Effect of a postdischarge virtual ward on readmission or death for high-risk patients: a randomized clinical trial.

IMPORTANCE: Hospital readmissions are common and costly, and no single intervention or bundle of interventions has reliably reduced readmissions. Virtual wards, which use elements of hospital care in the community, have the potential to reduce readmissions, but have not yet been rigorously evaluated. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a virtual ward-a model of care that uses some of the systems of a hospital ward to provide interprofessional care for community-dwelling patients-can reduce the risk of readmission in patients at high risk of readmission or death when being discharged from hospital. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: High-risk adult hospital discharge patients in Toronto were randomly assigned to either the virtual ward or usual care. A total of 1923 patients were randomized during the course of the study: 960 to the usual care group and 963 to the virtual ward group. The first patient was enrolled on June 29, 2010, and follow-up was completed on June 2, 2014. INTERVENTIONS: Patients assigned to the virtual ward received care coordination plus direct care provision (via a combination of telephone, home visits, or clinic visits) from an interprofessional team for several weeks after hospital discharge. The interprofessional team met daily at a central site to design and implement individualized management plans. Patients assigned to usual care typically received a typed, structured discharge summary, prescription for new medications if indicated, counseling from the resident physician, arrangements for home care as needed, and recommendations, appointments, or both for follow-up care with physicians as indicated. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite of hospital readmission or death within 30 days of discharge. Secondary outcomes included nursing home admission and emergency department visits, each of the components of the primary outcome at 30 days, as well as each of the outcomes (including the composite primary outcome) at 90 days, 6 months, and 1 year. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant between-group differences in the primary or secondary outcomes at 30 or 90 days, 6 months, or 1 year. The primary outcome occurred in 203 of 959 (21.2%) of the virtual ward patients and 235 of 956 (24.6%) of the usual care patients (absolute difference, 3.4%; 95% CI, -0.3% to 7.2%; P = .09). There were no statistically significant interactions to indicate that the virtual ward model of care was more or less effective in any of the prespecified subgroups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a diverse group of high-risk patients being discharged from the hospital, we found no statistically significant effect of a virtual ward model of care on readmissions or death at either 30 days or 90 days, 6 months, or 1 year after hospital discharge. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01108172.

The effect of a collaborative pharmacist-hospital care transition program on the likelihood of 30-day readmission.

PURPOSE: The effect of a collaborative pharmacist-hospital care transition program on the likelihood of 30-day readmission was evaluated. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted in two acute care hospitals within the same hospital system in the southeastern United States. One hospital initiated a care transition program in January 2011; the other hospital did not have such a program. All patients who were discharged from either hospital to home from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2011, were included in the study. The two key program components included bedside delivery of postdischarge medications and follow-up telephone calls two to three days after discharge. The likelihood of readmission was assessed using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Over the 2-year study period, 19,659 unique patients had 26,781 qualifying index admissions, 2,523 of which resulted in a readmission within 30 days of discharge. After adjusting for various demographic and clinical characteristics, the usual care group (i.e., patients who did not participate in the program) had nearly twice the odds of readmission within 30 days (odds ratio [OR], 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-2.67), compared with the intervention group (i.e., program participants). For patients age 65 years or older, those in the usual care group had a sixfold increase in the odds of a 30-day readmission (OR, 6.05; 95% CI, 1.92-19.00) relative to those in the intervention group. CONCLUSION: A care transition program was associated with a lower likelihood of readmission and had a greater effect on older patients.

Predictive risk modelling in health: options for New Zealand and Australia.

Predictive risk models (PRMs) are case-finding tools that enable health care systems to identify patients at risk of expensive and potentially avoidable events such as emergency hospitalisation. Examples include the PARR (Patients-at-Risk-of-Rehospitalisation) tool and Combined Predictive Model used by the National Health Service in England. When such models are coupled with an appropriate preventive intervention designed to avert the adverse event, they represent a useful strategy for improving the cost-effectiveness of preventive health care. This article reviews the current knowledge about PRMs and explores some of the issues surrounding the potential introduction of a PRM to a public health system. We make a particular case for New Zealand, but also consider issues that are relevant to Australia.

Counterheroism, common knowledge, and ergonomics: concepts from aviation that could improve patient safety.

CONTEXT: Many safety initiatives have been transferred successfully from commercial aviation to health care. This article develops a typology of aviation safety initiatives, applies this to health care, and proposes safety measures that might be adopted more widely. It then presents an economic framework for determining the likely costs and benefits of different patient safety initiatives. METHODS: This article describes fifteen examples of error countermeasures that are used in public transport aviation, many of which are not routinely used in health care at present. Examples are the sterile cockpit rule, flight envelope protection, the first-names-only rule, and incentivized no-fault reporting. It develops a conceptual schema that is then used to argue why analogous initiatives might be usefully applied to health care and why physicians may resist them. Each example is measured against a set of economic criteria adopted from the taxation literature. FINDINGS: The initiatives considered in the article fall into three themes: safety concepts that seek to downplay the role of heroic individuals and instead emphasize the importance of teams and whole organizations; concepts that seek to increase and apply group knowledge of safety information and values; and concepts that promote safety by design. The salient costs to be considered by organizations wishing to adopt these suggestions are the compliance costs to clinicians, the administration costs to the organization, and the costs of behavioral distortions. CONCLUSIONS: This article concludes that there is a range of safety initiatives used in commercial aviation that could have a positive impact on patient safety, and that adopting such initiatives may alter the safety culture of health care teams. The desirability of implementing each initiative, however, depends on the projected costs and benefits, which must be assessed for each situation.

"Impactibility models": identifying the subgroup of high-risk patients most amenable to hospital-avoidance programs.

CONTEXT: Predictive models can be used to identify people at high risk of unplanned hospitalization, although some of the high-risk patients they identify may not be amenable to preventive care. This study describes the development of "impactibility models," which aim to identify the subset of at-risk patients for whom preventive care is expected to be successful. METHODS: This research used semistructured interviews with representatives of thirty American organizations that build, use, or appraise predictive models for health care. FINDINGS: Impactibility models may refine the output of predictive models by (1) giving priority to patients with diseases that are particularly amenable to preventive care; (2) excluding patients who are least likely to respond to preventive care; or (3) identifying the form of preventive care best matched to each patient's characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Impactibility models could improve the efficiency of hospital-avoidance programs, but they have important implications for equity and access.

Enhancing the sensitivity of a sustained attention task to frontal damage: convergent clinical and functional imaging evidence.

Despite frequent reports of poor concentration following traumatic brain injury, studies have generally failed to find disproportionate time-on-task decrements using vigilance measures in this patient group. Using a rather different definition, neuropsychological and functional imaging research has however linked sustained attention performance to right prefrontal function--a region likely to be compromised by such injuries. These studies have emphasised more transitory lapses of attention during dull and ostensibly unchallenging activities. Here, an existing attention measure was modified to reduce its apparent difficulty or 'challenge'. Compared with the standard task, its capacity to discriminate traumatically head-injured participants from a control group was significantly enhanced. Unlike existing functional imaging studies, that have compared a sustained attention task with a no-task control, in study 2 we used positron emission tomography to contrast the two levels of the same task. Significantly increased blood flow in the dorsolateral region of the right prefrontal cortex was associated with the low challenge condition. While the results are discussed in terms of a frontal system involved in the voluntary maintenance of performance under conditions of low stimulation, alternative accounts in terms of strategy application are considered.

Coffee in the cornflakes: time-of-day as a modulator of executive response control.

Previous self-report based research has revealed a heightened propensity to slips-of-action in the early morning and at the end of the day. Here, we examined performance variability among healthy young adults as a function of time-of-day on a clinical task that is sensitive to absent-minded slips in brain-injured groups. We found significantly higher error rates at 1 pm and 7 pm compared with 1 am and 7 pm, and significant correlations between errors and two subjective sleepiness scales. No circadian modulation of the more routine aspects of the task was observed suggesting some specificity to the effect. Given evidence that the circadian cycle differentially affects different brain regions, and links between sleep deprivation and 'normal' dysexecutive behaviour, examining variation over the course of the day can prove a useful additional methodology in this area