Longitudinal trends of peripheral blood counts in polycythaemia vera and essential thrombocythemia patients in the UK.

There is sparse evidence of how well haematological targets are met in practice for essential thrombocythemia (ET) and polycythaemia vera (PV) patients. Patient data was collected between 2008 and 2020 from two UK NHS Trusts for ET and PV patients. Longitudinal changes in peripheral blood counts, including the proportion of patients meeting peripheral blood count remission, was modelled. Relative risk of cardiovascular-related events for patients achieving remission within 3-months was estimated. A total of 620 ET and 429 PV patients were analysed. For high-risk patients, haematological parameters decreased in the first months of observation then stabilised within normal reference ranges until year 5. Total time spent in peripheral blood count remission was 39.2% for ET and 29.1% for PV. A lower proportion of ET patients reached target platelet counts (48.3%) compared to WBC (79.1%), whilst PV patients were less likely to reach target haematocrit levels (56.9%) compared to platelets (77.3%) or WBC (74.6%). There was no statistically significant association between reaching target blood counts within 3-months and cardiovascular risk. Complete haematological remission remains a challenging target in managing PV and ET, however this study was unable to show statistically-significant evidence that this was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events.

Early risk assessment for COVID-19 patients from emergency department data using machine learning.

Since its emergence in late 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a pandemic with more than 55 million reported cases and 1.3 million estimated deaths worldwide. While epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 have been reported, risk factors underlying the transition from mild to severe disease among patients remain poorly understood. In this retrospective study, we analysed data of 879 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to a two-site NHS Trust hospital in London, England, between January 1st and May 26th, 2020, with a majority of cases occurring in March and April. We extracted anonymised demographic data, physiological clinical variables and laboratory results from electronic healthcare records (EHR) and applied multivariate logistic regression, random forest and extreme gradient boosted trees. To evaluate the potential for early risk assessment, we used data available during patients' initial presentation at the emergency department (ED) to predict deterioration to one of three clinical endpoints in the remainder of the hospital stay: admission to intensive care, need for invasive mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality. Based on the trained models, we extracted the most informative clinical features in determining these patient trajectories. Considering our inclusion criteria, we have identified 129 of 879 (15%) patients that required intensive care, 62 of 878 (7%) patients needing mechanical ventilation, and 193 of 619 (31%) cases of in-hospital mortality. Our models learned successfully from early clinical data and predicted clinical endpoints with high accuracy, the best model achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) scores of 0.76 to 0.87 (F1 scores of 0.42-0.60). Younger patient age was associated with an increased risk of receiving intensive care and ventilation, but lower risk of mortality. Clinical indicators of a patient's oxygen supply and selected laboratory results, such as blood lactate and creatinine levels, were most predictive of COVID-19 patient trajectories. Among COVID-19 patients machine learning can aid in the early identification of those with a poor prognosis, using EHR data collected during a patient's first presentation at ED. Patient age and measures of oxygenation status during ED stay are primary indicators of poor patient outcomes.

Gene-environment interaction with smoking for increased non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer tumor size.

BACKGROUND: Urinary bladder cancer (UBC) is one of few cancers with an established gene-environment interaction (GxE) with smoking. However, it is unknown whether the interaction with tobacco use is present non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) and characteristics of prognostic relevance. We aimed to investigate if smoking status and/or smoking intensity interact with the effect of discovered variants on key NMIBC characteristics of tumor grade, stage, size, and patient age within the Bladder Cancer Prognosis Programme (BCPP) cohort. METHODS: Analyzed sample consisted of 546 NMIBC patients with valid smoking data from the BCPP. In a previous genome-wide association study (GWAS), we have identified 61 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) potentially associated with the NMIBC characteristics of tumor stage, grade, size, and patient age. In the current analysis, we have tested these SNPs for GxE with smoking. RESULTS: Out of 61 SNPs, 10 have showed suggestion (statistical significance level of P<0.05) for GxE with NMIBC tumor size rs35225990, rs188958632, rs180910528, rs74603364, rs187040828, rs144383242, rs117587674, rs113705641, rs2937268, and chromosome 14:38247577. All SNPs were located across loci of 1p31.3, 3p26.1, 6q14.1, 14q21.1, and 13q14.13. In addition, two of the tested polymorphisms were suggestive for interaction with smoking intensity (chromosome 14:38247577 and rs2937268). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests interaction between genetic variance and smoking behavior for increased NMIBC tumor size at the time of diagnosis. Further replication is required to validate these findings.

External Replication of Urinary Bladder Cancer Prognostic Polymorphisms in the UK Biobank.

Introduction: Multiple studies have reported genetic associations with prognostic outcomes of urinary bladder cancer. However, the lack of replication of these associations prohibits establishing further evidence-based research directions. Moreover, there is a lack of independent bladder cancer patient samples that contain prognostic measures, making genetic replication analyses even more challenging. Materials and Methods: We have identified 1,534 eligible patients and used data on Hospital Episode Statistics in the UK Biobank to model variables of otherwise non-collected events on bladder cancer recurrence and progression. Data on survival was extracted from the Death Registry. We have used SNPTEST software to replicate previously reported genetic associations with bladder cancer recurrence (N = 69), progression (N = 23), survival (N = 53), and age at the time of diagnosis (N = 20). Results: Using our algorithm, we have identified 618 recurrence and 58 UBC progression events. In total, there were 209 deaths (106 UBC-specific). In replication analyses, eight SNPs have reached nominal statistical significance (p < 0.05). Rs2042329 (CWC27) for UBC recurrence; rs804256, rs4639, and rs804276 (in/close to NEIL2) for NMIBC recurrence; rs2293347 (EGFR) for UBC OS; rs3756712 (PDCD6) for NMIBC OS; rs2344673 (RGS5) for MIBC OS, and rs2297518 (NOS2) for UBC progression. However, none have remained significant after adjustments for multiple comparisons. Discussion: External replication in genetic epidemiology is an essential step to identify credible findings. In our study, we identify potential genetic targets of higher interest for UBC prognosis. In addition, we propose an algorithm for identifying UBC recurrence and progression using routinely-collected data on patient interventions.

Genome-wide Association Study for Tumour Stage, Grade, Size, and Age at Diagnosis of Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) causes a considerable health burden due to the high recurrence and progression rates. Past studies have identified multiple candidate loci associated with NMIBC prognosis, albeit lacking validation. Moreover, scarce reports exist on genetic susceptibility to independent prognostic predictors of NMIBC, such as stage or grade. OBJECTIVE: To investigate genetic associations with NMIBC tumour and patient characteristics at the time of diagnosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A sample of 653 NMIBC cases comes from the Bladder Cancer Prognosis Programme. Replication of the significant findings was conducted in the Nijmegen Bladder Cancer Study cohort (N=1470). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was carried out for outcomes of tumour size (as a continuous variable in centimetres), stage (Tis and T1 vs Ta), grade (G3 vs G2 and G1), and age (as continuous [years] and dichotomous [70.2 yr as a cut-off] variables). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Significant (p<5E-08) associations (N=61) with tumour size, stage, grade, and age were identified in the GWAS discovery stage. None of the variants were independently significantly associated in the replication cohort. A meta-analysis of both cohorts suggests that rs180940944 (13q13.3 locus, NBEA) was associated with tumour size as a continuous variable (ß=0.9cm, p=2.92E-09). However, other single nucleotide polymorphisms in this region did not show evidence of association in the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that rs180940944 (NBEA) is associated with an increased NMIBC tumour size at the time of diagnosis. Given study limitations, further replication is essential to validate the finding. PATIENT SUMMARY: The current study reports on a genome-wide association study on non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer tumour and patient characteristics. We suggest that NBEA gene might be associated with increased tumour size at the time of diagnosis. The result must be replicated to establish validity.

Systematic Review: Genetic Associations for Prognostic Factors of Urinary Bladder Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Many germline associations have been reported for urinary bladder cancer (UBC) outcomes and prognostic characteristics. It is unclear whether there are overlapping genetic patterns for various prognostic endpoints. We aimed to review contemporary literature on genetic associations with UBC prognostic outcomes and to identify potential overlap in reported genes. METHODS: EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PubMed databases were queried for relevant articles in English language without date restrictions. The initial search identified 1346 articles. After exclusions, 112 studies have been summarized. Cumulatively, 316 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were reported across prognostic outcomes (recurrence, progression, death) and characteristics (tumor stage, grade, size, age, risk group). There were considerable differences between studied outcomes in the context of genetic associations. The most commonly reported SNPs were located in OGG1, TP53, and MDM2. For outcomes with the highest number of reported associations (ie, recurrence and death), functional enrichment annotation yields different terms, potentially indicating separate biological mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that all UBC prognostic outcomes may have different biological origins with limited overlap. Further validation of these observations is essential to target a phenotype that could best predict patient outcome and advance current management practices.

Improved outcome of childhood acute myeloid leukemia in an Eastern European country: Lithuanian experience.

The reported treatment outcomes of children treated for cancer in Eastern European countries are inferior to those in Northern/Western Europe. We hypothesized that recent survival rates could be comparable to the current standards and performed a population-based analysis of treatment outcome of childhood acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in Lithuania, a small Eastern European country. Children < 18 years old who were treated for AML from 2000 to 2013 were included (n = 54). Estimates of 5-year event-free (EFS5y) and overall survival (OS5y) rates were analyzed. Comparing periods 2000-2006 (n = 32) and 2007-2013 (n = 22), the EFS5y improved from 31 to 63% (p = 0.04), and the OS5y improved from 31 to 72% (p = 0.02) because of reductions in toxicity-related mortality (42 vs. 15%, p = 0.08) and relapse (43 vs. 25%, p = 0.08). The most significant improvement was demonstrated in high-risk patients (OS5y improved from 26 to 75%, p = 0.02) who benefited from hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: the post-transplant EFS5y increased from 13 to 86% (p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The current survival rate of Lithuanian children treated for AML was comparable to the expected rate in other parts of Europe. What is Known: • In the last three decades, significant improvement has been achieved in treating childhood cancer, with an overall survival (OS) rate of > 80% in high-income countries. The difference in survival rates between Northern/Western and Eastern European countries as well as between high- and middle-/low-income countries is as much as 20%. Recently, the 5-year event-free survival rate of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has reached > 60% in high-income countries. The survival rates for myeloproliferative diseases were the lowest in Eastern European countries. • The reported inferior survival rates were calculated based on outcome data of patients treated until 2007. The recent survival rates in Eastern European countries are unknown. What is New: • Being a small Eastern European country, Lithuania has experienced good economic growth during the last decade. We hypothesized that economic growth and gain of experience could result in better survival rates of children treated for cancer in our country in recent years. • A population-based analysis of treatment outcome of childhood AML treated in Lithuania in the recent years was performed for the first time. The survival rates of childhood AML in Lithuania are comparable to those of other high-income countries. Current survival rates of children treated for cancer in Eastern European countries could be comparable to the best current standards contributing to better European survival rates of childhood cancer in general.

A prospective cohort study on dietary acrylamide intake and the risk for cutaneous malignant melanoma.

Epidemiological studies have shown inconsistent associations between dietary acrylamide exposure and the risk for various malignancies. This is the first epidemiological study on the association between acrylamide intake and the risk for cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). A case-cohort analysis was carried out within the prospective Netherlands Cohort Study on diet and cancer. Acrylamide intake was estimated from a food frequency questionnaire combined with acrylamide data for Dutch foods. After 17.3 years of follow-up, 501 microscopically confirmed cases of CMM were identified. There was an increased risk for CMM when dietary acrylamide was modeled as a continuous variable [hazard ratio: 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.26)] per 10 µg increment among men but there was no clear linear trend over the quintiles (Ptrend=0.12). No associations were observed for women. Our study provides some indications that dietary acrylamide may increase the risk for CMM in men.

Increasing attendance in a cervical cancer screening programme by personal invitation: experience of a Lithuanian primary health care centre.

BACKGROUND: High participation rates are an essential component of an effective screening programme and many approaches were introduced as being successful for enhancing compliance to screening guidelines. The aim of this study was to evaluate to which extent a personal invitation by mail increases the rate of attendance in a cervical cancer screening programme in a primary health care centre. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was carried out as a pilot project to gain insight into feasibility of applying a well-known compliance increasing measure in Lithuanian population. The study included a sample of women registered at the primary health care centre in Panevezys who had not participated in the cervical cancer screening programme for six and more years. Personal registered invitation letters to attend the primary health care centre for a Pap smear were sent out to 1789 women by mail. RESULTS: In total, 2195 women were tested during 2011 at the primary health care centre. 487 (22.2%) of them attended the screening programme after receiving a personal invitation letter. Response rate for attending screening after receiving a personal invitation letter was 27.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that personal invitation letters addressed to long-term non-attendees could markedly increase participation in cervical cancer screening in Lithuania.