Loss of Sunda clouded leopards and forest integrity drive potential impacts of mesopredator release on vulnerable avifauna.

Amongst the unintended consequences of anthropogenic landscape conversion is declining apex predator abundance linked to loss of forest integrity, which can potentially re-order trophic networks. One such re-ordering, known as mesopredator release, occurs when medium-sized predators, also called mesopredators, rapidly increase in abundance following the decline in apex predator abundance, consequently reducing the abundance of mesopredator prey, notably including terrestrial avifauna. We examine the cascading impacts of declining Sunda clouded leopard abundance, itself consequent upon a reduction in forest integrity, on the mesopredator community of Sabah, Malaysia, to determine whether the phenomenon of mesopredator release is manifest and specifically whether it impacts the terrestrial avifauna community of pheasants and pittas. To explore this trophic interaction, we used a piecewise structural equation model to compare changes in the relative abundance of organisms. Our results suggest that loss of forest integrity may have broad impacts on the community and trigger mesopredator release, the two acting additively in their impact on already vulnerable species of terrestrial avifauna: a result not previously documented in tropical systems and rarely detected even on a global scale. The limiting effect that the Sunda clouded leopard has on the Sunda leopard cat could illuminate the mechanism whereby mesopredator release impacts this system. Both Bulwer's pheasant and pittas appear to be significantly impacted by the increase in Sunda leopard cats, while the great argus pheasant shows similar compelling, although not statistically significant, declines as Sunda leopard cats increase. The inverse relationship between Sunda clouded leopards and Sunda leopard cats suggests that if a mesopredator release exists it could have downstream consequences for some terrestrial avifauna. These results suggest the under-studied interface between mammalian carnivores and avifauna, or more broadly species interactions in general, could offer important conservation tool for holistic ecosystem conservation efforts.

Altitude, latitude and climate zone as determinants of mountain hare (Lepus timidus) coat colour change.

Local adaptation to annually changing environments has evolved in numerous species. Seasonal coat colour change is an adaptation that has evolved in multiple mammal and bird species occupying areas that experience seasonal snow cover. It has a critical impact on fitness as predation risk may increase when an individual is mismatched against its habitat's background colour. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between landscape covariates and moult timing in a native winter-adapted herbivore, the mountain hare (Lepus timidus), throughout Norway. Data was collected between 2011 and 2019 at 678 camera trap locations deployed across an environmental gradient. Based on this data, we created a Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that quantified the correlations between landscape covariates and coat colour phenology and analysed among season and year moult timing variation. Our results demonstrate that mountain hare moult timing is strongly correlated with altitude and latitude with hares that live at higher latitudes and altitudes keeping their winter white coats for longer than their conspecifics that inhabit lower latitudes and altitudes. Moult timing was also weakly correlated with climate zone with hares that live in coastal climates keeping their winter white coats for longer than hares that live in continental climates. We found evidence of some among year moult timing variation in spring, but not in autumn. We conclude that mountain hare moult timing has adapted to local environmental conditions throughout Norway.

Why humans kill animals and why we cannot avoid it.

Killing animals has been a ubiquitous human behaviour throughout history, yet it is becoming increasingly controversial and criticised in some parts of contemporary human society. Here we review 10 primary reasons why humans kill animals, discuss the necessity (or not) of these forms of killing, and describe the global ecological context for human killing of animals. Humans historically and currently kill animals either directly or indirectly for the following reasons: (1) wild harvest or food acquisition, (2) human health and safety, (3) agriculture and aquaculture, (4) urbanisation and industrialisation, (5) invasive, overabundant or nuisance wildlife control, (6) threatened species conservation, (7) recreation, sport or entertainment, (8) mercy or compassion, (9) cultural and religious practice, and (10) research, education and testing. While the necessity of some forms of animal killing is debatable and further depends on individual values, we emphasise that several of these forms of animal killing are a necessary component of our inescapable involvement in a single, functioning, finite, global food web. We conclude that humans (and all other animals) cannot live in a way that does not require animal killing either directly or indirectly, but humans can modify some of these killing behaviours in ways that improve the welfare of animals while they are alive, or to reduce animal suffering whenever they must be killed. We encourage a constructive dialogue that (1) accepts and permits human participation in one enormous global food web dependent on animal killing and (2) focuses on animal welfare and environmental sustainability. Doing so will improve the lives of both wild and domestic animals to a greater extent than efforts to avoid, prohibit or vilify human animal-killing behaviour.

Building a resilient coexistence with wildlife in a more crowded world.

There is an urgent need to sustainably coexist with wildlife. However, realizing this goal is hampered by scant understanding of the processes that facilitate and maintain coexistence. Here, we synthesize human-wildlife interactions into eight archetypal outcomes, from eradication to sustained co-benefits, which collectively serve as a heuristic for forms of coexistence across a wide range of species and systems worldwide. We utilize resilience theory to elucidate how and why human-wildlife systems shift between these archetypes, yielding insights on research and policy priorities. We underscore the importance of governance structures that actively enhance the resilience of coexistence.

Predicting kill sites of an apex predator from GPS data in different multiprey systems.

Kill rates are a central parameter to assess the impact of predation on prey species. An accurate estimation of kill rates requires a correct identification of kill sites, often achieved by field-checking GPS location clusters (GLCs). However, there are potential sources of error included in kill-site identification, such as failing to detect GLCs that are kill sites, and misclassifying the generated GLCs (e.g., kill for nonkill) that were not field checked. Here, we address these two sources of error using a large GPS dataset of collared Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), an apex predator of conservation concern in Europe, in three multiprey systems, with different combinations of wild, semidomestic, and domestic prey. We first used a subsampling approach to investigate how different GPS-fix schedules affected the detection of GLC-indicated kill sites. Then, we evaluated the potential of the random forest algorithm to classify GLCs as nonkills, small prey kills, and ungulate kills. We show that the number of fixes can be reduced from seven to three fixes per night without missing more than 5% of the ungulate kills, in a system composed of wild prey. Reducing the number of fixes per 24 h decreased the probability of detecting GLCs connected with kill sites, particularly those of semidomestic or domestic prey, and small prey. Random forest successfully predicted between 73%-90% of ungulate kills, but failed to classify most small prey in all systems, with sensitivity (true positive rate) lower than 65%. Additionally, removing domestic prey improved the algorithm's overall accuracy. We provide a set of recommendations for studies focusing on kill-site detection that can be considered for other large carnivore species in addition to the Eurasian lynx. We recommend caution when working in systems including domestic prey, as the odds of underestimating kill rates are higher.

Evaluating expert-based habitat suitability information of terrestrial mammals with GPS-tracking data.

Aim: Macroecological studies that require habitat suitability data for many species often derive this information from expert opinion. However, expert-based information is inherently subjective and thus prone to errors. The increasing availability of GPS tracking data offers opportunities to evaluate and supplement expert-based information with detailed empirical evidence. Here, we compared expert-based habitat suitability information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with habitat suitability information derived from GPS-tracking data of 1,498 individuals from 49 mammal species. Location: Worldwide. Time period: 1998-2021. Major taxa studied: Forty-nine terrestrial mammal species. Methods: Using GPS data, we estimated two measures of habitat suitability for each individual animal: proportional habitat use (proportion of GPS locations within a habitat type), and selection ratio (habitat use relative to its availability). For each individual we then evaluated whether the GPS-based habitat suitability measures were in agreement with the IUCN data. To that end, we calculated the probability that the ranking of empirical habitat suitability measures was in agreement with IUCN's classification into suitable, marginal and unsuitable habitat types. Results: IUCN habitat suitability data were in accordance with the GPS data (> 95% probability of agreement) for 33 out of 49 species based on proportional habitat use estimates and for 25 out of 49 species based on selection ratios. In addition, 37 and 34 species had a > 50% probability of agreement based on proportional habitat use and selection ratios, respectively. Main conclusions: We show how GPS-tracking data can be used to evaluate IUCN habitat suitability data. Our findings indicate that for the majority of species included in this study, it is appropriate to use IUCN habitat suitability data in macroecological studies. Furthermore, we show that GPS-tracking data can be used to identify and prioritize species and habitat types for re-evaluation of IUCN habitat suitability data.

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe.

The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was ~10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions.

Quantifying the checks and balances of collaborative governance systems for adaptive carnivore management.

Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub-national levels whose interactions and collective decision-making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, assessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare.We combine a state-space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision-making models that together predict annual harvest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway.We reveal a tendency for administrative decision-makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx population size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision-making models, we show that such buffering of political biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long term.Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of collaborative governance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi-stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. Nevertheless, we highlight important inter-regional differences in decision-making and population forecasts, the socio-ecological drivers of which need to be better understood to prevent future population declines. Synthesis and applications. Our work analyses the sequence of decisions leading to yearly quotas for lynx harvest in Norway, highlighting the collaborative and structural processes that together shape harvest sustainability. In doing so, we provide a predictive framework to evaluate participatory decision-making processes in wildlife management, paving the way for scientists and decision-makers to collaborate more widely in identifying where decision biases might lie and how institutional arrangements can be optimised to minimise them. We emphasise, however, that this is only possible if wildlife management decisions are documented and transparent.

Smartphone app reveals that lynx avoid human recreationists on local scale, but not home range scale.

Outdoor recreation is increasing and affects habitat use and selection by wildlife. These effects are challenging to study, especially for elusive species with large spatial requirements, as it is hard to obtain reliable proxies of recreational intensity over extensive areas. Commonly used proxies, such as the density of, or distance to, hiking paths, ignore outdoor recreation occurring on other linear feature types. Here we utilized crowdsourced data from the Strava training app to obtain a large-scale proxy for pedestrian outdoor recreation intensity in southeast Norway. We used the proxy and GPS-tracking data from collared Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to investigate how recreation affects habitat selection at the home range scale and local scale by lynx during summer. We fitted resource selection functions at the two scales using conditional logistic regression. Our analysis revealed that lynx avoided areas of recreational activity at the local scale, but not at home range scale. Nonetheless, lynx frequently used areas associated with recreation, and to a greater degree at night than during the day. Our results suggest that local-scale avoidance of recreation and temporal adjustments of habitat use by lynx mitigate the need for a home range-scale response towards recreation. Scale-dependent responses and temporal adjustments in habitat use may facilitate coexistence between humans and large carnivores.

Heuristics for the sustainable harvest of wildlife in stochastic social-ecological systems.

Sustainable wildlife harvest is challenging due to the complexity of uncertain social-ecological systems, and diverse stakeholder perspectives of sustainability. In these systems, semi-complex stochastic simulation models can provide heuristics that bridge the gap between highly simplified theoretical models and highly context-specific case-studies. Such heuristics allow for more nuanced recommendations in low-knowledge contexts, and an improved understanding of model sensitivity and transferability to novel contexts. We develop semi-complex Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) models capturing dynamics and variability in ecological processes, monitoring, decision-making, and harvest implementation, under a diverse range of contexts. Results reveal the fundamental challenges of achieving sustainability in wildlife harvest. Environmental contexts were important in determining optimal harvest parameters, but overall, evaluation contexts more strongly influenced perceived outcomes, optimal harvest parameters and optimal harvest strategies. Importantly, simple composite metrics popular in the theoretical literature (e.g. focusing on maximizing yield and population persistence only) often diverged from more holistic composite metrics that include a wider range of population and harvest objectives, and better reflect the trade-offs in real world applied contexts. While adaptive harvest strategies were most frequently preferred, particularly for more complex environmental contexts (e.g. high uncertainty or variability), our simulations map out cases where these heuristics may not hold. Despite not always being the optimal solution, overall adaptive harvest strategies resulted in the least value forgone, and are likely to give the best outcomes under future climatic variability and uncertainty. This demonstrates the potential value of heuristics for guiding applied management.

Identifying and correcting spatial bias in opportunistic citizen science data for wild ungulates in Norway.

Many publications make use of opportunistic data, such as citizen science observation data, to infer large-scale properties of species' distributions. However, the few publications that use opportunistic citizen science data to study animal ecology at a habitat level do so without accounting for spatial biases in opportunistic records or using methods that are difficult to generalize. In this study, we explore the biases that exist in opportunistic observations and suggest an approach to correct for them. We first examined the extent of the biases in opportunistic citizen science observations of three wild ungulate species in Norway by comparing them to data from GPS telemetry. We then quantified the extent of the biases by specifying a model of the biases. From the bias model, we sampled available locations within the species' home range. Along with opportunistic observations, we used the corrected availability locations to estimate a resource selection function (RSF). We tested this method with simulations and empirical datasets for the three species. We compared the results of our correction method to RSFs obtained using opportunistic observations without correction and to RSFs using GPS-telemetry data. Finally, we compared habitat suitability maps obtained using each of these models. Opportunistic observations are more affected by human access and visibility than locations derived from GPS telemetry. This has consequences for drawing inferences about species' ecology. Models naïvely using opportunistic observations in habitat-use studies can result in spurious inferences. However, sampling availability locations based on the spatial biases in opportunistic data improves the estimation of the species' RSFs and predicted habitat suitability maps in some cases. This study highlights the challenges and opportunities of using opportunistic observations in habitat-use studies. While our method is not foolproof it is a first step toward unlocking the potential of opportunistic citizen science data for habitat-use studies.

Camera trap records of leucistic Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) in central Norway.

Coat coloration plays an important role in communication, camouflage, and sexual selection in animals. Genetic mutations can lead to anomalous colorations such as melanism and leucism, where animals appear, respectively, darker or lighter than normal. Reporting abnormal coloration in wild animals is an important first step to understand the distribution, prevalence, and potential fitness consequences of these rare events. Here, we report several records of suspected leucism in the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) in a population in central Norway. Several camera traps recorded at least two leucistic individuals between 2017 and 2020. It took considerable effort, almost 400,000 camera trap nights over a period of 10 years all over Norway, to obtain a total of eleven records of leucistic badgers, indicating the rarity of this phenotype. It is unclear what has caused the presence of multiple leucistic badgers in a single population, but recent colonization and lack of predators might have played a role. Due to our observations, future studies can now be developed to study the underlying mechanisms and potential consequences of leucism in this badger population. The increasing use of networks of camera traps in wildlife research will provide new opportunities to record rare coloration in wild animals.

Coexistence of large mammals and humans is possible in Europe's anthropogenic landscapes.

A critical question in the conservation of large mammals in the Anthropocene is to know the extent to which they can tolerate human disturbance. Surprisingly, little quantitative data is available about large-scale effects of human activity and land use on their broad scale distribution in Europe. In this study, we quantify the relative importance of human land use and protected areas as opposed to biophysical constraints on large mammal distribution. We analyze data on large mammal distribution to quantify the relative effect of anthropogenic variables on species' distribution as opposed to biophysical constraints. We finally assess the effect of anthropogenic variables on the size of the species' niche by simulating a scenario where we assumed no anthropogenic pressure on the landscape. Results show that large mammal distribution is primarily constrained by biophysical constraints rather than anthropogenic variables. This finding offers grounds for cautious optimism concerning wildlife conservation in the Anthropocene.

Body size and digestive system shape resource selection by ungulates: A cross-taxa test of the forage maturation hypothesis.

The forage maturation hypothesis (FMH) states that energy intake for ungulates is maximised when forage biomass is at intermediate levels. Nevertheless, metabolic allometry and different digestive systems suggest that resource selection should vary across ungulate species. By combining GPS relocations with remotely sensed data on forage characteristics and surface water, we quantified the effect of body size and digestive system in determining movements of 30 populations of hindgut fermenters (equids) and ruminants across biomes. Selection for intermediate forage biomass was negatively related to body size, regardless of digestive system. Selection for proximity to surface water was stronger for equids relative to ruminants, regardless of body size. To be more generalisable, we suggest that the FMH explicitly incorporate contingencies in body size and digestive system, with small-bodied ruminants selecting more strongly for potential energy intake, and hindgut fermenters selecting more strongly for surface water.

Extreme home range sizes among Eurasian lynx at the northern edge of their biogeographic range.

Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) have a wide distribution across Eurasia. The northern edge of this distribution is in Norway, where they reach up to 72 degrees north. We conducted a study of lynx space use in this region from 2007 to 2013 using GPS telemetry. The home range sizes averaged 2,606 (± 438 SE) km2 for males (n = 9 ranges) and 1,456 (± 179 SE) km2 for females (n = 24 ranges). These are the largest home ranges reported for any large felid, and indeed are only matched by polar bears, arctic living wolves, and grizzly bears among all the Carnivora. The habitat occupied was almost entirely treeless alpine tundra, with home ranges only containing from 20% to 25% of forest. These data have clear implications for the spatial planning of lynx management in the far north as the current management zones are located in unsuitable habitats and are not large enough to encompass individual lynx movements.

Dynamics of Gastro-Intestinal Strongyle Parasites in a Group of Translocated, Wild-Captured Asiatic Wild Asses in Kazakhstan.

Asiatic wild ass (Kulan, Equus hemionus) population range and numbers became severely reduced and a reintroduction project is currently aiming to re-establish a population in the Central Steppe of Kazakhstan. Pre-emptive deworming is often recommended for equid translocations but eliminating parasites prior to translocation could cause disruptions in a balanced host-parasite relationship, adding an additional stressor to an already stressful intervention involving capture, transport, and adaptation to a new environment. Following a disease risk assessment, we decided against pre-emptive deworming and focused on monitoring the first group of nine translocated kulan in a large acclimatization enclosure prior to release. Over the 5-month acclimatization period, we regularly collected fecal samples and analyzed the shedding intensity of gastro-intestinal parasite eggs, obtained time budgets through behavioral observations, and visually assessed body condition. We identified strongyles (Strongylinae and Cyathostominae) and pinworms (Oxyuris equi) in fecal samples. All individuals shed strongyle eggs and two of the nine individuals had higher shedding intensities, but rarely reached levels for which deworming is recommended. All kulan appeared healthy throughout the observation period, aggressive interactions were very rare, and time budgets were very similar and dominated by feeding. Our results suggest that in translocation projects where the risk of introducing new parasites is minimal, pre-emptive treatment in wild equids can be replaced with non-invasive monitoring during the acclimatization period. We acknowledge that the small number of kulan, the large size of the enclosure, and the low temperatures during the animals stay in the acclimatization enclosure may all have reduced infestation pressure.

Wave-like Patterns of Plant Phenology Determine Ungulate Movement Tactics.

Animals exhibit a diversity of movement tactics [1]. Tracking resources that change across space and time is predicted to be a fundamental driver of animal movement [2]. For example, some migratory ungulates (i.e., hooved mammals) closely track the progression of highly nutritious plant green-up, a phenomenon called "green-wave surfing" [3-5]. Yet general principles describing how the dynamic nature of resources determine movement tactics are lacking [6]. We tested an emerging theory that predicts surfing and the existence of migratory behavior will be favored in environments where green-up is fleeting and moves sequentially across large landscapes (i.e., wave-like green-up) [7]. Landscapes exhibiting wave-like patterns of green-up facilitated surfing and explained the existence of migratory behavior across 61 populations of four ungulate species on two continents (n = 1,696 individuals). At the species level, foraging benefits were equivalent between tactics, suggesting that each movement tactic is fine-tuned to local patterns of plant phenology. For decades, ecologists have sought to understand how animals move to select habitat, commonly defining habitat as a set of static patches [8, 9]. Our findings indicate that animal movement tactics emerge as a function of the flux of resources across space and time, underscoring the need to redefine habitat to include its dynamic attributes. As global habitats continue to be modified by anthropogenic disturbance and climate change [10], our synthesis provides a generalizable framework to understand how animal movement will be influenced by altered patterns of resource phenology.

The impact of leopards (Panthera pardus) on livestock losses and human injuries in a human-use landscape in Maharashtra, India.

There are many ways in which large carnivores and humans interact in shared spaces. In this study we provide insights into human-leopard relationships in an entirely modified, human-dominated landscape inhabited by dense populations of humans (266 per km2), their livestock (162 per km2) and relatively high densities of large predators (10 per 100 km2). No human deaths were recorded, and livestock losses to leopards numbered only 0.45 per km2per year (averaged over three years) despite the almost complete dependency of leopards on domestic animals as prey. Predation was not the major cause of livestock mortality as diseases and natural causes caused higher losses (80% of self-reported losses). We also found that ineffective night time livestock protection and the presence of domestic dogs increased the probability of a farmer facing leopard attacks on livestock. Resident farmers faced much lower livestock losses to leopard predation in contrast to the migratory shepherds who reported much higher losses, but rarely availed of the government compensation schemes. We recommend that local wildlife managers continue to shift from reactive measures such as leopard captures after livestock attacks to proactive measures such as focusing on effective livestock protection and informing the affected communities about safety measures to be taken where leopards occur in rural landscapes. The natural causes of livestock deaths due do diseases may be better prevented by involving animal husbandry department for timely vaccinations and treatment.

Ungulate management in European national parks: Why a more integrated European policy is needed.

1. Primary objectives of national parks usually include both, the protection of natural processes and species conservation. When these objectives conflict, as occurs because of the cascading effects of large mammals (i.e., ungulates and large carnivores) on lower trophic levels, park managers have to decide upon the appropriate management while considering various local circumstances. 2. To analyse if ungulate management strategies are in accordance with the objectives defined for protected areas, we assessed the current status of ungulate management across European national parks using the naturalness concept and identified the variables that influence the management. 3. We collected data on ungulate management from 209 European national parks in 29 countries by means of a large-scale questionnaire survey. Ungulate management in the parks was compared by creating two naturalness scores. The first score reflects ungulate and large carnivore species compositions, and the second evaluates human intervention on ungulate populations. We then tested whether the two naturalness score categories are influenced by the management objectives, park size, years since establishment, percentage of government-owned land, and human impact on the environment (human influence index) using two generalized additive mixed models. 4. In 67.9% of the national parks, wildlife is regulated by culling (40.2%) or hunting (10.5%) or both (17.2%). Artificial feeding occurred in 81.3% of the national parks and only 28.5% of the national parks had a non-intervention zone covering at least 75% of the area. Furthermore, ungulate management differed greatly among the different countries, likely because of differences in hunting traditions and cultural and political backgrounds. Ungulate management was also influenced by park size, human impact on the landscape, and national park objectives, but after removing these variables from the full model the reduced models only showed a small change in the deviance explained. In areas with higher anthropogenic pressure, wildlife diversity tended to be lower and a higher number of domesticated species tended to be present. Human intervention (culling and artificial feeding) was lower in smaller national parks and when park objectives followed those set by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). 5. Our study shows that many European national parks do not fulfil the aims of protected area management as set by IUCN guidelines. In contrast to the USA and Canada, Europe currently has no common ungulate management policy within national parks. This lack of a common policy together with differences in species composition, hunting traditions, and cultural or political context has led to differences in ungulate management among European countries. To fulfil the aims and objectives of national parks and to develop ungulate management strategies further, we highlight the importance of creating a more integrated European ungulate management policy to meet the aims of national parks.

Harvest models of small populations of a large carnivore using Bayesian forecasting.

Harvesting large carnivores can be a management tool for meeting politically set goals for their desired abundance. However, harvesting carnivores creates its own set of conflicts in both society and among conservation professionals, where one consequence is a need to demonstrate that management is sustainable, evidence-based, and guided by science. Furthermore, because large carnivores often also have high degrees of legal protection, harvest quotas have to be carefully justified and constantly adjusted to avoid damaging their conservation status. We developed a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of Eurasian lynx harvesting in Scandinavia. The model uses data from the annual monitoring of lynx abundance and results from long-term field research on lynx biology, which has provided detailed estimates of key demographic parameters. We used the model to predict the probability that the forecasted population size will be below or above the management objectives when subjected to different harvest quotas. The model presented here informs decision makers about the policy risks of alternative harvest levels. Earlier versions of the model have been available for wildlife managers in both Sweden and Norway to guide lynx harvest quotas and the model predictions showed good agreement with observations. We combined monitoring data with data on vital rates and were able to estimate unobserved additional mortality rates, which are most probably due to poaching. In both countries, the past quota setting strategy suggests that there has been a de facto threshold strategy with increasing proportion, which means that there is no harvest below a certain population size, but above this threshold there is an increasing proportion of the population harvested as the population size increases. The annual assessment of the monitoring results, the use of forecasting models, and a threshold harvest approach to quota setting will all reduce the risk of lynx population sizes moving outside the desired goals. The approach we illustrate could be adapted to other populations of mammals worldwide.