Occurrence of COVID-19 and serum per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances: A case-control study among workers with a wide range of exposures.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a broad class of synthetic chemicals; some are present in most humans in developed countries. Some studies suggest that certain PFAS may have immunotoxic effects in humans, which could put individuals with high levels of exposure at increased risk for infectious diseases such as COVID-19. We conducted a case-control study to examine the association between COVID-19 diagnosis and PFAS serum concentrations among employees and retirees from two 3 M facilities, one of which historically generated perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS). Participants completed enrollment and follow-up study visits in the Spring of 2021. Participants were categorized as cases if they reported a COVID-19 diagnosis or became sick with at least one symptom of COVID-19 when someone else in their household was diagnosed, otherwise they were categorized as a control. COVID-19 diagnosis was modeled in relation to concentration of serum PFAS measured at enrollment after adjusting for covariates. The analytic sample comprised 573 individuals, 111 cases (19.4%) and 462 controls (80.6%). In adjusted models, the odds ratio of COVID-19 was 0.94 per interquartile range (14.3 ng/mL) increase in PFOS (95% confidence interval 0.85, 1.04). Results for PFOA, PFHxS, and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) were similar. Other PFAS present at lower concentrations were examined as categorical variables (above the limit of quantification [LOQ], yes vs. no [referent category]), and also showed no positive associations. In our study, which used individual-level data and included people with high occupational exposure, the serum concentrations of all PFAS examined were not associated with an increased odds ratio for COVID-19. At this point, the epidemiologic data supporting no association of COVID-19 occurrence with PFAS exposure are stronger than those suggesting a positive association.

Re-expressing coefficients from regression models for inclusion in a meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis poses a challenge when original study results have been expressed in a non-uniform manner, such as when regression results from some original studies were based on a log-transformed key independent variable while in others no transformation was used. Methods of re-expressing regression coefficients to generate comparable results across studies regardless of data transformation have recently been developed. We examined the relative bias of three re-expression methods using simulations and 15 real data examples where the independent variable had a skewed distribution. Regression coefficients from models with log-transformed independent variables were re-expressed as though they were based on an untransformed variable. We compared the re-expressed coefficients to those from a model fit to the untransformed variable. In the simulated and real data, all three re-expression methods usually gave biased results, and the skewness of the independent variable predicted the amount of bias. How best to synthesize the results of the log-transformed and absolute exposure evidence streams remains an open question and may depend on the scientific discipline, scale of the outcome, and other considerations.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic data on vaccine response in relation to exposure to five principal perfluoroalkyl substances.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies of serum per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and antibody response to vaccines have suggested an adverse association, but the consistency and magnitude of this association remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this systematic review was to determine the size of the association between a doubling in perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) serum concentration and difference in loge antibody concentration following a vaccine, with a focus on five PFAS: perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA). DATA SOURCE: We conducted online searches of PubMed and Web of Science through May 17, 2022 and identified 14 eligible reports published from 2012 to 2022. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTIONS: We included studies conducted in humans, including mother-child pairs, which examined serum PFAS concentration in relation to serum concentration of antibody to a specific antigen following a vaccine. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: We used the risk of bias assessment for non-randomized studies of exposure and certainty assessment method proposed by Morgan et al. (2019). Using a multilevel meta-regression model, we quantitatively synthesized the data. RESULTS: The 14 reports represented 13 unique groups of subjects; the frequency of studies of a given antibody was Tetanus (n = 7); followed by Diphtheria (6); Measles (4); Rubella (3); Haemophilus influenzae type b and Influenza A H1N1 (2 each); and Hepatitis A, Hepatitis B, Influenza A H2N3, Influenza B, and Mumps (1 each). There were approximately 4,830 unique participants included in the analyses across the 14 reports. The models of coefficients between antibody concentration and the five principal PFAS showed homogeneity of associations across antibody types for each principal PFAS. In the models with all antibodies treated as one type, evidence of effect modification by life stage was present for PFOA and PFOS, and for consistency, all associations were evaluated for all ages and for children. The summary associations (coefficients for difference in loge[antibody concentration] per doubling of serum PFAS) with 95% confidence intervals that excluded zero ("statistical support"), and certainty of evidence ratings were as follows: for PFOA and all antibodies treated as one type in all ages, -0.06 (-0.10, -0.01; moderate) and in children, -0.10 (-0.16, -0.03; moderate); for Diphtheria in children, -0.12 (-0.23, -0.00; high); for Rubella in all ages, -0.09 (-0.17, -0.01; moderate), and for Tetanus in children, -0.12 (-0.24, -0.00; moderate). For PFOS the summary associations were, for all antibodies treated as one type in all ages, -0.06 (-0.11, -0.01; moderate) and in children, -0.10 (-0.18, -0.03; moderate); for Rubella in all ages, -0.09 (-0.15, -0.03; high) and in children, -0.12 (-0.20, -0.04; high). For PFHxS the summary associations were, for all antibodies treated as one type in all ages, -0.03 (-0.06, -0.00; moderate) and in children, -0.05 (-0.09, -0.00; low); and for Rubella in children, -0.07 (-0.11, -0.02; high). Summary associations for PFNA and PFDA did not have statistical support, but all PFAS studied tended to have an inverse association with antibody concentrations. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: Epidemiologic data on immunosuppression and five principal PFAS suggest an association, with support across antibodies against multiple types of antigens. Data on Diphtheria, Rubella, and Tetanus were more supportive of an association than for other antibodies, and support was greater for associations with PFOA, PFOS, and PFHxS, than for PFNA or PFDA. The data on any specific antibody were scarce. Confounding factors that might account for the relation were not identified. Nearly all studies evaluated were judged to have a low or moderate risk of bias.

Gestational thyroid hormone concentrations and risk of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal thyroid function plays an important role in foetal brain development; however, little consensus exists regarding the relationship between normal variability in thyroid hormones and common neurodevelopmental disorders, such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the association between mid-pregnancy maternal thyroid function and risk of clinically diagnosed ADHD in offspring. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study. Among children born 2003 or later, we randomly sampled singleton ADHD cases obtained through linkage with the Norwegian Patient Registry (n = 298) and 554 controls. Concentrations of maternal triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), T3-Uptake, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPO-Ab) were measured in maternal plasma, collected at approximately 17 weeks' gestation. Indices of free T4 (FT4i) and free T3 (FT3i) were calculated. We used multivariable adjusted logistic regression to calculate odds ratios and accounted for missing covariate data using multiple imputation. We used restricted cubic splines to assess non-linear trends and provide flexible representations. We examined effect measure modification by dietary iodine and selenium intake. In sensitivity analyses, we excluded women with clinically significant thyroid disorders (n = 73). RESULTS: High maternal T3 was associated with increased risk of ADHD (5th vs 1st quintile odds ratio  2.27, 95% confidence interval 1.21, 4.26). For FT4i, both the lowest and highest quintiles were associated with an approximate 1.6-fold increase in risk of ADHD, with similar trends found for T4. The FT4i association was modified by dietary iodine intake such that the highest risk strata were confined to the low intake group. CONCLUSIONS: Both high and low concentrations of maternal thyroid hormones, although within population reference ranges, increase the risk of ADHD in offspring. Increased susceptibility may be found among women with low dietary intake of iodine and selenium.

Is the cholesterol-perfluoroalkyl substance association confounded by dietary fiber intake?: a Bayesian analysis of NHANES data with adjustment for measurement error in fiber intake.

BACKGROUND: Serum concentrations of total cholesterol and related lipid measures have been associated with serum concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in humans, even among those with only background-level exposure to PFAS. Fiber is known to decrease serum cholesterol and a recent report based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) showed that PFAS and fiber are inversely associated. We hypothesized that confounding by dietary fiber may account for some of the association between cholesterol and PFAS. METHODS: We implemented a Bayesian correction for measurement error in estimated intake of dietary fiber to evaluate whether fiber confounds the cholesterol-PFAS association. The NHANES measure of diet, two 24-h recalls, allowed calculation of an estimate of the "true" long-term fiber intake for each subject. We fit models to the NHANES data on serum cholesterol and serum concentration of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and two other PFAS for 7,242 participants in NHANES. RESULTS: The Bayesian model, after adjustment for soluble fiber intake, suggested a decrease in the size of the coefficient for PFOA by 6.4% compared with the fiber-unadjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated that the association of serum cholesterol with PFAS was not substantially confounded by fiber intake.

Antibody response to COVID-19 vaccines among workers with a wide range of exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a broad class of synthetic chemicals; some are present in most humans in developed countries. Several studies have shown associations between certain PFAS, such as perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), and reduced antibody concentration after vaccination against diseases such as Tetanus. Recent studies have reported associations between COVID-19 occurrence and exposure to certain types of PFAS. However, studies of antibody concentration after COVID-19 vaccination in relation to PFAS serum concentrations have not been reported. We examined COVID-19 antibody responses to vaccines and PFAS serum concentrations among employees and retirees from two 3M facilities, one of which historically manufactured PFOS, PFOA, and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS). Participants completed enrollment and follow-up study visits in the Spring of 2021, when vaccines were widely available. In total 415 participants with 757 observations were included in repeated measures analyses. Log-transformed concentrations of anti-spike IgG and neutralizing antibodies were modeled in relation to concentration of PFAS at enrollment after adjusting for antigenic stimulus group (9 groups determined by COVID-19 history and number and type of vaccination) and other variables. The fully adjusted IgG concentration was 3.45 percent lower (95% CI -7.03, 0.26) per 14.5 ng/mL (interquartile range) increase in PFOS; results for neutralizing antibody and PFOS were similar. For PFOA, PFHxS, and perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), the results were comparable to those for PFOS, though of smaller magnitude. In our study data, the fully adjusted coefficients relating concentration of vaccine-induced antibodies to COVID-19 and interquartile range difference in serum concentration of PFOS, PFOA, PFHxS, and PFNA were inverse but small with confidence intervals that included zero. Our analysis showed that the coefficient for the four PFAS examined in detail was considerably affected by adjustment for antigenic stimulus group.

Why is elevation of serum cholesterol associated with exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in humans? A workshop report on potential mechanisms.

Serum concentrations of cholesterol are positively correlated with exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) in humans. The associated change in cholesterol is small across a broad range of exposure to PFOA and PFOS. Animal studies generally have not indicated a mechanism that would account for the association in humans. The extent to which the relationship is causal is an open question. Nonetheless, the association is of particular importance because increased serum cholesterol has been considered as an endpoint to derive a point of departure in at least one recent risk assessment. To gain insight into potential mechanisms for the association, both causal and non-causal, an expert workshop was held Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2019 to discuss relevant data and propose new studies. In this report, we summarize the relevant background data, the discussion among the attendees, and their recommendations for further research.

Using quantitative modeling tools to assess pharmacokinetic bias in epidemiological studies showing associations between biomarkers and health outcomes at low exposures.

Biomarkers of exposure can be measured at lower and lower levels due to advances in analytical chemistry. Using these sensitive methods, some epidemiology studies report associations between biomarkers and health outcomes at biomarker levels much below those associated with effects in animal studies. While some of these low exposure associations may arise from increased sensitivity of humans compared with animals or from species-specific responses, toxicology studies with drugs, commodity chemicals and consumer products have not generally indicated significantly greater sensitivity of humans compared with test animals for most health outcomes. In some cases, these associations may be indicative of pharmacokinetic (PK) bias, i.e., a situation where a confounding factor or the health outcome itself alters pharmacokinetic processes affecting biomarker levels. Quantitative assessment of PK bias combines PK modeling and statistical methods describing outcomes across large numbers of individuals in simulated populations. Here, we first provide background on the types of PK models that can be used for assessing biomarker levels in human population and then outline a process for considering PK bias in studies intended to assess associations between biomarkers and health outcomes at low levels of exposure. After providing this background, we work through published examples where these PK methods have been applied with several chemicals/chemical classes - polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDE) and phthalates - to assess the possibility of PK bias. Studies of the health effects of low levels of exposure will be improved by developing some confidence that PK bias did not play significant roles in the observed associations.

Serum Concentration of Antibodies to Mumps, but Not Measles, Rubella, or Varicella, Is Associated with Intake of Dietary Fiber in the NHANES, 1999-2004.

Treatment with prebiotics, a type of dietary fiber, was recently shown to increase antibody concentrations following influenza vaccination in a meta-analysis of clinical trials. In observational epidemiologic studies it is not possible to estimate intake of prebiotics, but quantifying intake of dietary fiber is routine. Our objective was to investigate the potential effect of dietary fiber on immunogenicity. We examined serum antibody concentrations (Measles, Mumps, Rubella, and Varicella) in relation to dietary fiber in more than 12,000 subjects in the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for the period 1999-2004. Data from one (1999-2002) or two (2003-2004) dietary recalls were used to calculate fiber intake. For Mumps the adjusted percentage difference in antibody concentration per interquartile range intake in energy-adjusted dietary fiber was 6.34% (95% confidence interval, 3.10, 9.68). Fiber from grain-based foods was more positively associated than fiber from other fiber-containing food groups. The association was slightly larger among subgroups with higher fiber intake, greater interquartile range in fiber intake, and less measurement error. Furthermore, based on the reliability of the diet recalls in 2003-2004, we calculated that the percentage difference per interquartile increment was substantially attenuated by measurement error. Dietary fiber may have a favorable influence on the immunogenicity of some vaccines or natural infections.

The concentration of several perfluoroalkyl acids in serum appears to be reduced by dietary fiber.

Fiber-rich food intake has been associated with lower serum concentrations of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in some studies and dietary fiber was related to lower serum PFAS in a recent study. Given the previous epidemiologic data suggesting that fiber might decrease serum PFAS concentrations, we examined the relation of serum PFAS concentrations to intake of dietary fiber in National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. We examined the PFAS-fiber association among 6482 adults who participated in the NHANES, 2005-2016. Fiber intake was estimated based on two 24-hour diet recalls. We adjusted the models for determinants of PFAS and potentially confounding factors such as intake of foods reported to increase PFAS exposure. Results were expressed as the percent difference in PFAS concentration per interquartile range (IQR) increase in fiber (and 95 percent confidence interval), and the NHANES sampling parameters were used to make the results generalizable to the U.S. The adjusted percent difference in perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) per IQR increase in fiber was -3.64 (-6.15, -1.07); for perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) was -6.69 (-9.57, -3.73), and for perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) was -8.36 (-11.33, -5.29). These results suggest that dietary fiber increases the gastrointestinal excretion of PFOA, PFOS, and PFNA. Because fiber also lowers serum cholesterol, in some studies of the serum cholesterol-PFAS relationship confounding by fiber may be worth evaluating.

Development of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) in pregnant rat and human.

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for di-isononyl phthalate (DiNP) was developed by adapting the existing models for di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and di-butylphthalate (DBP). Both pregnant rat and human time-course plasma and urine data were used to address the hydrolysis of DiNP in intestinal tract, plasma, and liver as well as hepatic oxidative metabolism and conjugation of the monoester and primary oxidative metabolites. Data in both rats and humans were available to inform the uptake and disposition of mono-isononyl phthalate (MiNP) as well as the three primary oxidative metabolites including hydroxy (7-OH)-, oxo (7-OXO)-, and carboxy (7-COX)-monoisononyl phthalate in plasma and urine. The DiNP model was reliable over a wide range of exposure levels in the pregnant rat as well as the two low exposure levels in humans including capturing the nonlinear behavior in the pregnant rat after repeated 750 mg/kg/day dosing. The presented DiNP PBPK model in pregnant rat and human, based upon an extensive kinetic dataset in both species, may provide a basis for assessing human equivalent exposures based upon either rodent or in vitro points of departure.

Prenatal exposure to organophosphate pesticides and brain morphology and white matter microstructure in preadolescents.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to organophosphate (OP) pesticides associate with impaired neurodevelopment in humans and animal models. However, much uncertainty exists about the brain structural alterations underlying these associations. The objective of this study was to determine whether maternal OP pesticide metabolite concentrations in urine repeatedly measured during gestation are associated with brain morphology and white matter microstructure in 518 preadolescents aged 9-12 years. METHOD: Data came from 518 mother-child pairs participating in the Generation R Study, a population-based birth cohort from Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Maternal urine concentrations were determined for 6 dialkylphosphates (DAPs) including 3 dimethyl (DM) and 3 diethyl (DE) alkyl phosphate metabolites, collected at early, mid, and late pregnancy. At child's age 9-12 years, magnetic resonance imaging was performed to obtain T1-weighted images for brain volumes and surface-based cortical thickness and cortical surface area, and diffusion tensor imaging was used to measure white matter microstructure through fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD). Linear regression models were fit for the averaged prenatal exposure across pregnancy. RESULTS: DM and DE metabolite concentrations were not associated with brain volumes, cortical thickness, and cortical surface area. However, a 10-fold increase in averaged DM metabolite concentrations across pregnancy was associated with lower FA (B = -1.00, 95%CI = -1.80, -0.20) and higher MD (B = 0.13, 95%CI = 0.04, 0.21). Similar associations were observed for DE concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first evidence that OP pesticides may alter normal white matter microstructure in children, which could have consequences for normal neurodevelopment. No associations were observed with structural brain morphology, including brain volumes, cortical thickness, and cortical surface area.

Pharmacokinetic bias analysis of an association between clinical thyroid disease and two perfluoroalkyl substances.

Exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) has been associated with the occurrence of thyroid disease in some epidemiologic studies. We hypothesized that in a specific epidemiologic study based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the association of clinical thyroid disease with serum concentration of PFOA and PFOS was due to reverse causality. Thyroid hormone affects glomerular filtration, which in turn affects excretion of PFOA and PFOS. We evaluated this by linking a model of thyroid disease status over the lifetime to a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of PFOA and PFOS. Using Monte Carlo methods, we simulated the target study population and analyzed the data using multivariable logistic regression. The target and simulated populations were similar with respect to age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum concentrations of PFOA and PFOS, and prevalence of clinical thyroid disease. The analysis showed little or no evidence of bias from the hypothesized mechanism. The largest bias was for the fourth quartile of PFOA in females, with an odds ratio of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90, 0.97). The reported odds ratio of clinical thyroid disease for this group was 1.63 (1.07, 2.47), and if it were corrected for the bias would have been 1.74 (1.14, 2.65). Our results suggest that little of the reported association in the target study was due to reverse causality.

Neonatal thyroid-stimulating hormone and association with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

BACKGROUND: Normal brain development is dependent on maternal, fetal and neonatal thyroid function. Measuring neonatal thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) 48-72 hours after birth screens for congenital hypothyroidism, allowing early treatment to avoid serious impairment. However, even within sub-clinical ranges, disrupted thyroid homeostasis during brain development has been linked to adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes, including attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). OBJECTIVES: To estimate the association between neonatal TSH below threshold for potential congenital hypothyroidism and subsequent ADHD diagnosis using a population-based birth cohort. METHODS: Children with a diagnosis of ADHD in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) were identified through linkage with the Norwegian Patient Registry using ICD-10 codes for hyperkinetic disorders. The study included 405 ADHD cases and 1,092 controls (born 2003-2008) with available neonatal TSH concentrations below 10 mU/L (cut-off for potential congenital hypothyroidism) measured in dried blood spots sampled 48-72 hours after birth. RESULTS: In multivariable, quintile models the relationship appeared to follow a U-shaped pattern with elevated odds ratios (OR) at lower and higher TSH levels. Among children with TSH in the lowest quintile, odds of ADHD was approximately 1.5-fold higher than children in the middle quintile (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.09, 2.34), which was driven by substantially elevated risk among girls, with no association among boys (Pinteraction = 0.02; girls OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.53, 6.30; boys OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.73, 1.84). CONCLUSIONS: ADHD risk appeared to be elevated among newborns with low TSH levels (i.e. with hyperthyroid status), and this association was mainly found among girls. Because our findings are suggestive of increased risk at very low TSH concentrations, where analytical accuracy is low, future studies should employ highly sensitive assays capable of accurate quantitation at very low concentrations. Also, larger studies are needed to investigate these associations at higher neonatal TSH concentrations where data are more widely distributed.

Birth weight and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid: a random-effects meta-regression analysis.

Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) is a ubiquitous environmental contaminant. Most people in developed countries have detectable serum concentrations. Lower birth weight has been associated with serum PFOS in studies world-wide, many of which have been published only recently. METHODS: To facilitate a causal assessment of the birth weight and PFOS association, we updated previous meta-analyses of the association and employed a method that facilitated inclusion of all available data in one analysis. Our analysis was based on observations from 29 studies. RESULTS: The random effects summary was -3.22 g/ng/ml (95% confidence interval [CI] = -5.11, -1.33). In a subgroup analysis stratified by when in pregnancy the PFOS concentration was measured, the summary for the early group was -1.35 (95% CI = -2.33, -0.37) and for the later group was -7.17 (95% CI = -10.93, -3.41). In a meta-regression model including a term for timing of blood draw, the intercept was slightly positive but essentially zero (0.59 g/ng/ml, 95% CI = -1.94, 3.11). In other words, the model indicated that when blood was drawn at the very beginning of pregnancy, there was essentially no relation of birth weight to PFOS. The results from the subgroup analyses differed from those from the model because the average gestational age at blood draw in the early group was 14 weeks, when bias would still be expected. A stronger inverse association in Asian studies was not completely explained by their blood draws being from later in pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence was weakly or not supportive of a causal association.

Quantitative bias analysis of the association between subclinical thyroid disease and two perfluoroalkyl substances in a single study.

Exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) has been associated with the occurrence of thyroid disease in some epidemiologic studies. We hypothesized that in a specific epidemiologic study based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the association of subclinical thyroid disease with serum concentration of PFOA and PFOS was due to reverse causality. Thyroid hormone affects glomerular filtration, which in turn affects excretion of PFOA and PFOS. We evaluated this by linking a model of thyroid disease status over the lifetime to physiologically based pharmacokinetic models of PFOA and PFOS. Using Monte Carlo methods, we simulated the target study population and analyzed the data using multivariable logistic regression. The target and simulated populations were similar with respect to age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, serum concentrations of PFOA and PFOS, and prevalence of subclinical thyroid disease. Our findings suggest that in the target study the associations with subclinical hypothyroidism were overstated and the results for subclinical hyperthyroidism were, in general, understated. For example, for subclinical hypothyroidism in men, the reported odds ratio per ln(PFOS) increase was 1.98 (95% CI 1.19-3.28), whereas in the simulated data the bias due to reverse causality gave an odds ratio of 1.19 (1.16-1.23). Our results provide evidence of bias due to reverse causality in a specific cross-sectional study of subclinical thyroid disease with exposure to PFOA and PFOS among adults.

Organophosphate pesticide metabolite concentrations in urine during pregnancy and offspring attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder and autistic traits.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to organophosphate (OP) pesticides has been associated with altered neuronal cell development and behavioral changes in animal offspring. However, the few studies investigating the association between prenatal OP pesticide exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes such as Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and autistic traits in children produced mixed findings. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the present study was to examine whether maternal urinary concentrations of OP pesticide metabolites are associated with ADHD and autistic traits in children participating in the Generation R Study, a population-based birth cohort from Rotterdam, the Netherlands. METHOD: Maternal concentrations of 6 dialkylphosphates (DAPs) were measured using gas chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry in urine samples collected at <18 weeks, 18-25 weeks, and > 25 weeks of gestation in 784 mother-child pairs. DAP metabolite concentrations were expressed as molar concentrations divided by creatinine levels and log10 transformed. ADHD traits were measured at ages 3, 6, and 10 years using the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) (n = 781) and autistic traits were measured at age 6 years using the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) (n = 622). First, regression models were fit for the averaged prenatal exposure across pregnancy. Second, we investigated associations for each collection phase separately, and applied a mutually adjusted model in which the effect of prenatal DAP concentrations from each time period on ADHD and autistic traits were jointly estimated. All associations were adjusted for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Median DAP metabolite concentration was 309 nmol/g creatinine at <18 weeks, 316 nmol/g creatinine at 18-25 weeks, and 308 nmol/g creatinine at >25 weeks of gestation. Overall, DAP metabolite concentrations were not associated with ADHD traits. For instance, a log10 increase in averaged total DAP concentrations across gestation was not associated with a lower ADHD score (-0.03 per SD 95 CI: -0.28 to 0.23). Similarly, no associations between maternal DAP concentrations and autistic traits were detected. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of maternal urinary DAP metabolite concentrations during pregnancy, we did not observe associations with ADHD and autistic traits in children. These are important null observations because of the relatively high background DAP concentrations across pregnancy, the relatively large sample size, and the 10-year follow-up of the offspring. Given the measurement error inherent in our OP pesticide exposure biomarkers, future studies using more urine samples are needed to accurately measure OP pesticide exposure over pregnancy in relation to ADHD and autistic traits.

A model of functional thyroid disease status over the lifetime.

Mathematical models of the natural history of disease can predict incidence rates based on prevalence data and support simulations of populations where thyroid function affects other aspects of physiology. We developed a Markov chain model of functional thyroid disease status over the lifetime. Subjects were in one of seven thyroid disease states at any given point in their lives [normal, subclinical hypothyroidism, overt hypothyroidism, treated thyroid disease (ever), subclinical hyperthyroidism, overt hyperthyroidism, and reverted to normal thyroid status]. We used a Bayesian approach to fitting model parameters. A priori probabilities of changing from each disease state to another per unit time were based on published data and summarized using meta-analysis, when possible. The probabilities of changing state were fitted to observed prevalence data based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012. The fitted model provided a satisfactory fit to the observed prevalence data for each disease state, by sex and decade of age. For example, for males 50-59 years old, the observed prevalence of ever having treated thyroid disease was 4.4% and the predicted value was 4.6%. Comparing the incidence rates of treated disease predicted from our model with published values revealed that 82% were within a 4-fold difference. The differences seemed to be systematic and were consistent with expectation based on national iodine intakes. The model provided new and comprehensive estimates of functional thyroid disease incidence rates for the U.S. Because the model provides a reasonable fit to national prevalence data and predicts thyroid disease status over the lifetime, it is suitable for simulating populations, thereby making possible quantitative bias analyses of selected epidemiologic data reporting an association of thyroid disease with serum concentrations of environmental contaminants.

Organophosphate Pesticide Metabolite Concentrations in Urine during Pregnancy and Offspring Nonverbal IQ at Age 6 Years.

BACKGROUND: Susceptibility to organophosphate (OP) pesticide neurotoxicity may be greatest during the prenatal period; however, previous studies have produced mixed findings concerning in utero OP pesticide exposure and child cognition. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to determine whether maternal urinary concentrations of OP pesticide metabolites are inversely associated with child nonverbal IQ at 6 y of age and to examine potential effect measure modification by the PON1 gene. METHODS: Data came from 708 mother­child pairs participating in the Generation R Study. Maternal urine concentrations of six dialkylphosphates (DAPs), collected at [Formula: see text], 18­25, and [Formula: see text] of gestation, were determined. Child nonverbal IQ was measured at 6 y of age using the Mosaics and Categories subtests from the Snijders-Oomen Nonverbal Intelligence Test-Revised. PON1 was determined in cord blood for 474 infants. Multiple linear regression models were fit to estimate the DAP-IQ associations and PON1 interactions. RESULTS: Overall, associations between child nonverbal IQ and maternal DAP concentrations were small and imprecise, and these associations were inconsistent across urine sampling periods. Howover, for a 10-fold difference in total DAP concentration for the [Formula: see text] of gestation samples, adjusted child nonverbal IQ was 3.9 points lower (95% CI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]). Heterogeneity in the DAP­IQ association by PON1 gene allele status was not observed ([Formula: see text]). CONCLUSIONS: Consistent evidence of an association between higher maternal urinary DAP concentrations and lower child IQ scores at 6 y of age was not observed. There was some evidence for an inverse relation of child nonverbal IQ and late pregnancy urinary DAPs, but the estimated association was imprecise. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3024.