Awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension among women at risk or living with HIV in the US South: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: Timely control of hypertension is vital to prevent comorbidities. We evaluated the association of race/ethnicity and HIV infection with incident hypertension outcomes, including awareness, treatment, and control. DESIGN: We evaluated cisgender women living with HIV and sociodemographically matched women living without HIV recruited into four Southern sites of the Women's Interagency HIV Study (2013-2019). METHODS: We calculated measurements of the time to four events or censoring: incident hypertension, hypertension awareness, hypertension treatment, and hypertension control. Hazard ratios for race/ethnicity and HIV status were calculated for each outcome using Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical risk factors. RESULTS: Among 712 women, 56% were hypertensive at baseline. Forty-five percent of the remaining women who were normotensive at baseline developed incident hypertension during follow-up. Non-Hispanic White and Hispanic women had faster time to hypertension control compared to non-Hispanic Black women (p = 0.01). In fully adjusted models, women living with HIV who were normotensive at baseline had faster time to treatment compared to normotensive women living without HIV (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In our study of women in the US South, non-Hispanic Black women became aware of their hypertension diagnosis more quickly than non-Hispanic White and Hispanic women but were slower to control their hypertension. Additionally, women living with HIV more quickly treated and controlled their hypertension compared to women living without HIV.

Association of Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor-Based Antiretroviral Therapy with Blood Pressure and Sustained Hypertension in People with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) are a commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) class in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and associated with weight gain. We studied the association of INSTI-based ART with systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP). METHODS: We recruited 50 people taking INSTI-based ART and 40 people taking non-INSTI-based ART with HIV and hypertension from the University of Alabama at Birmingham HIV clinic. Office BP was measured unattended using an automated (AOBP) device. Awake, asleep and 24-hour BP were measured through ambulatory BP monitoring. Among participants with SBP ≥130 mmHg or DBP≥80 mmHg on AOBP, sustained hypertension was defined as awake SBP≥130 mmHg or DBP≥80 mmHg. RESULTS: Mean SBP and DBP was higher among participants taking INSTI-based versus non-INSTI-based ART (AOBP-SBP/DBP: 144.7/83.8 versus 135.3/79.3 mmHg; awake-SBP/DBP: 143.2/80.9 versus 133.4/76.3 mmHg; asleep-SBP/DBP: 133.3/72.9 versus 120.3/65.4 mmHg; 24-hour-SBP/DBP: 140.4/78.7 versus 130.0/73.7 mmHg). After multivariable adjustment, AOBP, awake, asleep and 24-hour SBP was 12.5 (95%CI 5.0-20.1), 9.8 (95%CI 3.6-16.0), 10.4 (95%CI 2.0-18.9), and 9.8 (95%CI 4.2-15.4) mmHg higher among those taking INSTI-based versus non-INSTI-based ART, respectively. AOBP, awake, asleep and 24-hour DBP was 7.5 (95%CI 0.3-14.6), 6.1 (95%CI 0.3-11.8), 7.5 (95%CI 1.4-13.6), and 6.1 (95%CI 0.9-11.3) mmHg higher among those taking INSTI-based versus non-INSTI-based ART after multivariable adjustment. All participants had SBP ≥130 mmHg or DBP≥80 mmHg on AOBP and 97.9% and 65.7% of participants taking INSTI-based and non-INSTI-based ART had sustained hypertension, respectively. CONCLUSION: INSTI-based ART was associated with higher SBP and DBP than non-INSTI-based ART.

Cardiometabolic Disease Staging and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event Prediction in 2 Prospective Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Cardiometabolic risk prediction models that incorporate metabolic syndrome traits to predict cardiovascular outcomes may help identify high-risk populations early in the progression of cardiometabolic disease. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine whether a modified cardiometabolic disease staging (CMDS) system, a validated diabetes prediction model, predicts major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: We developed a predictive model using data accessible in clinical practice [fasting glucose, blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, triglycerides, smoking status, diabetes status, hypertension medication use] from the REGARDS (REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke) study to predict MACE [cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and/or nonfatal stroke]. Predictive performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves, mean squared errors, misclassification, and area under the curve (AUC) statistics. RESULTS: Among 20,234 REGARDS participants with no history of stroke or myocardial infarction (mean age 64 ± 9.3 years, 58% female, 41% non-Hispanic Black, and 18% diabetes), 2,695 developed incident MACE (13.3%) during a median 10-year follow-up. The CMDS development model in REGARDS for MACE had an AUC of 0.721. Our CMDS model performed similarly to both the ACC/AHA 10-year risk estimate (AUC 0.721 vs 0.716) and the Framingham risk score (AUC 0.673). CONCLUSIONS: The CMDS predicted the onset of MACE with good predictive ability and performed similarly or better than 2 commonly known cardiovascular disease prediction risk tools. These data underscore the importance of insulin resistance as a cardiovascular disease risk factor and that CMDS can be used to identify individuals at high risk for progression to cardiovascular disease.

Cardiovascular Burden of the V142I Transthyretin Variant.

Importance: Individual cohort studies concur that the amyloidogenic V142I variant of the transthyretin (TTR) gene, present in 3% to 4% of US Black individuals, increases heart failure (HF) and mortality risk. Precisely defining carrier risk across relevant clinical outcomes and estimating population burden of disease are important given established and emerging targeted treatments. Objectives: To better define the natural history of disease in carriers across mid to late life, assess variant modifiers, and estimate cardiovascular burden to the US population. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 23 338 self-reported Black participants initially free from HF were included in 4 large observational studies across the US (mean [SD], 15.5 [8.2] years of follow-up). Data analysis was performed between May 2023 and February 2024. Exposure: V142I carrier status (n = 754, 3.2%). Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalizations for HF (including subtypes of reduced and preserved ejection fraction) and all-cause mortality. Outcomes were analyzed by generating 10-year hazard ratios for each age between 50 and 90 years. Using actuarial methods, mean survival by carrier status was estimated and applied to the 2022 US population using US Census data. Results: Among the 23 338 participants, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 62 (9) years and 76.7% were women. Ten-year carrier risk increased for HF hospitalization by age 63 years, predominantly driven by HF with reduced ejection fraction, and 10-year all-cause mortality risk increased by age 72 years. Only age (but not sex or other select variables) modified risk with the variant, with estimated reductions in longevity ranging from 1.9 years (95% CI, 0.6-3.1) at age 50 to 2.8 years (95% CI, 2.0-3.6) at age 81. Based on these data, 435 851 estimated US Black carriers between ages 50 and 95 years are projected to cumulatively lose 957 505 years of life (95% CI, 534 475-1 380 535) due to the variant. Conclusions and Relevance: Among self-reported Black individuals, male and female V142I carriers faced similar and substantial risk for HF hospitalization, predominantly with reduced ejection fraction, and death, with steep age-dependent penetrance. Delineating the individual contributions of, and complex interplay among, the V142I variant, ancestry, the social construct of race, and biological or social determinants of health to cardiovascular disease merits further investigation.

Why location matters: associations between county-level characteristics and availability of National Cancer Oncology Research Program and National Cancer Institute sites.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients with cancer seek care at community oncology sites; however, most clinical trials are available at National Cancer Institute (NCI)-designated sites. Although the NCI National Cancer Oncology Research Program (NCORP) was designed to address this problem, little is known about the county-level characteristics of NCORP site locations. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis determined the association between availability of NCORP or NCI sites and county-level characteristic theme percentile scores from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index themes. Health Resources and Services Administration's Area Health Resource Files were used to determine contiguous counties. We estimated risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using modified Poisson regression models to evaluate the association between county-level characteristics and site availability within singular and singular and contiguous counties. RESULTS: Of 3141 included counties, 14% had an NCORP, 2% had an NCI, and 1% had both sites. Among singular counties, for a standard deviation increase in the racial and ethnic theme score, there was a 22% higher likelihood of NCORP site availability (95% CI = 1.10 to 1.36); for a standard deviation increase in the socioeconomic status theme score, there was a 24% lower likelihood of NCORP site availability (95% CI = 0.67 to 0.87). Associations were of smaller magnitude when including contiguous counties. NCI sites were located in more vulnerable counties. CONCLUSIONS: NCORP sites were more often in racially diverse counties and less often in socioeconomically vulnerable counties. Research is needed to understand how clinical trial representation will increase if NCORP sites strategically increase their locations in more vulnerable counties.

Development and validation of mortality prediction models based on the social determinants of health.

BACKGROUND: There is no standardised approach to screening adults for social risk factors. The goal of this study was to develop mortality risk prediction models based on the social determinants of health (SDoH) for clinical risk stratification. METHODS: Data were used from REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, a national, population-based, longitudinal cohort of black and white Americans aged ≥45 recruited between 2003 and 2007. Analysis was limited to participants with available SDoH and mortality data (n=20 843). All-cause mortality, available through 31 December 2018, was modelled using Cox proportional hazards with baseline individual, area-level and business-level SDoH as predictors. The area-level Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was included for comparison. All models were adjusted for age, sex and sampling region and underwent internal split-sample validation. RESULTS: The baseline prediction model including only age, sex and REGARDS sampling region had a c-statistic of 0.699. An individual-level SDoH model (Model 1) had a higher c-statistic than the SVI (0.723 vs 0.708, p<0.001) in the testing set. Sequentially adding area-level SDoH (c-statistic 0.723) and business-level SDoH (c-statistics 0.723) to Model 1 had minimal improvement in model discrimination. Structural racism variables were associated with all-cause mortality for black participants but did not improve model discrimination compared with Model 1 (p=0.175). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, SDoH can improve mortality prediction over 10 years relative to a baseline model and have the potential to identify high-risk patients for further evaluation or intervention if validated externally.

Regional and rural-urban patterns in the prevalence of diagnosed hypertension among older U.S. adults with diabetes, 2005-2017.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension prevalence among the overall US adult population has been relatively stable during the last two decades. However, whether this stabilization has occurred across rural-urban communities and across different geographic regions is unknown, particularly among older adults with diabetes who are likely to have concomitant cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: This serial cross-sectional analysis used the 5% national sample of Medicare administrative claims data (n = 3,516,541) to examine temporal trends (2005-2017) in diagnosed hypertension among older adults with diabetes, across urban-rural communities and US census regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). Joinpoint regression was used to obtain annual percent change (APC) in hypertension prevalence across rural-urban communities and geographic regions, and multivariable adjusted regression was used to assess associations between rural-urban communities and hypertension prevalence. RESULTS: The APC in the prevalence of hypertension was higher during 2005-2010, and there was a slowdown in the increase during 2011-2017 across all regions, with significant variations across rural-urban communities within each of the regions. In the regression analysis, in the adjusted model, older adults living in non-core (most rural) areas in the Midwest (PR = 0.988, 95% CI: 0.981-0.995) and West (PR = 0.935, 95% CI: 0.923-0.946) had lower hypertension prevalence than their regional counterparts living in large central metro areas. CONCLUSIONS: Although the magnitudes of these associations are small, differences in hypertension prevalence across rural-urban areas and geographic regions may have implications for targeted interventions to improve chronic disease prevention and management.

Population-average mediation analysis for zero-inflated count outcomes.

Mediation analysis is an increasingly popular statistical method for explaining causal pathways to inform intervention. While methods have increased, there is still a dearth of robust mediation methods for count outcomes with excess zeroes. Current mediation methods addressing this issue are computationally intensive, biased, or challenging to interpret. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new mediation methodology for zero-inflated count outcomes using the marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) model and the counterfactual approach to mediation. This novel work gives population-average mediation effects whose variance can be estimated rapidly via delta method. This methodology is extended to cases with exposure-mediator interactions. We apply this novel methodology to explore if diabetes diagnosis can explain BMI differences in healthcare utilization and test model performance via simulations comparing the proposed MZIP method to existing zero-inflated and Poisson methods. We find that our proposed method minimizes bias and computation time compared to alternative approaches while allowing for straight-forward interpretations.

Characteristics and determinants of pulmonary long COVID.

BACKGROUNDPersistent cough and dyspnea are prominent features of postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (also termed "long COVID"); however, physiologic measures and clinical features associated with these pulmonary symptoms remain poorly defined. Using longitudinal pulmonary function testing (PFT) and CT imaging, this study aimed to identify the characteristics and determinants of pulmonary long COVID.METHODSThis single-center retrospective study included 1,097 patients with clinically defined long COVID characterized by persistent pulmonary symptoms (dyspnea, cough, and chest discomfort) lasting for 1 or more months after resolution of primary COVID infection.RESULTSAfter exclusion, a total of 929 patients with post-COVID pulmonary symptoms and PFTs were stratified as diffusion impairment and pulmonary restriction, as measured by percentage predicted diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and total lung capacity (TLC). Longitudinal evaluation revealed diffusion impairment (DLCO ≤ 80%) and pulmonary restriction (TLC ≤ 80%) in 51% of the cohort overall (n = 479). In multivariable modeling regression analysis, invasive mechanical ventilation during primary infection conferred the greatest increased odds of developing pulmonary long COVID with diffusion impairment and restriction (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 9.89, 95% CI 3.62-26.9]). Finally, a subanalysis of CT imaging identified radiographic evidence of fibrosis in this patient population.CONCLUSIONLongitudinal PFTs revealed persistent diffusion-impaired restriction as a key feature of pulmonary long COVID. These results emphasize the importance of incorporating PFTs into routine clinical practice for evaluation of long COVID patients with prolonged pulmonary symptoms. Subsequent clinical trials should leverage combined symptomatic and quantitative PFT measurements for more targeted enrollment of pulmonary long COVID patients.FUNDINGNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (AI156898, K08AI129705), National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL153113, OTA21-015E, HL149944), and the COVID-19 Urgent Research Response Fund at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Characteristics and Determinants of Pulmonary Long COVID.

RATIONALE: Persistent cough and dyspnea are prominent features of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (termed 'Long COVID'); however, physiologic measures and clinical features associated with these pulmonary symptoms remain poorly defined. OBJECTIVES: Using longitudinal pulmonary function testing (PFTs) and CT imaging, this study aimed to identify the characteristics and determinants of pulmonary Long COVID. METHODS: The University of Alabama at Birmingham Pulmonary Long COVID cohort was utilized to characterize lung defects in patients with persistent pulmonary symptoms after resolution primary COVID infection. Longitudinal PFTs including total lung capacity (TLC) and diffusion limitation of carbon monoxide (DLCO) were used to evaluate restriction and diffusion impairment over time in this cohort. Analysis of chest CT imaging was used to phenotype the pulmonary Long COVID pathology. Risk factors linked to development of pulmonary Long COVID were estimated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Longitudinal evaluation 929 patients with post-COVID pulmonary symptoms revealed diffusion impairment (DLCO ≤80%) and restriction (TLC ≤80%) in 51% of the cohort (n=479). In multivariable logistic regression analysis (adjusted odds ratio; aOR, 95% confidence interval [CI]), invasive mechanical ventilation during primary infection conferred the greatest increased odds of developing pulmonary Long COVID with diffusion impaired restriction (aOR=10.9 [4.09-28.6]). Finally, a sub-analysis of CT imaging identified evidence of fibrosis in this population. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent diffusion impaired restriction was identified as a key feature of pulmonary Long COVID. Subsequent clinical trials should leverage combined symptomatic and quantitative PFT measurements for more targeted enrollment of pulmonary Long COVID patients.

Association Between Pharmacy Proximity With Cardiovascular Medication Use and Risk Factor Control in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Poor neighborhood-level access to health care, including community pharmacies, contributes to cardiovascular disparities in the United States. The authors quantified the association between pharmacy proximity, antihypertensive and statin use, and blood pressure (BP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) among a large, diverse US cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cross-sectional analysis of Black and White participants in the REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) study during 2013 to 2016 was conducted. The authors designated pharmacy proximity by census tract using road network analysis with population-weighted centroids within a 10-minute drive time, with 5- and 20-minute sensitivity analyses. Pill bottle review measured medication use, and BP and LDL-C were assessed using standard methods. Poisson regression was used to quantify the association between pharmacy proximity with medication use and BP control, and linear regression for LDL-C. Among 16 150 REGARDS participants between 2013 and 2016, 8319 (51.5%) and 8569 (53.1%) had an indication for antihypertensive and statin medication, respectively, and pharmacy proximity data. The authors did not find a consistent association between living in a census tract with higher pharmacy proximity and antihypertensive medication use, BP control, or statin medication use and LDL-C levels, regardless of whether the area was rural, suburban, or urban. Results were similar among the 5- and 20-minute drive-time analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Living in a low pharmacy proximity census tract may be associated with antihypertensive and statin medication use, or with BP control and LDL-C levels. Although, in this US cohort, outcomes were similar for adults living in high or low pharmacy proximity census tracts.

Impact of Chronic HIV Infection on Acute Immune Responses to SARS-CoV-2.

ABSTRACT: There is mounting evidence that HIV infection is a risk factor for severe presentations of COVID-19. We hypothesized that the persistent immune activation associated with chronic HIV infection contributes to worsened outcomes during acute COVID-19. The goals of this study were to provide an in-depth analysis of immune response to acute COVID-19 and investigate relationships between immune responses and clinical outcomes in an unvaccinated, sex- and race-matched cohort of people with HIV (PWH, n = 20) and people without HIV (PWOH, n = 41). We performed flow cytometric analyses on peripheral blood mononuclear cells from PWH and PWOH experiencing acute COVID-19 (≤21-day postsymptom onset). PWH were younger (median 52 vs 65 years) and had milder COVID-19 (40% vs 88% hospitalized) compared with PWOH. Flow cytometry panels included surface markers for immune cell populations, activation and exhaustion surface markers (with and without SARS-CoV-2-specific antigen stimulation), and intracellular cytokine staining. We observed that PWH had increased expression of activation (eg, CD137 and OX40) and exhaustion (eg, PD1 and TIGIT) markers as compared to PWOH during acute COVID-19. When analyzing the impact of COVID-19 severity, we found that hospitalized PWH had lower nonclassical (CD16 + ) monocyte frequencies, decreased expression of TIM3 on CD4 + T cells, and increased expression of PDL1 and CD69 on CD8 + T cells. Our findings demonstrate that PWH have increased immune activation and exhaustion as compared to a cohort of predominately older, hospitalized PWOH and raises questions on how chronic immune activation affects acute disease and the development of postacute sequelae.

Neighborhood Disadvantage and Risk of Heart Failure: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) affects >6 million US adults, with recent increases in HF hospitalizations. We aimed to investigate the association between neighborhood disadvantage and incident HF events and potential differences by diabetes status. METHODS: We included 23 645 participants from the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke), a prospective cohort of Black and White adults aged ≥45 years living in the continental United States (baseline 2005-2007). Neighborhood disadvantage was assessed using a Z score of 6 census tract variables (2000 US Census) and categorized as quartiles. Incident HF hospitalizations or HF-related deaths through 2017 were adjudicated. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to examine the association between neighborhood disadvantage and incident HF. Heterogeneity by diabetes was assessed using an interaction term. RESULTS: The mean age was 64.4 years, 39.5% were Black adults, 54.9% females, and 18.8% had diabetes. During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, there were 1125 incident HF events with an incidence rate of 3.3 (quartile 1), 4.7 (quartile 2), 5.2 (quartile 3), and 6.0 (quartile 4) per 1000 person-years. Compared to adults living in the most advantaged neighborhoods (quartile 1), those living in neighborhoods in quartiles 2, 3, and 4 (most disadvantaged) had 1.30 (95% CI, 1.06-1.60), 1.36 (95% CI, 1.11-1.66), and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.18-1.79) times greater hazard of incident HF even after accounting for known confounders. This association did not significantly differ by diabetes status (interaction P=0.59). For adults with diabetes, the adjusted incident HF hazards comparing those in quartile 4 versus quartile 1 was 1.34 (95% CI, 0.92-1.96), and it was 1.50 (95% CI, 1.16-1.94) for adults without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: In this large contemporaneous prospective cohort, neighborhood disadvantage was associated with an increased risk of incident HF events. This increase in HF risk did not differ by diabetes status. Addressing social, economic, and structural factors at the neighborhood level may impact HF prevention.

Disparities in Hypertension Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, and Control Among Women Living With and Without HIV in the US South.

Background: Hypertension-related diseases are major causes of morbidity among women living with HIV. We evaluated cross-sectional associations of race/ethnicity and HIV infection with hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control. Methods: Among women recruited into Southern sites of the Women's Interagency HIV Study (2013-2015), hypertension was defined as (1) systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg according to clinical guidelines when data were collected, (2) self-report of hypertension, or (3) use of antihypertensive medication. Awareness was defined as self-report of hypertension, and treatment was self-report of any antihypertensive medication use. Blood pressure control was defined as <140/90 mm Hg at baseline. Prevalence ratios for each hypertension outcome were estimated through Poisson regression models with robust variance estimators adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical risk factors. Results: Among 712 women, 56% had hypertension and 83% were aware of their diagnosis. Of those aware, 83% were using antihypertensive medication, and 63% of those treated had controlled hypertension. In adjusted analyses, non-Hispanic White and Hispanic women had 31% and 48% lower prevalence of hypertension than non-Hispanic Black women, respectively. Women living with HIV who had hypertension were 19% (P = .04) more likely to be taking antihypertension medication when compared with women living without HIV. Conclusions: In this study population of women living with and without HIV in the US South, the prevalence of hypertension was lowest among Hispanic women and highest among non-Hispanic Black women. Despite similar hypertension prevalence, women living with HIV were more likely to be taking antihypertensive medication when compared with women living without HIV.

Comparative Discrimination of Life's Simple 7 and Life's Essential 8 to Stratify Cardiovascular Risk: Is the Added Complexity Worth It?

BACKGROUND: Life's Simple 7 (LS7) is an easily calculated and interpreted metric of cardiovascular health based on 7 domains: smoking, diet, physical activity, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and fasting glucose. The Life's Essential 8 (LE8) metric was subsequently introduced, adding sleep metrics and revisions of the previous 7 domains. Although calculating LE8 requires additional information, we hypothesized that it would be a more reliable index of cardiovascular health. METHODS: Both the LS7 and LE8 metrics yield scores with higher values indicating lower risk. These were calculated among 11 609 Black and White participants free of baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study, enrolled in 2003 to 2007, and followed for a median of 13 years. Differences in 10-year risk of incident CVD (coronary heart disease or stroke) were calculated as a function LS7, and LE8 scores were calculated using Kaplan-Meier and proportional hazards analyses. Differences in incident CVD discrimination were quantified by difference in the c-statistic. RESULTS: For both LS7 and LE8, the 10-year risk was approximately 5% for participants around the 99th percentile of scores, and a 4× higher 20% risk for participants around the first percentile. Comparing LS7 to LE8, 10-year risk was nearly identical for individuals at the same relative position in score distribution. For example, the "cluster" of 2013 participants with an LS7 score of 7 was at the 35.8th percentile in distribution of LS7 scores, and had an estimated 10-year CVD risk of 8.4% (95% CI, 7.2%-9.8%). In a similar location in the LE8 distribution, the 1457 participants with an LE8 score of 60±2.5 at the 39.4th percentile of LE8 scores had a 10-year risk of CVD of 8.5% (95% CI, 7.1%-10.1%), similar to the cluster defined by LS7. The age-race-sex adjusted c-statistic of the LS7 model was 0.691 (95% CI, 0.667-0.705), and 0.695 for LE8 (95% CI, 0.681-0.709) (P for difference, 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: Both LS7 and LE8 were associated with incident CVD, with discrimination of the 2 indices practically indistinguishable. As a simpler metric, LS7 may be favored for use by the general population and clinicians.

Application of marginalized zero-inflated models when mediators have excess zeroes.

Mediation analysis has become increasingly popular over the last decade as researchers are interested in assessing mechanistic pathways for intervention. Although available methods have increased, there are still limited options for mediation analysis with zero-inflated count variables where the distribution of response has a "cluster" of data at the zero value (i.e. distribution of number of cigarettes smoked per day, where nonsmokers cluster at zero cigarettes). The currently available methods do not obtain unbiased population average effects of mediation effects. In this paper, we propose an extension of the counterfactual approach to mediation with direct and indirect effects to scenarios where the mediator is a count variable with excess zeroes by utilizing the Marginalized Zero-Inflated Poisson Model (MZIP) for the mediator model. We derive direct and indirect effects for continuous, binary, and count outcomes, as well as adapt to allow mediator-exposure interactions. Our proposed work allows straightforward calculation of direct and indirect effects for the overall population mean values of the mediator, for scenarios in which researchers are interested in generalizing direct and indirect effects to the population. We apply this novel methodology to an application observing how alcohol consumption may explain sex differences in cholesterol and assess model performance via a simulation study comparing the proposed MZIP mediator framework to existing methods for marginal mediator effects.

Treatment Location Variation for Chronic Limb-Threatening Ischemia in Patients With Kidney Failure.

INTRODUCTION: End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is an established risk factor for chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI). Procedural location for ESKD patients has not been well described. This study aims to examine variation in index procedural location in ESKD versus non-ESKD patients undergoing peripheral vascular intervention for CLTI and identify preoperative risk factors for tibial interventions. METHODS: Chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) patients were identified in the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) peripheral vascular intervention dataset. Patient demographics and comorbidities were compared between patients with and without ESKD and those undergoing index tibial versus nontibial interventions. A multivariable logistic regression evaluating risk factors for tibial intervention was conducted. RESULTS: A total of 23,480 procedures were performed on CLTI patients with 13.6% (n = 3154) with ESKD. End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients were younger (66.56 ± 11.68 versus 71.66 ± 12.09 y old, P = 0.019), more often Black (40.6 versus 18.6%, P < 0.001), male (61.2 versus 56.5%, P < 0.001), and diabetic (81.8 versus 60.0%, P < 0.001) than non-ESKD patients. Patients undergoing index tibial interventions had higher rates of ESKD (19.4 versus 10.6%, P < 0.001) and diabetes (73.4 versus 57.5%, P < 0.001) and lower rates of smoking (49.9 versus 73.0%, P < 0.001) than patients with nontibial interventions. ESKD (odds ratio (OR) 1.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52-1.86, P < 0.001), Black race (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09-1.30, P < 0.001), and diabetes (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.71-2.00, P < 0.001) were risk factors for tibial intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ESKD and CLTI have higher rates of diabetes and tibial disease and lower rates of smoking than non-ESKD patients. Tibial disease was associated with ESKD, diabetes, and Black race.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events among adults with high predicted risk without established risk factors.

Objective: Age is the strongest contributor to 10-year predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Some older adults have a predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 %, without established risk factors. We sought to compare ASCVD incidence among adults with predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 %, with and without established ASCVD risk factors, to adults with predicted risk <7.5 %. Methods: We analyzed data from REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study participants, 45-79 years old, without ASCVD or diabetes, not taking statins and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol 70-189 mg/dL. Participants were categorized into 3 groups based on their 10-year predicted ASCVD risk and presence of established risk factors: <7.5 %, ≥7.5 % with established risk factors and ≥7.5 % without established risk factors. Established risk factors included smoking, systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg or antihypertensive medication use, total cholesterol ≥200 mg/dL, or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <50 mg/dL for women (<40 mg/dL for men). Participants were followed for ASCVD events. Results: Among 11,115 participants, 911 incident ASCVD events occurred over a median of 11.1 years. ASCVD incidence rates were 3.6, 12.8, and 9.8 per 1,000 person-years for participants with predicted risk <7.5 %, predicted risk ≥7.5 % with established risk factors and predicted risk ≥7.5 % without established risk factors, respectively. Compared to adults with predicted risk <7.5 %, hazard ratios for incident ASCVD in participants with risk ≥7.5 % with and without established risk factors were 3.58 (95 %CI 3.03 - 4.21) and 2.72 (95 %CI 1.91-3.88), respectively. Conclusions: Adults with a 10-year predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 % but without established risk factors had a high ASCVD incidence.