Divergent beliefs about food safety and affordability in Nigeria.

Access to safe, affordable diets is paramount for improved nutritional outcomes. Yet, how do stakeholders perceive the binding constraints and requisite policy actions to increase food safety and affordability? Focusing on Nigeria, this paper uses best-worst scaling techniques applied to a survey of 200 government and agrifood system stakeholders to examine their policy beliefs on safety and affordability vis-à-vis the vegetable and fish value chains. We find that divergence among stakeholders is greater for food safety than affordability. While antibiotics overuse and toxin exposure, lack of knowledge, and weak legislation were identified by different stakeholders as the binding constraints for food safety, high costs of inputs and infrastructure, as well as security threats, were seen as common challenges for affordability across most, though not all, stakeholders for both value chains. Overall, the paper highlights the importance of beliefs in the agrifood system policymaking process and emphasizes the need to explore not only the existence but also the source of divergent beliefs among policy actors in greater depth.

Nigerians in poverty consume little wheat and wheat self-sufficiency programmes will not protect them from price shocks related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted calls for resource diversification and wheat self-sufficiency programmes in import-dependent regions. Here we show that this approach would have minimal impact on poor Nigerians as wheat constitutes only 4% of their total food consumption and 8% of their starchy staple consumption. In contrast, millets, rice, cassava and tubers are ten times more important-highlighting the need for careful consideration of country-context consumption patterns in response to external food system shocks.

Spatial analysis of aquatic food access can inform nutrition-sensitive policy.

Aquatic foods are critical for food and nutrition security in Malawi, but it is unclear which populations benefit from different aquatic foods and what factors shape food access. Spatial analysis of food flows across value chains from Lake Malawi to domestic consumers shows that usipa (Engraulicypris sardella) reaches more consumers than chambo (Oreochromis karongae) across all Malawi districts, particularly rural populations. Higher number of markets, nutrient content, and overall supply coupled with lower retail prices and volumes make usipa more accessible to consumers than chambo. Spatial analysis of food flows can guide policymakers towards supporting fisheries that reach vulnerable populations and designing interventions that enhance physical and economic access to fish.

Quiet Revolution by SMEs in the midstream of value chains in developing regions: wholesale markets, wholesalers, logistics, and processing.

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the midstream (processors, wholesalers and wholesale markets, and logistics) segments of transforming value chains have proliferated rapidly over the past several decades in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Their spread has been most rapid in the long transitional stage between the traditional and modern stages, when value chains grow long and developed with urbanization but are still fragmented, before consolidation. Most of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and parts of the other regions, are in that stage. The midstream SMEs in output and input value chains are important to overall food security (moving about 65% of food consumed in Africa and South Asia), and to employment, farmers, poor consumers, and the environment. The midstream of value chains is neglected in the national and international debates as the "missing middle." We found that it is indeed not missing but rather hidden from the debate, hence "the hidden middle." The midstream SMEs grow quickly and succeed where enabling conditions are present. Our main policy recommendations are to support the SMEs further growth through a focus on infrastructure investment, in particular on wholesale markets and roads, a reduction of policy-related constraints such as excessive red tape, and regulation for food safety and good commercial practices.

A revisit of farm size and productivity: Empirical evidence from a wide range of farm sizes in Nigeria.

The relationship between farm size and productivity has been studied extensively in the agricultural and development economics literature. However, most of the documented evidence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is based on samples of small-scale farms operating 5 ha or less, with very little evidence assessing this relationship over a wider range of farm sizes. This omission is especially important considering the rapid expansion of medium-scale farms in much of Africa. This study examines the farm size-productivity relationship over a range of farms between zero and 40 ha in Nigeria. It also tests whether there is heterogeneity in productivity within medium-scale farms depending on how they came into being. Using four measures of productivity, empirical estimates reveal a U-shaped relationship where the IR holds between zero and about 22 ha, turning positive afterwards. Moreover, when medium-scale farms are distinguished between those who were actively engaged as small-scale farmers and stepped up/expanded their scale of operation and those who were primarily in non-farm employment and later stepped into medium-scale farming, the turning point for farmers who stepped up into medium-scale farming is at 11 ha, in contrast to 22 ha for those who stepped in. Further evidence suggests heterogeneity in productivity within medium-scale farms depending on whether the owner-operators stepped up or stepped into medium-scale farming. These findings imply that policies facilitating smallholders' ability to expand the scale of their activities could contribute substantially to growth in farm productivity, agricultural commercialization and increase in food security in Nigeria, although in most areas only a small proportion of smallholder households are in a position to do this.

The Processed food revolution in African food systems and the Double Burden of Malnutrition.

African consumers have purchased increasing amounts of processed food over the past 50 years. The opportunity cost of time of women and men has increased as more of them work outside the home, driving them to buy processed food and food prepared away from home to save arduous home-processing and preparation labor. In the past several decades, this trend has accelerated with a surge on the supply side of the processing sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and large private companies making massive aggregate investments. Packaged, industrialized, ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a growing proportion of the processed food consumed. Also, in the past several decades, overweight and obesity have joined the long-standing high levels of stunting and wasting among children and extreme thinness among women of childbearing age. Together these phenomena have formed a double burden of malnutrition (DBM). The DBM has emerged as an important health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. The rise of the DBM and the increase in ultra-processed food consumption are linked. Policy makers face a dilemma. On the one hand, purchases of processed food are driven by long-term factors, such as urbanization, increased income, and employment changes, and thus policy cannot change the pursuit of convenience and labor-saving food. Moreover, much processed food, like packaged milk, is a boon to nutrition, and the processed food system is a major source of jobs for women. On the other hand, the portion (some 10-30%) of processed food that is ultra-processed is a public health challenge, and policy must address its detrimental effects on disease burden. The global experience suggests that double duty actions are most important as are selected policies focused on healthy weaning foods for addressing stunting and taxes on SSBs, nutrition labeling, and other measures can steer consumers away from unhealthy ultra-processed foods to addressing obesity and possibly child nutrition and stunting. We recommend that African governments consider these policy options, but note that the current extreme fragmentation of the processing sector, consisting of vast numbers of informal SMEs in sub-Saharan Africa, and the limited administrative/implementation capacity of many African governments require pursuing this path only gradually.

The occurrence and co-occurrence of aflatoxin and fumonisin along the maize value chain in southwest Nigeria.

Aflatoxin and fumonisin are two major foodborne mycotoxins: toxic chemicals produced by fungi that contaminate food commodities including maize, a staple food in sub-Saharan Africa. Aflatoxin causes liver cancer, and is associated with acute liver toxicity and immunotoxicity; while fumonisin is associated with neural tube defects in infants and esophageal cancer. Both mycotoxins have been associated with child growth impairment. Previous studies suggest that co-occurrence of these mycotoxins may have potentially synergistic toxicological effects. Despite health risks associated with co-occurrence of these mycotoxins, no study has examined their co-occurrence along key food supply chains in Africa. This study is the first report that examines the occurrence and co-occurrence of aflatoxins and fumonisins along the maize value chain in Nigeria. All samples were analyzed using LC-MS/MS. About 52% and 21% of the samples had aflatoxin levels above the Nigerian and US standards for human food, respectively. Though no regulatory limits exist for fumonisin in Nigeria, 13% of the samples contained fumonisin levels higher than the US regulatory limit. Aflatoxin levels can become dangerously high in maize stored four months or longer. Adequately addressing mycotoxin risk requires consideration of the entire maize value chain and associated value chains for food production.

Is increasing inorganic fertilizer use for maize production in SSA a profitable proposition? Evidence from Nigeria.

Inorganic fertilizer use across Sub-Saharan Africa is generally considered to be low. Yet, the notion that fertilizer use is too low is predicated on the assumption that it is profitable to use rates higher than currently observed. There is, however, limited empirical evidence to support this. Using a nationally representative panel dataset, this paper empirically estimates the profitability of fertilizer use for maize production in Nigeria. We find that fertilizer use in Nigeria is not as low as conventional wisdom suggests. Low marginal physical product and high transportation costs significantly reduce the profitability of fertilizer use. Apart from reduced transportation costs, other constraints such as soil quality, timely access to the product, and availability of complementary inputs such as improved seeds, irrigation and credit, as well as good management practices are also necessary for sustained agricultural productivity improvements.

Agricultural input credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Telling myth from facts.

Recent evidence shows that many Sub-Saharan African farmers use modern inputs, but there is limited information on how these inputs are financed. We use recent nationally representative data from four countries to explore input financing and the role of credit therein. A number of our results contradict "conventional wisdom" found in the literature. Our results consistently show that traditional credit use, formal or informal, is extremely low (across credit type, country, crop and farm size categories). Instead, farmers primarily finance modern input purchases with cash from nonfarm activities and crop sales. Tied output-labor arrangements (which have received little empirical treatment in the literature) appear to be the only form of credit relatively widely used for farming.