FTO-rs9939609 Polymorphism is a Predictor of Future Type 2 Diabetes: A Population-Based Prospective Study.

The study aimed to evaluate the contribution of the FTO A/T polymorphism (rs9939609) to the prediction of the future type 2 diabetes (T2D). A population-based prospective study included 1443 nondiabetic subjects at baseline, and they were examined for developing T2D after 5-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the hazard ratio (HR) of rs9939609 to the future T2D in the models adjusted for the confounding factors including socio-economic status, lifestyle factors (smoking and drinking history, sporting habits, and leisure time), and clinical patterns (obese status, blood pressures, and dyslipidemia) at baseline. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to measure the power to predict individuals with T2D. The FTO-rs9939609 polymorphism was a significant predictor of future T2D in the model unadjusted, and it remained significant in the final model after adjustment for the confounding factors, showing an additive effect of the A-allele (HR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.02-1.78, P = 0.036, AUC = 0.676). For normoglycemic subjects at baseline, the similar final adjusted model reported the increased HR per A-allele (HR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.09-2.07, P = 0.012, AUC = 0.697). Five-year changes in BMI, waist circumference, and systolic blood pressure did not remove the contribution of rs9939609 to increased HR of T2D. The population attributable risk for risk genotype was 13.6%. In conclusion, the study indicates that the FTO-rs9939609 polymorphism is an important genetic predictor for future T2D in Vietnamese population.

Incidence and prediction nomogram for metabolic syndrome in a middle-aged Vietnamese population: a 5-year follow-up study.

PURPOSE: We aimed to determine the incidence and prediction nomogram for new-onset metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a middle-aged Vietnamese population. METHODS: A population-based prospective study was conducted in 1150 participants aged 40-64 years without MetS at baseline and followed-up for 5 years. Data on lifestyle factors, socioeconomic status, family diabetes history, and anthropometric measures were collected. MetS incidence was estimated in general population and subgroup of age, gender, and MetS components. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for MetS. A prediction nomogram was developed and checked for discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: During median follow-up of 5.14 years, the accumulate MetS incidence rate was 23.4% (95% CI: 22.2-24.7). The annual incidence rate (95% CI) was 52.9 (46.7-60.1) per 1000 person-years in general population and higher in women [56.6 (48.7-65.9)] than men [46.5 (36.9-59.3)]. The HRs (95% CI) for developing MetS were gender [females vs males: 2.04 (1.26-3.29)], advanced age [1.02 (1.01-1.04) per one year], waist circumference [1.08 (1.06-1.10) per one cm] and other obesity-related traits, and systolic blood pressure [1.02 (1.01-1.03) per one mmHg]. The prediction nomogram for MetS had a good discrimination (C-statistics = 0.742) and fit calibration (mean absolute error = 0.009) with a positive net benefit in the predicted probability thresholds between 0.13 and 0.70. CONCLUSIONS: The study is the first to indicate an alarmingly high incidence of MetS in a middle-aged population in Vietnam. The nomogram with simply applicable variables would be useful to qualify individual risk of developing MetS.