Integrating quantitative microbiological risk assessment and disability-adjusted life years to evaluate the effects of urbanization on health risks for river recreationists.

Urban rivers provide an excellent opportunity for water recreation. This study probabilistically assessed health risks associated with water recreation in urban rivers in the Bitan Scenic Area, Taiwan, by employing quantitative microbial risk assessment and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Moreover, the effects of urbanization on the health risks of river recreation induced by waterborne pathogenic Escherichia coli (E. coli) were investigated. First, data on river E. coli levels were collected in both the Bitan Scenic Area and the upstream river section, and model parameters were obtained through a questionnaire administered to river recreationists. Monte Carlo simulation was then employed to address parameter uncertainty. Finally, DALYs were calculated to quantify the cumulative effects in terms of potential life lost and years lived with disability. The results indicated that the 90 % confidence intervals for the disease burden (DB) were 0.2-74.1 × 10-6, 0.01-94.0 × 10-6, and 0.3-128.9 × 10-6 DALY per person per year (pppy) for canoeing, swimming, and fishing, respectively, in the Bitan Scenic Area. Furthermore, urbanization near the Bitan Scenic Area approximately doubled the DB risks to river recreationists in upstream rural areas. At the 95th percentile, the DB risks exceeded the tolerances recommended by the World Health Organization (1 × 10-6) or U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1 × 10-4). The findings suggest that the simultaneous implementation of effluent sewer systems and best management practices can reduce health risks to river recreationists by at least half, reducing the DALY levels below 1 × 10-4 or even 1 × 10-5 pppy.

Seasonal assessment of risks to canoeists' health in a Taiwanese recreational river.

Canoeing is the most favorite recreational activity in several Taiwanese rivers. However, river water frequently contains elevated levels of pathogenic Escherichia coli, which has adverse effects on human health. This study adopted a quantitative microbial risk assessment to analyze seasonal risks to canoeists' health in the Dongshan River, Taiwan. First, river E. coli concentrations were statistically analyzed to determine the seasonal distributions. The exposure duration (ED) was determined by field observations. To propagate the parametric uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation was employed to model the probability distributions of seasonal pathogenic E. coli levels, ingestion rates, and ED for athletes. Finally, the beta-Poisson dose-response model was implemented to determine seasonal health risks for canoeists. The study results indicated that the health risks in infection probability ranged from 0.5 × 10-3 to 8.8 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day for tourists and 1.2 × 10-3 to 7.7 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day for athletes. The health risks in the Lizejian Bridge area for tourists exceeded an acceptable level suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 8 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day, in spring for an ED of 2 h/day, and the health risks for tourists and athletes approached this level in spring and winter for an ED exceeding or equaling 1.5 h/day. According to sensitivity analysis, the geometric standard deviation of river E. coli levels was the most sensitive parameter affecting seasonal risks to canoeists' health. To protect canoeists' health, effluent sewer systems, best management practices, and total maximum daily loads should be promptly implemented in this watershed.