The Risk of Developing Disabling Crohn's Disease: Validation of a Clinical Prediction Rule to Improve Treatment Decision Making.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is characterized by the development of complications over the course of the disease. It is crucial to identify predictive factors of disabling disease, in order to target patients for early intervention. We evaluated risk factors of disabling CD and developed a prognostic model. METHODS: In total, 511 CD patients were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify demographic, clinical, and biological risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was developed in a subgroup of patients with noncomplicated CD (inflammatory pattern and no perianal disease). RESULTS: The rate of disabling CD within 5 years after diagnosis was 74.6%. Disabling disease was associated with gender, location of disease, requirement of steroids for the first flare, and perianal lesions. In the subgroup of patients (310) with noncomplicated CD, the rate of disabling CD was 80%. In the multivariate analysis age at onset <40 years (OR = 3.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52-7.90), extensive disease (L3/L4) (OR = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.18-6.06), smoking habit (OR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.03-4.27), requirement of steroids at the first flare (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.09-4.45), and albumin (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.36-0.96) were associated with development of disabling disease. The developed predictive nomogram based on these factors presented good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.723 (95% CI: 0.670-0.830). CONCLUSION: We identified predictive factors of disabling CD and developed an easy-to-use prognostic model that may be used in clinical practice to help identify patients at high risk and address treatment effectively.

Accuracy of the Ultra-Rapid Urease Test for diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori infection.

BACKGROUND: Rapid Urease Test (RUT) is a simple, cheap and relatively fast method for diagnosing Helicobacter pylori infection. It is therefore the preferred method used for patients undergoing gastroscopy. Most kits require 24h to give results. The new Ultra-Rapid Urease Test (URUT) kit by Biohit® requires less than 1h. OBJECTIVE: To determine URUT's diagnostic accuracy. METHOD: Prospective, blind, multi-centre study involving dyspeptic patients. One corpus biopsy and three antral biopsies were obtained during gastroscopy for standard histological analysis, RUT and URUT. The URUT result was checked after 1min, 5min, 30min and 60min and the RUT was checked over the course of 24h. Histology was used as the gold standard test. RESULTS: 144 patients were included, 68% female, with a mean age of 49 years old; 50% were H. pylori positive. RUT and URUT diagnoses were correct in 85.9% and 90% of the cases, respectively. The mean waiting time for a positive RUT result was 6h. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for RUT were, respectively, 82%, 90%, 89% and 84%. The URUT's results were similar (85%, 94%, 94% and 87%). These figures improved when patients taking PPIs were excluded (RUT: 86%, 91%, 93% and 83%; URUT: 91%, 94%, 96% and 89%). No statistically significant differences were found when comparing RUT and URUT distributions of correct diagnoses (McNemar's Test, p=0.3) but there was a tendency towards better results with the URUT. CONCLUSION: The URUT is equivalent to (or slightly better than) the traditional RUT in diagnosing H. pylori infection, and provides results in less than an hour.