Linking 19th century European settlement to the disruption of a seabird's natural population dynamics.

Recent estimates indicate that ∼70% of the world's seabird populations have declined since the 1950s due to human activities. However, for almost all bird populations, there is insufficient long-term monitoring to understand baseline (i.e., preindustrial) conditions, which are required to distinguish natural versus anthropogenically driven changes. Here, we address this lack of long-term monitoring data with multiproxy paleolimnological approaches to examine the long-term population dynamics of a major colony of Leach's Storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous) on Grand Colombier Island in the St. Pierre and Miquelon archipelago-an overseas French territory in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. By reconstructing the last ∼5,800 y of storm-petrel dynamics, we demonstrate that this colony underwent substantial natural fluctuations until the start of the 19th century, when population cycles were disrupted, coinciding with the establishment and expansion of a European settlement. Our paleoenvironmental data, coupled with on-the-ground population surveys, indicate that the current colony is only ∼16% of the potential carrying capacity, reinforcing concerning trends of globally declining seabird populations. As seabirds are sentinel species of marine ecosystem health, such declines provide a call to action for global conservation. In response, we emphasize the need for enlarged protected areas and the rehabilitation of disturbed islands to protect ecologically critical seabird populations. Furthermore, long-term data, such as those provided by paleoecological approaches, are required to better understand shifting baselines in conservation to truly recognize current rates of ecological loss.

Striking centennial-scale changes in the population size of a threatened seabird.

Many animal populations are under stress and declining. For numerous marine bird species, only recent or sparse monitoring data are available, lacking the appropriate temporal perspective needed to consider natural, long-term population dynamics when developing conservation strategies. Here, we use a combination of established palaeoenvironmental approaches to examine the centennial-scale dynamics of the world's largest colony (representing approx. 50% of the global population) of the declining and vulnerable Leach's Storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous). By reconstructing the last approximately 1700 years of the colony's population trends, we corroborate recent surveys indicating rapid declines since the 1980s. More surprisingly, however, was that the colony size was smaller and has changed strikingly in the past, even prior to the introduction of human stressors. Our results challenge notions that very large colonies are generally stable in the absence of anthropogenic pressures and speak to an increasingly pressing need to better understand inter-colony movement and recruitment when inferring range- and species-wide trends. While the recently documented decline in storm-petrels clearly warrants conservation concern, we show that colony size was consistently much lower in the past and changed markedly in the absence of major anthropogenic activity. In response, we emphasize the need for enlarged protected area networks to maintain natural population cycles, coupled with continued research to identify the driver(s) of the current global seabird decline.