Analysing monkeypox epidemic drivers: Policy simulation and multi-index modelling across 39 nations.

Background: This study aimed to analyse the drivers of the monkeypox (Mpox) epidemic and policy simulation to support health care policies against the Mpox epidemic. Methods: We established a three-round selection mechanism for 164 factors using Lasso and negative binomial regression to investigate the correlation between significant drivers and the cumulative confirmed cases of Mpox. Policy simulation for each driver was evaluated, and the varying effects of implementation at different times were examined. Results: HIV/AIDS prevalence and air transport passengers carried were significant determinants of the risk of the Mpox epidemic across various countries, with regression coefficients of 1.417 and 0.766, respectively. A decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence by 10, 20, 30, and 40% corresponded to reductions in the number of Mpox cases by 6.28, 6.55, 6.87, and 7.26%, respectively. Similarly, 20, 40, 60, and 80% travel restrictions led to reductions in Mpox cases by 7.16, 15.63, 26.28%, and 41.46%, respectively. Controlling air transport passengers carried in the first month could postpone outbreak onset by 0.5-2.0 months. Conclusions: Mpox prevention and control policies should primarily focus on travel restrictions during high disease-risk periods and flight suspensions from high-risk nations in combination with regular HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment strategies.

Vasculoprotective Potential of Baicalein in Angiotensin II-Infused Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms through Inhibiting Inflammation and Oxidative Stress.

Aortic wall inflammation, abnormal oxidative stress and progressive degradation of extracellular matrix proteins are the main characteristics of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). The nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor family pyrin domain containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome dysregulation plays a crucial role in aortic damage and disease progression. The first aim of this study was to examine the effect of baicalein (5,6,7-trihydroxy-2-phenyl-4H-1-benzopyran-4-one) on AAA formation in apolipoprotein E-deficient (ApoE-/-) mice. The second aim was to define whether baicalein attenuates aberrant vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation and inflammation in VSMC culture. For male ApoE-/- mice, a clinically relevant AAA model was randomly divided into four groups: saline infusion, baicalein intraperitoneal injection, Angiotensin II (Ang II) infusion and Ang II + baicalein. Twenty-seven days of treatment with baicalein markedly decreased Ang II-infused AAA incidence and aortic diameter, reduced collagen-fiber formation, preserved elastic structure and density and prevented smooth muscle cell contractile protein degradation. Baicalein inhibited rat VSMC proliferation and migration following the stimulation of VSMC cultures with Ang II while blocking the Ang II-inducible cell cycle progression from G0/G1 to the S phase in the synchronized cells. Cal-520 AM staining showed that baicalein decreased cellular calcium in Ang II-induced VSMCs; furthermore, a Western blot assay indicated that baicalein inhibited the expression of PCNA and significantly lowered levels of phospho-Akt and phospho-ERK, along with an increase in baicalein concentration in Ang II-induced VSMCs. Immunofluorescence staining showed that baicalein pretreatment reduced NF-κB nuclear translocation in Ang II-induced VSMCs and furthered the protein expressions of NLRP3 while ASC and caspase-1 were suppressed in a dose-dependent manner. Baicalein pretreatment upregulated Nrf2/HO-1 signaling in Ang II-induced VSMCs. Thus, 2',7'-dichlorodihydrofluorescein diacetate (DCFH-DA) staining showed that its reactive oxygen species (ROS) production decreased, along with the baicalein pretreatment. Our overall results indicate that baicalein could have therapeutic potential in preventing aneurysm development.

Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses.

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is a common zoonotic infectious disease in China. This study aimed to investigate the incidence trends of brucellosis in China, construct an optimal prediction model, and analyze the driving role of climatic factors for human brucellosis. METHODS: Using brucellosis incidence, and the socioeconomic and climatic data for 2014-2020 in China, we performed spatiotemporal analyses and calculated correlations with brucellosis incidence in China, developed and compared a series of regression and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average X (SARIMAX) models for brucellosis prediction based on socioeconomic and climatic data, and analyzed the relationship between extreme weather conditions and brucellosis incidence using copula models. RESULTS: In total, 327,456 brucellosis cases were reported in China in 2014-2020 (monthly average of 3898 cases). The incidence of brucellosis was distinctly seasonal, with a high incidence in spring and summer and an average annual peak in May. The incidence rate was highest in the northern regions' arid and continental climatic zones (1.88 and 0.47 per million people, respectively) and lowest in the tropics (0.003 per million people). The incidence of brucellosis showed opposite trends of decrease and increase in northern and southern China, respectively, with an overall severe epidemic in northern China. Most regression models using socioeconomic and climatic data cannot predict brucellosis incidence. The SARIMAX model was suitable for brucellosis prediction. There were significant negative correlations between the proportion of extreme weather values for both high sunshine and high humidity and the incidence of brucellosis as follows: high sunshine, [Formula: see text] = -0.59 and -0.69 in arid and temperate zones; high humidity, [Formula: see text] = -0.62, -0.64, and -0.65 in arid, temperate, and tropical zones. CONCLUSIONS: Significant seasonal and climatic zone differences were observed for brucellosis incidence in China. Sunlight, humidity, and wind speed significantly influenced brucellosis. The SARIMAX model performed better for brucellosis prediction than did the regression model. Notably, high sunshine and humidity values in extreme weather conditions negatively affect brucellosis. Brucellosis should be managed according to the "One Health" concept.

Using a grey relational analysis in an improved Grunow-Finke assessment tool to detect unnatural epidemics.

The Grunow-Finke epidemiological assessment tool (GFT) has several limitations in its ability to differentiate between natural and man-made epidemics. Our study aimed to improve the GFT and analyze historical epidemics to validate the model. Using a gray relational analysis (GRA), we improved the GFT by revising the existing standards and adding five new standards. We then removed the artificial weights and final decision threshold. Finally, by using typically unnatural epidemic events as references, we used the GRA to calculate the unnatural probability and obtain assessment results. Using the advanced tool, we conducted retrospective and case analyses to test its performance. In the validation set of 13 historical epidemics, unnatural and natural epidemics were divided into two categories near the unnatural probability of 45%, showing evident differences (p < 0.01) and an assessment accuracy close to 100%. The unnatural probabilities of the Ebola virus disease of 2013 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome of 2012 were 30.6% and 36.1%, respectively. Our advanced epidemic assessment tool improved the accuracy of the original GFT from approximately 55% to approximately 100% and reduced the impact of human factors on these outcomes effectively.

Quantitative analysis of the impact of various urban socioeconomic indicators on search-engine-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence.

Numerous studies have proposed search engine-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, their estimation models do not consider the impact of various urban socioeconomic indicators (USIs). This study quantitatively analysed the impact of various USIs on search engine-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence using 15 USIs (including total population, gross regional product (GRP), and population density) from 369 cities in China. The results suggested that 13 USIs affected either the correlation (SC-corr) or time lag (SC-lag) between search engine query volume and new COVID-19 cases ( p <0.05). Total population and GRP impacted SC-corr considerably, with their correlation coefficients r for SC-corr being 0.65 and 0.59, respectively. Total population, GRP per capita, and proportion of the population with a high school diploma or higher had simultaneous positive impacts on SC-corr and SC-lag ( p <0.05); these three indicators explained 37-50% of the total variation in SC-corr and SC-lag. Estimations for different urban agglomerations revealed that the goodness of fit, R 2 , for search engine-based estimation was more than 0.6 only when total urban population, GRP per capita, and proportion of the population with a high school diploma or higher exceeded 11.08 million, 120,700, and 38.13%, respectively. A greater urban size indicated higher accuracy of search engine-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence. Therefore, the accuracy and time lag for search engine-based estimation of infectious disease prevalence can be improved only when the total urban population, GRP per capita, and proportion of the population with a high school diploma or higher are greater than the aforementioned thresholds.

Disulfiram Sensitizes a Therapeutic-Resistant Glioblastoma to the TGF-ß Receptor Inhibitor.

Despite neurosurgery following radiation and chemotherapy, residual glioblastoma (GBM) cells develop therapeutic resistance (TR) leading to recurrence. The GBM heterogeneity confers TR. Therefore, an effective strategy must target cancer stem cells (CSCs) and other malignant cancer cells. TGF-ß and mesenchymal transition are the indicators for poor prognoses. The activity of aldehyde dehydrogenases (ALDHs) is a functional CSC marker. However, the interplay between TGF-ß and ALDHs remains unclear. We developed radiation-resistant and radiation-temozolomide-resistant GBM models to investigate the underlying mechanisms conferring TR. Galunisertib is a drug targeting TGF-ß receptors. Disulfiram (DSF) is an anti-alcoholism drug which functions by inhibiting ALDHs. The anti-tumor effects of combining DSF and Galunisertib were evaluated by in vitro cell grow, wound healing, Transwell assays, and in vivo orthotopic GBM model. Mesenchymal-like phenotype was facilitated by TGF-ß in TR GBM. Additionally, TR activated ALDHs. DSF inhibited TR-induced cell migration and tumor sphere formation. However, DSF did not affect the tumor growth in vivo. Spectacularly, DSF sensitized TR GBM to Galunisertib both in vitro and in vivo. ALDH activity positively correlated with TGF-ß-induced mesenchymal properties in TR GBM. CSCs and mesenchymal-like GBM cells targeted together by combining DSF and Galunisertib may be a good therapeutic strategy for recurrent GBM patients.

WNK4 kinase: role of chloride sensing in the distal convoluted tubule.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review focuses on recent efforts in identifying with-no-lysine kinase 4 (WNK4) as a physiological intracellular chloride sensor and exploring regulators of intracellular chloride concentration ([Cl-]i) in the distal convoluted tubule (DCT). RECENT FINDINGS: The discovery of WNK1's chloride-binding site provides the mechanistic details of the chloride-sensing regulation of WNK kinases. The subsequent in-vitro studies reveal that the chloride sensitivities of WNK kinases were variable. Because of its highest chloride sensitivity and dominant expression, WNK4 emerges as the leading candidate of the chloride sensor in DCT. The presentation of hypertension and increased sodium-chloride cotransporter (NCC) activity in chloride-insensitive WNK4 mice proved that WNK4 is inhibitable by physiological [Cl-]i in DCT. The chloride-mediated WNK4 regulation is responsible for hypokalemia-induced NCC activation but unnecessary for hyperkalemia-induced NCC deactivation. This chloride-sensing mechanism requires basolateral potassium and chloride channels or cotransporters, including Kir4.1/5.1, ClC-Kb, and possibly KCCs, to modulate [Cl-]i in response to the changes of plasma potassium. SUMMARY: WNK4 is both a master NCC stimulator and an in-vivo chloride sensor in DCT. The understanding of chloride-mediated regulation of WNK4 explains the inverse relationship between dietary potassium intake and NCC activity.

Pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6 and CCL2 suppress expression of circadian gene Period2 in mammary epithelial cells.

Chronic inflammation is known to contribute to tumor initiation and cancer progression. In breast tissue, the core circadian gene Period (PER)2 plays a critical role in mammary gland development and possesses tumor suppressor function. Interleukin (IL)-6 and C-C motif chemokine ligand (CCL) 2 are among the most abundant cytokines in the inflammatory microenvironment. We found that acute stimulation by IL-6/CCL2 reduced PER2 expression in non-tumorigenic breast epithelial cells. Longer term exposure to IL-6/CCL2 suppressed PER2 to an even lower level. IL-6 activated STAT3/NFκB p50 signaling to recruit HDAC1 to the PER2 promoter. CCL2 activated the PI3K/AKT pathway to promote ELK-1 cytoplasm-to-nucleus translocation, recruit HDAC1 to the proximal PER2 promoter and facilitate DNMT3-EZH2-PER2 promoter association. Ectopic expression of PER2 inhibited IL-6 or CCL2 induced mammosphere forming ability and reduced sphere size indicating that PER2 repression in breast epithelial cells can be crucial to activate tumorigenesis in an inflammatory microenvironment. The diminished expression of PER2 can be observed over a time scale of hours to weeks following IL-6/CCL2 stimulation suggesting that PER2 suppression occurs in the early stage of the interaction between an inflammatory microenvironment and normal breast epithelial cells. These data show new mechanisms by which mammary cells interact with a cancerous microenvironment and provide additional evidence that PER2 expression contributes to breast tumorigenesis.