Impact of socio-economic conditions and perinatal factors on risk of becoming a child looked after: a whole population cohort study using routinely collected data in Wales.

OBJECTIVES: Between 1997 and 2021, the number of children looked after (CLA) in Wales, UK, increased steadily, with stark inequalities. We aimed to assess how deprivation and maternal and child perinatal characteristics influence the risk of becoming CLA in Wales. STUDY DESIGN: We constructed a prospective longitudinal cohort of children born in Wales between April 2006 and March 2021 (n = 395,610) using linked administrative records. METHODS: Survival models examined the risk of CLA from birth by small-area deprivation and maternal and child perinatal characteristics. Population attributable fractions quantify the potential impact of action on modifiable risk factors. RESULTS: Children from the most deprived fifth of the population were 3.4 times more likely to enter care than those in the least deprived (demographic adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] 3.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.08, 3.74). Maternal mental health problems in pregnancy (fully aHR, 2.03, 95% CI 1.88, 2.19) and behavioural factors, such as smoking (aHR 2.46, 95% CI 2.34-2.60), alcohol problems (aHR 2.35, 95% CI 1.70-3.23) and substance use in pregnancy (aHR 5.72, 95% CI 5.03-6.51), as well as child congenital anomalies (aHR 1.46, 95% CI 1.16-1.84), low birth weight (aHR 1.28, 95% CI 1.17, 1.39) and preterm birth (aHR 1.16, 95% CI 1.06, 1.26), were associated with higher risk of CLA status. The risk of CLA in the population may be reduced by 35% (95% CI 0.33, 0.38) if children in the two most deprived fifths of the population experienced the conditions of those in the least deprived. CONCLUSIONS: Deprivation and perinatal maternal health are important modifiable risk factors for children becoming CLA. Our analysis provides insight into the mechanisms of intergenerational transfer of disadvantage in a vulnerable section of the child population and identifies targets for public health action.

Patterns of adversity and post-traumatic stress among children adopted from care.

BACKGROUND: Children adopted from care are more likely to have experienced early adversity, but little is known about the impact of early adversity on later post-traumatic stress (PTS) symptoms. OBJECTIVE: To investigate sub-groups of adversity in a sample of adopted children and examine the association with later PTS symptoms. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A study of British children adopted from care using social worker records (N = 374) and questionnaire-based longitudinal study of n = 58 children over 4-years post adoptive placement. METHODS: We used latent class analysis to identify subgroups of children based on commonalities in perinatal and postnatal adversity experienced prior to adoption and examined differences in PTS symptoms at 4-years post-placement between subgroups. RESULTS: Nearly one in five (19 %) children were in the clinical or borderline ranges for symptoms of PTS arousal, 14 % for PTS avoidance and 8 % for PTS intrusion. The 5-class solution fitted the data best, with one class characterized by children with a low probability of experiencing any adversity, one perinatal adversity class and three classes capturing different patterns of adversity. The multiple complex adversity class involving both perinatal and postnatal adversity had significantly higher symptoms of PTS avoidance and arousal than other sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence and complexity of PTS symptoms among adoptive children highlights the need for effective interventions considering different profiles of early adversity.

Change over time in adolescent smoking, cannabis use and their association: findings from the School Health Research Network in Wales.

BACKGROUND: While tobacco smoking has declined among UK youth in recent decades, cannabis use has begun to show some growth. Given their interrelationship, growth in cannabis use may act as a barrier to continued reduction in youth smoking. This paper assesses recent tobacco and cannabis use trends in Wales, and their association, to explore whether change in cannabis use might have impacted youth tobacco smoking prevalence. METHODS: Repeat cross-sectional data on tobacco and cannabis use were obtained from biennial Welsh Student Health and Wellbeing surveys between 2013 and 2019. Data were pooled and analysed using logistic regression with adjustment for school-level clustering. RESULTS: No change in regular youth tobacco smoking was observed between 2013 and 2019. In contrast, current cannabis use increased during this time, and cannabis users had significantly greater odds of regular tobacco smoking. After adjusting for change in cannabis use, a significant decline in youth tobacco smoking was observed (OR 0.95; 95% confidence intervals: 0.92, 0.97). CONCLUSION: Recent growth in cannabis use among young people in Wales may have offset prospective declines in regular tobacco smoking. Further reductions in youth smoking may require more integrated policy approaches to address the co-use of tobacco and cannabis among adolescents.