Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

The panmixia paradigm of eastern Pacific olive ridley turtles revised: consequences for their conservation and evolutionary biology.

Previous studies of the olive ridley Lepidochelys olivacea population structure in the tropical eastern Pacific have indicated the existence of a single panmictic population ranging from Costa Rica to Mexico. This information has been used to design specific management measures to conserve primary nesting beaches in Mexico. However, little is known about olive ridleys in the Baja California Peninsula, their northernmost reproductive limit, where recent observations have shown differences in nesting female behaviour and size of hatchlings relative to other continental rookeries. We used mtDNA control region sequences from 137 turtles from five continental and four peninsular nesting sites to determine whether such differences correspond to a genetic distinction of Baja California olive ridleys or to phenotypic plasticity associated with the extreme environmental nesting conditions of this region. We found that genetic diversity in peninsular turtles was significantly lower than in continental nesting colonies. Analysis of molecular variance revealed a significant population structure (Phi ST = 0.048, P = 0.006) with the inclusion of peninsular samples. Our results: (i) suggest that the observed phenotypic variation may be associated with genetic differentiation and reproductive isolation; (ii) support the recent colonization of the eastern Pacific by Lepidochelys; (iii) reveal genetic signatures of historical expansion and colonization events; and (iv) significantly challenge the notion of a single genetic and conservation unit of olive ridleys in the eastern Pacific. We conclude that conservation measures for olive ridleys in Mexico should be revised to grant peninsular beaches special attention.