Optimal starting age of endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer in China: A multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer has been performed in high-risk areas in China for decades, there is limited and inconsistent evidence regarding the starting age for individuals participating in screening. The aim of this study is to investigate the optimal starting age of esophageal cancer screening. METHODS: This study is based on a multicenter prospective cohort consisting 338,017 permanent residents aged 40-69 years in six high-risk areas of esophageal cancer in China. The participation rate, detection rate, hazard ratios (HRs), cumulative incidence and mortality and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated in each age group. Screening burden, benefit and risk were compared among screening strategies with different initiation ages to explore the optimal starting age for population-based screening in high-risk areas. RESULTS: Individuals aged 50-69 had a higher participation rate, a higher detection rate and improved screening effectiveness than those aged 40-49. The endoscopic screening had no significant effect on reducing the incidence of esophageal cancer in individuals under 55 and mortality in individuals under 45. Increasing the starting age to 50 years reduced the screening demand and NNS by 40% and 55%, and resulted in 12% of detectable positive cases, 16% of preventable incident cases, and 14% of preventable deaths being missed. CONCLUSIONS: Postponing the starting age of endoscopic screening to 50 years might yield a more-favorable balance between screening benefit and burden in high- risk areas with limited resources.

Surveillance of premalignant gastric cardia lesions: A population-based prospective cohort study in China.

In our study, we aimed to assess the long-term risk of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) for patients with different histological cardia lesions to inform future guidelines for GCA screening in China. We conducted a population-based prospective study among 9740 subjects who underwent upper endoscopy screening during 2005 to 2009 and followed until December 2017. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of GCA were calculated by the baseline histological diagnoses, and the hazard ratios (HRs), overall and by age and sex, were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models. During a median follow-up of 10 years, we identified 123 new GCA cases (1.26%) and 31 GCA deaths (0.32%). The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of GCA were 128.71/100 000 and 35.69/100 000 person-years, and cumulative incidence rate in patients with cardia high-grade dysplasia (CHGD), cardia low-grade dysplasia (CLGD) and atrophic carditis (AC)/cardia intestinal metaplasia (CIM) was 25%, 3.05% and 1.58%, respectively. The progression rate and cancer risk of GCA increased monotonically with each step in Correa's cascade. Individuals aged 50 to 69 years had 4.4 times higher GCA incidence than those aged 40 to 49 years. Patients with CLGD had a significantly higher 3-year GCA incidence than the normal group, while patients with AC/CIM had a comparable GCA risk during 3-year follow-up but a higher risk at 5-year intervals. Our results suggested a postponed starting age of 50 years for GCA screening, immediate treatment for patients with CHGD, a 3-year surveillance interval for patients with CLGD, and a lengthened surveillance interval of 5 years for patients with AC/CIM.

Effectiveness of one-time endoscopic screening programme in prevention of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China: a multicentre population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening programme in reducing incidence and mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer in high risks areas of China. DESIGN: This multicentre population-based cohort study was conducted in six areas in China from 2005 to 2015. All permanent residents aged 40 to 69 years were identified as target subjects. We refer to those who were invited for screening collectively as the invited group. Of these, we classify those who were invited and undertook endoscopic screening as the screened group and those who were invited but did not accept screening as the non-screened group. Target subjects who were not invited to the screening were assigned to the control group. The effectiveness of the endoscopic screening and screening programme were evaluated by comparing reductions in incidence and mortality from upper gastrointestinal cancer in the screened and invited group with control group. RESULTS: Our cohort analysis included 637 500 people: 299 483 in the control group and 338 017 in the invited to screening group, 113 340 (33.53%) of whom were screened eventually. Compared with subjects in the control group, upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality decreased by 23% (relative risk (RR)=0.77, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.81) and 57% (RR=0.43, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.47) in the screened group, respectively, and by 14% (RR=0.86, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.89) and 31% (RR=0.69, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.72) in the invited group, respectively. CONCLUSION: Among individuals aged 40 to 69 years in high risk areas of upper gastrointestinal cancer, one-time endoscopic screening programme was associated with a significant decrease in upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality.

Esophageal Histological Precursor Lesions and Subsequent 8.5-Year Cancer Risk in a Population-Based Prospective Study in China.

INTRODUCTION: Data on the associations between esophageal histological lesions and risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in general populations are limited. We aimed to investigate these associations in a large Chinese general population to inform future Chinese ESCC screening guidelines. METHODS: We performed endoscopic screening of 21,111 participants aged 40-69 years from 3 high-risk areas of China in 2005-2009, and followed the cohort through 2016. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of ESCC were calculated by baseline histological diagnosis, and hazard ratios of ESCC, overall and by age and sex, were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We identified 143 new ESCC cases (0.68%) and 62 ESCC deaths (0.29%) during a median follow-up of 8.5 years. Increasing grades of squamous dysplasia were associated with the increasing risk of ESCC incidence and mortality. The cumulative ESCC incidence rates for severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ, moderate dysplasia (MD), and mild dysplasia were 15.5%, 4.5%, and 1.4%, respectively. Older individuals (50-69 years) had 3.1 times higher ESCC incidence than younger individuals (40-49 years), and men had 2.4 times higher ESCC incidence than women. DISCUSSION: This study confirmed that increasing grades of squamous dysplasia are associated with increasing risk of ESCC and that severe dysplasia and carcinoma in situ require clinical treatment. This study suggests that in high-risk areas of China, patients with endoscopically worrisome MD should also receive therapy, the first screening can be postponed to 50 years, and endoscopic surveillance intervals for unremarkable MD and mild dysplasia can be lengthened to 3 and 5 years, respectively.

Helicobacter pylori Is Associated With Precancerous and Cancerous Lesions of the Gastric Cardia Mucosa: Results of a Large Population-Based Study in China.

Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is widely accepted to be the most important cause of gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA), while its role in the development of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) is not well-defined. We aimed to investigate current H. pylori infection in relation to the severity of both precancerous and cancerous lesions of the gastric cardia in an Asian population at high risk of GCA. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Linzhou County, Henan Province, China. Two thousand three (2,003) randomly selected participants with data on current H. pylori infection, assayed by 13C-urea breath test (13C-UBT), and a sequence of histological diagnoses of the gastric cardia mucosa were analyzed. Results: Of 2,003 subjects, 828 (41.33%) were currently infected with H. pylori. The prevalence of current H. pylori infection increased with increasing severity of histological lesions, from 34.12% in subjects with normal gastric cardia mucosa to 52.17% in subjects with gastric cardia high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (CHIN)/ gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) (P for trend <0.001). With H. pylori-negative subjects as the reference category, H. pylori-positive subjects had statistically significant elevated adjusted prevalence odds ratios (PORs) for each of the histological lesions. The PORs (95% CI) were 2.15 (1.74-2.64), 3.46 (2.08-5.75), 2.78 (1.90-4.07), and 3.05 (1.30-7.17) for subjects with carditis, cardia intestinal metaplasia (CIM), cardia low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (CLIN), and CHIN/GCA), respectively. The associations remained when subjects with abnormal stomach non-cardia mucosa were excluded. Conclusions: This large epidemiologic study demonstrates a positive association between current H. pylori infection and the severity of both precancerous and cancerous lesions of the gastric cardia in an Asian population at high risk of GCA. These findings suggest that H. pylori infection may play a role throughout both early- and late-stage development of GCA.

The relative survival and cure fraction of gastric cancer estimated through flexible parametric models using data from population-based cancer registration during 2003-2012 in Linzhou, China.

PURPOSE: The proportion of cured gastric cancer patients has drawn the attention of patients, physicians, and healthcare providers after comprehensive prevention and control measures were carried out for several years. Therefore, the relative survival and cure fraction were estimated in our study. METHODS: Population-based cancer registration data were used to estimate survival and cure fraction. A total of 7585 gastric cancer cases (ICD10:C16.0 ~ C16.9) were extracted and included in the final analysis. Cases were diagnosed in 2003-2012 and followed until the end of 2017. Relative survival was calculated as the ratio between the observed survival through the life-table method. The expected survival was estimated by the Ederer II method. The cure fraction was estimated using flexible parametric cure models stratified by age and calendar period when the cases were diagnosed. RESULTS: The 5-year relative survival of cardia gastric cancer increased with the calendar period of 2003-2004, 2005-2006, 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012 (27.5%, 28.3%, 33.5%, 38.2%, and 46.8%, respectively). The increasing trend along with the calendar periods was also observed in cure proportion of cardia gastric cancer (24.8%, 25.2%, 31.7%, 36.0%, and 43.1%, respectively). Notable improvement of cure proportion was observed in the period of 2011-2012, compared with the initial period of 2003-2004. There was an improvement of 79.8% among all gastric cancer subjects, and it was 74.1% and 55.7% in cardia gastric and noncardia gastric cancer subjects, respectively. The median survival of "uncured" patients showed no significant improvement along with the calendar periods in all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Notable improvement of gastric cancer relative survival and cure proportion was observed in Linzhou during 2003-2012.

The improved cure fraction for esophageal cancer in Linzhou city.

BACKGROUND: Survival of esophageal cancer in Linzhou was seen to increase over the past few decades and is higher than the average level of China due to the implementation of comprehensive prevention and control measures. In population-based studies, relative survival is a common index to approximate disease-specific survival. However, the cure fraction maybe great interest to patients and physicians. This study aimed to investigate the cure fraction of esophageal cancer in Linzou city during 2003-2012 with a cure model. METHODS: We carried out a population-based study of 8067 esophageal cancer patients in the Linzhou city during 2003-2012. Flexible parametric cure models were used to estimate cure proportions and median survival times of uncured by year of diagnosed and age. In each model, an interaction between calendar year and age were included. All variables in the model were included both as constant and time-varying effects. RESULTS: The 5-year relative survival rate was increased in every age group from 2003 to 2012. The huge increase in the cure proportion was observed in each age group. At the year of 2011-2012, 79.8%, 58.0%, 123.4% and 162.7% improvements of cure proportion were seen in age group 19-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-99 years compared with year of 2003-2004. Meanwhile, survival of 'uncured' patients changed little in all age group. CONCLUSIONS: The improvement of survival in Linzhou city during 2003-2012 was mainly due to an increasing cure proportion. Huge improvement of cure fraction within short period is likely due to the organized screening of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city.

Endoscopy screening effect on stage distributions of esophageal cancer: A cluster randomized cohort study in China.

Efficacy of endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer is not sufficiently definitive and lacks randomized controlled trial evidence. The present study proved short-term screening efficacy through describing and comparing disease stage distributions of intervention and control populations. Villages from Linzhou and Cixian were cluster randomly allocated to the intervention or to the control group and the target population of 52 729 and 43 068 individuals was 40-69 years old, respectively, and the actual enrolled numbers were 18 316 and 21 178, respectively. TNM stage information and study-defined stage information of esophageal cases from 2012 to 2016 were collected. Stage distributions were compared between the intervention and control groups in the total target population, as well as in the subgroup populations in terms of enrolment and before or after intervention. There were a total of 199 and 141 esophageal cancer cases in the intervention and control groups, respectively. For the target population, distributions of TNM stage were borderline significant between the two groups after intervention (P = .093). However, subgroup analysis of the enrolled population during the after-intervention period had statistical significance for both TNM and study-defined stage. Natural TNM stage distributions were approximately 32%, 41%, 24% and 3% for stages I to IV vs 71%, 19%, 7% and 3% in the intervention population. The natural study-defined stage distributions from early, middle to advanced stages were approximately 18%, 49% and 33% vs 59%, 33% and 8%. Early-stage esophageal cancer cases accounted for a higher proportion after endoscopy screening, and the efficacy in the target population depends on the intervention compliance.

Natural History Analysis of 101 Severe Dysplasia and Esophageal Carcinoma Cases by Endoscopy.

Objectives. Our research is to realize the natural history from dysplasia to carcinoma and to provide evidence for exploring proper screening intervals. Methods. After the onset endoscopy screening, 2093 of the patients participated in the endoscopic follow-up voluntarily. Totally, 101 severe dysplasia and carcinoma cases, either diagnosed in the first endoscopy without treatment or diagnosed in the second endoscopy, were included in our study. We compared the pathologic results of their two endoscopies and calculate the mean and median progression time. Results. Of the 39 severe dysplasia cases diagnosed by the onset endoscopy, only 8 progressed to carcinoma. For severe dysplasia cases diagnosed by the follow-up endoscopy, mean progression times are 55.0, 49.8, and 38.0 months and median progression times are 43, 56, and 31 months for esophagitis, mild dysplasia, and moderate dysplasia, respectively. For superficial carcinoma cases diagnosed by the second endoscopy, mean progression times are 76.0, 57.4, and 47.0 months and median progression times are 77, 63, and 35 months for mild dysplasia, moderate dysplasia, and severe dysplasia, respectively. Conclusions. Population-based severe dysplasia cases may have much lower carcinoma progression rate than specific-selected ones. The progression time for most enrolled cases seems longer than that of the recent screening protocol recommended.

[Cost-effectiveness analysis of esophageal cancer once-in-a-lifetime endoscopic screening in high-risk areas of rural China].

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of esophageal cancer endoscopic screening once-in-a-lifetime and to predict the optimal screening age for people in high-risk areas of rural China. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to predict and compare the effect of four esophageal cancer endoscopic screening modalities which varied with different screening ages. Long-term epidemiological effectiveness and cost-effectiveness were predicted by simulation of the model. RESULTS: Compared with the control group, strategies starting at 40, 45, 50 and 55 year-old had saved life-years of 629.51, 769.88, 738.98 and 533.21 years per 100 000 people, respectively, of which the strategy starting at 45 year-old saved the maximum life years. All strategies were cost-effective and starting at 40 year-old cost the most per life-year saved. Among all alternatives, strategies starting age at 45 year-old and 50 year-old were incremental cost-effective, and the incremental cost-effective ratios were 34 962.87 and 3 346.43 RMB per life year saved, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The strategy starting at 40 year-old implemented at present and other strategies were cost-effective in high-risk areas of rural China. However, the 45-year-old group is more aligned with the principle of cost-effectiveness. Considering the cost-effectiveness of different strategies and social economic status, 45 year-old is regarded as the optimal starting age of esophageal cancer once-in-a-lifetime endoscopic screening and is recommended in areas lacking health resources. The strategy of starting age at 40 year-old which could obtain better screening effects would be preferable in wealthy regions.

[Distribution of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precursor lesions in high-risk areas, Linzhou in Henan province and Feicheng in Shandong province of China, 2005-2009].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the distribution of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precursor lesions in high-risk areas of China, and to provide evidence for determining the reference ranges of detection rates in high-risk areas. METHODS: Endoscopy with Lugol's iodine staining was performed on 15 709 local residents aged 40 to 69 years old in Linzhou of Henan province and Feicheng of Shandong province from 2005-2009. 35 cases without accurate pathology diagnosis and 11 cases with vital disease before screening were excluded. 15 663 subjects were enrolled in this study. Compliance was calculated by the percentage of the people who had endoscopic screening among the target population. Chi-square test and trend chi-square test were used to compare the distribution differences in age, gender and areas of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precancer. 95% CI of the detection rates was then employed to represent the reference ranges of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precursor lesions. RESULTS: The compliance rate of screening endoscopy of this study was 49.36% (15 709/31 826) of all, and female's compliance (54.05%, 8 447/15 628) was much higher than that of male (44.83%, 7 262/16 198) (χ(2) = 88.14, P < 0.001). The detection rates of basal cell hyperplasia, low grade intraepithelial neoplasia, high grade intraepithelial neoplasia and esophageal squamous cell cancer of males were 4.17% (302/7 246), 17.22% (1 248/7 246), 1.67% (121/7 246), 0.83% (60/7 246), and were higher than that of females (3.45% (290/8 417), 14.82% (1 247/8 417), 1.41% (119/8 417), 0.48% (40/8 417), respectively). Except for high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, the detection rates of male were higher than that of female (P values were 0.018, < 0.001, 0.960, 0.006). The detection rates of all grades of precursor lesions increased with age rising (all P values < 0.001), among which the detection rates of the mentioned four lesions for 40-44 years old were 2.69% (94/3 500), 8.11% (284/3 500), 0.40% (14/3 500), 0.14% (5/3 500), and that of 65-69 years old were 5.46% (46/843), 23.25% (196/843), 3.68% (31/843), 2.14% (18/843). The proportion of esophageal precursor lesion of Linzhou were higher than that of Feicheng observably except for esophageal squamous cell cancer (P values were < 0.001, < 0.001, < 0.001, 0.437). The detection rates of the four lesions of Linzhou and Feicheng were 4.90% (504/10 287), 17.37% (1 787/10 287), 1.79% (184/1 0287), 0.60% (62/10 287) and 1.64% (88/5 376), 13.17% (708/5 376), 1.04% (56/5 376), 0.71% (38/5 376). The 95% CI of detection rates of various lesions were, 3.78% (3.48%-4.08%) for basal cell hyperplasia, 15.93% (15.37%-16.50%) for low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, 12.31% (11.79%-12.82%) for mild dysplasia and 3.62% (3.33%-3.91%) for moderate hyperplasia, 1.53% (1.34%-1.72%) for high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia and 0.64% (0.51%-0.76%) for esophageal squamous cell cancer, respectively. CONCLUSION: Up to 21.88% residents that were asymptomatic were suffered from esophageal squamous cancer or precursor lesions in high-risk areas in China. The distribution of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precursor lesions was closely related to the gender and the age, which suggested that males were supposed to be paid more attention to.

[Time trends in esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou city in 1986 - 2010 and future prediction].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends in mortality of esophageal cancer and explore the effects of age, period and cohort on esophageal cancer mortality rate in Linzhou city in 1986 - 2010, and predict the mortality of esophageal cancer in 2016 - 2020. METHODS: All of the esophageal cancer-attributed deaths in 1986 - 2010 were drawn from the database in Center of Cancer and Vita Statistics in Henan Province. The numbers of the death cases and population were tabulated into 5-year age groups and 5-year period groups for each sex and linked each other. The age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization to the Chinese population structure in 1982. Intrinsic estimator model (IE model)was used to perform the age-period-cohort analysis and estimate the corresponding parameters. Age effect, period effect and cohort effect on esophageal cancer mortality rate was plotted separately. The mortality of esophageal cancer during 2016 - 2020 was predicted according to the parameters by that model. RESULTS: A total of 15432 cases died from esophageal cancer in Linzhou city in1986 - 2010. The overall crude mortality rate was 63.89 per 100, 000. Among men, the age-adjusted mortality rate was 109.66 per 100, 000 during 1986-1990 and decreased to 60.59 per 100, 000 during 2006 - 2010. For women, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased from 74.72 per 100, 000 to 39.05 per 100, 000 at the same two calendar periods. The IE model showed that age effect was remarkable, the period effect was stable and the cohort effect decreased greatly. The predicted mortality of over 30-years old population during 2016 - 2020 is 1501 for men and 1083 for women. Compared with 2006 - 2010 period the mortality will be decreased by 6.71% and 11.08%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city shows a decreasing trend during the period of 1986 - 2010. This trend is mainly attributed to the cohort effect. The predicted mortality in the future will decrease continually.

Cost-benefit analysis of screening for esophageal and gastric cardiac cancer.

In 2005, a program named "Early Detection and Early Treatment of Esophageal and Cardiac Cancer" (EDETEC) was initiated in China. A total of 8279 residents aged 40-69 years old were recruited into the EDETEC program in Linzhou of Henan Province between 2005 and 2008. Howerer, the cost-benefit of the EDETEC program is not very clear yet. We conducted herein a cost-benefit analysis of screening for esophageal and cardiac cancer. The assessed costs of the EDETEC program included screening costs for each subject, as well as direct and indirect treatment costs for esophageal and cardiac severe dysplasia and cancer detected by screening. The assessed benefits of this program included the saved treatment costs, both direct and indirect, on esophageal and cardiac cancer, as well as the value of prolonged life due to screening, as determined by the human capital approach. The results showed the screening cost of finding esophageal and cardiac severe dysplasia or cancer ranged from RMB 2707 to RMB 4512, and the total cost on screening and treatment was RMB 13 115-14 920. The cost benefit was RMB 58 944-155 110 (the saved treatment cost, RMB 17 730, plus the value of prolonged life, RMB 41 214-137 380). The ratio of benefit-to-cost (BCR) was 3.95-11.83. Our results suggest that EDETEC has a high benefit-to-cost ratio in China and could be instituted into high risk areas of China.

[Period survival analysis of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city of Henan province].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the survival level and variation of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city of Henan province from 1988 to 2004, and evaluate the effects of diagnosis and treatments on esophageal cancer in this area. METHODS: All incidence and death records for esophageal cancer during 1988 to 2004 were collected from Linzhou Tumor Registry. Cases with duplicate information or death certificate only were excluded. A total of 12,160 cases of esophageal cancer were collected, of which, 6914 cases were male, and 5246 cases were female. The sex-specific and age-specific probabilities of survival in 1992, 1997 and 2002 were calculated and linked to the data of incidence and death on esophageal cancer in this area. Five-year observed survival rate and five-year relative survival rate during 1990 to 1994, 1995 to 1999, 2000 to 2004 were calculated respectively using period survival analysis and cohort survival analysis and Z test. RESULTS: The 5-year relative survival rates among the three-episode were 28.24%, 35.24% and 40.76% respectively during 1988 to 2004. This showed an increasing trend by periods (Z values were 3.94 and 3.07, P < 0.05). The 5-year observed survival rates in men among the three-episode were 13.67%, 18.08% and 22.46% respectively, the 5-year relative survival rates were 29.94%, 36.96% and 38.40%. The 5-year observed survival rates in women among the three-episode were 15.56%, 19.29% and 28.01% respectively, the 5-year relative survival rates were 26.78%, 33.12% and 43.70%. During the two former periods, there was no significant difference in the 5-year observed survival rate and relative survival rate between men and women (Z values of observed survival rate were 1.48 and 0.88, P > 0.05. Z values of relative survival rate were 1.27 and 1.50, P > 0.05). In the third period, the 5-year observed survival rate and relative survival rate in women was higher than that in men (observed survival rate Z = 3.56, P < 0.05; relative survival rate Z = 2.09, P < 0.05). The relative survival rate that calculated using period method (respectively 35.24% and 40.76%) was higher than that using cohort method (respectively 28.77% and 33.35%) from 1995 to 1999, and from 2000 to 2004. CONCLUSION: The survival rate on esophageal cancer in Linzhou city was increasing in the three different periods. This indicated a rising status in the secondary prevention and clinical diagnosis and treatments on esophageal cancer.

[The trends on the mortality for esophagus and stomach cancers in Linzhou city from 1988 to 2003].

OBJECTIVE: Using the data on death for esophagus and stomach cancers in Linzhou cancer registration system, the mortality was described as well as the changing trend was analyzed. METHODS: 18 240 death recorders for the both cancers during 1988 to 2003 were drawn from Linzhou cancer registration system. Of which, 10138 cases were esophageal cancer and 8102 cases were gastric cancer. Then data were stratified by sex, age, year and then linked to demographic classifications. The mortalities of two topographic site cancers were calculated and the age-adjusted rates were calculated by direct standardization to the world population. The Joinpoint model was used to get the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of the age-adjusted rates, so to estimate the death rate change trends of both cancers in population of Linzhou city. RESULTS: In 2003, the age-adjusted mortalities of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer were 68.47 per 100,000 and 57.01 per 100,000 respectively of Linzhou city. From 1988 to 2003 the death rates for both of cancers had showed the decline trends. The EAPC of the mortality for esophageal cancer was -3.82 (-4.81 - -2.82, P < 0.001) and that for gastric cancer was -2.95 (-4.16 - -1.73, P < 0.001) respectively. CONCLUSION: The declining trend in was observed the mortality of esophageal and gastric cancer in Linzhou by this study.

[Descriptive analysis of incidence and time trends of esophageal and gastric cancers in Linzhou city].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the incidence and time trends of esophageal and gastric cancers in Linzhou city bassed on the data of Linxian Tumor Registry, and to provide valid reference data for research and effective estimation of cancer control in this area. METHODS: All incidence records for the both cancers during 1988-2003 were drawn from Linzhou Tumor Registry and grouped by sex, age, year and then linked to corresponding population data. The incidence rates of those two topographic site cancers were calculated and the age-adjusted rates were calculated by direct standardization to the world population. A joinpoint model was used to get the annual percentage change (APC) of the age-adjusted rates, and to estimate the epidemiological trends of both cancers in population of Linzhou city. RESULTS: In the year 2003 the age-adjusted incidence rates of esophageal and gastric cancers were 81.78 per 100 000 and 77.08 per 100 000, respectively, in the population of Linzhou city. The incidence rate of both cancers showed a decreasing trend from 1988 to 2003. The APC of the incidence rates of esophageal cancer was - 2.6% and that of gastric cancer was - 1.8%, and both indexes were statistically significant (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The incidence rates of esophageal and gastric cancers have presented a decreasing trends in the population of Linzhou city. This trend will continue along with the development of social economy, elevation of living standard and improvement in living habit and environment.