Modelling the effect of demographic change and healthcare infrastructure on the patient structure in German hospitals - a longitudinal national study based on official hospital statistics.

BACKGROUND: Effects of demographic change, such as declining birth rates and increasing individual life expectancy, require health system adjustments offering age- and needs-based care. In addition, healthcare factors can also influence health services demand. METHODS: The official German hospital statistics database with odd-numbered years between 1995 and 2011 was analysed. This is a national comprehensive database of all general hospital inpatient services delivered. Official data from hospital statistics were linked at the district level with demographic and socio-economic data as well as population figures from the official regional statistics. Panel data regression, modelling case numbers per hospital, was performed for 13 diagnosis groups that characterised the patient structure. Socio-demographic variables included age, sex, household income, and healthcare factors included bed capacity, personnel and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: The median number of annual treatments per hospital increased from 6 015 (5th and 95th percentile [670; 24 812]) in 1995 to 7 817 in 2011 (5th and 95th percentile [301; 33 651]). We developed models characterising the patient structure of health care in Germany, considering both socio-demographic and hospital factors. Demographic factors influenced case numbers across all major diagnosis groups. For example, the age groups 65-74 and 75 + influenced cerebrovascular disease case numbers (p < 0.001). Other important factors included human and material resources of hospitals or the household income of patients. Distinct differences between the models for the individual diagnosis groups were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital planning should not only consider demographic change but also hospital infrastructure and socio-economic factors.

Second primary cancer among 217702 colorectal cancer survivors: An analysis of national German cancer registry data.

With improvements in survival after colorectal cancer (CRC), more survivors are at risk of developing a second cancer, particularly in younger populations where CRC incidence is increasing. We estimated the incidence of second primary cancer (SPC) in CRC survivors and its potential risk factors. We identified CRC cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and SPCs until 2013 from nine German cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and absolute excess risk (AER) per 10 000 person-years were calculated and were stratified by index site: colon cancer (CC) and rectal cancer (RC), age and sex. Cox regression assessed potential SPC risk factors, including primary tumor-related therapy considering death as a competing risk. We included 217 202 primary CRC cases. SPC occurred in 18 751 CRC survivors (8.6%; median age: 69 years). Risk of cancer was significantly higher in CRC survivors than in the general population (SIR males 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.17, AER = 24.7; SIR females 1.20, 95% CI 1.17-1.23, AER = 22.8). Increased risks of SPCs were observed for the digestive system, urinary system and female and male reproductive organs. CRC incidence increased in younger persons (<50 years) and SPC incidence was 4-fold in this group (SIR males 4.51, 95% CI 4.04-5.01, AER = 64.2; SIR females 4.03, 95% CI 3.62-4.48, AER = 77.0). Primary tumor-related factors associated with SPC risk were right-sided cancer and smaller primary tumor size. Treatment and risk of SPC differed for CC (no effect) and RC (lower risk after chemotherapy). CRC survivors have excess risk of developing SPC, with particular characteristics that could guide targeted surveillance.

Epidemiology of cervical cancer in elderly women: Analysis of incidence, treatment, and survival using German registry data.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer (CC) screening is generally recommended until age 65. The incidence of CC could be underestimated, particularly in older women, due to a lack of hysterectomy correction. Furthermore, elderly women (≥65 years) are more often diagnosed with late-stage disease and have worse outcomes than younger patients. This study aims to provide an in-depth overview of CC in Germany. METHODS: Incidence rates of CC (ICD-10 C53) were determined using data from the German Centre of Cancer Registry data (ZfKD) of six federal state registries. Incidence was corrected by using hysterectomy prevalence values from a real-world study. The distribution of treatment modalities (surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy) was assessed. Relative survival was calculated using the period approach (2011-2015). Survival was stratified by tumor (T) stage and histological type. RESULTS: In total, 14,528 CC cases were included, 27.6% of which occurred in elderly women. Cumulative (2001-2015) age-standardized incidence rates were 12.5 per 100,000 women without hysterectomy correction and 15.5 per 100,000 women after hysterectomy correction (+24% relative change). A lower proportion of elderly women were treated, especially in advanced tumor stages. Younger women (20-64 years) had a higher 5-year relative survival compared to elderly women: 76.7% versus 46.9%, respectively. Survival was worse with increasing stage and for glandular histological subgroups, particularly among elderly women. CONCLUSIONS: CC incidence in elderly women is underestimated and survival is lower compared to younger women in Germany. Due to the high disease burden in elderly women, screening and treatment strategies need to be improved.

Colposcopy non-attendance following an abnormal cervical cancer screening result: a prospective population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A considerable proportion of cervical cancer diagnoses in high-income countries are due to lack of timely follow-up of an abnormal screening result. We estimated colposcopy non-attendance, examined the potential factors associated and described non-attendance reasons in a population-based screening study. METHODS: Data from the MARZY prospective cohort study were analysed. Co-test screen-positive women (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse [ASC-US+] or high-risk human papillomavirus [hrHPV] positive) aged 30 to 65 years were referred to colposcopy within two screening rounds (3-year interval). Women were surveyed for sociodemographic, HPV-related and other data, and interviewed for non-attendance reasons. Logistic regression was used to examine potential associations with colposcopy attendance. RESULTS: At baseline, 2,627 women were screened (screen-positive = 8.7%), and 2,093 again at follow-up (screen-positive = 5.1%; median 2.7 years later). All screen-positives were referred to colposcopy, however 28.9% did not attend despite active recall. Among co-test positives (ASC-US+ and hrHPV) and only hrHPV positives, 19.6% were non-attendees. Half of only ASC-US+ screenees attended colposcopy. Middle age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.55, 95% CI 1.02, 4.96) and hrHPV positive result (aOR = 3.04, 95% CI 1.49, 7.22) were associated with attendance. Non-attendance was associated with having ≥ 3 children (aOR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.10, 0.86). Major reasons for non-attendance were lack of time, barriers such as travel time, need for childcare arrangements and the advice against colposcopy given by the gynaecologist who conducted screening. CONCLUSIONS: Follow-up rates of abnormal screening results needs improvement. A systematic recall system integrating enhanced communication and addressing follow-up barriers may improve screening effectiveness.

Febrile seizures in an urban Tanzanian population: lessons learned from a community-based random cluster survey.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the cumulative incidence of febrile seizures, to evaluate the accuracy of our screening questionnaire and to describe clinical characteristics of children with febrile seizure in an urban population in Tanzania. METHODS: A large random cluster sampled population was screened for a febrile seizure history as part of a larger epilepsy study using a standardised questionnaire in a two-stage door-to-door survey in Tanzania. A subset of screen positive participants was further examined for confirmation of diagnosis and evaluation of clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Overall, 49 697 people were screened for a febrile seizure history of whom 184 (0.4%) screened positive. Women more commonly screened positive than men (112 [0.4%] vs. 72 [0.3%]). There was no marked difference between age groups or education. The positive predictive value of the screening tool was 37% (95% CI 24-51%) but its accuracy varied with the age of interviewed individuals. Cumulative incidence rates were estimated between 1.1% and 2.0% after adjusting for the inaccuracy of the screening tool. Most febrile seizures occurred before the age of two (65%) and most children had more than one episode (80%). A large proportion of children had complex febrile seizure (65%), often caused by malaria or respiratory infections. CONCLUSIONS: The community-based cumulative incidence of a febrile seizure history in an urban Tanzanian population was similar to rates reported from other rural populations after adjusting for the inaccuracy of our screening tool. Based on the integrated nature of the febrile seizure questionnaire, screening positivity rates may have been too low. This has implications for the design of future studies. The majority of cases had complex febrile seizures often associated with malaria. This has implications for clinical case management.

Cervical Cancer Screening: Comparison of Conventional Pap Smear Test, Liquid-Based Cytology, and Human Papillomavirus Testing as Stand-alone or Cotesting Strategies.

BACKGROUND: Some countries have implemented stand-alone human papillomavirus (HPV) testing while others consider cotesting for cervical cancer screening. We compared both strategies within a population-based study. METHODS: The MARZY cohort study was conducted in Germany. Randomly selected women from population registries aged ≥30 years (n = 5,275) were invited to screening with Pap smear, liquid-based cytology (LBC, ThinPrep), and HPV testing (Hybrid Capture2, HC2). Screen-positive participants [ASC-US+ or high-risk HC2 (hrHC2)] and a random 5% sample of screen-negatives were referred to colposcopy. Post hoc HPV genotyping was conducted by GP5+/6+ PCR-EIA with reverse line blotting. Sensitivity, specificity (adjusted for verification bias), and potential harms, including number of colposcopies needed to detect 1 precancerous lesion (NNC), were calculated. RESULTS: In 2,627 screened women, cytological sensitivities (Pap, LBC: 47%) were lower than HC2 (95%) and PCR (79%) for CIN2+. Cotesting demonstrated higher sensitivities (HC2 cotesting: 99%; PCR cotesting: 84%), but at the cost of lower specificities (92%-95%) compared with HPV stand-alone (HC2: 95%; PCR: 94%) and cytology (97% or 99%). Cotesting versus HPV stand-alone showed equivalent relative sensitivity [HC2: 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00-1.21; PCR: 1.07, 95% CI, 1.00-1.27]. Relative specificity of Pap cotesting with either HPV test was inferior to stand-alone HPV. LBC cotesting demonstrated equivalent specificity (both tests: 0.99, 95% CI, 0.99-1.00). NNC was highest for Pap cotesting. CONCLUSIONS: Cotesting offers no benefit in detection over stand-alone HPV testing, resulting in more false positive results and colposcopy referrals. IMPACT: HPV stand-alone screening offers a better balance of benefits and harms than cotesting.See related commentary by Wentzensen and Clarke, p. 432.

Psychosocial factors associated with symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress among single mothers with young children: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Abundant evidence highlights single parenthood as a common risk factor for depression, anxiety and stress but few studies have comprehensively examined psychosocial factors (adversities), particularly during early parenting. We investigated symptom prevalence and potential risk factors among mothers with very young children. METHODS: Data stem from the 2015 National Psychosocial Burdens Prevalence Study (KiD 0-3). Mothers with children up to 3 years of age (n = 6925) were recruited from random probability-sampled paediatric clinics (n = 271) across Germany and reported on depression or anxiety, general and parenting stress using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4), Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-4) and Parenting Stress Index (PSI). Multivariable logistic regression models determined risk factors and quantified potential mediation of psychosocial factors for all 3 outcomes. RESULTS: Approximately 30% of single mothers (n = 517) reported depressive or anxiety symptoms and 37% general stress, twice as high compared to partnered mothers (n = 6408; p < 0.0001). Parenting stress was also elevated (p < 0.0001). Adjusted regression models confirm that single mothers are twice as likely to report symptoms of depression or anxiety (OR 1.9, CI95% 1.4-2.5). Risk factors for stress correspond to those for depression and anxiety. Inadequate social support and history of partner or childhood maltreatment were also consistent risk factors across all outcomes. LIMITATIONS: The study design and self-reported symptoms are limitations to consider. CONCLUSIONS: Single mothers with young children are more predisposed to mental health disorders than partnered mothers, especially when facing financial, social or distal adversities. Appropriate social support programs and screening measures are necessary to reduce further disparities.

Children's exposure to second-hand smoke before and after the smoking ban in Bavaria-a multiple cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The federal state of Bavaria, Germany enforced a comprehensive smoking ban across all enclosed public areas in 2008 to protect non-smokers from second-hand smoke (SHS). Evidence against displacement of smoking to homes is abundant, however long-term assessments are few. We aim to report prevalence of children's SHS exposure before and after the ban, parental smoking behaviour and exposure risk factors. METHODS: Cross-sectional data of children aged 5-6 years old in Bavaria (n = 22 944) were collected in 2004/5 and 2005/6 (S1 and S2) before the ban and after in 2008/9 and 2012/13 (S4 and S6). Parents reported their child's home SHS exposure, in enclosed public areas and private cars. Adjusted multivariable logistic regression assessed changes across time and predicted risk factors. RESULTS: Children's home SHS exposure before the ban was 14.3% (S1), 14.1% (S2) and 12.8% (S4) directly after the ban to 7.2% (S6) (P<0.0001). The proportion of homes where at least one parent smoked significantly reduced from 12.78% (S1) to 4.94% (S6) (P<0.0001) and homes with voluntary smoke-free rules increased. Exposure in cafes, restaurants and private cars also decreased. No significant changes in the proportion of parents that ceased smoking due to the ban were found. Among others, low parental education, crowding and unemployment were risk factors for higher SHS exposure. CONCLUSION: Since the smoking ban, no long-term displacement of SHS to homes was observed. Social smoking norms appear to have shifted in favour of the ban. Social inequalities still exist and should be addressed to further minimise SHS exposure.