Fast and scalable ensemble learning method for versatile polygenic risk prediction.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) enhance population risk stratification and advance personalized medicine, but existing methods face several limitations, encompassing issues related to computational burden, predictive accuracy, and adaptability to a wide range of genetic architectures. To address these issues, we propose Aggregated L0Learn using Summary-level data (ALL-Sum), a fast and scalable ensemble learning method for computing PRS using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). ALL-Sum leverages a L0L2 penalized regression and ensemble learning across tuning parameters to flexibly model traits with diverse genetic architectures. In extensive large-scale simulations across a wide range of polygenicity and GWAS sample sizes, ALL-Sum consistently outperformed popular alternative methods in terms of prediction accuracy, runtime, and memory usage by 10%, 20-fold, and threefold, respectively, and demonstrated robustness to diverse genetic architectures. We validated the performance of ALL-Sum in real data analysis of 11 complex traits using GWAS summary statistics from nine data sources, including the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium, Breast Cancer Association Consortium, and FinnGen Biobank, with validation in the UK Biobank. Our results show that on average, ALL-Sum obtained PRS with 25% higher accuracy on average, with 15 times faster computation and half the memory than the current state-of-the-art methods, and had robust performance across a wide range of traits and diseases. Furthermore, our method demonstrates stable prediction when using linkage disequilibrium computed from different data sources. ALL-Sum is available as a user-friendly R software package with publicly available reference data for streamlined analysis.

Single-cell RNA sequencing reveals placental response under environmental stress.

The placenta is crucial for fetal development, yet the impact of environmental stressors such as arsenic exposure remains poorly understood. We apply single-cell RNA sequencing to analyze the response of the mouse placenta to arsenic, revealing cell-type-specific gene expression, function, and pathological changes. Notably, the Prap1 gene, which encodes proline-rich acidic protein 1 (PRAP1), is significantly upregulated in 26 placental cell types including various trophoblast cells. Our study shows a female-biased increase in PRAP1 in response to arsenic and localizes it in the placenta. In vitro and ex vivo experiments confirm PRAP1 upregulation following arsenic treatment and demonstrate that recombinant PRAP1 protein reduces arsenic-induced cytotoxicity and downregulates cell cycle pathways in human trophoblast cells. Moreover, PRAP1 knockdown differentially affects cell cycle processes, proliferation, and cell death depending on the presence of arsenic. Our findings provide insights into the placental response to environmental stress, offering potential preventative and therapeutic approaches for environment-related adverse outcomes in mothers and children.

Synthetic surrogates improve power for genome-wide association studies of partially missing phenotypes in population biobanks.

Within population biobanks, incomplete measurement of certain traits limits the power for genetic discovery. Machine learning is increasingly used to impute the missing values from the available data. However, performing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on imputed traits can introduce spurious associations, identifying genetic variants that are not associated with the original trait. Here we introduce a new method, synthetic surrogate (SynSurr) analysis, which makes GWAS on imputed phenotypes robust to imputation errors. Rather than replacing missing values, SynSurr jointly analyzes the original and imputed traits. We show that SynSurr estimates the same genetic effect as standard GWAS and improves power in proportion to the quality of the imputations. SynSurr requires a commonly made missing-at-random assumption but relaxes the requirements of existing imputation methods by not requiring correct model specification. We present extensive simulations and ablation analyses to validate SynSurr and apply it to empower the GWAS of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry traits within the UK Biobank.

Additional impact of genetic ancestry over race/ethnicity to prevalence of KRAS mutations and allele-specific subtypes in non-small cell lung cancer.

The KRAS mutation is the most common oncogenic driver in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, a detailed understanding of how self-reported race and/or ethnicity (SIRE), genetically inferred ancestry (GIA), and their interaction affect KRAS mutation is largely unknown. Here, we investigated the associations between SIRE, quantitative GIA, and KRAS mutation and its allele-specific subtypes in a multi-ethnic cohort of 3,918 patients from the Boston Lung Cancer Survival cohort and the Chinese OrigiMed cohort with an independent validation cohort of 1,450 patients with NSCLC. This comprehensive analysis included detailed covariates such as age at diagnosis, sex, clinical stage, cancer histology, and smoking status. We report that SIRE is significantly associated with KRAS mutations, modified by sex, with SIRE-Asian patients showing lower rates of KRAS mutation, transversion substitution, and the allele-specific subtype KRASG12C compared to SIRE-White patients after adjusting for potential confounders. Moreover, GIA was found to correlate with KRAS mutations, where patients with a higher proportion of European ancestry had an increased risk of KRAS mutations, especially more transition substitutions and KRASG12D. Notably, among SIRE-White patients, an increase in European ancestry was linked to a higher likelihood of KRAS mutations, whereas an increase in admixed American ancestry was associated with a reduced likelihood, suggesting that quantitative GIA offers additional information beyond SIRE. The association of SIRE, GIA, and their interplay with KRAS driver mutations in NSCLC highlights the importance of incorporating both into population-based cancer research, aiming to refine clinical decision-making processes and mitigate health disparities.

Whole genome sequencing based analysis of inflammation biomarkers in the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) consortium.

Inflammation biomarkers can provide valuable insight into the role of inflammatory processes in many diseases and conditions. Sequencing based analyses of such biomarkers can also serve as an exemplar of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits. To evaluate the biological insight, which can be provided by a multi-ancestry, whole-genome based association study, we performed a comprehensive analysis of 21 inflammation biomarkers from up to 38 465 individuals with whole-genome sequencing from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program (with varying sample size by trait, where the minimum sample size was n = 737 for MMP-1). We identified 22 distinct single-variant associations across 6 traits-E-selectin, intercellular adhesion molecule 1, interleukin-6, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity and mass, and P-selectin-that remained significant after conditioning on previously identified associations for these inflammatory biomarkers. We further expanded upon known biomarker associations by pairing the single-variant analysis with a rare variant set-based analysis that further identified 19 significant rare variant set-based associations with 5 traits. These signals were distinct from both significant single variant association signals within TOPMed and genetic signals observed in prior studies, demonstrating the complementary value of performing both single and rare variant analyses when analyzing quantitative traits. We also confirm several previously reported signals from semi-quantitative proteomics platforms. Many of these signals demonstrate the extensive allelic heterogeneity and ancestry-differentiated variant-trait associations common for inflammation biomarkers, a characteristic we hypothesize will be increasingly observed with well-powered, large-scale analyses of complex traits.

Genomic Insights for Personalized Care: Motivating At-Risk Individuals Toward Evidence-Based Health Practices.

Background: Lung cancer and tobacco use pose significant global health challenges, necessitating a comprehensive translational roadmap for improved prevention strategies. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are powerful tools for patient risk stratification but have not yet been widely used in primary care for lung cancer, particularly in diverse patient populations. Methods: We propose the GREAT care paradigm, which employs PRSs to stratify disease risk and personalize interventions. We developed PRSs using large-scale multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies and standardized PRS distributions across all ancestries. We applied our PRSs to 796 individuals from the GISC Trial, 350,154 from UK Biobank (UKBB), and 210,826 from All of Us Research Program (AoU), totaling 561,776 individuals of diverse ancestry. Results: Significant odds ratios (ORs) for lung cancer and difficulty quitting smoking were observed in both UKBB and AoU. For lung cancer, the ORs for individuals in the highest risk group (top 20% versus bottom 20%) were 1.85 (95% CI: 1.58 - 2.18) in UKBB and 2.39 (95% CI: 1.93 - 2.97) in AoU. For difficulty quitting smoking, the ORs (top 33% versus bottom 33%) were 1.36 (95% CI: 1.32 - 1.41) in UKBB and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.28 - 1.36) in AoU. Conclusion: Our PRS-based intervention model leverages large-scale genetic data for robust risk assessment across populations. This model will be evaluated in two cluster-randomized clinical trials aimed at motivating health behavior changes in high-risk patients of diverse ancestry. This pioneering approach integrates genomic insights into primary care, promising improved outcomes in cancer prevention and tobacco treatment.

Impact of individual level uncertainty of lung cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) on risk stratification.

BACKGROUND: Although polygenic risk score (PRS) has emerged as a promising tool for predicting cancer risk from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the individual-level accuracy of lung cancer PRS and the extent to which its impact on subsequent clinical applications remains largely unexplored. METHODS: Lung cancer PRSs and confidence/credible interval (CI) were constructed using two statistical approaches for each individual: (1) the weighted sum of 16 GWAS-derived significant SNP loci and the CI through the bootstrapping method (PRS-16-CV) and (2) LDpred2 and the CI through posteriors sampling (PRS-Bayes), among 17,166 lung cancer cases and 12,894 controls with European ancestry from the International Lung Cancer Consortium. Individuals were classified into different genetic risk subgroups based on the relationship between their own PRS mean/PRS CI and the population level threshold. RESULTS: Considerable variances in PRS point estimates at the individual level were observed for both methods, with an average standard deviation (s.d.) of 0.12 for PRS-16-CV and a much larger s.d. of 0.88 for PRS-Bayes. Using PRS-16-CV, only 25.0% of individuals with PRS point estimates in the lowest decile of PRS and 16.8% in the highest decile have their entire 95% CI fully contained in the lowest and highest decile, respectively, while PRS-Bayes was unable to find any eligible individuals. Only 19% of the individuals were concordantly identified as having high genetic risk (> 90th percentile) using the two PRS estimators. An increased relative risk of lung cancer comparing the highest PRS percentile to the lowest was observed when taking the CI into account (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 2.12-3.50, P-value = 4.13 × 10-15) compared to using PRS-16-CV mean (OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.99-2.49, P-value = 5.70 × 10-46). Improved risk prediction performance with higher AUC was consistently observed in individuals identified by PRS-16-CV CI, and the best performance was achieved by incorporating age, gender, and detailed smoking pack-years (AUC: 0.73, 95% CI = 0.72-0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer PRS estimates using different methods have modest correlations at the individual level, highlighting the importance of considering individual-level uncertainty when evaluating the practical utility of PRS.

Host genetic variants, Epstein-Barr virus subtypes, and the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Assessment of interaction and mediation.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms are well-known risk factors for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, the combined effects between HLA and EBV on the risk of NPC are unknown. We applied a causal inference framework to disentangle interaction and mediation effects between two host HLA SNPs, rs2860580 and rs2894207, and EBV variant 163364 with a population-based case-control study in NPC-endemic southern China. We discovered the strong interaction effects between the high-risk EBV subtype and both HLA SNPs on NPC risk (rs2860580, relative excess risk due to interaction [RERI] = 4.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.03-6.14; rs2894207, RERI = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.59-5.15), accounting for the majority of genetic risk effects. These results indicate that HLA genes and the high-risk EBV have joint effects on NPC risk. Prevention strategies targeting the high-risk EBV subtype would largely reduce NPC risk associated with EBV and host genetic susceptibility.

Daily positive and negative affect during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic influenced emotional experiences globally. We examined daily positive and negative affect between May/June 2020 and February 2021 (N = 151,049; 3,509,982 observations) using a convenience sample from a national mobile application-based survey that asked for daily affect reports. Four questions were examined: (1) How did people in the United States feel from May/June 2020 to February 2021?; (2) What demographic variables are related to positive and negative affect?; (3) What is the relationship between experienced stressors and daily affect?; and (4) What is the relationship between daily affect and preventive behavior? Positive affect increased, and negative decreased over time. Demographic differences mirrored those from before the pandemic (e.g., younger participants reported more negative and less positive affect). Stressors such as feeling unwell, experiencing COVID-19 symptoms, exposure to COVID-19, and lack of sleep were associated with less positive and more negative affect. Exercising protective behaviors predicted future affect, and affect also predicted future protective behaviors (e.g., less protective behavior when happy but more when grateful and thoughtful). The implications for public health communication were discussed.

Learning Lessons on Reproducibility and Replicability in Large Scale Genome-Wide Association Studies.

Reproducibility and replicability play a pivotal role in science. The article reflects on reproducibility and replicability as they figure in large scale genome-wide association studies. Overall, we emphasize the importance of enhancing data reproducibility, analysis reproducibility, and result replicability. We make recommendations pertaining to the development of study designs that address 1) batch effects and selection bias, 2) the incorporation of discrete discovery and replication phases, and 3) the procurement of a large sample size. We emphasize the importance of systematic and transparent data generation, processing, and quality control pipelines, as well as a rigorous field-specific standardized analysis protocol, We offer guidance with respect to collaborative frameworks, open access analysis tools, and software, and the use of supporting mandates, infrastructure, and repositories for data and resource sharing. Finally, we identify the role of incentives and culture in fueling the production of reproducible and replicable research through partnerships of researchers, funding agencies, and journals.

Challenges and Opportunities in Statistics and Data Science: Ten Research Areas.

As a discipline that deals with many aspects of data, statistics is a critical pillar in the rapidly evolving landscape of data science. The increasingly vital role of data, especially big data, in many applications, presents the field of statistics with unparalleled challenges and exciting opportunities. Statistics plays a pivotal role in data science by assisting with the use of data and decision making in the face of uncertainty. In this article, we present ten research areas that could make statistics and data science more impactful on science and society. Focusing on these areas will help better transform data into knowledge, actionable insights and deliverables, and promote more collaboration with computer and other quantitative scientists and domain scientists.