Modifiable lifestyle factors and lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation: longitudinal data from the Korea NHIS-HealS and UK Biobank cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The reason for higher incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe compared with East Asia is unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between modifiable lifestyle factors and lifetime risk of AF in Europe and East Asia, along with race/ethnic similarities and disparities. METHODS: 1:1 propensity score matched pairs of 242,763 East Asians and 242,763 White Europeans without AF were analyzed. Modifiable lifestyle factors considered were blood pressure, body mass index, cigarette smoking, diabetes, alcohol consumption, and physical activity, categorized as non-adverse or adverse levels. Lifetime risk of AF was estimated from the index age of 45 years to the attained age of 85 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The overall lifetime risk of AF was higher in White Europeans than East Asians (20.9% vs 15.4%, p < 0.001). The lifetime risk of AF was similar between the two races in individuals with non-adverse lifestyle factor profiles (13.4% vs 12.9%, p = 0.575), whereas it was higher in White Europeans with adverse lifestyle factor profiles (22.1% vs 15.8%, p < 0.001). The difference in the lifetime risk of AF between the two races increased as the burden of adverse lifestyle factors worsened (1 adverse lifestyle factor; 4.3% to ≥ 3 adverse lifestyle factors; 11.2%). Compared with East Asians, the relative risk of AF in White Europeans was 23% and 62% higher for one (hazard ratio [HR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.29) and ≥ 3 adverse lifestyle factors (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.51-1.75), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The overall higher lifetime risk of AF in White Europeans compared with East Asians might be attributable to adverse lifestyle factors. Adherence to healthy lifestyle factors was associated with the lifetime risk of AF of about 1 in 8 regardless of race/ethnicity.

ALDH2 polymorphism and myocardial infarction: From alcohol metabolism to redox regulation.

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains a leading cause of death worldwide. Increased formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) during the early reperfusion phase is thought to trigger lipid peroxidation and disrupt redox homeostasis, leading to myocardial injury. Whilst the mitochondrial enzyme aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) is chiefly recognised for its central role in ethanol metabolism, substantial experimental evidence suggests an additional cardioprotective role for ALDH2 independent of alcohol intake, which mitigates myocardial injury by detoxifying breakdown products of lipid peroxidation including the reactive aldehydes, malondialdehyde (MDA) and 4-hydroxynonenal (4-HNE). Epidemiological evidence suggests that an ALDH2 mutant variant with reduced activity that is highly prevalent in the East Asian population increases AMI risk. Additional studies have uncovered a strong association between coronary heart disease and this ALDH2 mutant variant. It appears this enzyme polymorphism (in particular, in ALDH2*2/2) carriers has the potential to have wide-ranging effects on thiol reactivity, redox tone and therefore numerous redox-related signaling processes, resilience of the heart to cope with lifestyle-related and environmental stressors, and the ability of the whole body to achieve redox balance. In this review, we summarize the journey of ALDH2 from a mitochondrial reductase linked to alcohol metabolism, via pre-clinical studies aimed at stimulating ALDH2 activity to reduce myocardial injury to clinical evidence for its protective role in the heart.

Lipid-based insulin-resistance markers predict cardiovascular events in metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance (IR) is the cornerstone of Metabolic Dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD), pathophysiologically being the key link between MASLD, metabolic disorders, and cardiovascular (CV) diseases. There are no prospective studies comparing the predictive values of different markers of insulin resistance (IR) in identifying the presence of MASLD and the associated risk of cardiovascular events (CVEs). METHODS: Post hoc analysis of the prospective Plinio Study, involving dysmetabolic patients evaluated for the presence of MASLD. The IR markers considered were Homeostatic Model Assessment for IR (HOMA-IR), Triglycerides-Glycemia (TyG) index, Triglycerides to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C), Lipid Accumulation Product (LAP) and Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI). Receiver operative characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to find the optimal cut-offs of each IR marker for detecting MASLD and predicting CVEs in MASLD patients. Logistic and Cox multivariable regression analyses were performed, after dichotomizing the IR markers based on the optimal cut-offs, to assess the factors independently associated with MASLD and the risk of CVEs. RESULTS: The study included 772 patients (age 55.6 ± 12.1 years, 39.4% women), of whom 82.8% had MASLD. VAI (Area Under the Curve [AUC] 0.731), TyG Index (AUC 0.723), and TG/HDL-C ratio (AUC: 0.721) predicted MASLD but was greater with HOMA-IR (AUC: 0.792) and LAP (AUC: 0.787). After a median follow-up of 48.7 (25.4-75.8) months, 53 MASLD patients experienced CVEs (1.8%/year). TyG index (AUC: 0.630), LAP (AUC: 0.626), TG/HDL-C (AUC: 0.614), and VAI (AUC: 0.590) demonstrated comparable, modest predictive values in assessing the CVEs risk in MASLD patients. CONCLUSION: In dysmetabolic patients HOMA-IR and LAP showed the best accuracy in detecting MASLD. The possible use of lipid-based IR markers in stratifying the CV risk in patients with MASLD needs further validation in larger cohorts.

Early Rhythm Control and Incident Dementia in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Prior Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Although early rhythm control (ERC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) reduces the risk of stroke, there is no evidence thus far on whether ERC reduces the risk of developing dementia in patients with AF and prior stroke. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate whether ERC reduces the risk of developing dementia in patients with new-onset AF and prior stroke. METHODS: Using the Korean nationwide claims database, we identified patients with new-onset AF and prior stroke between 2010 and 2016. Patients who received rhythm control therapy within 1 year after AF onset were defined as the ERC group, otherwise patients were categorized as the usual care group. A propensity score weighting method was used to balance the 2 groups. Incident dementia defined by relevant diagnostic codes was evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 41,370 patients were included (mean age 70 ± 11 years; mean CHA2DS2-VASc score 5.3±1.6): 10,213 in the ERC group and 31,157 in the usual care group. Compared with usual care, ERC was associated with lower risks of all dementia, Alzheimer's dementia, and vascular dementia (weighted HRs [95% CIs], 0.825 [0.776-0.876], 0.831 [0.774-0.893], and 0.800 [0.702-0.913], respectively, all P < 0.001). The benefit of ERC was slightly accentuated in the younger age group (<65 years). The beneficial effect of ERC in reducing the risk of dementia was consistent regardless of the characteristics of prior stroke. CONCLUSIONS: ERC might be beneficial in the prevention of dementia in patients with AF and prior stroke. To prevent the progression of cognitive dysfunction, ERC should be considered in this population.

Impaired endogenous fibrinolysis status: a potential prognostic predictor in ischemic stroke.

Stroke confers a severe global healthcare burden, hence exploring risk factors for stroke occurrence and prognosis is important for stroke prevention and post-stroke management strategies. Endogenous fibrinolysis is a spontaneous physiological protective mechanism that dissolves thrombus to maintain vascular patency. Recently, impaired endogenous fibrinolysis has been considered as a potential novel cardiovascular risk factor, but its link with ischaemic stroke in the past has been underappreciated. In this review, we summarize the latest mechanisms of endogenous fibrinolysis, review the current evidence and data on endogenous fibrinolysis in ischemic stroke. It includes the structure of thrombus in ischemic stroke patients, the effect of fibrin structure on the endogenous fibrinolytic efficiency, and the association between intravenous thrombolytic therapy and endogenous fibrinolysis in ischemic stroke. It also includes the single factors (tissue plasminogen activator, urokinase plasminogen activator, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, thrombin activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor, complement component 3, complement component 5, alpha-2-antiplasmin, plasmin-alpha-2-antiplasmin complex, and lipoprotein[a]), and the global assessments of endogenous fibrinolysis status (thromboelastography, rotational thromboelastometry, and global thrombosis test), and their potential as predictors to identify occurrence or unfavorable functional outcomes of ischemic stroke. All of these assessments present advantages and limitations, and we suggest that the global thrombosis test may be more appropriate for detecting impaired endogenous fibrinolysis status in ischemic stroke patients.

Educational status and the risk of adverse outcomes in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the prospective APHRS-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of educational status (ES) on the clinical course of Asian patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: We used data from the prospective APHRS-AF Registry. ES was classified as follows: low (primary school), medium (secondary), and high (University). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death, thromboembolic events, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure. Secondary outcomes were each component of the primary outcome, cardiovascular death, and major bleeding. The one-year risk of primary and secondary outcomes was assessed through Cox-regressions. Adherence to the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway was assessed. RESULTS: Among 2697 AF patients (69±12 years, 34.8% females), 34.6% had low ES; 37.3% had medium ES; and 28.1% had high ES. Compared to patients with medium-high ES, patients with low ES were older, more often females, with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, and a lower ABC pathway adherence (30.4% vs. 40.2%, P<0.001). On multivariable analysis, low ES was associated with a higher risk for the primary outcome (HR 1.52,95%CI 1.11-2.06) and all-cause death (HR 1.76,95%CI 1.10-2.83) than medium-high ES. A significant interaction was found for the risk of composite outcome among the different age strata, with the higher risk in the elderly (P for int=0.008), whereas the beneficial effect of the ABC pathway was irrespective of ES (P for int=0.691). CONCLUSIONS: In Asian AF patients, low ES is associated with high mortality. Efforts to improve education and include ES evaluation in the integrated care approach for AF are necessary to reduce the cardiovascular burden in these patients.

Cardiac rehabilitation and adverse events among adult patients with simple congenital heart disease and heart failure.

Aims: Improved care has resulted in prolonged survival of patients with congenital heart disease (ConHD), increasing age-related cardiovascular comorbidities. Although cardiovascular rehabilitation (CR) represents evidence-based care for heart failure (HF), the clinical impact of CR in patients with ConHD who developed HF during adulthood is unclear. We investigated 12-month mortality and morbidity in patients with simple ConHD diagnosed with HF with CR versus without CR. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted for the time period February 2004 - February 2024. Utilizing TriNetX, a global federated health research network, a real-world dataset of simple ConHD patients was acquired to compare patients with vs. without (controls) prescription for exercise-based CR. Patients were propensity-score matched for age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidities, procedures, and medication. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality, ischemic stroke, and acute coronary syndrome (major adverse cardiovascular events; MACE) within 12 months. Results: Following propensity score matching, the total cohort consisted of 6,866 simple ConHD patients with HF. CR was associated with significantly lower odds for MACE (odds ratio (OR) 0.61 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.54-0.69]) and its individual components all-cause mortality (OR 0.40 [95 % CI 0.33-0.47]) and ischemic stroke (OR 0.75 [95 % CI 0.64-0.88]), but not acute coronary syndrome (OR 1.24 [95 % CI 0.91-1.69]). Conclusion: CR was associated with significantly lower 12-month MACE in patients with simple ConHD with concomitant HF compared to usual care.

Predicting multifaceted risks using machine learning in atrial fibrillation: insights from GLORIA-AF study.

Aims: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a higher risk of ischaemic stroke and death. While anticoagulants are effective at reducing these risks, they increase the risk of bleeding. Current clinical risk scores only perform modestly in predicting adverse outcomes, especially for the outcome of death. We aimed to test the multi-label gradient boosting decision tree (ML-GBDT) model in predicting risks for adverse outcomes in a prospective global AF registry. Methods and results: We studied patients from phase II/III of the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation registry between 2011 and 2020. The outcomes were all-cause death, ischaemic stroke, and major bleeding within 1 year following the AF. We trained the ML-GBDT model and compared its discrimination with the clinical scores in predicting patient outcomes. A total of 25 656 patients were included [mean age 70.3 years (SD 10.3); 44.8% female]. Within 1 year after AF, ischaemic stroke occurred in 215 (0.8%), major bleeding in 405 (1.6%), and death in 897 (3.5%) patients. Our model achieved an optimized area under the curve in predicting death (0.785, 95% CI: 0.757-0.813) compared with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (0.747, P = 0.007), ischaemic stroke (0.691, 0.626-0.756) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.613, P = 0.028), and major bleeding (0.698, 0.651-0.745) as opposed to HAS-BLED (0.607, P = 0.002), with improvement in net reclassification index (10.0, 12.5, and 23.6%, respectively). Conclusion: The ML-GBDT model outperformed clinical risk scores in predicting the risks in patients with AF. This approach could be used as a single multifaceted holistic tool to optimize patient risk assessment and mitigate adverse outcomes when managing AF.

Oral anticoagulants and cognitive impairment in patients with atrial fibrillation: A systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis.

BACKGROUND: This systematic review assesses the likelihood of developing dementia and cognitive impairment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) as opposed to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). METHODS: We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA), which encompassed both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. The objective was to assess the impact of NOACs and VKAs on the incidence of dementia in individuals diagnosed with AF. RESULTS: Out of 1914 studies that were screened, 31 studies were included in the final analysis, which consisted of nine RCTs or their subsequent post-hoc analyses, in addition to 22 observational studies. The meta-analysis shows that NOACs were associated with a decreased probability of developing dementia of any cause [Rate Ratio (RR): 0.88; 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI): 0.82-0.94], especially in patients below the age of 75 (RR: 0.78; 95 % CI: 0.73-0.84). Consistent patterns were observed across all forms of dementia and cognitive function decline. The overall evidence indicates notable variability in the outcome with a moderate-to-low degree of certainty. The TSA suggests that the total sample size of the included trials (155,647 patients) was significantly smaller than the required information size of 784,692 patients to discern the true effect of NOAC versus VKA in terms of reducing dementia risk. CONCLUSION: NOACs may reduce the likelihood of developing dementia in patients with AF, particularly in those under the age of 75. This review highlights the urgent necessity for thorough research to determine the efficacy of NOACs in safeguarding cognitive health.

Association Between Remnant Cholesterol and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: Population-Based Evidence From a Large-Scale Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the relationship between remnant cholesterol (RC) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) risk remains sparse and limited. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants were enrolled between 2006 and 2010 and followed up to 2021. The multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the relationship between RC quartiles and risk of incident AF. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the potential modification of the association and the robustness of the main findings. A total of 422 316 participants (mean age, 56 years; 54% women) were included for analyses. During a median follow-up of 11.9 years (first quartile-third quartile, 11.6-13.2 years), there were 24 774 AF events documented with an incidence of 4.92 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 4.86-4.98). Participants in higher RC quartiles had a lower risk of incident AF than those in the lowest quartile (first quartile): hazard ratio (HR)=0.96 (95% CI, 0.91-1.00) for second quartile; HR=0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96) for third quartile; and HR=0.85 (95% CI, 0.81-0.89) for fourth quartile (P for trend <0.001). The association between RC quartiles and risk of incident AF was stronger in participants aged ≥65 years, in men, and in participants without history of diabetes when compared with control groups (P<0.001 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of data from this large-scale prospective cohort study, elevated RC was associated with a lower risk of incident AF.

Effectiveness and safety in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients switching from warfarin to direct oral anticoagulants in US healthcare claims.

INTRODUCTION: There is a paucity of real-world studies examining the risks of stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding (MB) among non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients switching from warfarin to a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC). This retrospective study was conducted to compare the stroke/SE and MB risks between patients switched from warfarin to apixaban, dabigatran, or rivaroxaban in real-world clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used data from four United States commercial claims databases from January 1, 2012 to June 30, 2019. The study population included NVAF patients initially treated with warfarin and switched to apixaban, dabigatran, or rivaroxaban within 90 days of their warfarin prescription ending. Patients were matched 1:1 between the DOACs in each database using propensity scores and then pooled for the final analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the risk of stroke/SE and MB. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The final population consisted of 2,611 apixaban-dabigatran, 12,165 apixaban-rivaroxaban, and 2,672 dabigatran-rivaroxaban pairs. Apixaban vs. dabigatran was associated with a lower risk of stroke/SE (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-0.96) and MB (HR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50-0.91). Apixaban vs. rivaroxaban was associated with a similar risk of stroke/SE (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.73-1.07) and a lower risk of MB (HR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.52-0.68). There was no significant difference in either risk between dabigatran and rivaroxaban. These results provide important insights into how the risks of stroke/SE and MB for NVAF patients vary when switching from warfarin to different DOACs.

Prognostic implications of heart failure stages among Chinese community populations: insight from a nationwide population-based study.

Background: In light of high burden of heart failure (HF) in China, studies of prognostic implication of HF stages are important. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between HF stages and mortality risk in Chinese community populations. Methods: Nationwide representative populations aged ≥35 years (n = 23,284, mean age 56.9 years, women 53.2%) were enrolled from 2012 to 2016. According to the international HF guidelines, participants were divided into stage A, B and C, and those who did not qualify these stages were categorized as apparently-healthy group. Association between HF stages and all-cause, cardiovascular [CV] and non-CV death was evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional regression analysis. Findings: During a median follow-up of 4.7 years (109,902.8 person-years), 1314 deaths occurred. Age-adjusted incidence rate of all-cause death was 5.3 in apparently-healthy, 7.8 in stage A, 8.6 in stage B and 24.6 in stage C groups per 1000 person-years. In reference to apparently-healthy group, adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause death was 1.90 (95% CI: 1.47-2.45), 2.43 (95% CI: 1.89-3.13) and 6.40 (95% CI: 4.56-8.99) for stage A, B and C. Advancing HF stages were associated with increasing risks for all-cause, CV and non-CV death (P-trend <0.05). For all-cause death, population attributable fraction due to stage A, B and C were 21.2%, 33.4% and 4.9%, accounting for 1,933,385, 3,045,993 and 446,867 deaths in China in 2018. Interpretation: Advancing HF stages were associated with increasing risk mortality. Development and implementation of early screening and targeted interventions are urgently needed to reduce HF burdens in China. Funding: This work was supported by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (grant 2017-I2M-1-004), the Projects in the Chinese National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period (No.: 2011BAI11B01), and the Project Entrusted by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHC2020-609).

Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models.

INTRODUCTION: There is currently no guidance on how to assess the calibration of multistate models used for risk prediction. We introduce several techniques that can be used to produce calibration plots for the transition probabilities of a multistate model, before assessing their performance in the presence of random and independent censoring through a simulation. METHODS: We studied pseudo-values based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, binary logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (BLR-IPCW), and multinomial logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (MLR-IPCW). The MLR-IPCW approach results in a calibration scatter plot, providing extra insight about the calibration. We simulated data with varying levels of censoring and evaluated the ability of each method to estimate the calibration curve for a set of predicted transition probabilities. We also developed evaluated the calibration of a model predicting the incidence of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease among a cohort of patients derived from linked primary and secondary healthcare records. RESULTS: The pseudo-value, BLR-IPCW, and MLR-IPCW approaches give unbiased estimates of the calibration curves under random censoring. These methods remained predominately unbiased in the presence of independent censoring, even if the censoring mechanism was strongly associated with the outcome, with bias concentrated in low-density regions of predicted transition probability. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend implementing either the pseudo-value or BLR-IPCW approaches to produce a calibration curve, combined with the MLR-IPCW approach to produce a calibration scatter plot. The methods have been incorporated into the "calibmsm" R package available on CRAN.

Effect of combination pioglitazone with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists on outcomes in type 2 diabetes: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and real-world study from an international federated database.

AIMS: To evaluate the efficacy and cardiovascular outcomes of combination pioglitazone with either a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) or a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) by conducting a systematic review, meta-analysis, and analysis of a large international real-world database. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS and Web of Science to identify relevant articles for inclusion (PROSPERO [CRD: 42023483126]). Nineteen studies assessing pioglitazone + SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs versus controls were identified, 16 of which were randomized controlled trials. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane-endorsed tools and quality of evidence was assessed using GRADE. We additionally performed a retrospective cohort study of all individuals aged 18 years or over with T2D, using the TriNetX platform. We included propensity-score-matched individuals who were treated for at least 1 year with pioglitazone and a GLP-1RA or pioglitazone and an SGLT2 inhibitor, compared against GLP-1RA and SGLT2 inhibitor monotherapy. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, chronic kidney disease and composite stroke and transient ischaemic attack. RESULTS: The average follow-up in the included studies ranged from 24 to 52 weeks. Combination of pioglitazone with a GLP-1RA reduced glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and weight greater than in controls: mean differences -1% (95% confidence interval [CI] -1.27, -0.74) and -1.19 kg (95% CI -1.80, -0.58), respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) or mortality between groups: mean difference - 1.56 mmHg (95% CI -4.48, 1.35; p = 0.30) and relative risk (RR) 0.29 (95% CI 0.07-1.15; p = 0.08), respectively. Combination of pioglitazone with SGLT2 inhibitors reduced HbA1c, weight and SBP to a greater extent than control treatment: mean differences -0.48% (95% CI -0.67, -0.28), -2.3 kg (95% CI -2.72, -1.88) and -2.4 mmHg (95% CI -4.1, -0.7; p = 0.01), respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in mortality between groups (RR 1.81, 95% CI 0.30-10.97; p = 0.52). The included trials demonstrated a reduction in risk of heart failure with combination treatment. Similarly, from the real-world database (n = 25 230 identified), pioglitazone and SGLT2 inhibitor combination therapy was associated with reduced risk of heart failure compared to monotherapy alone (hazard ratio 0.50, 95% CI 0.38-0.65; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Both our systematic review/meta-analysis and the real-world dataset show that combination of pioglitazone with either GLP-1RAs or SGLT2 inhibitors is associated with increased weight loss and reduced risk of heart failure compared with monotherapy.

Artificial intelligence-enhanced electrocardiogram analysis for identifying cardiac autonomic neuropathy in patients with diabetes.

AIM: To develop and employ machine learning (ML) algorithms to analyse electrocardiograms (ECGs) for the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used motif and discord extraction techniques, alongside long short-term memory networks, to analyse 12-lead, 10-s ECG tracings to detect CAN in patients with diabetes. The performance of these methods with the support vector machine classification model was evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the following metrics: accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Among 205 patients (mean age 54 ± 17 years, 54% female), 100 were diagnosed with CAN, including 38 with definite or severe CAN (dsCAN) and 62 with early CAN (eCAN). The best model performance for dsCAN classification was achieved using both motifs and discords, with an accuracy of 0.92, an F1 score of 0.92, a recall at 0.94, a precision of 0.91, and an excellent AUC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-0.94). For the detection of any stage of CAN, the approach combining motifs and discords yielded the best results, with an accuracy of 0.65, F1 score of 0.68, a recall of 0.75, a precision of 0.68, and an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI 0.54-0.81). CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the potential of using ML techniques, particularly motifs and discords, to effectively detect dsCAN in patients with diabetes. This approach could be applied in large-scale screening of CAN, particularly to identify definite/severe CAN where cardiovascular risk factor modification may be initiated.

Ischaemic stroke in women with atrial fibrillation: temporal trends and clinical implications.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Female sex has been linked with higher risk of ischaemic stroke (IS) in atrial fibrillation (AF), but no prior study has examined temporal trends in the IS risk associated with female sex. METHODS: The registry-linkage Finnish AntiCoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation (FinACAF) study included all patients with AF in Finland from 2007 to 2018. Ischaemic stroke rates and rate ratios were computed. RESULTS: Overall, 229 565 patients with new-onset AF were identified (50.0% women; mean age 72.7 years). The crude IS incidence was higher in women than in men across the entire study period (21.1 vs. 14.9 events per 1000 patient-years, P < .001), and the incidence decreased both in men and women. In 2007-08, female sex was independently associated with a 20%-30% higher IS rate in the adjusted analyses, but this association attenuated and became statistically non-significant by the end of the observation period. Similar trends were observed when time with and without oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment was analysed, as well as when only time without OAC use was considered. The decrease in IS rate was driven by patients with high IS risk, whereas in patients with low or moderate IS risk, female sex was not associated with a higher IS rate. CONCLUSIONS: The association between female sex and IS rate has decreased and become non-significant over the course of the study period from 2007 to 2018, suggesting that female sex could be omitted as a factor when estimating expected IS rates and the need for OAC therapy in patients with AF.

Clinical Outcomes of Patients with Atrial Fibrillation who Survived from Bleeding Event: The Results from COOL-AF Thailand Registry.

BACKGROUND: Bleeding events are often reported among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), irrespective of antithrombotic use. This study is to determine clinical outcomes of patients with AF who survived from bleeding event. METHODS: We analyzed data from COOL-AF (Cohort of Antithrombotic Use and Optimal International Normalized Ratio Levels in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) Thailand registry. Outcomes of patients who experienced any bleeding were compared with patients who had never bleed. Time updated multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models were used to estimate the risk for clinical outcomes of patients with and without bleeding. RESULTS: Of total 3,405 patients (mean age: 67.8 ± 11.3 years; 41.9% female) in COOL-AF registry, 609 patients (17.9%) reported bleeding event occurs and 568 patients (93.3%) survived though hospital discharge. Patients who survived major bleeding (n = 126) were at increased risk for both death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 4.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.91-6.75, p < 0.001) and stroke/systemic embolism (adjusted HR: 4.49, 95% CI: 2.19-9.24, p < 0.001). Minor bleeding also increased subsequent death (adjusted HR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.56-2.90, p < 0.001). Up to 30% of patients who survived major bleeding and 6.3% of minor bleedings discontinued oral anticoagulation. Discontinuation was associated with very high death rate (42.1%), whereas patients who resumed oral anticoagulation after bleeding had lower mortality (10%). The most common causes of death in patients who survived a bleeding event were not related to cardiovascular causes nor bleeding. CONCLUSION: Patients with AF who have bleeding events have an increased risk for subsequent death and stroke and systemic embolism. These patients should be identified as vulnerable clinically complex patients and require a holistic approach to their AF management.

Efficacy and Safety of Combination Therapy with Low-Dose Rivaroxaban in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Objectives: To review the evidence on the effectiveness and safety of low-dose-rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily (LDR) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD) taking antiplatelets. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Efficacy endpoints were cardiovascular events (CVEs), myocardial infarction, stroke, all-cause, and cardiovascular death. Any, major, fatal bleeding, and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) were safety endpoints. Numbers needed to treat (NNT), and numbers needed to harm (NNH) were also calculated. Results: Seven RCTs were included with 45,836 patients: 34,276 with CAD and 11,560 with PAD. Overall, 4247 CVEs and 3082 bleedings were registered. LDR in association with either any antiplatelet drug or aspirin (ASA) alone reduced the risk of CVEs (hazard ratio [HR] 0.86, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.78-0.94) and ischemic stroke (HR 0.68, 95%CI 0.55-0.84). LDR + ASA increased the risk of major bleeding (HR 1.71, 95%CI 1.38-2.11) but no excess of fatal bleeding or ICH was found. The NNT to prevent one CVE for LDR + ASA was 63 (43-103) and the NNH to cause major bleeding was 107 (77-193). Conclusions: The combination of LDR with either antiplatelet drugs or low-dose aspirin reduces CVEs and ischemic stroke in patients with CAD/PAD. There was an increased risk of major bleeding but no excess of fatal or ICH was found. LDR seems to have a favorable net clinical benefit compared to ASA treatment alone.