Clinging to the top: natal dispersal tracks climate gradient in a trailing-edge population of a migratory songbird.

PURPOSE: Trailing-edge populations at the low-latitude, receding edge of a shifting range face high extinction risk from climate change unless they are able to track optimal environmental conditions through dispersal. METHODS: We fit dispersal models to the locations of 3165 individually-marked black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) in the southern Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina, USA from 2002 to 2023. Black-throated blue warbler breeding abundance in this population has remained relatively stable at colder and wetter areas at higher elevations but has declined at warmer and drier areas at lower elevations. RESULTS: Median dispersal distance of young warblers was 917 m (range 23-3200 m), and dispersal tended to be directed away from warm and dry locations. In contrast, adults exhibited strong site fidelity between breeding seasons and rarely dispersed more than 100 m (range 10-1300 m). Consequently, adult dispersal kernels were much more compact and symmetric than natal dispersal kernels, suggesting adult dispersal is unlikely a driving force of declines in this population. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that directional natal dispersal may mitigate fitness costs for trailing-edge populations by allowing individuals to track changing climate and avoid warming conditions at warm-edge range boundaries.

Climate-mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core.

Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long-term demography dataset for the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low-elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid-elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid-elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low-elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low-elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor-quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate-mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black-throated blue warblers near the warm-edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

Changing trends in the surgical treatment of Ménière's disease: results of a 10-year survey.

In order to discern trends in surgical procedures used to treat Ménière's disease in the United States during the 1990s, we mailed a questionnaire to 700 members of the American Otological Society and the American Neurotology Society. These physicians were asked about the frequency, results, and complications of surgical procedures for Ménière's disease that they had performed between Jan. 1, 1990, and Dec. 31, 1999. Questionnaires were returned by 137 surgeons (19.6%). Their responses indicated that the number of vestibular neurectomies, labyrinthectomies, and endolymphatic sac surgeries all decreased during 1999. Meanwhile, the use of office-administered intratympanic gentamicin therapy increased rapidly throughout the entire 10-year period, and by 1999 it had become the most frequently used invasive treatment for Ménière's disease. Surgeons now seem to reserve inpatient procedures for cases where intratympanic gentamicin fails to control vertigo.