Quantifying protocols for safe school activities.

By the peak of COVID-19 restrictions on April 8, 2020, up to 1.5 billion students across 188 countries were affected by the suspension of physical attendance in schools. Schools were among the first services to reopen as vaccination campaigns advanced. With the emergence of new variants and infection waves, the question now is to find safe protocols for the continuation of school activities. We need to understand how reliable these protocols are under different levels of vaccination coverage, as many countries have a meager fraction of their population vaccinated, including Uganda where the coverage is about 8%. We investigate the impact of face-to-face classes under different protocols and quantify the surplus number of infected individuals in a city. Using the infection transmission when schools were closed as a baseline, we assess the impact of physical school attendance in classrooms with poor air circulation. We find that (i) resuming school activities with people only wearing low-quality masks leads to a near fivefold city-wide increase in the number of cases even if all staff is vaccinated, (ii) resuming activities with students wearing good-quality masks and staff wearing N95s leads to about a threefold increase, (iii) combining high-quality masks and active monitoring, activities may be carried out safely even with low vaccination coverage. These results highlight the effectiveness of good mask-wearing. Compared to ICU costs, high-quality masks are inexpensive and can help curb the spreading. Classes can be carried out safely, provided the correct set of measures are implemented.

Proteinuria and serum creatinine after 12 months of treatment for lupus nephritis as predictors of long-term renal outcome: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Lupus nephritis (LN) is a major source of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), with 10-25% of patients progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). OBJECTIVE: This study aims to elucidate the predictive capabilities of 24-h proteinuria (24PTU) and serum creatinine (sCr) after 12 months of treatment with respect to long-term renal outcomes in LN in a single-center cohort of LN patients. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on 214 patients diagnosed with LN followed in our center. Values of 24PTU and sCr were assessed at baseline and after 3, 6 and 12 months, and after 5 years and/or the last evaluation. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 3 months or longer. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) was defined as the need for permanent dialysis. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) were used to test the best cut-off value of 24PTU and sCr at 12 months who predict bad long-term renal outcomes. RESULTS: The mean follow-up period was 11.2 ± 7.2 years. The best cut-off values for 24PTU and sCr as predictor of CKD were, respectively, 0.9 g/24 h and 0.9 mg/dL. ROC curve for 24PTU had a slightly lower performance than ROC curve for sCr as predictor for CKD (PTU AUC = 0.68; sCr AUC = 0.70), but sensitivity and specificity were better for 24PTU (24PTU: sensitivity = 63.5%, specificity = 71.2%; sCr: sensitivity = 54.8%, specificity = 75.3%). When the outcome was ESRD the best cut-off points were 0.9 g/24hs and 1.3 mg/dL for 24PTU and sCr, respectively, and the curve performance was better for 24PTU (PTU AUC = 0.72; sCr AUC = 0.61). CONCLUSIONS: In this ethnically diverse population with LN followed for a long time (> 10 years), levels of 24PTU > 0.9/day at 12 months was a good predictor of bad long-term renal outcome. The serum creatinine > 0.9 mg/dL and > 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months were also good predictors of CKD and ESRD, respectively. Patients with 24PTU < 0.9 g/day and sCr < 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months are not likely to develop ESRD because of the high negative predictive values (NPV) (93.2% and 82%). 24PTU and sCr are relevant as components for a treat-to-target strategy for LN treatment, since their high NPV corroborates their importance as good predictors of long-term renal outcome.

Proteinuria and serum creatinine after 12 months of treatment for lupus nephritis as predictors of long-term renal outcome: a case-control study

Abstract Background: Lupus nephritis (LN) is a major source of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), with 10-25% of patients progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Objective: This study aims to elucidate the predictive capabilities of 24-h proteinuria (24PTU) and serum creatinine (sCr) after 12 months of treatment with respect to long-term renal outcomes in LN in a single-center cohort of LN patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 214 patients diagnosed with LN followed in our center. Values of 24PTU and sCr were assessed at baseline and after 3, 6 and 12 months, and after 5 years and/or the last evaluation. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 3 months or longer. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) was defined as the need for permanent dialysis. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) were used to test the best cut-off value of 24PTU and sCr at 12 months who predict bad long-term renal outcomes. Results: The mean follow-up period was 11.2 ± 7.2 years. The best cut-off values for 24PTU and sCr as predictor of CKD were, respectively, 0.9 g/24 h and 0.9 mg/dL. ROC curve for 24PTU had a slightly lower performance than ROC curve for sCr as predictor for CKD (PTU AUC = 0.68; sCr AUC = 0.70), but sensitivity and specificity were better for 24PTU (24PTU: sensitivity = 63.5%, specificity = 71.2%; sCr: sensitivity = 54.8%, specificity = 75.3%). When the outcome was ESRD the best cut-off points were 0.9 g/24hs and 1.3 mg/dL for 24PTU and sCr, respectively, and the curve performance was better for 24PTU (PTU AUC = 0.72; sCr AUC = 0.61). Conclusions: In this ethnically diverse population with LN followed for a long time (> 10 years), levels of 24PTU > 0.9/day at 12 months was a good predictor of bad long-term renal outcome. The serum creatinine > 0.9 mg/dL and > 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months were also good predictors of CKD and ESRD, respectively. Patients with 24PTU < 0.9 g/day and sCr < 1.3 mg/dL at 12 months are not likely to develop ESRD because of the high negative predictive values (NPV) (93.2% and 82%). 24PTU and sCr are relevant as components for a treat-to-target strategy for LN treatment, since their high NPV corroborates their importance as good predictors of long-term renal outcome.