No evidence for direct thermal carryover effects on starvation tolerance in the obligate blood-feeder, Glossina morsitans morsitans.

Thermal stress during development can prime animals to cope better with similar conditions in later life. Alternatively, negative effects of thermal stress can persist across life stages and result in poorer quality adults (negative carryover effects). As mean temperatures increase due to climate change, evidence for such effects across diverse taxa is required. Using Glossina morsitans morsitans, a species of tsetse fly and vector of trypanosomiasis, we asked whether (i) adaptive developmental plasticity allows flies to survive for longer under food deprivation when pupal and adult temperatures are matched; or (ii) temperature stress during development persists into adulthood, resulting in a greater risk of death. We did not find any advantage of matched pupal and adult temperature in terms of improved starvation tolerance, and no direct negative carryover effects were observed. There was some evidence for indirect carryover effects-high pupal temperature produced flies of lower body mass, which, in turn, resulted in greater starvation risk. However, adult temperature had the largest impact on starvation tolerance by far: flies died 60% faster at 31°C than those experiencing 25°C, consequently reducing survival time from a median of 8 (interquartile range (IQR) 7-9) to 5 (IQR 5-5.25) days. This highlights differences in temperature sensitivity between life stages, as there was no direct effect of pupal temperature on starvation tolerance. Therefore, for some regions of sub-Saharan Africa, climate change may result in a higher mortality rate in emerging tsetse while they search for their first blood meal. This study reinforces existing evidence that responses to temperature are life stage specific and that plasticity may have limited capacity to buffer the effects of climate change.

Mechanistic modelling of within-mosquito viral dynamics: Insights into infection and dissemination patterns.

Vector or host competence can be defined as the ability of an individual to become infected and subsequently transmit a pathogen. Assays to measure competence play a key part in the assessment of the factors affecting mosquito-borne virus transmission and of potential pathogen-blocking control tools for these viruses. For mosquitoes, competence for arboviruses can be measured experimentally and results are usually analysed using standard statistical approaches. Here we develop a mechanistic approach to studying within-mosquito virus dynamics that occur during vector competence experiments. We begin by developing a deterministic model of virus replication in the mosquito midgut and subsequent escape and replication in the hemocoel. We then extend this to a stochastic model to capture the between-individual variation observed in vector competence experiments. We show that the dose-response of the probability of mosquito midgut infection and variation in the dissemination rate can be explained by stochastic processes generated from a small founding population of virions, caused by a relatively low rate of virion infection of susceptible cells. We also show that comparing treatments or species in competence experiments by fitting mechanistic models could provide further insight into potential differences. Generally, our work adds to the growing body of literature emphasizing the importance of intrinsic stochasticity in biological systems.

Knockdown resistance allele L1014F introduced by CRISPR/Cas9 is not associated with altered vector competence of Anopheles gambiae for o'nyong nyong virus.

Knockdown resistance (kdr) alleles conferring resistance to pyrethroid insecticides are widespread amongst vector populations. Previous research has suggested that these alleles are associated with changes in the vector competence of mosquitoes for arboviruses and Plasmodium, however non-target genetic differences between mosquito strains may have had a confounding effect. Here, to minimise genetic differences, the laboratory Anopheles gambiae Kisumu strain was compared to a CRISPR/Cas9 homozygous kdr L1014F mutant Kisumu-kdr line in order to examine associations with vector competence for o'nyong nyong virus (ONNV). Mosquitoes were infected using either blood feeds or intrathoracic microinjections. There were no significant differences in the prevalence of virus in mosquito body parts between kdr mutant and wildtype lines from either oral or intrathoracic injection routes. The ONNV titre was significantly higher in the legs of the wildtype strain at 7dpi following intrathoracic microinjection, but no other significant differences in viral titre were detected. ONNV was not detected in the saliva of mosquitoes from either strain. Our findings from per os infections suggest that the kdr L1014F allele is not associated with altered infection prevalence for ONNV, a key component of vector competence.

Aedes albopictus invasion across Africa: the time is now for cross-country collaboration and control.

The distribution of Aedes albopictus across west Africa is well documented. However, little has been done to synthesise data and establish the current distribution of this invasive vector in central and east Africa. In this Viewpoint, we show that A albopictus is establishing across Africa, how this is potentially related to urbanisation, and how establishment poses risks of near-term increases in arbovirus transmission. We then use existing species distribution maps for A albopictus and Aedes aegypti to produce consensus estimates of suitability and make these estimates accessible. Although urban development and increased trade have economic and other societal gains, the resulting potential changes in Aedes-borne virus epidemiology require a discussion of how cross-country collaboration and mitigation could be facilitated. Failure to respond to species invasion could result in increased transmission of Aedes-associated pathogens, including dengue, chikungunya, and Rift Valley fever viruses.

A cross-sectional survey to establish Theileria parva prevalence and vector control at the wildlife-livestock interface, Northern Tanzania.

East Coast fever (ECF) in cattle is caused by the protozoan parasite Theileria parva, transmitted by Rhipicephalus appendiculatus ticks. In cattle ECF is often fatal, causing annual losses >$500 million across its range. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the natural host for T. parva but the transmission dynamics between wild hosts and livestock are poorly understood. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of T. parva in cattle, in a 30 km zone adjacent to the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania where livestock and buffalo co-exist, and to ascertain how livestock keepers controlled ECF and other vector-borne diseases of cattle. A randomised cross-sectional cattle survey and questionnaire of vector control practices were conducted. Blood samples were collected from 770 cattle from 48 herds and analysed by PCR to establish T. parva prevalence. Half body tick counts were recorded on every animal. Farmers were interviewed (n = 120; including the blood sampled herds) using a standardised questionnaire to obtain data on vector control practices. Local workshops were held to discuss findings and validate results. Overall prevalence of T. parva in cattle was 5.07% (CI: 3.70-7.00%), with significantly higher prevalence in older animals. Although all farmers reported seeing ticks on their cattle, tick counts were very low with 78% cattle having none. Questionnaire analysis indicated significant acaricide use with 79% and 41% of farmers reporting spraying or dipping with cypermethrin-based insecticides, respectively. Some farmers reported very frequent spraying, as often as every four days. However, doses per animal were often insufficient. These data indicate high levels of acaricide use, which may be responsible for the low observed tick burdens and low ECF prevalence. This vector control is farmer-led and aimed at both tick- and tsetse-borne diseases of livestock. The levels of acaricide use raise concerns regarding sustainability; resistance development is a risk, particularly in ticks. Integrating vaccination as part of this community-based disease control may alleviate acaricide dependence, but increased understanding of the Theileria strains circulating in wildlife-livestock interface areas is required to establish the potential benefits of vaccination.

The evolutionary dynamics of viruses: virion release strategies, time delays and fitness minima.

Viruses exhibit a diverse array of strategies for infecting host cells and for virion release after replication. Cell exit strategies generally involve either budding from the cell membrane or killing the host cell. The conditions under which either is at a selective advantage is a key question in the evolutionary theory of viruses, with the outcome having potentially important impacts on the course of infection and pathogenicity. Although a plethora of external factors will influence the fitness of either strategy; here, we focus just on the effects of the physical properties of the system. We develop theoretical approaches to assess the effects of the time delays between initial infection and virion release. We show that the length of the delay before apoptosis is an important trait in virus evolutionary dynamics. Our results show that for a fixed time to apoptosis, intermediate delays lead to virus fitness that is lower than short times to apoptosis - leading to an apoptotic strategy - and long times to apoptosis - leading to a budding strategy at the between-cell level. At fitness minima, selection is expected to be disruptive and the potential for adaptive radiation in virus strategies is feasible. Hence, the physical properties of the system are sufficient to explain the existence of both budding and virus-induced apoptosis. The fitness functions presented here provide a formal basis for further work focusing on the evolutionary implications of trade-offs between time delays, intracellular replication and resulting mutation rates.

Effects of maternal age and stress on offspring quality in a viviparous fly.

Many organisms show signs of deterioration with age in terms of survival and reproduction. We tested whether intraspecific variation in such senescence patterns can be driven by resource availability or reproductive history. We did this by manipulating nutritional stress and age at first reproduction and measuring age-dependent reproductive output in tsetse (Glossina morsitans morsitans), a viviparous fly with high maternal allocation. Across all treatments, offspring weight followed a bell-shaped curve with maternal age. Nutritionally stressed females had a higher probability of abortion and produced offspring with lower starvation tolerance. There was no evidence of an increased rate of reproductive senescence in nutritionally stressed females, or a reduced rate due to delayed mating, as measured by patterns of abortion, offspring weight or offspring starvation tolerance. Therefore, although we found evidence of reproductive senescence in tsetse, our results did not indicate that resource allocation trade-offs or costs of reproduction increase the rate of senescence.

Changes in Rice and Livestock Production and the Potential Emergence of Japanese Encephalitis in Africa.

The known distribution of Japanese encephalitis (JE) is limited to Asia and Australasia. However, autochthonous transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus was reported in Africa for the first time in 2016. Reasons for the current geographic restriction of JE and the circumstances that may permit emergence in non-endemic areas are not well known. Here, I assess potential changes in vector breeding habitat and livestock production in Africa that are conducive to JEV transmission, using open-source data available from the Food and Agriculture Organization between 1961 and 2019. For 16 of 57 countries in Africa, there was evidence of existing, or an increase in, conditions potentially suitable for JE emergence. This comprised the area used for rice production and the predicted proportion of blood meals on pigs. Angola, where autochthonous transmission was reported, was one of these 16 countries. Studies to better quantify the role of alternative hosts, including domestic birds in transmission in endemic regions, would help to determine the potential for emergence elsewhere. In Africa, surveillance programs for arboviruses should not rule out the possibility of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) circulation in areas with high pig or bird density coincident with Culicine breeding habitats.

Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe. METHODS: Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016. RESULTS: We produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000-2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.

Assessing the effect of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse abundance and trypanosome transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface in Serengeti, Tanzania.

In the absence of national control programmes against Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis, farmer-led treatment of cattle with pyrethroid-based insecticides may be an effective strategy for foci at the edges of wildlife areas, but there is limited evidence to support this. We combined data on insecticide use by farmers, tsetse abundance and trypanosome prevalence, with mathematical models, to quantify the likely impact of insecticide-treated cattle. Sixteen percent of farmers reported treating cattle with a pyrethroid, and chemical analysis indicated 18% of individual cattle had been treated, in the previous week. Treatment of cattle was estimated to increase daily mortality of tsetse by 5-14%. Trypanosome prevalence in tsetse, predominantly from wildlife areas, was 1.25% for T. brucei s.l. and 0.03% for T. b. rhodesiense. For 750 cattle sampled from 48 herds, 2.3% were PCR positive for T. brucei s.l. and none for T. b. rhodesiense. Using mathematical models, we estimated there was 8-29% increase in mortality of tsetse in farming areas and this increase can explain the relatively low prevalence of T. brucei s.l. in cattle. Farmer-led treatment of cattle with pyrethroids is likely, in part, to be limiting the spill-over of human-infective trypanosomes from wildlife areas.

Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe's Zambezi Valley: A mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains scant, and predictions rely largely on extrapolation of statistical correlations. We aimed to develop a mechanistic model to test whether recent increases in temperature in the Mana Pools National Park of the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe could account for the simultaneous decline of tsetse flies, the vectors of human and animal trypanosomiasis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model we developed incorporates the effects of temperature on mortality, larviposition, and emergence rates and is fitted to a 27-year time series of tsetse caught from cattle. These catches declined from an average of c. 50 flies per animal per afternoon in 1990 to c. 0.1 in 2017. Since 1975, mean daily temperatures have risen by c. 0.9°C and temperatures in the hottest month of November by c. 2°C. Although our model provided a good fit to the data, it cannot predict whether or when extinction will occur. CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests that the increase in temperature may explain the observed collapse in tsetse abundance and provides a first step in linking temperature to trypanosomiasis risk. If the effect at Mana Pools extends across the whole of the Zambezi Valley, then transmission of trypanosomes is likely to have been greatly reduced in this warm low-lying region. Conversely, rising temperatures may have made some higher, cooler, parts of Zimbabwe more suitable for tsetse and led to the emergence of new disease foci.

Geostatistical models using remotely-sensed data predict savanna tsetse decline across the interface between protected and unprotected areas in Serengeti, Tanzania.

Monitoring abundance is essential for vector management, but it is often only possible in a fraction of managed areas. For vector control programmes, sampling to estimate abundance is usually carried out at a local-scale (10s km2), while interventions often extend across 100s km2. Geostatistical models have been used to interpolate between points where data are available, but this still requires costly sampling across the entire area of interest. Instead, we used geostatistical models to predict local-scale spatial variation in the abundance of tsetse-vectors of human and animal African trypanosomes-beyond the spatial extent of data to which models were fitted, in Serengeti, Tanzania.We sampled Glossina swynnertoni and Glossina pallidipes >10 km inside the Serengeti National Park (SNP) and along four transects extending into areas where humans and livestock live. We fitted geostatistical models to data >10 km inside the SNP to produce maps of abundance for the entire region, including unprotected areas.Inside the SNP, the mean number of G. pallidipes caught per trap per day in dense woodland was 166 (± 24 SE), compared to 3 (±1) in grassland. Glossina swynnertoni was more homogenous with respective means of 15 (±3) and 15 (±8). In general, models predicted a decline in abundance from protected to unprotected areas, related to anthropogenic changes to vegetation, which was confirmed during field survey. Synthesis and applications. Our approach allows vector control managers to identify sites predicted to have relatively high tsetse abundance, and therefore to design and implement improved surveillance strategies. In East and Southern Africa, trypanosomiasis is associated with wilderness areas. Our study identified pockets of vegetation which could sustain tsetse populations in farming areas outside the Serengeti National Park. Our method will assist countries in identifying, monitoring and, if necessary, controlling tsetse in trypanosomiasis foci. This has specific application to tsetse, but the approach could also be developed for vectors of other pathogens.

Host-seeking efficiency can explain population dynamics of the tsetse fly Glossina morsitans morsitans in response to host density decline.

Females of all blood-feeding arthropod vectors must find and feed on a host in order to produce offspring. For tsetse-vectors of the trypanosomes that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis-the problem is more extreme, since both sexes feed solely on blood. Host location is thus essential both for survival and reproduction. Host population density should therefore be an important driver of population dynamics for haematophagous insects, and particularly for tsetse, but the role of host density is poorly understood. We investigate the issue using data on changes in numbers of tsetse (Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood) caught during a host elimination experiment in Zimbabwe in the 1960s. During the experiment, numbers of flies caught declined by 95%. We aimed to assess whether models including starvation-dependent mortality could explain observed changes in tsetse numbers as host density declined. An ordinary differential equation model, including starvation-dependent mortality, captured the initial dynamics of the observed tsetse population. However, whereas small numbers of tsetse were caught throughout the host elimination exercise, the modelled population went extinct. Results of a spatially explicit agent-based model suggest that this discrepancy could be explained by immigration of tsetse into the experimental plot. Variation in host density, as a result of natural and anthropogenic factors, may influence tsetse population dynamics in space and time. This has implications for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense transmission. Increased tsetse mortality as a consequence of low host density may decrease trypanosome transmission, but hungrier flies may be more inclined to bite humans, thereby increasing the risk of transmission to humans. Our model provides a way of exploring the role of host density on tsetse population dynamics and could be incorporated into models of trypanosome transmission dynamics to better understand how spatio-temporal variation in host density impacts trypanosome prevalence in mammalian hosts.

Sampling Design Influences the Observed Dominance of Culex tritaeniorhynchus: Considerations for Future Studies of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Transmission.

Mosquito sampling during Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV)-associated studies, particularly in India, has usually been conducted via aspirators or light traps to catch mosquitoes around cattle, which are dead-end hosts for JEV. High numbers of Culex tritaeniorhynchus, relative to other species, have often been caught during these studies. Less frequently, studies have involved sampling outdoor resting mosquitoes. We aimed to compare the relative abundance of mosquito species between these two previously used mosquito sampling methods. From September to December 2013 entomological surveys were undertaken in eight villages in a Japanese encephalitis (JE) endemic area of Bangladesh. Light traps were used to collect active mosquitoes in households, and resting boxes and a Bina Pani Das hop cage were used near oviposition sites to collect resting mosquitoes. Numbers of humans and domestic animals present in households where light traps were set were recorded. In five villages Cx. tritaeniorhynchus was more likely to be selected from light trap samples near hosts than resting collection samples near oviposition sites, according to log odds ratio tests. The opposite was true for Cx. pseudovishnui and Armigeres subalbatus, which can also transmit JEV. Culex tritaeniorhynchus constituted 59% of the mosquitoes sampled from households with cattle, 28% from households without cattle and 17% in resting collections. In contrast Cx. pseudovishnui constituted 5.4% of the sample from households with cattle, 16% from households with no cattle and 27% from resting collections, while Ar. subalbatus constituted 0.15%, 0.38%, and 8.4% of these samples respectively. These observations may be due to differences in timing of biting activity, host preference and host-seeking strategy rather than differences in population density. We suggest that future studies aiming to implicate vector species in transmission of JEV should consider focusing catches around hosts able to transmit JEV.

Role of underappreciated vectors in malaria transmission in an endemic region of Bangladesh-India border.

BACKGROUND: Despite the efforts of the National Malaria Control Programme, malaria remains as an important public health problem in Bangladesh, particularly in the south-eastern region bordering India. Successful malaria control strategies rely on a detailed understanding of the underlying causes of malaria transmission. Here, an entomological survey was conducted in a malaria endemic area of Bangladesh bordering India to investigate the Anopheles mosquito community and assess their Plasmodium infection status. METHODS: Monthly entomological collections were undertaken from October 2010 to September 2011 in five villages in the Matiranga sub-district, Khagrachari district in Bangladesh, bordering the Indian State of Tripura. CDC miniature light traps were placed inside houses to collect adult Anopheles mosquitoes. Following morphological and molecular identification of the female Anopheles mosquitoes collected, they were screened for circumsporozoite proteins (CSP) of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), Plasmodium vivax-210 (Pv-210) and Plasmodium vivax-247 (Pv-247), by ELISA to determine natural infection rates. Variation in Anopheles species composition, relative abundance and Plasmodium infection rates were analysed between sampled villages. RESULTS: A total of 2,027 female Anopheles were collected, belonging to 20 species. Anopheles nivipes was the most abundant species in our test villages during the peak malaria transmission season, and was observed sympatrically with An. philippinensis in the studied area. However, in the dry off-peak season, An. jeyporiensis was the most abundant species. Shannon's diversity index was highest in October (2.12) and evenness was highest in May (0.91). The CSP ELISA positive rate overall was 0.44%. Anopheles karwari (n=2), An. barbirostris s.l. (n=1) and An. vagus (n=1) were recorded positive for Pf. Anopheles kochi (n=1) was positive for Pv-210 while An. umbrosus (n=1), An. nivipes (n=1) and An. kochi (n=1) were positive for Pv-247. A mixed infection of Pf and Pv-247 was detected in An. barbirostris s.l.. CONCLUSION: High diversity of Anopheles species was observed in areas close to the international border where species that were underestimated for malaria transmission significantly outnumbered principal vector species and these may play a significantly heightened role in malaria transmission.

Toxoplasma gondii: prevalence in species and genotypes of British bats (Pipistrellus pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus).

Few studies have investigated Toxoplasma gondii infections in bat populations and none have reported its presence in protected British bat species. Using a collection of dead/euthanased bats collected from Lancashire, UK, two species of bats (Pipistrellus pipistrellus and Pipistrellus pygmaeus) were tested using a highly sensitive SAG1-PCR method specific for detection of T. gondii DNA (n=77; 71 P. pipistrellus and 6 P. pygmaeus). Whilst some potential bias may exist in the sampling strategy, an overall prevalence of 10.39% (±6.06%; 95%CI) was detected. All P. pipistrellus, were also genotyped using eleven polymorphic microsatellite loci to determine their local population structure. The programme STRUCTURE revealed that the majority of individuals (83%) were derived from one interbreeding population, and the remaining individuals (17%) had mixed genetic origins. There was no significant difference in the frequency of T. gondii infection or geographical distribution between subclusters. As all British bats are insectivorous, the routes of infection with T. gondii remain elusive. However, the locally large and panmictic gene pool suggests that intraspecies transmission could be applicable.

Gastrointestinal helminths of pipistrelle bats (Pipistrellus pipistrellus/Pipistrellus pygmaeus) (Chiroptera: Vespertilionidae) of England.

Although bats are one of the most successful and diverse of mammalian orders, studies that focus upon bat endoparasites are limited. To further knowledge of bat parasitology, pipistrelle bats (Pipistrellus pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus) were acquired from across the Greater Manchester and Lancashire region of England and examined for gastrointestinal helminths using morphological and molecular analyses. Sixty-eight of 90 adult/juvenile bats (76% prevalence) were infected with at least 1 species of helminth and mean helminth abundance was 48·2 (+/-7·0). All helminths were digenean trematodes and the following species were identified in 51 P. pipistrellus specimens (prevalence in parentheses): Lecithodendrium linstowi (80·4%), L. spathulatum (19·6%), Prosthodendrium sp. (35·3%), Plagiorchis koreanus (29·4%) and Pycnoporus heteroporus (9·8%). Statistical analyses, incorporating multifactorial models, showed that male bats exhibited a significantly more aggregated helminth distribution and lower abundance than females. Positive associations were observed between L. linstowi and L. spathulatum, Prosthodendrium sp. and P. heteroporus and between L. spathulatum and P. koreanus. A revised phylogeny of bat-associated Lecithodendriidae, incorporating novel L. spathulatum and Prosthodendrium sp. 28S rRNA sequences, separated the controversial clade formed by L. linstowi and P. hurkovaae. Further studies are likely to assist the understanding of bat-parasite/pathogen relationships, helminth infracommunity structures and phylogenetics.