblages. The majority of parks are projected to have increases in species richness and functional traits in winter, compared to a mix of increases and decreases in both in summer. However, some changes are expected to vary by region, such as Arctic region parks being likely to experience the most potential colonisation, while some of the Mixedwood Plains and Atlantic Maritime region parks may experience the greatest turnover and potential extirpation in summer if management actions are not taken to mitigate some of these losses. Although uncertainty exists around the precise rate and impacts of climate change, our results indicate that conservation practices that assume stationarity of environmental conditions will become untenable. We propose general guidance to help managers adapt their conservation actions to consider the potentially substantive changes in bird assemblages that are projected, including managing for persistence and change.

Towards reconciliation of the four world bird lists: hotspots of disagreement in taxonomy of raptors.

There are currently four world bird lists referenced by different stakeholders including governments, academic journals, museums and citizen scientists. Consolidation of these lists is a conservation and research priority. In reconciling lists, care must be taken to ensure agreement in taxonomic concepts-the actual groups of individual organisms circumscribed by a given scientific epithet. Here, we compare species-level taxonomic concepts for raptors across the four lists, highlighting areas of disagreement. Of the 665 species-level raptor taxa observed at least once among the four lists, only 453 (68%) were consistent across all four lists. The Howard and Moore Checklist of the Birds of the World contains the fewest raptor species (528), whereas the International Ornithological Community World Bird List contains the most (580) and these two lists are in the most disagreement. Of the disagreements, 67% involved owls, and Indonesia was the country containing the most disagreed upon species (169). Finally, we calculated the amount of species-level agreement across lists for each avian order and found raptor orders spread throughout the rankings of agreement. Our results emphasize the need to reconcile the four world bird lists for all avian orders, highlight broad disagreements across lists and identify hotspots of disagreement for raptors, in particular.

The tempo and mode of the taxonomic correction process: How taxonomists have corrected and recorrected North American bird species over the last 127 years.

While studies of taxonomy usually focus on species description, there is also a taxonomic correction process that retests and updates existing species circumscriptions on the basis of new evidence. These corrections may themselves be subsequently retested and recorrected. We studied this correction process by using the Check-List of North and Middle American Birds, a well-known taxonomic checklist that spans 130 years. We identified 142 lumps and 95 splits across sixty-three versions of the Check-List and found that while lumping rates have markedly decreased since the 1970s, splitting rates are accelerating. We found that 74% of North American bird species recognized today have never been corrected (i.e., lumped or split) over the period of the checklist, while 16% have been corrected exactly once and 10% have been corrected twice or more. Since North American bird species are known to have been extensively lumped in the first half of the 20th century with the advent of the biological species concept, we determined whether most splits seen today were the result of those lumps being recorrected. We found that 5% of lumps and 23% of splits fully reverted previous corrections, while a further 3% of lumps and 13% of splits are partial reversions. These results show a taxonomic correction process with moderate levels of recorrection, particularly of previous lumps. However, 81% of corrections do not revert any previous corrections, suggesting that the majority result in novel circumscriptions not previously recognized by the Check-List. We could find no order or family with a significantly higher rate of correction than any other, but twenty-two genera as currently recognized by the AOU do have significantly higher rates than others. Given the currently accelerating rate of splitting, prediction of the end-point of the taxonomic recorrection process is difficult, and many entirely new taxonomic concepts are still being, and likely will continue to be, proposed and further tested.

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration) to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling) to reduce the probability that individuals will be detected on more than one occasion.

Avibase - a database system for managing and organizing taxonomic concepts.

Scientific names of biological entities offer an imperfect resolution of the concepts that they are intended to represent. Often they are labels applied to entities ranging from entire populations to individual specimens representing those populations, even though such names only unambiguously identify the type specimen to which they were originally attached. Thus the real-life referents of names are constantly changing as biological circumscriptions are redefined and thereby alter the sets of individuals bearing those names. This problem is compounded by other characteristics of names that make them ambiguous identifiers of biological concepts, including emendations, homonymy and synonymy. Taxonomic concepts have been proposed as a way to address issues related to scientific names, but they have yet to receive broad recognition or implementation. Some efforts have been made towards building systems that address these issues by cataloguing and organizing taxonomic concepts, but most are still in conceptual or proof-of-concept stage. We present the on-line database Avibase as one possible approach to organizing taxonomic concepts. Avibase has been successfully used to describe and organize 844,000 species-level and 705,000 subspecies-level taxonomic concepts across every major bird taxonomic checklist of the last 125 years. The use of taxonomic concepts in place of scientific names, coupled with efficient resolution services, is a major step toward addressing some of the main deficiencies in the current practices of scientific name dissemination and use.

Seasonal variation in growth of greater snow goose goslings: the role of food supply.

Even though growth rate is an important fitness component, it is still controversial to what extent parent birds adjust the timing of offspring hatch to natural variations in food supply to maximize offspring growth. We studied the role of food availability in explaining inter- and intra-seasonal variation of growth rate in goslings of greater snow geese over 5 years. The peak of hatching generally coincided with the peak of food availability. However, early-hatched goslings usually grew faster than birds hatched at the peak, which in␣turn grew faster than late-hatched goslings, although this phenomenon was not observed in all years. There was considerable variation in growth rate among the five years, the smallest goslings produced in the best year (1991) being larger than the largest goslings of the poorest year (1994). We developed three indices of food availability, based on the cumulative availability of plant biomass and nitrogen content during the growth period, and showed that the cumulative exposure to nitrogen biomass explained up to 43% of variation (intra- and inter-annual) in body size just before fledging. In years with good feeding conditions, early-hatched goslings had access to more nitrogen during their growing period than those hatching on or after the peak and they grew faster. In years of lower food availability, early-hatched goslings had no detectable advantage over peak- or late-hatched birds for access to protein-rich food and no seasonal decline in growth rate was observed. These results confirm the critical role of food supply in the seasonal variation of growth rate in Arctic-nesting geese.